[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2916},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1380,"library-sidebar-dao":2382,"library-sidebar-models":2684},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1366,"date":1367,"description":1368,"extension":1369,"meta":1370,"navigation":1371,"order":1372,"path":1373,"seo":1374,"seoDescription":1368,"seoTitle":1375,"slug":1376,"stem":1377,"__hash__":1378,"_collection":1379},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fhe-huo-ren-xin\u002F1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin.md","1964 巴菲特致合伙人信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1353},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,25,28,31,34,172,182,189,196,199,339,342,345,348,354,540,547,554,559,755,758,761,764,767,770,773,776,779,782,785,788,791,794,797,858,861,864,867,870,873,876,879,882,955,958,965,972,979,982,985,988,995,1002,1009,1012,1015,1022,1029,1036,1039,1042,1045,1051,1054,1060,1063,1066,1072,1078,1081,1084,1087,1090,1093,1096,1099,1102,1156,1159,1162,1165,1168,1171,1174,1181,1184,1187,1190,1193,1196,1199,1202,1205,1208,1211,1214,1217,1283,1286,1289,1292,1295,1298,1301,1304,1307,1310,1313,1316,1323,1330,1337,1344,1347,1350],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1964-巴菲特致合伙人信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"巴菲特合伙基金有限公司 810 基威特广场 内布拉斯加州奥马哈市 31 号",[14,18,19],{},"1965 年 1 月 18 日",[21,22,24],"h3",{"id":23},"_1964-年业绩","1964 年业绩",[14,26,27],{},"1964 年，我们的整体收益是 4,846,312.37 美元，但以我们的基本衡量标准——道琼斯工业指数（以下简称”道指”）——来看，这一年在我们的历史中只能算中规中矩。合伙基金整体收益率为 27.8%，道指整体收益率为 18.7%，有限合伙人整体收益率为 22.3%。合伙基金领先道指 9.1 个百分点，有限合伙人领先道指 3.6 个百分点，这是自 1959 年以来我们领先优势最小的一年。（1959 年的道指涨幅与此大体相当。）",[14,29,30],{},"尽管如此，我并不沮丧。去年市场走势强劲，在这样的年份里，我们本来就难以胜过道指。总有一天道指会把我们远远甩在身后。从某种意义上说，1964 年不是那一年，我反倒有些庆幸。市场急涨给我们带来重重困难，如果 1965 年道指重演去年的行情，我们大概率很难跟上，更别说取得像样的领先了。",[14,32,33],{},"下表是道指收益率、普通合伙人分成前合伙基金收益率，以及有限合伙人收益率的逐年最新对比。",[35,36,37,56],"table",{},[38,39,40],"thead",{},[41,42,43,47,50,53],"tr",{},[44,45,46],"th",{},"年份",[44,48,49],{},"道指整体收益率 (1)",[44,51,52],{},"合伙基金收益率 (2)",[44,54,55],{},"有限合伙人收益率 (3)",[57,58,59,74,88,102,116,130,144,158],"tbody",{},[41,60,61,65,68,71],{},[62,63,64],"td",{},"1957",[62,66,67],{},"-8.4%",[62,69,70],{},"10.4%",[62,72,73],{},"9.3%",[41,75,76,79,82,85],{},[62,77,78],{},"1958",[62,80,81],{},"38.5%",[62,83,84],{},"40.9%",[62,86,87],{},"32.2%",[41,89,90,93,96,99],{},[62,91,92],{},"1959",[62,94,95],{},"20.0%",[62,97,98],{},"25.9%",[62,100,101],{},"20.9%",[41,103,104,107,110,113],{},[62,105,106],{},"1960",[62,108,109],{},"-6.2%",[62,111,112],{},"22.8%",[62,114,115],{},"18.6%",[41,117,118,121,124,127],{},[62,119,120],{},"1961",[62,122,123],{},"22.4%",[62,125,126],{},"45.9%",[62,128,129],{},"35.9%",[41,131,132,135,138,141],{},[62,133,134],{},"1962",[62,136,137],{},"-7.6%",[62,139,140],{},"13.9%",[62,142,143],{},"11.9%",[41,145,146,149,152,155],{},[62,147,148],{},"1963",[62,150,151],{},"20.6%",[62,153,154],{},"38.7%",[62,156,157],{},"30.5%",[41,159,160,163,166,169],{},[62,161,162],{},"1964",[62,164,165],{},"18.7%",[62,167,168],{},"27.8%",[62,170,171],{},"22.3%",[173,174,175],"blockquote",{},[176,177,178],"ol",{},[179,180,181],"li",{},"根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。",[173,183,184],{},[176,185,186],{},[179,187,188],{},"1957-61 年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。",[173,190,191],{},[176,192,193],{},[179,194,195],{},"1957-61 年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议扣除了普通合伙人分成，未计算有限合伙人的每月提现。",[14,197,198],{},"以下是累计或复合收益率：",[35,200,201,216],{},[38,202,203],{},[41,204,205,207,210,213],{},[44,206,46],{},[44,208,209],{},"道指整体收益率",[44,211,212],{},"合伙基金收益率",[44,214,215],{},"有限合伙人收益率",[57,217,218,228,242,256,270,284,298,312,326],{},[41,219,220,222,224,226],{},[62,221,64],{},[62,223,67],{},[62,225,70],{},[62,227,73],{},[41,229,230,233,236,239],{},[62,231,232],{},"1957-58",[62,234,235],{},"26.9%",[62,237,238],{},"55.6%",[62,240,241],{},"44.5%",[41,243,244,247,250,253],{},[62,245,246],{},"1957-59",[62,248,249],{},"52.3%",[62,251,252],{},"95.9%",[62,254,255],{},"74.7%",[41,257,258,261,264,267],{},[62,259,260],{},"1957-60",[62,262,263],{},"42.9%",[62,265,266],{},"140.6%",[62,268,269],{},"107.2%",[41,271,272,275,278,281],{},[62,273,274],{},"1957-61",[62,276,277],{},"74.9%",[62,279,280],{},"251.0%",[62,282,283],{},"181.6%",[41,285,286,289,292,295],{},[62,287,288],{},"1957-62",[62,290,291],{},"61.6%",[62,293,294],{},"299.8%",[62,296,297],{},"215.1%",[41,299,300,303,306,309],{},[62,301,302],{},"1957-63",[62,304,305],{},"94.9%",[62,307,308],{},"454.5%",[62,310,311],{},"311.2%",[41,313,314,317,320,323],{},[62,315,316],{},"1957-64",[62,318,319],{},"131.3%",[62,321,322],{},"608.7%",[62,324,325],{},"402.9%",[41,327,328,331,334,337],{},[62,329,330],{},"年化复合收益率",[62,332,333],{},"11.1%",[62,335,336],{},"27.7%",[62,338,171],{},[21,340,341],{"id":341},"基金公司",[14,343,344],{},"我们一直拿两只规模最大、通常持有 95-100% 股票的开放式基金，以及两只规模最大的分散投资封闭式基金，与合伙基金的业绩做对比。这四家公司——Massachusetts Investors Trust、Investors Stock Fund、Tri-Continental Corporation 和 Lehman Corporation——管理资产约 45 亿美元，持有约 55 万名股东，整个基金行业管理总规模约 300 亿美元，这四家应该能代表大多数基金公司。还有一些管理规模更大的投资顾问机构，它们的绝大多数业绩应该和这四家不相上下。",[14,346,347],{},"下表的目的是说明一点：道指并不是容易打败的。仅上述四家基金，它们的顾问团队每年收取的管理费就超过 800 万美元，而这在整个专业投资管理行业中只是九牛一毛。从这些高薪、备受尊崇的人才的公开打击率（batting average）来看，他们的业绩还略逊于这个无人打理的指数。",[14,349,350],{},[351,352,353],"strong",{},"年度业绩",[35,355,356,380],{},[38,357,358],{},[41,359,360,362,365,368,371,374,377],{},[44,361,46],{},[44,363,364],{},"Mass. Inv. Trust (1)",[44,366,367],{},"Investors Stock (1)",[44,369,370],{},"Lehman (2)",[44,372,373],{},"Tri-Cont. (2)",[44,375,376],{},"道指",[44,378,379],{},"有限合伙人",[57,381,382,401,421,441,461,481,501,520],{},[41,383,384,386,389,392,394,397,399],{},[62,385,64],{},[62,387,388],{},"-11.4%",[62,390,391],{},"-12.4%",[62,393,388],{},[62,395,396],{},"-2.4%",[62,398,67],{},[62,400,73],{},[41,402,403,405,408,411,414,417,419],{},[62,404,78],{},[62,406,407],{},"42.7%",[62,409,410],{},"47.5%",[62,412,413],{},"40.8%",[62,415,416],{},"33.2%",[62,418,81],{},[62,420,87],{},[41,422,423,425,428,431,434,437,439],{},[62,424,92],{},[62,426,427],{},"9.0%",[62,429,430],{},"10.3%",[62,432,433],{},"8.1%",[62,435,436],{},"8.4%",[62,438,95],{},[62,440,101],{},[41,442,443,445,448,451,454,457,459],{},[62,444,106],{},[62,446,447],{},"-1.0%",[62,449,450],{},"-0.6%",[62,452,453],{},"2.5%",[62,455,456],{},"2.8%",[62,458,109],{},[62,460,115],{},[41,462,463,465,468,471,474,477,479],{},[62,464,120],{},[62,466,467],{},"25.6%",[62,469,470],{},"24.9%",[62,472,473],{},"23.6%",[62,475,476],{},"22.5%",[62,478,123],{},[62,480,129],{},[41,482,483,485,488,491,494,497,499],{},[62,484,134],{},[62,486,487],{},"-9.8%",[62,489,490],{},"-13.4%",[62,492,493],{},"-14.4%",[62,495,496],{},"-10.0%",[62,498,137],{},[62,500,143],{},[41,502,503,505,507,510,513,516,518],{},[62,504,148],{},[62,506,95],{},[62,508,509],{},"16.5%",[62,511,512],{},"23.7%",[62,514,515],{},"18.3%",[62,517,151],{},[62,519,157],{},[41,521,522,524,527,530,533,536,538],{},[62,523,162],{},[62,525,526],{},"15.9%",[62,528,529],{},"14.3%",[62,531,532],{},"13.6%",[62,534,535],{},"12.6%",[62,537,165],{},[62,539,171],{},[173,541,542],{},[176,543,544],{},[179,545,546],{},"计算包括资产价值变化以及当年持有人获得的分红。",[173,548,549],{},[176,550,551],{},[179,552,553],{},"来源：1964 年穆迪银行与金融手册（Moody’s Bank & Finance Manual）1957-63 年数据。1964 年数据为估算值。",[14,555,556],{},[351,557,558],{},"复合收益率",[35,560,561,579],{},[38,562,563],{},[41,564,565,567,569,571,573,575,577],{},[44,566,46],{},[44,568,364],{},[44,570,367],{},[44,572,370],{},[44,574,373],{},[44,576,376],{},[44,578,379],{},[57,580,581,597,617,636,656,676,696,716,736],{},[41,582,583,585,587,589,591,593,595],{},[62,584,64],{},[62,586,388],{},[62,588,391],{},[62,590,388],{},[62,592,396],{},[62,594,67],{},[62,596,73],{},[41,598,599,601,604,607,610,613,615],{},[62,600,232],{},[62,602,603],{},"26.4%",[62,605,606],{},"29.2%",[62,608,609],{},"24.7%",[62,611,612],{},"30.0%",[62,614,235],{},[62,616,241],{},[41,618,619,621,624,627,630,632,634],{},[62,620,246],{},[62,622,623],{},"37.8%",[62,625,626],{},"42.5%",[62,628,629],{},"34.8%",[62,631,84],{},[62,633,249],{},[62,635,255],{},[41,637,638,640,643,646,649,652,654],{},[62,639,260],{},[62,641,642],{},"36.4%",[62,644,645],{},"41.6%",[62,647,648],{},"38.2%",[62,650,651],{},"44.8%",[62,653,263],{},[62,655,269],{},[41,657,658,660,663,666,669,672,674],{},[62,659,274],{},[62,661,662],{},"71.3%",[62,664,665],{},"76.9%",[62,667,668],{},"70.8%",[62,670,671],{},"77.4%",[62,673,277],{},[62,675,283],{},[41,677,678,680,683,686,689,692,694],{},[62,679,288],{},[62,681,682],{},"54.5%",[62,684,685],{},"53.2%",[62,687,688],{},"46.2%",[62,690,691],{},"59.7%",[62,693,291],{},[62,695,297],{},[41,697,698,700,703,706,709,712,714],{},[62,699,302],{},[62,701,702],{},"85.4%",[62,704,705],{},"78.5%",[62,707,708],{},"80.8%",[62,710,711],{},"88.9%",[62,713,305],{},[62,715,311],{},[41,717,718,720,723,726,729,732,734],{},[62,719,316],{},[62,721,722],{},"114.9%",[62,724,725],{},"104.0%",[62,727,728],{},"105.4%",[62,730,731],{},"112.7%",[62,733,319],{},[62,735,325],{},[41,737,738,740,743,745,748,751,753],{},[62,739,330],{},[62,741,742],{},"10.0%",[62,744,73],{},[62,746,747],{},"9.4%",[62,749,750],{},"9.9%",[62,752,333],{},[62,754,171],{},[14,756,757],{},"年复一年看到这张表，合伙人都在问我：“大型基金的经理人才智超群，他们有（1）聪明勤奋的下属；（2）几乎用之不竭的资源；（3）深厚广博的商业人脉；（4）加在一起长达数百年的投资经验——最后业绩怎么能做成这样？”说到”投资经验加到一起长达数百年”，我想起了这么一个段子：有个人去面试，说自己有 20 年从业经验，他前任老板纠正说——不是”20 年的从业经验”，而是”1 年的经验，重复了 20 遍”。",[14,759,760],{},"这个问题意义重大。300 亿美元的 1% 就是 3 亿美元，按理说基金经理和广大投资者都应该认真研究一下。令人匪夷所思的是，华尔街汗牛充栋的文献中，关于这个问题的研究几乎一片空白；各类证券分析师协会的会议、论坛、研讨会上，关于这个问题的探讨也寥寥无几。在我看来，无论哪家投资管理机构，在对美国各大公司的管理能力和经营业绩品头论足之前，都应该先好好审视一下自己的方法和业绩。",[14,762,763],{},"在大多数情况下，大基金跑不赢甚至跑不平无人管理的指数，绝对不是因为基金经理的能力或品行有问题。我把这个现象的主要原因归结为以下几点：（1）群体决策——这或许是我的偏见——我认为，只要是一个群体，所有成员共同参与决策，投资管理工作就几乎不可能达到一流水平；（2）跟随其他声誉卓著的大型机构的倾向，无论是策略还是部分投资组合；（3）机构框架的束缚——做到平均水平很”安全”，而特立独行对个人的回报与承担的风险完全不成比例；（4）僵化固守某些不理性的分散投资策略；最后一点，也是最重要的一点：（5）惯性。",[14,765,766],{},"也许我的这些评论有失公允，也许就连上面的统计对比本身也不公平。我们的投资组合和方式与表格中的基金公司都迥然不同。但是，我相信无论是我们的合伙人，还是大基金的投资者，大家有一个共同点——他们都认为自己的资产管理人追求同一个目标：通过持续投资股票，在将资金永久损失的风险控制在最低限度的同时，实现长期资本回报率的最大化。对于我们大多数合伙人来说，如果不把资金投到合伙基金，其他的选择大概就是基金公司等，获得与它们相近的收益率。因此，我认为拿大基金的业绩来检验我们自己，是很有意义的。",[14,768,769],{},"毫无疑问，基金公司、投资顾问、信托部门等为投资者提供了不可或缺的服务，包括：实现足够的分散投资、坚持长期视角、简化投资决策和操作流程，以及最重要的——帮助投资者避开那些散户容易坠入的低级陷阱。绝大多数机构在宣传资料中着力强调专业管理，公众自然会以为他们保证取得超额收益，但事实上几乎没有哪家机构做出过这样的具体承诺。",[14,771,772],{},"各位合伙人，我在这里向大家保证：我现在认为上述业绩对比有意义，将来无论发生什么，我都会坚持同样的看法。同时，如果你认为这个标准不合适，请现在就告诉我，并提出其他标准——标准要事先定好，不能等到事后再说。",[14,774,775],{},"还有一个想法——在上面的表格里，我没有列出全世界使用最广泛的投资顾问那一列：自我管理。人们很在意自己的体重、高尔夫球杆数、汽油账单，却刻意回避对自己投资管理水平的量化评估——而他们服务的客户可是全世界最重要的一个人：他们自己。客观评估 Massachusetts Investors Trust 或 Lehman Corporation 等基金的业绩，意义或许只是学术上的。客观评估实际管理你资金的那个人的表现——即使那个人就是你自己——意义是真金白银的。",[21,777,778],{"id":778},"关于保守",[14,780,781],{},"看到上面大基金的业绩，有人可能会问：“这些基金业绩是差一些，但它们的投资是不是比合伙基金更保守？”你要是去问大基金的经理，他们会完全坦诚地告诉你：他们更保守。要是你去问 100 位分析师，我相信绝大多数人也会站在基金公司那边。我不同意。我 90% 以上的净资产都在合伙基金里，我的很多亲戚也在合伙基金里有投资，当然，这只能说明我的诚意，证明不了我的投资更保守。",[14,783,784],{},"没错，与我们相比，大基金的投资方式更符合常规。很多人把符合常规等同于保守。我认为这种想法是错的。一种投资方式保守与否，与是否符合常规无关。",[14,786,787],{},"真正的保守投资，来自正确的前提、准确的事实和合理的逻辑。遵循这三点做出的决定，有时与常规相符，但更多时候是与常规背道而驰的。在世界的某个角落，平坦地球学会（Flat Earth Society）大概还在按时开会呢。",[14,789,790],{},"我们不会因为重要的人、能言善辩的人，或大多数人赞同我们，而感到踏实。也不会因为他们不赞同，而感到不安。民意调查替代不了独立思考。我们真正释然一笑的时候，是遇上一个我们能看懂的机会——事实清楚明了，该怎么做一眼就能看出来。遇到这种情况，不管是常规还是非常规，不管别人同意还是反对，我们都觉得自己是在保守地投资。",[14,792,793],{},"上述论断主观色彩很浓。没错。大家当然希望我给出客观的分析。我也愿意。如何合理评估既往投资策略是否保守？我的建议是：研究市场下跌时的业绩表现。表格中只有三个市场下跌年份，而且很不凑巧（仅就这个检验目的而言），都是温和下跌，力度有限。但即便如此，在这三年里，我们的业绩都明显优于更常规的投资组合。",[14,795,796],{},"把这三年连在一起，累计业绩如下：",[35,798,799,809],{},[38,800,801],{},[41,802,803,806],{},[44,804,805],{},"基金",[44,807,808],{},"三年累计收益率",[57,810,811,819,826,834,842,850],{},[41,812,813,816],{},[62,814,815],{},"Tri-Continental Corp.",[62,817,818],{},"-9.7%",[41,820,821,823],{},[62,822,376],{},[62,824,825],{},"-20.6%",[41,827,828,831],{},[62,829,830],{},"Mass. Investors Trust",[62,832,833],{},"-20.9%",[41,835,836,839],{},[62,837,838],{},"Lehman Corp.",[62,840,841],{},"-22.3%",[41,843,844,847],{},[62,845,846],{},"Investors Stock Fund",[62,848,849],{},"-24.6%",[41,851,852,855],{},[62,853,854],{},"巴菲特有限合伙人",[62,856,857],{},"+45.0%",[14,859,860],{},"我们不认为这个对比极其重要，但它能说明一些问题。这总比那种”我们持有 AT&T、通用电气（General Electric）、IBM 和通用汽车（General Motors），所以很保守”（完全不谈买入价格）的说法更有说服力。总之，评估任何投资方式或资产管理人（包括自我管理）是否保守，应以合理的客观标准为依据。市场下跌期间的业绩表现，是一个行之有效的检验方法。",[21,862,863],{"id":863},"复利的喜悦",[14,865,866],{},"前几年信中只讲当代投资案例，有合伙人反映意犹未尽，希望能深入探讨跨越数个世纪的投资策略，以满足他们对投资智慧的渴望。于是，就有了这一节。",[14,868,869],{},"在之前两次对金融智慧神话的探讨中，我们分析了伊莎贝拉女王（赞助哥伦布远洋航行）和弗朗西斯一世（购买名画《蒙娜丽莎》）所谓精明的投资，其实蠢到了家。有些人为这两位的决策辩护，说来说去不过是感情用事。面对我们的复利表，这些辩护全都不堪一击。",[14,871,872],{},"不过有一个质疑还算中肯：有人说，我在这一节里只会拿历史上的理财低能儿开刀，全是负面案例。挑战来了——能不能举一个令人叹服的理财案例，让它的光辉世代流传，成为永久的标杆？",[14,874,875],{},"一个故事脱颖而出。那就是曼哈顿印第安人以精明的商业眼光名垂青史的传奇：1626 年，他们把曼哈顿岛卖给了那个出名的大手大脚的冤大头彼得·米努伊特（Peter Minuit）。据我所知，他们最后到手的是 24 美元。米努伊特换来了约 57.8 平方公里的土地，相当于约 621,688,320 平方英尺。参照可比交易，精确估值颇有难度，但以每平方英尺 20 美元估算，曼哈顿岛当前的土地价值约为 12,433,766,400 美元（约 124 亿美元）。外行乍一看，可能觉得米努伊特这笔买卖不亏。然而，印第安人只要实现每年 6.5% 的收益率（部落基金的销售代表肯定敢向他们承诺这个数字），就能笑到最后。按 6.5% 的年收益率，经过 338 年，24 美元会变成 42,105,772,800 美元（421 亿美元）。如果他们的收益率再挤出半个百分点达到 7%，现在的价值就是 2,050 亿美元。",[14,877,878],{},"说完了。",[14,880,881],{},"有的合伙人考虑投资策略时可能着眼较短。方便起见，我们照例列出 100,000 美元在不同收益率下复利累积的结果（以下数据不含 10 万本金）：",[35,883,884,902],{},[38,885,886],{},[41,887,888,891,894,897,900],{},[44,889,890],{},"4%",[44,892,893],{},"8%",[44,895,896],{},"12%",[44,898,899],{},"16%",[44,901],{},[57,903,904,921,938],{},[41,905,906,909,912,915,918],{},[62,907,908],{},"10 年",[62,910,911],{},"$48,024",[62,913,914],{},"$115,892",[62,916,917],{},"$210,584",[62,919,920],{},"$341,143",[41,922,923,926,929,932,935],{},[62,924,925],{},"20 年",[62,927,928],{},"$119,111",[62,930,931],{},"$366,094",[62,933,934],{},"$864,627",[62,936,937],{},"$1,846,060",[41,939,940,943,946,949,952],{},[62,941,942],{},"30 年",[62,944,945],{},"$224,337",[62,947,948],{},"$906,260",[62,950,951],{},"$2,895,970",[62,953,954],{},"$8,484,940",[14,956,957],{},"从这个表格中可以看出三个有利于财富积累的因素：",[173,959,960],{},[176,961,962],{},[179,963,964],{},"寿命长（在金融大牛的行话里，这个叫”玛士撒拉效应”（Methuselah Technique）——玛士撒拉是《圣经》中据称活了 969 岁的先祖）",[173,966,967],{},[176,968,969],{},[179,970,971],{},"复合增长率高",[173,973,974],{},[176,975,976],{},[179,977,978],{},"上述两者兼而有之（本文作者特别推荐）",[14,980,981],{},"还请注意：年化收益率提高区区几个百分点，最终结果的差距却极为惊人。这正是我们态度的根源所在——我们希望能大幅超越平均投资收益，但同时也深知，高于平均水平的每一个百分点都有实实在在的价值。",[21,983,984],{"id":984},"我们的目标",[14,986,987],{},"大家会注意到，上面的表格里没有列出合伙基金过去八年平均 27.7% 的收益率，也没有有限合伙人平均 22.3% 的收益率。如此高的收益率在较长时间内根本无法持续，原因如下（别担心，我不会为了验证这个预言，而在投资中”裹足不前”）：",[173,989,990],{},[176,991,992],{},[179,993,994],{},"按照这么高的收益率复合增长，任何规模可观的资金都会以惊人的速度膨胀，迅速逼近国债规模。",[173,996,997],{},[176,998,999],{},[179,1000,1001],{},"合伙基金成立这八年以来，由于股票整体价值重估，股票投资实现了很高的整体收益率，这个水平在未来数十年无法持续。在我们基金的短短历史中，道指收益率是 11.1%。我认为把时间拉长到二三十年，道指更合理的长期年均收益率应该在 6%-7% 之间。这一个因素就会把我们的年化复合收益率拉低约 4 个百分点。只要 1965 年道指下跌 20.5%，它九年的平均收益率就会降至 7%。对于这样幅度的下跌，甚至更大的下跌，长期持有股票的投资者都应该早有思想准备。如果你持有的股票（比如你在合伙基金中的权益）市值下跌 20% 或 30%，你就会遭受情感创伤或陷入财务困境，那你就不适合投资股票。借用”诗人”哈里·杜鲁门（Harry Truman）的话说：“受不了热，就别进厨房。”（If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.）最好在进”厨房”之前先想清楚。",[173,1003,1004],{},[176,1005,1006],{},[179,1007,1008],{},"我们认为，从长期来看，不可能始终保持合伙基金领先道指 16.6 个百分点的优势，或有限合伙人领先道指 11.2 个百分点的优势。合伙基金已经连续八年跑赢道指，尽管其中有一年扣除利润提成后，有限合伙人没能跑赢。我们肯定会有合伙基金落后于道指的年份，而且肯定不止一年。发生这种情况时，我作为普通合伙人一定会气得咬牙切齿（希望各位有限合伙人不要太懊恼）。届时，我们的平均相对优势会大幅下降。我也相信，有些年份我们仍然会取得明显的领先。迄今为止，我们没有一年的业绩是平庸或糟糕的，这让我们的平均收益率显得很高，但期望这种好运永久持续显然是不现实的。",[14,1010,1011],{},"那么，我们预期的目标是什么？当然，我下面说的基本都是猜测。我的投资理念中有一个核心观点：预测往往能让人看清预测者的弱点，却未必能看清未来。",[14,1013,1014],{},"尽管如此，各位是我的合伙人，哪怕我的预期未必可靠，我也有义务如实相告。以下是我对长期前景的预期：",[173,1016,1017],{},[176,1018,1019],{},[179,1020,1021],{},"道指长期整体收益率（含股息）平均约为每年 7%，但各年振幅极大——极端情况下可能跌 40% 或涨 50%，大多数年份在跌 10% 到涨 20% 之间。",[173,1023,1024],{},[176,1025,1026],{},[179,1027,1028],{},"扣除普通合伙人分成之前，合伙基金长期年均领先道指约 10 个百分点——领先优势同样剧烈波动：形势不利时可能落后 10 个百分点，一切顺风顺水时可能领先 25 个百分点。",[173,1030,1031],{},[176,1032,1033],{},[179,1034,1035],{},"综合以上两点，合伙基金的长期年均收益率约为 17%，有限合伙人约为 14%。各年收益率会相差悬殊，具体振幅取决于（1）和（2）两个变量的相互作用。",[14,1037,1038],{},"我要再强调一遍：以上只是猜测，其中个人利益和自我等因素的影响不可小觑。对金融历史有所了解的人都清楚，这类预测往往大错特错。这些内容或许不该写进这封信，但这是合伙人经常、也理应提出的问题。我们合伙基金的所有成员都非常关心长期预期收益率，我有责任白纸黑字地写下我们的目标，哪怕将来这会让我显得愚不可及。我的要求是很严格的——我认为所有投资管理人，无论是券商、投资顾问、信托部门还是基金公司，都应该开诚布公，明确说明自己设定的目标是什么，以及如何衡量自己是否达到了这个目标。",[21,1040,1041],{"id":1041},"我们的投资方法",[14,1043,1044],{},"在以前的信中，我一直把我们的投资分为三类。现在我觉得分成四类更合适。新增的类别是”低估类（相对低估）“（Generals Relatively Undervalued）。其一，我们的”低估类”投资中一直存在这个细微差别，只是一直没有单独体现；其二，这个小类别已经成长为整体投资组合中越来越重要的一部分。迄今为止，此类投资的收益率十分出色，值得投入大量时间和精力寻找更多机会。同时，我们已经在这个类别中形成了一套独具特色的全新投资方法并付诸实践，有助于改善此类投资的预期收益和稳定性。目前，我们的四类投资如下：",[14,1046,1047,1050],{},[351,1048,1049],{},"1. “低估类（基于产业资本视角）”（Generals-Private Owner Basis）","——此类主要由定量分析判断整体低估的股票构成，但也特别重视定性因素。这类股票通常看不出有什么短期催化剂能推动股价上涨，既不光鲜，也没有市场追捧。它们唯一的优点就是价格便宜——经过审慎分析可以看出，公司的市值远低于产业资本所能给予的估值。我重申一遍：定量是第一位的、是根本，但定性同样重要。我们喜欢优秀的管理层，喜欢好行业，也希望原本沉寂的管理层或股东群体里有一定的”催化剂”能激起变化。但最根本的，我们要买得值。",[14,1052,1053],{},"在此类投资中，我们很多时候都能做到”两手准备，进退有余”——最终要么外部因素触发股价上涨，要么我们以低廉价格取得公司控股权。前者属于绝大多数情况，后者则是其他类型投资所不具备的一道保险。在 1964 年中期报告中，我们提到了三家我们是最大股东的公司，我们一直在继续加大这三家公司的仓位。这三家公司创造基本面价值的速度都让我非常满意。对其中两家，我们完全是被动投资者；对第三家，我们只是略微采取了一些主动举措。对这三家公司，我们大概率都不会主动介入政策制定，但如有必要，我们随时准备出手。",[14,1055,1056,1059],{},[351,1057,1058],{},"2. “低估类（相对低估）”（Generals-Relatively Undervalued）","——此类股票的特点是相对于同等质地的其他股票价格更便宜。我们要求的是按当前市场估值标准存在显著折价，但这类股票通常规模较大，参照产业资本估值的概念对它们并不适用。在这类投资中，一定要进行同类比较，不能拿苹果比橙子，这一点我们格外注意。在绝大多数情况下，由于对行业或公司了解不足，我们无法做出合理判断，便会直接跳过。",[14,1061,1062],{},"如前所述，这个新类别的比重在增加，收益率也令人十分满意。我们最近开始实施一种新方法，有望大幅降低整体估值标准变化带来的风险。举例来说：我们以 12 倍市盈率买入某只股票，而同等质地或较差质地的股票市盈率是 20 倍，但随后发生了一波估值重置，那些原本 20 倍市盈率的股票跌到了 10 倍。",[14,1064,1065],{},"这个风险过去一直令我们深感困扰，因为与”低估类（基于产业资本视角）“或”套利类”不同，一旦遇到估值标准变化，我们几乎无路可退。现在能把这个风险削弱了，此类投资大有前途。",[14,1067,1068,1071],{},[351,1069,1070],{},"3. “套利类”（Workouts）","——这类投资有时间表可循，机会来自出售、并购、重组、分拆等公司活动。我们不听传闻，不靠”内幕消息”，只依据公开披露的信息出手——要在白纸黑字上读到了，才会行动。套利类投资有时受大盘影响，但主要风险不是大盘涨跌，而是中途出现意外，预期的进展未能实现。常见的意外包括：反垄断等政府干预、股东否决、税收政策限制等。许多套利机会的毛利润看起来很低，就像在马路边找还剩时间的停车计时器。但套利投资确定性高、持有期短，扣除偶尔出现的重大亏损后，年化收益率相当不错。套利类每年贡献的绝对利润比低估类更稳定。市场下跌时，套利类积少成多，能给我们积累很大的领先优势；牛市中，此类投资则会拖累业绩。从长期来看，我预期套利类能与低估类一样，跑赢道指。",[14,1073,1074,1077],{},[351,1075,1076],{},"4. “控制类”（Controls）","——这类投资比较少见，但只要做了，规模通常不小。控制类有的是通过一开始的大宗买入建立，有的则从”低估类（基于产业资本视角）“发展而来——某只低估股票长时间在低位徘徊，让我们有机会买入相当大的股权比例，进而形成部分或完全控股，能够对公司施加影响。这时候，我们根据对公司前景和管理层能力的评估，决定采取主动还是保持相对被动。",[14,1079,1080],{},"我们不愿为了主动而主动。其他条件相同时，我更愿意让别人去做。但是大家可以放心，如果必须采取主动才能让资本得到合理运用，我们不会袖手旁观。",[14,1082,1083],{},"无论主动还是被动，控制类投资有一点是必须的：买入时就得把利润锁定。控制类投资的先决条件是物美价廉。一旦取得控股权，投资价值如何，就不再取决于经常失去理智的市场报价，而是企业本身的价值。",[14,1085,1086],{},"在”低估类（基于产业资本视角）“中提到的三只股票，我们是最大股东。凭借进可攻、退可守的特点，这三只股票都可能演变为控制类——这样很好。如果这三只股票股价上涨，达到更接近内在价值的水平，让我们得以卖出，那也很好，这就完成了一笔成功的”低估类（基于产业资本视角）“投资。",[14,1088,1089],{},"评估控制类投资的收益，至少要看好几年。有序买入需要时间；此后可能还要改善管理层、重新配置资本、推动出售或并购——这些工作都需要时间。正因如此，在控制类中，我们要求获利空间一定要足够大，如果空间太小，我们宁可放弃。",[14,1091,1092],{},"买入阶段的控制类，走势基本跟随道指。末期阶段，它的表现则更接近套利类。",[14,1094,1095],{},"顺便告诉大家一个好消息——我们之前做过的一笔控制类投资，登普斯特农具机械制造公司（Dempster Mill Manufacturing），我们卖掉后，买家经营得颇有起色。这正是我们的初衷，心里很踏实。做投资，别指望最后找个傻子接盘（华尔街管这个叫”博傻理论”），这种做法长远不了。以极低价格买入，平价卖出就能有喜人的回报，这才叫真功夫。",[14,1097,1098],{},"我说过，各类投资在组合中的占比，很大程度上取决于市场上有什么机会可以把握。所以在任意一年，低估类、套利类和控制类的比重，都有相当大的随机性，而这个随机因素对我们相对道指的业绩影响颇深。这正是为什么单独一年的业绩不重要，无论好坏，都不应该看得太重。",[14,1100,1101],{},"以过去三年为例，来说明各类投资占比的随机性对业绩的影响有多大。我们采用一种与衡量合伙基金整体业绩完全不同的方法——以各类投资的每月平均市值为基础，剔除借款和经营开支等因素，分别计算各类收益率（这是类别间比较最准确的方法，但不能反映合伙基金整体业绩）。低估类（含现有两个子类）、套利类与道指的收益率如下：",[35,1103,1104,1118],{},[38,1105,1106],{},[41,1107,1108,1110,1113,1116],{},[44,1109,46],{},[44,1111,1112],{},"低估类",[44,1114,1115],{},"套利类",[44,1117,376],{},[57,1119,1120,1132,1145],{},[41,1121,1122,1124,1126,1129],{},[62,1123,134],{},[62,1125,447],{},[62,1127,1128],{},"14.6%",[62,1130,1131],{},"-8.6%",[41,1133,1134,1136,1139,1142],{},[62,1135,148],{},[62,1137,1138],{},"20.5%",[62,1140,1141],{},"30.6%",[62,1143,1144],{},"18.4%",[41,1146,1147,1149,1151,1153],{},[62,1148,162],{},[62,1150,168],{},[62,1152,430],{},[62,1154,1155],{},"16.7%",[14,1157,1158],{},"显然，1962 年套利类（连同控制类）力挽狂澜。那一年，如果我们的套利类占比较低，相对大盘的收益率仍然会相当不错，但最终总收益会差很多。其实那一年，我们的套利类占比完全有可能很低，完全是投资机会决定的，并非我预判了市场走势后刻意安排。所以大家要明白：1962 年各类投资的配比如此恰当，纯属运气。",[14,1160,1161],{},"1963 年，我们做了一笔漂亮的套利投资，对整体业绩贡献极大，加上低估类也表现出色，全年收益率非常亮眼。如果那一年套利类的收益比较正常（比如像 1962 年那样），我们相对道指的优势会大幅缩水。那一年，占便宜的不是各类投资的配比，而是良好的形势。",[14,1163,1164],{},"再看 1964 年。这一年，套利类严重拖累了业绩。在道指大涨的年份，这本是意料之中，但这一年套利类的表现实在乏善可陈，对业绩的拖累超出了我的预期。回头来看，当时要是全部投低估类就好了，但投资不能重头再来。",[14,1166,1167],{},"希望通过我对上述表格的分析，大家能真正明白：某一年的业绩受许多变量影响，其中有些是我们既无法控制、也无法预知的。我们认为我们的各类投资都是好投资，手里有几类可供选择，而不是只靠一类，这对我们是好事。这既让我们能在各个类别中精挑细选，也避免了因某一类别机会枯竭而陷入无牌可打的困境。",[21,1169,1170],{"id":1170},"税项",[14,1172,1173],{},"今年不少合伙人为税单愁眉苦脸。不过话说回来，要是税单一片空白，恐怕也会有人发牢骚。",[14,1175,1176,1177],{},"很多本来头脑清醒的人，一到”税收考量”上就犯糊涂，比任何其他原因都更容易在投资上铸成大错。我有一个朋友，是西海岸有名的哲人，他说：人生中大多数错误，都是因为忘了自己真正想要什么。面对税收时，情绪的冲动让人犯错，正是这个道理。我还有一个东海岸有名的哲人朋友，他说，他不在乎有没有人代表他——他在乎的是不得不交税。",[1178,1179,1180],"span",{},"译注：此处典出美国独立运动口号”无代表，不纳税”（No Taxation Without Representation），东海岸哲人将其颠倒，说自己只恨”有税”，不在乎”无代表”，是一句自嘲式的黑色幽默。",[14,1182,1183],{},"还是回到西海岸哲人的话上来。投资这件事，我们真正想要什么？不是交最少的税——尽管税收是达成目标过程中需要考虑的一个因素。手段和目的不能混淆，我们的目的是实现税后复合收益率的最大化。当然，如果两种方案的税前复合收益率相同，一种需要缴税、另一种不需要，那后者更优。但现实中这种情况极少出现。",[14,1185,1186],{},"设想一下：现在从 3000 只股票里选出 20 只，构建最优投资组合。一年后，所有股票的价格都截然不同（无论是组合内还是组合外的），这时，这 20 只股票仍然是最优组合的概率极低。既然目标是税后复合收益率最大化，我们就必须持有按当前价格衡量最有价值的股票。3000 多只股票，每一只都无时无刻不在变化，因此调整投资组合是必然的。我们当然希望调整时卖出的是赚钱的股票——这时候就得交税。",[14,1188,1189],{},"一只股票去年或上个月的表现本身，不是现在持有或不持有它的理由，这很明显。一只股票已经下跌、回本无望，这不重要，很明显。去年持有某只大涨的股票让你心情愉悦，但在决定它是否属于今年最优组合时，这种愉悦毫无意义，这也很明显。",[14,1191,1192],{},"只要实现了收益，调整投资组合就需要交税。除极少数特殊情况外（我承认确实有），只要预期收益差距显著，税款的多少根本不是什么大事。我一直想不通，为什么那么多投资者对交税如此深恶痛绝。长期资本利得税率比大多数行业都低（从税法的设计来看，挖沟的人对社会的贡献，显然不如倒腾股票的。）",[14,1194,1195],{},"我知道在座的各位大多是务实的人，还是说点有用的吧。要彻底避免交税，只有三条路：（1）带着资产一起死——我觉得这个办法太终极了，就算是最狂热的避税人士，对这个”解决方案”恐怕也是又爱又怕；（2）把资产送出去——这样确实不用交税了，当然你也没钱买东西、交房租了；（3）把赚来的钱亏回去——要是你听到这个避税妙招眼前一亮，我得说我很佩服你，你真有坚守信念的勇气。",[14,1197,1198],{},"所以，合伙基金的一贯原则是：追求投资收益最大化，而不是把税款压到最低。我们愿意尽全力为国库多贡献收入——同时也会尽全力按税法允许的最低税率纳税。",[14,1200,1201],{},"说到投资管理中的税收问题，前几年还出现了一个有趣的现象。有人创设了所谓”互换基金”（swap funds），投资者用自己持有的股票交换基金份额。销售员力推的卖点是：用单只股票换取分散投资组合，可以延期缴纳资本利得税（销售员说起”延期”来，语气经常让人以为是”免除”）。税款只在赎回基金份额时才需要缴纳。对幸运儿来说，如果实现了我上面提到的三种情形，就彻底不用交了。",[14,1203,1204],{},"这些参与互换基金的投资者，逻辑很有意思。他们显然不想继续持有手里的股票，要不然也不会迫不及待地把它换掉（还要付一笔相当可观的手续费——通常高达 10 万美元）。换来的是别的同样不愿意交税的投资者丢出来的一袋烫手山芋。说句公道话，在所有参与者提交完股票、看清拟换入的投资组合之后，他们有机会反悔，但据我所知，真正反悔的人比例不大。",[14,1206,1207],{},"自从第一只互换基金 1960 年问世以来，我所知道的已有 12 只，还有几只正在筹备中。总销售额已超过 6 亿美元，显然颇受市场欢迎。这些基金都聘请基金经理，收取资产价值的 0.5% 作为管理费。互换基金的基金经理面临一个令人哭笑不得的处境：投资者付薪水让他们好好管钱（五只规模最大的基金，该费用每年在 25 万至 70 万美元之间），但由于投资者贡献股票时的成本基础极低，基金经理几乎每一个操作都会触发资本利得税。当然，他们很清楚，他们一旦产生税项，受影响的正是那些对税收极为敏感的投资者——要不然那些人根本不会买互换基金。",[14,1209,1210],{},"我把话说得重了一些。在某些情况下，互换基金或许确实是处理税务与投资双重难题的最优方案。不过，我觉得这是一个极好的测试——看看那些备受尊崇的投资顾问，在”少缴税”的限制下，能把钱管到什么程度。",[14,1212,1213],{},"三只规模最大的互换基金均成立于 1961 年，目前合计管理资产约 3 亿美元。其中 Diversification Fund 采用非自然年财年，难以进行历年对比。另外两只——Federal Street Fund 和 Westminster Fund（分别是规模第一和第三大）——由同时管理至少 20 亿美元机构资金的投资顾问打理。",[14,1215,1216],{},"以下是它们成立以来历年完整年度的业绩：",[35,1218,1219,1233],{},[38,1220,1221],{},[41,1222,1223,1225,1228,1231],{},[44,1224,46],{},[44,1226,1227],{},"Federal Street",[44,1229,1230],{},"Westminster",[44,1232,376],{},[57,1234,1235,1247,1258,1270],{},[41,1236,1237,1239,1242,1245],{},[62,1238,134],{},[62,1240,1241],{},"-19.0%",[62,1243,1244],{},"-22.5%",[62,1246,137],{},[41,1248,1249,1251,1254,1256],{},[62,1250,148],{},[62,1252,1253],{},"17.0%",[62,1255,165],{},[62,1257,151],{},[41,1259,1260,1262,1265,1268],{},[62,1261,162],{},[62,1263,1264],{},"13.8%",[62,1266,1267],{},"12.3%",[62,1269,165],{},[41,1271,1272,1274,1277,1280],{},[62,1273,330],{},[62,1275,1276],{},"2.6%",[62,1278,1279],{},"1.1%",[62,1281,1282],{},"9.8%",[14,1284,1285],{},"以上纯为管理业绩，未扣除手续费，且已将基金代投资者缴纳的税款计入收益。",[14,1287,1288],{},"您还想少缴税吗？",[21,1290,1291],{"id":1291},"其他事项",[14,1293,1294],{},"12 月 21 日的《汽车新闻》（AUTOMOTIVE NEWS）报道，福特汽车（Ford Motor Co.）计划 1965 年斥资 7 亿美元，在全球新增 626 万平方英尺的设施面积。巴菲特合伙基金也不能落后，我们计划 1965 年春季新增 227 又四分之一平方英尺的办公场地。",[14,1296,1297],{},"从 1956 年 5 月 5 日第一只前身有限合伙基金”巴菲特联合公司”（Buffett Associates, Ltd.）成立时的 105,100 美元净资产（猜猜那多出来的 100 美元是谁出的，不设奖），到 1965 年 1 月 1 日的 26,074,000 美元，规模的增长要求我们适时调整内部运作流程。因此，在大举扩张办公面积的同时，一位精干高效的人才也将加入我们，负责行政管理及其他相关工作。这将使比尔·斯科特（Bill Scott）能把更多精力投入他所擅长的证券分析工作。我会在年中的信里向大家汇报更多情况。",[14,1299,1300],{},"比尔的工作一如既往地出色，他和妻子把他们绝大部分家庭资产都投在了合伙基金里，权益为 298,749 美元。我们的新成员（他目前的雇主尚未找到接替人选，暂不透露姓名）也携妻子和儿女在合伙基金中进行了一笔相当可观的投资。苏茜（Susie）和我目前在合伙基金中的权益是 3,406,700 美元，这几乎是我们的全部净资产，唯一例外是我们持续持有 Mid-Continent Tab Card Co. 的股权，这是一家本地公司，我 1960 年买入时它的股东还不到 10 人。此外，我们的大家庭——三个子女、我的母亲、两个姐妹、两个姐夫、岳父、四位姑姑、四位表亲、六位侄子侄女——直接或间接持有合伙基金权益合计 1,942,592 美元。所以我们依然是大家一起吃自己家做的饭。",[14,1302,1303],{},"我们的业务季节性之强，在商界大概无出其右——一年只”营业”一天。在如此有限的工作时间里确保大量文件处理顺畅，实为一大考验。贝丝（Beth）和多娜（Donna）一如既往地出色，把这些难题和其他挑战都应对得井井有条。",[14,1305,1306],{},"毕马威会计师事务所（Peat, Marwick, Mitchell）在每年最重要的工作——厘清各方权益——上再次发挥了不可或缺的作用。我们总是给他们设置令人抓狂的截止日期，他们总是漂亮地完成任务。从今年的审计报告中，各位可以看到，毕马威已启用新程序——除年末常规审计外，每年还将对我们进行两次突击检查。",[14,1308,1309],{},"最后，也是最诚挚的一句：谢谢各位合伙人的密切配合，总能及时妥善地把文件送到我们手里，让我们得以把最多的时间花在该花的地方——守着收银机。我非常幸运，能够把绝大部分时间用于思考资金该投向哪里，而不是陷入那些令多少企业疲于奔命的琐碎事务。我们的组织架构让这种效率成为可能，更重要的是，正是各位合伙人让这种效率变成了现实。对此，我万分感激，我们也因此共同变得更加富有。",[14,1311,1312],{},"我们过去的政策是允许现有合伙人的近亲投资，不设最低金额限制。今年涌来的子女、孙辈等数量之多，让这一政策颇显吃力，因此我决定对现有合伙人的直系亲属设定 25,000 美元的最低投资门槛。",[14,1314,1315],{},"在未来两周内，各位合伙人将收到以下文件：",[173,1317,1318],{},[176,1319,1320],{},[179,1321,1322],{},"一份税务信函，其中列有申报 1964 年联邦所得税所需的全部合伙基金信息。此信函是唯一具有税务效力的文件。",[173,1324,1325],{},[176,1326,1327],{},[179,1328,1329],{},"毕马威会计师事务所出具的 1964 年度审计报告，载明合伙基金的运营情况和财务状况，以及各合伙人的资本账户数据。",[173,1331,1332],{},[176,1333,1334],{},[179,1335,1336],{},"一份由我签署的证明文件，注明您于 1965 年 1 月 1 日持有合伙基金权益的状况，数据与审计报告一致。",[173,1338,1339],{},[176,1340,1341],{},[179,1342,1343],{},"合伙协议附件”A”，列示全体合伙人名单。",[14,1345,1346],{},"如有任何疑问，请随时联系比尔或我本人。我们的员工固然出色，但随着规模增大，出现信函漏寄、指示遗漏、姓名跳过、数字颠倒等差错的概率也有所上升，如发现任何问题，请及时告知。下一封信大约在 7 月 15 日左右寄出，总结今年上半年的情况。",[14,1348,1349],{},"此致",[14,1351,1352],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特（Warren E. Buffett）",{"title":1354,"searchDepth":1355,"depth":1355,"links":1356},"",2,[1357,1359,1360,1361,1362,1363,1364,1365],{"id":23,"depth":1358,"text":24},3,{"id":341,"depth":1358,"text":341},{"id":778,"depth":1358,"text":778},{"id":863,"depth":1358,"text":863},{"id":984,"depth":1358,"text":984},{"id":1041,"depth":1358,"text":1041},{"id":1170,"depth":1358,"text":1170},{"id":1291,"depth":1358,"text":1291},"致合伙人信",null,"1964年巴菲特致合伙人信，阐述年度业绩表现、合伙人资金管理及投资哲学","md",{},true,16,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fhe-huo-ren-xin\u002F1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"description":1368},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信｜巴菲特","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fhe-huo-ren-xin\u002F1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","icuCuqhSsq1xFHOXKE3yfZFbslv9sA8WVr8hihcYr6E","buffett",[1381,1385,1389,1393,1396,1399,1402,1405,1408,1411,1415,1418,1421,1425,1428,1431,1435,1438,1441,1445,1448,1451,1455,1458,1461,1465,1468,1471,1475,1478,1481,1485,1488,1491,1495,1498,1501,1505,1508,1511,1515,1518,1521,1525,1528,1531,1532,1535,1538,1542,1545,1548,1552,1555,1558,1563,1566,1569,1573,1576,1579,1583,1586,1589,1593,1596,1599,1603,1606,1609,1613,1616,1619,1623,1626,1629,1633,1636,1639,1643,1646,1649,1653,1656,1659,1663,1666,1669,1673,1676,1679,1683,1686,1689,1693,1696,1699,1703,1706,1709,1713,1716,1720,1723,1727,1730,1734,1737,1741,1744,1748,1751,1755,1758,1762,1765,1769,1772,1776,1779,1783,1786,1790,1793,1797,1800,1804,1807,1811,1814,1818,1821,1825,1828,1832,1835,1839,1842,1846,1849,1853,1856,1860,1863,1867,1870,1874,1877,1881,1884,1888,1891,1895,1898,1902,1905,1909,1912,1916,1919,1923,1926,1930,1933,1937,1940,1944,1947,1951,1954,1958,1961,1965,1968,1972,1975,1979,1982,1986,1989,1993,1996,2000,2003,2007,2010,2014,2017,2021,2024,2028,2031,2035,2038,2042,2045,2049,2052,2056,2059,2063,2066,2070,2073,2077,2080,2084,2087,2091,2094,2098,2101,2105,2108,2112,2115,2119,2122,2126,2129,2133,2136,2140,2143,2147,2150,2154,2157,2161,2164,2168,2171,2175,2178,2182,2186,2190,2194,2198,2202,2206,2210,2214,2218,2222,2226,2230,2234,2238,2242,2246,2250,2254,2258,2262,2266,2270,2274,2278,2282,2286,2290,2294,2298,2302,2306,2310,2314,2318,2322,2326,2330,2334,2338,2342,2346,2350,2354,2358,2362,2366,2370,2374,2378],{"title":1382,"slug":1383,"category":1366,"order":1384},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1386,"slug":1387,"category":1388,"order":1384},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1390,"slug":1391,"category":1392,"order":1384},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1394,"slug":1395,"category":1366,"order":1355},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1397,"slug":1398,"category":1388,"order":1355},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1400,"slug":1401,"category":1392,"order":1355},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1403,"slug":1404,"category":1366,"order":1358},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1406,"slug":1407,"category":1388,"order":1358},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1409,"slug":1410,"category":1392,"order":1358},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1412,"slug":1413,"category":1366,"order":1414},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1416,"slug":1417,"category":1388,"order":1414},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1419,"slug":1420,"category":1392,"order":1414},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1422,"slug":1423,"category":1366,"order":1424},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1426,"slug":1427,"category":1388,"order":1424},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1429,"slug":1430,"category":1392,"order":1424},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1432,"slug":1433,"category":1366,"order":1434},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1436,"slug":1437,"category":1388,"order":1434},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1439,"slug":1440,"category":1392,"order":1434},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1442,"slug":1443,"category":1366,"order":1444},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1446,"slug":1447,"category":1388,"order":1444},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1449,"slug":1450,"category":1392,"order":1444},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1452,"slug":1453,"category":1366,"order":1454},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1456,"slug":1457,"category":1388,"order":1454},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1459,"slug":1460,"category":1392,"order":1454},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1462,"slug":1463,"category":1366,"order":1464},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1466,"slug":1467,"category":1388,"order":1464},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1469,"slug":1470,"category":1392,"order":1464},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1472,"slug":1473,"category":1366,"order":1474},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1476,"slug":1477,"category":1388,"order":1474},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1479,"slug":1480,"category":1392,"order":1474},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1482,"slug":1483,"category":1366,"order":1484},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1486,"slug":1487,"category":1388,"order":1484},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1489,"slug":1490,"category":1392,"order":1484},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1492,"slug":1493,"category":1366,"order":1494},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1496,"slug":1497,"category":1388,"order":1494},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1499,"slug":1500,"category":1392,"order":1494},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1502,"slug":1503,"category":1366,"order":1504},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1506,"slug":1507,"category":1388,"order":1504},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1509,"slug":1510,"category":1392,"order":1504},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1512,"slug":1513,"category":1366,"order":1514},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1516,"slug":1517,"category":1388,"order":1514},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1519,"slug":1520,"category":1392,"order":1514},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1522,"slug":1523,"category":1366,"order":1524},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1526,"slug":1527,"category":1388,"order":1524},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1529,"slug":1530,"category":1392,"order":1524},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":5,"slug":1376,"category":1366,"order":1372},{"title":1533,"slug":1534,"category":1388,"order":1372},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1536,"slug":1537,"category":1392,"order":1372},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1539,"slug":1540,"category":1366,"order":1541},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1543,"slug":1544,"category":1388,"order":1541},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1546,"slug":1547,"category":1392,"order":1541},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1549,"slug":1550,"category":1366,"order":1551},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1553,"slug":1554,"category":1388,"order":1551},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1556,"slug":1557,"category":1392,"order":1551},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1559,"slug":1560,"category":1561,"order":1562},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","致股东信",19,{"title":1564,"slug":1565,"category":1388,"order":1562},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1567,"slug":1568,"category":1392,"order":1562},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1570,"slug":1571,"category":1366,"order":1572},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1574,"slug":1575,"category":1388,"order":1572},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1577,"slug":1578,"category":1392,"order":1572},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1580,"slug":1581,"category":1366,"order":1582},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1584,"slug":1585,"category":1388,"order":1582},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1587,"slug":1588,"category":1392,"order":1582},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1590,"slug":1591,"category":1366,"order":1592},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1594,"slug":1595,"category":1388,"order":1592},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1597,"slug":1598,"category":1392,"order":1592},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1600,"slug":1601,"category":1561,"order":1602},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1604,"slug":1605,"category":1388,"order":1602},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1607,"slug":1608,"category":1392,"order":1602},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1610,"slug":1611,"category":1366,"order":1612},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1614,"slug":1615,"category":1388,"order":1612},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1617,"slug":1618,"category":1392,"order":1612},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1620,"slug":1621,"category":1366,"order":1622},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1624,"slug":1625,"category":1388,"order":1622},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1627,"slug":1628,"category":1392,"order":1622},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1630,"slug":1631,"category":1366,"order":1632},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1634,"slug":1635,"category":1388,"order":1632},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1637,"slug":1638,"category":1392,"order":1632},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1640,"slug":1641,"category":1561,"order":1642},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1644,"slug":1645,"category":1388,"order":1642},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1647,"slug":1648,"category":1392,"order":1642},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1650,"slug":1651,"category":1366,"order":1652},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1654,"slug":1655,"category":1388,"order":1652},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1657,"slug":1658,"category":1392,"order":1652},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1660,"slug":1661,"category":1366,"order":1662},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1664,"slug":1665,"category":1388,"order":1662},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1667,"slug":1668,"category":1392,"order":1662},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1670,"slug":1671,"category":1366,"order":1672},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1674,"slug":1675,"category":1388,"order":1672},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1677,"slug":1678,"category":1392,"order":1672},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1680,"slug":1681,"category":1366,"order":1682},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1684,"slug":1685,"category":1388,"order":1682},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1687,"slug":1688,"category":1392,"order":1682},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1690,"slug":1691,"category":1561,"order":1692},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1694,"slug":1695,"category":1388,"order":1692},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1697,"slug":1698,"category":1392,"order":1692},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1700,"slug":1701,"category":1366,"order":1702},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1704,"slug":1705,"category":1388,"order":1702},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1707,"slug":1708,"category":1392,"order":1702},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1710,"slug":1711,"category":1366,"order":1712},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1714,"slug":1715,"category":1388,"order":1712},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1717,"slug":1718,"category":1561,"order":1719},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1721,"slug":1722,"category":1388,"order":1719},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1724,"slug":1725,"category":1366,"order":1726},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1728,"slug":1729,"category":1388,"order":1726},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1731,"slug":1732,"category":1366,"order":1733},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1735,"slug":1736,"category":1388,"order":1733},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1738,"slug":1739,"category":1366,"order":1740},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1742,"slug":1743,"category":1388,"order":1740},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1745,"slug":1746,"category":1366,"order":1747},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1749,"slug":1750,"category":1388,"order":1747},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1752,"slug":1753,"category":1561,"order":1754},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1756,"slug":1757,"category":1388,"order":1754},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1759,"slug":1760,"category":1366,"order":1761},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1763,"slug":1764,"category":1388,"order":1761},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1766,"slug":1767,"category":1561,"order":1768},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1770,"slug":1771,"category":1388,"order":1768},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1773,"slug":1774,"category":1561,"order":1775},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1777,"slug":1778,"category":1388,"order":1775},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1780,"slug":1781,"category":1561,"order":1782},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1784,"slug":1785,"category":1388,"order":1782},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1787,"slug":1788,"category":1561,"order":1789},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1791,"slug":1792,"category":1388,"order":1789},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1794,"slug":1795,"category":1561,"order":1796},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1798,"slug":1799,"category":1388,"order":1796},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1801,"slug":1802,"category":1561,"order":1803},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1805,"slug":1806,"category":1388,"order":1803},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1808,"slug":1809,"category":1561,"order":1810},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1812,"slug":1813,"category":1388,"order":1810},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1815,"slug":1816,"category":1561,"order":1817},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1819,"slug":1820,"category":1388,"order":1817},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1822,"slug":1823,"category":1561,"order":1824},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1826,"slug":1827,"category":1388,"order":1824},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1829,"slug":1830,"category":1561,"order":1831},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1833,"slug":1834,"category":1388,"order":1831},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1836,"slug":1837,"category":1561,"order":1838},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1840,"slug":1841,"category":1388,"order":1838},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1843,"slug":1844,"category":1561,"order":1845},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1847,"slug":1848,"category":1388,"order":1845},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1850,"slug":1851,"category":1561,"order":1852},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1854,"slug":1855,"category":1388,"order":1852},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1857,"slug":1858,"category":1561,"order":1859},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1861,"slug":1862,"category":1388,"order":1859},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1864,"slug":1865,"category":1561,"order":1866},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1868,"slug":1869,"category":1388,"order":1866},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1871,"slug":1872,"category":1561,"order":1873},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1875,"slug":1876,"category":1388,"order":1873},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1878,"slug":1879,"category":1561,"order":1880},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1882,"slug":1883,"category":1388,"order":1880},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1885,"slug":1886,"category":1561,"order":1887},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1889,"slug":1890,"category":1388,"order":1887},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1892,"slug":1893,"category":1561,"order":1894},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1896,"slug":1897,"category":1388,"order":1894},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1899,"slug":1900,"category":1561,"order":1901},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1903,"slug":1904,"category":1388,"order":1901},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1906,"slug":1907,"category":1561,"order":1908},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1910,"slug":1911,"category":1388,"order":1908},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1913,"slug":1914,"category":1561,"order":1915},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1917,"slug":1918,"category":1388,"order":1915},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1920,"slug":1921,"category":1561,"order":1922},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1924,"slug":1925,"category":1388,"order":1922},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1927,"slug":1928,"category":1561,"order":1929},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1931,"slug":1932,"category":1388,"order":1929},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1934,"slug":1935,"category":1561,"order":1936},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1938,"slug":1939,"category":1388,"order":1936},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1941,"slug":1942,"category":1561,"order":1943},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1945,"slug":1946,"category":1388,"order":1943},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1948,"slug":1949,"category":1561,"order":1950},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1952,"slug":1953,"category":1388,"order":1950},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1955,"slug":1956,"category":1561,"order":1957},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1959,"slug":1960,"category":1388,"order":1957},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1962,"slug":1963,"category":1561,"order":1964},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1966,"slug":1967,"category":1388,"order":1964},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1969,"slug":1970,"category":1561,"order":1971},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1973,"slug":1974,"category":1388,"order":1971},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1976,"slug":1977,"category":1561,"order":1978},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1980,"slug":1981,"category":1388,"order":1978},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1983,"slug":1984,"category":1561,"order":1985},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1987,"slug":1988,"category":1388,"order":1985},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1990,"slug":1991,"category":1561,"order":1992},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1994,"slug":1995,"category":1388,"order":1992},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1997,"slug":1998,"category":1561,"order":1999},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2001,"slug":2002,"category":1388,"order":1999},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2004,"slug":2005,"category":1561,"order":2006},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2008,"slug":2009,"category":1388,"order":2006},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2011,"slug":2012,"category":1561,"order":2013},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2015,"slug":2016,"category":1388,"order":2013},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2018,"slug":2019,"category":1561,"order":2020},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2022,"slug":2023,"category":1388,"order":2020},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2025,"slug":2026,"category":1561,"order":2027},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2029,"slug":2030,"category":1388,"order":2027},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2032,"slug":2033,"category":1561,"order":2034},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2036,"slug":2037,"category":1388,"order":2034},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2039,"slug":2040,"category":1561,"order":2041},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2043,"slug":2044,"category":1388,"order":2041},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2046,"slug":2047,"category":1561,"order":2048},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2050,"slug":2051,"category":1388,"order":2048},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2053,"slug":2054,"category":1561,"order":2055},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2057,"slug":2058,"category":1388,"order":2055},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2060,"slug":2061,"category":1561,"order":2062},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2064,"slug":2065,"category":1388,"order":2062},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2067,"slug":2068,"category":1561,"order":2069},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2071,"slug":2072,"category":1388,"order":2069},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2074,"slug":2075,"category":1561,"order":2076},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2078,"slug":2079,"category":1388,"order":2076},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2081,"slug":2082,"category":1561,"order":2083},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2085,"slug":2086,"category":1388,"order":2083},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2088,"slug":2089,"category":1561,"order":2090},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2092,"slug":2093,"category":1388,"order":2090},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2095,"slug":2096,"category":1561,"order":2097},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2099,"slug":2100,"category":1388,"order":2097},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2102,"slug":2103,"category":1561,"order":2104},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2106,"slug":2107,"category":1388,"order":2104},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2109,"slug":2110,"category":1561,"order":2111},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2113,"slug":2114,"category":1388,"order":2111},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2116,"slug":2117,"category":1561,"order":2118},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2120,"slug":2121,"category":1388,"order":2118},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2123,"slug":2124,"category":1561,"order":2125},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2127,"slug":2128,"category":1388,"order":2125},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2130,"slug":2131,"category":1561,"order":2132},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2134,"slug":2135,"category":1388,"order":2132},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2137,"slug":2138,"category":1561,"order":2139},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2141,"slug":2142,"category":1388,"order":2139},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2144,"slug":2145,"category":1561,"order":2146},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2148,"slug":2149,"category":1388,"order":2146},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2151,"slug":2152,"category":1561,"order":2153},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":2155,"slug":2156,"category":1388,"order":2153},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2158,"slug":2159,"category":1561,"order":2160},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2162,"slug":2163,"category":1388,"order":2160},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2165,"slug":2166,"category":1561,"order":2167},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2169,"slug":2170,"category":1388,"order":2167},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2172,"slug":2173,"category":1561,"order":2174},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":2176,"slug":2177,"category":1388,"order":2174},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":2179,"slug":2180,"category":1388,"order":2181},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":2183,"slug":2184,"category":1388,"order":2185},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":2187,"slug":2188,"category":1388,"order":2189},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":2191,"slug":2192,"category":1388,"order":2193},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":2195,"slug":2196,"category":1388,"order":2197},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":2199,"slug":2200,"category":1388,"order":2201},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":2203,"slug":2204,"category":1388,"order":2205},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":2207,"slug":2208,"category":1388,"order":2209},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":2211,"slug":2212,"category":1388,"order":2213},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":2215,"slug":2216,"category":1388,"order":2217},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":2219,"slug":2220,"category":1388,"order":2221},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":2223,"slug":2224,"category":1388,"order":2225},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":2227,"slug":2228,"category":1388,"order":2229},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":2231,"slug":2232,"category":1388,"order":2233},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":2235,"slug":2236,"category":1388,"order":2237},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":2239,"slug":2240,"category":1388,"order":2241},"巴菲特：2015年接受亚利桑那州立大学领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安的专访实录","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":2243,"slug":2244,"category":1388,"order":2245},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":2247,"slug":2248,"category":1388,"order":2249},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":2251,"slug":2252,"category":1388,"order":2253},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":2255,"slug":2256,"category":1388,"order":2257},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 年哥伦比亚大学高校面谈——人生最美好的事是什么？》","ba-fei-te-2017-nian-ge-lun-bi-ya-da-xue-gao-xiao-mian-tan-ren-sheng-zui-mei-hao-de-shi-shi-shi-me",120,{"title":2259,"slug":2260,"category":1388,"order":2261},"巴菲特：2017年对话北京大学学生：最好的投资是投资自己","ba-fei-te-2017nian-dui-hua-bei-jing-da-xue-xue-sheng-zui-hao-de-tou-zi-shi-tou-zi-zi-ji",121,{"title":2263,"slug":2264,"category":1388,"order":2265},"巴菲特：2017年接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",122,{"title":2267,"slug":2268,"category":1388,"order":2269},"巴菲特：2017年接受PBS NEWS专访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-pbs-newszhuan-fang",123,{"title":2271,"slug":2272,"category":1388,"order":2273},"巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te",124,{"title":2275,"slug":2276,"category":1388,"order":2277},"巴菲特：2017年美国的未来","ba-fei-te-2017nian-mei-guo-de-wei-lai",125,{"title":2279,"slug":2280,"category":1388,"order":2281},"巴菲特：2018年再度邀请北大光华学子共进午餐问答全记录","ba-fei-te-2018nian-zai-du-yao-qing-bei-da-guang-hua-xue-zi-gong-jin-wu-can-wen-da-quan-ji-lu",126,{"title":2283,"slug":2284,"category":1388,"order":2285},"巴菲特：2018年时代周刊-分享美国财富的秘密","ba-fei-te-2018nian-shi-dai-zhou-kan-fen-xiang-mei-guo-cai-fu-de-mi-mi",127,{"title":2287,"slug":2288,"category":1388,"order":2289},"巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang",128,{"title":2291,"slug":2292,"category":1388,"order":2293},"巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",129,{"title":2295,"slug":2296,"category":1388,"order":2297},"巴菲特：2020年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2020nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",130,{"title":2299,"slug":2300,"category":1388,"order":2301},"巴菲特：2020年给内布拉斯加大学林肯分校2020届毕业生的建议","ba-fei-te-2020nian-gei-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-2020jie-bi-ye-sheng-de-jian-yi",131,{"title":2303,"slug":2304,"category":1388,"order":2305},"巴菲特：2021年专访《成为巴菲特》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-zhuan-fang-cheng-wei-ba-fei-te",132,{"title":2307,"slug":2308,"category":1388,"order":2309},"巴菲特：2021年巴菲特芒格接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2021nian-ba-fei-te-mang-ge-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",133,{"title":2311,"slug":2312,"category":1388,"order":2313},"巴菲特：2021年让观众无言以对 !有史以来最鼓舞人心的演讲之一","ba-fei-te-2021nian-rang-guan-zhong-wu-yan-yi-dui-you-shi-yi-lai-zui-gu-wu-ren-xin-de-yan-jiang-zhi-yi",134,{"title":2315,"slug":2316,"category":1388,"order":2317},"巴菲特：2021年采访《沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略：如何像传奇一样生活和投资（完整访谈）》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-cai-fang-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-tou-zi-ce-lue-ru-he-xiang-chuan-qi-yi-yang-sheng-huo-he-tou-zi-wan-zheng-fang-tan",135,{"title":2319,"slug":2320,"category":1388,"order":2321},"巴菲特：2022年32 届年度格雷厄姆和多德早餐会","ba-fei-te-2022nian-32-jie-nian-du-ge-lei-e-mu-he-duo-de-zao-can-hui",136,{"title":2323,"slug":2324,"category":1388,"order":2325},"巴菲特：2022年和查理罗斯对谈","ba-fei-te-2022nian-he-cha-li-luo-si-dui-tan",137,{"title":2327,"slug":2328,"category":1388,"order":2329},"巴菲特：2023年 查理芒格：伯克希尔的总设计师","ba-fei-te-2023nian-cha-li-mang-ge-bo-ke-xi-er-de-zong-she-ji-shi",138,{"title":2331,"slug":2332,"category":1388,"order":2333},"巴菲特：初学者如何投资--3 条简单的规则","ba-fei-te-2023nian-chu-xue-zhe-ru-he-tou-zi-3-tiao-jian-dan-de-gui-ze",139,{"title":2335,"slug":2336,"category":1388,"order":2337},"巴菲特：2023年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2023nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",140,{"title":2339,"slug":2340,"category":1388,"order":2341},"巴菲特：每个投资者都会犯的 10 个错误","ba-fei-te-2023nian-mei-ge-tou-zi-zhe-du-hui-fan-de-10-ge-cuo-wu",141,{"title":2343,"slug":2344,"category":1388,"order":2345},"巴菲特：2025年接受cbs采访","ba-fei-te-2025nian-jie-shou-cbscai-fang",142,{"title":2347,"slug":2348,"category":1388,"order":2349},"2026伯克希尔股东大会 CNBC专访巴菲特（完整纯中文）","2026bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui-cnbczhuan-fang-ba-fei-te",143,{"title":2351,"slug":2352,"category":1388,"order":2353},"巴菲特：2026年最新采访 CNBC《财经论谈》","ba-fei-te-2026nian-zui-xin-cai-fang-cnbc-cai-jing-lun-tan",144,{"title":2355,"slug":2356,"category":1388,"order":2357},"伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来","bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai",145,{"title":2359,"slug":2360,"category":1388,"order":2361},"巴菲特72条投资经典语录","ba-fei-te-72tiao-tou-zi-jing-dian-yu-lu",146,{"title":2363,"slug":2364,"category":1388,"order":2365},"巴菲特：你应该了解珠宝生意","ba-fei-te-ni-ying-gai-liao-jie-zhu-bao-sheng-yi",147,{"title":2367,"slug":2368,"category":1388,"order":2369},"巴菲特：如何建立能力圈","ba-fei-te-ru-he-jian-li-neng-li-quan",148,{"title":2371,"slug":2372,"category":1388,"order":2373},"巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑","ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji",149,{"title":2375,"slug":2376,"category":1388,"order":2377},"康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值","kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi",150,{"title":2379,"slug":2380,"category":1388,"order":2381},"考夫曼：Glenair 企业文化","kao-fu-man-glenair-qi-ye-wen-hua",151,[2383,2387,2390,2393,2396,2399,2402,2405,2408,2412,2416,2419,2422,2425,2428,2431,2434,2437,2440,2443,2446,2449,2452,2455,2458,2462,2465,2468,2471,2474,2477,2480,2483,2486,2489,2493,2496,2499,2502,2505,2508,2511,2514,2518,2521,2524,2527,2530,2533,2536,2539,2542,2545,2548,2551,2554,2557,2560,2563,2566,2569,2572,2575,2578,2581,2584,2587,2590,2593,2596,2599,2604,2608,2612,2616,2620,2624,2628,2632,2636,2640,2644,2648,2652,2656,2660,2664,2668,2672,2676,2680],{"title":2384,"slug":2385,"category":2386,"order":1384},"本分","benfen","核心哲学",{"title":2388,"slug":2389,"category":2386,"order":1355},"平常心","pingchangxin",{"title":2391,"slug":2392,"category":2386,"order":1358},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing",{"title":2394,"slug":2395,"category":2386,"order":1414},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui",{"title":2397,"slug":2398,"category":2386,"order":1424},"能力圈","nengliquan",{"title":2400,"slug":2401,"category":2386,"order":1434},"不做什么","buzuoshenme",{"title":2403,"slug":2404,"category":2386,"order":1444},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou",{"title":2406,"slug":2407,"category":2386,"order":1454},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang",{"title":2409,"slug":2410,"category":2411,"order":1464},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","投资理念",{"title":2413,"slug":2414,"category":2415,"order":1474},"负债","fuzhai","财务指标",{"title":2417,"slug":2418,"category":2411,"order":1474},"商业模式","shangyemoshi",{"title":2420,"slug":2421,"category":2411,"order":1484},"护城河","huchenghe",{"title":2423,"slug":2424,"category":2415,"order":1484},"净现金","jingxianjin",{"title":2426,"slug":2427,"category":2415,"order":1494},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing",{"title":2429,"slug":2430,"category":2411,"order":1494},"现金流","xianjinliu",{"title":2432,"slug":2433,"category":2415,"order":1504},"真实利润","zhenshilirun",{"title":2435,"slug":2436,"category":2411,"order":1504},"折现","zhexian",{"title":2438,"slug":2439,"category":2411,"order":1514},"安全边际","anquanbianji",{"title":2441,"slug":2442,"category":2415,"order":1514},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan",{"title":2444,"slug":2445,"category":2411,"order":1524},"基本面","jibenmian",{"title":2447,"slug":2448,"category":2411,"order":1372},"机会成本","jihuichengben",{"title":2450,"slug":2451,"category":2411,"order":1541},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou",{"title":2453,"slug":2454,"category":2411,"order":1551},"投机","touji",{"title":2456,"slug":2457,"category":2411,"order":1562},"止损","zhisun",{"title":2459,"slug":2460,"category":2461,"order":1572},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业经营",{"title":2463,"slug":2464,"category":2461,"order":1582},"品牌","pinpai",{"title":2466,"slug":2467,"category":2461,"order":1592},"差异化","chayihua",{"title":2469,"slug":2470,"category":2461,"order":1602},"用户体验","yonghutiyan",{"title":2472,"slug":2473,"category":2461,"order":1612},"渠道","qudao",{"title":2475,"slug":2476,"category":2461,"order":1622},"平台","pingtai",{"title":2478,"slug":2479,"category":2461,"order":1632},"生态系统","shengtaixitong",{"title":2481,"slug":2482,"category":2461,"order":1642},"单一产品","danyichanpin",{"title":2484,"slug":2485,"category":2461,"order":1652},"造钟人","zaozhongren",{"title":2487,"slug":2488,"category":2461,"order":1662},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu",{"title":2490,"slug":2491,"category":2492,"order":1672},"进取心","jinquxin","品格与心性",{"title":2494,"slug":2495,"category":2492,"order":1682},"耐心","naixin",{"title":2497,"slug":2498,"category":2492,"order":1692},"责任心","zerenxin",{"title":2500,"slug":2501,"category":2492,"order":1702},"爱心","aixin",{"title":2503,"slug":2504,"category":2492,"order":1712},"信誉","xinyu",{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":2492,"order":1719},"正直","zhengzhi",{"title":2509,"slug":2510,"category":2492,"order":1726},"理性","lixing",{"title":2512,"slug":2513,"category":2492,"order":1733},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi",{"title":2515,"slug":2516,"category":2517,"order":2174},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","访谈实录",{"title":2519,"slug":2520,"category":2517,"order":2181},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua",{"title":2522,"slug":2523,"category":2517,"order":2185},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu",{"title":2525,"slug":2526,"category":2517,"order":2189},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang",{"title":2528,"slug":2529,"category":2517,"order":2193},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang",{"title":2531,"slug":2532,"category":2517,"order":2197},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing",{"title":2534,"slug":2535,"category":2517,"order":2201},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong",{"title":2537,"slug":2538,"category":2517,"order":2205},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan",{"title":2540,"slug":2541,"category":2517,"order":2209},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang",{"title":2543,"slug":2544,"category":2517,"order":2213},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou",{"title":2546,"slug":2547,"category":2517,"order":2217},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu",{"title":2549,"slug":2550,"category":2517,"order":2221},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang",{"title":2552,"slug":2553,"category":2517,"order":2225},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan",{"title":2555,"slug":2556,"category":2517,"order":2229},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu",{"title":2558,"slug":2559,"category":2517,"order":2233},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu",{"title":2561,"slug":2562,"category":2517,"order":2237},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo",{"title":2564,"slug":2565,"category":2517,"order":2241},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang",{"title":2567,"slug":2568,"category":2517,"order":2245},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan",{"title":2570,"slug":2571,"category":2517,"order":2249},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu",{"title":2573,"slug":2574,"category":2517,"order":2253},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus",{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":2517,"order":2257},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh",{"title":2579,"slug":2580,"category":2517,"order":2261},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj",{"title":2582,"slug":2583,"category":2517,"order":2265},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao",{"title":2585,"slug":2586,"category":2517,"order":2269},"2013年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang",{"title":2588,"slug":2589,"category":2517,"order":2273},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang",{"title":2591,"slug":2592,"category":2517,"order":2277},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban",{"title":2594,"slug":2595,"category":2517,"order":2281},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu",{"title":2597,"slug":2598,"category":2517,"order":2285},"2025年： 方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing",{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":2602,"order":2603},"问答录：第一章 投资大道","dadaotouziwendalu-diyizhangtouzidadao","投资问答录",200,{"title":2605,"slug":2606,"category":2602,"order":2607},"问答录：第二章 商业模式和企业文化","dadaotouziwendalu-dierzhangshangyemoshiheqiyewenhua",201,{"title":2609,"slug":2610,"category":2602,"order":2611},"问答录：第三章 公司点评","dadaotouziwendalu-disanzhanggongsidianping",202,{"title":2613,"slug":2614,"category":2602,"order":2615},"问答录：第四章 人生箴言","dadaotouziwendalu-disizhangrenshengzhenyan",203,{"title":2617,"slug":2618,"category":2602,"order":2619},"问答录：第五章 演讲与访谈","dadaotouziwendalu-diwuzhangyanjiangyufangtan",204,{"title":2621,"slug":2622,"category":2602,"order":2623},"问答录：第六章 更新","dadaotouziwendalu-diliuzhangduzhegengxin",205,{"title":2625,"slug":2626,"category":2602,"order":2627},"商业逻辑篇：第1节：伟大企业","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di1jie-weidaqiye",401,{"title":2629,"slug":2630,"category":2602,"order":2631},"商业逻辑篇：第2节：商业模式","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di2jie-shangyemoshi",402,{"title":2633,"slug":2634,"category":2602,"order":2635},"商业逻辑篇：第3节：企业文化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di3jie-qiyewenhua",403,{"title":2637,"slug":2638,"category":2602,"order":2639},"商业逻辑篇：第4节：产品、差异化与创新","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di4jie-chanpin-chayihua-yu-chuangxin",404,{"title":2641,"slug":2642,"category":2602,"order":2643},"商业逻辑篇：第5节：品牌、营销与广告","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di5jie-pinpai-yingxiao-yu-guanggao",405,{"title":2645,"slug":2646,"category":2602,"order":2647},"商业逻辑篇：第6节：收购和多元化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di6jie-shougouheduoyuanhua",406,{"title":2649,"slug":2650,"category":2602,"order":2651},"商业逻辑篇：第7节：Stop doing list（不为清单）","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di7jie-stop-doing-list-buweiqingdan",407,{"title":2653,"slug":2654,"category":2602,"order":2655},"投资问答录商业逻辑篇：前言：买股票就是买公司","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-qianyan-maiqushoujiiumaishangsi",408,{"title":2657,"slug":2658,"category":2602,"order":2659},"投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念","duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian",410,{"title":2661,"slug":2662,"category":2602,"order":2663},"投资逻辑篇：第2章：投资理解","duanyongping-touziluoji-di2jie-touzilijie",411,{"title":2665,"slug":2666,"category":2602,"order":2667},"投资问答录：第3章 golf和投资","duanyongping-touziluoji-di3zhang-golfhetouzi",412,{"title":2669,"slug":2670,"category":2602,"order":2671},"投资逻辑篇：第4章 财务理解","duanyongping-touziwendalu-touziluoji-di4zhang-caiwulijie",413,{"title":2673,"slug":2674,"category":2602,"order":2675},"投资逻辑篇：第5章：估值逻辑","duanyongping-touziluoji-di5zhang-guzhiluoji",414,{"title":2677,"slug":2678,"category":2602,"order":2679},"投资逻辑篇：第6章 投资方法论","duanyongping-touziluoji-di6zhang-touzifangfalun",415,{"title":2681,"slug":2682,"category":2602,"order":2683},"投资逻辑篇：第7章：案例分析","duanyongping-touziluoji-di7zhang-anlifenxi",416,[2685,2688,2691,2694,2698,2702,2705,2709,2711,2714,2717,2720,2724,2727,2730,2733,2736,2740,2743,2746,2749,2752,2756,2759,2762,2764,2767,2770,2773,2776,2779,2782,2785,2788,2791,2794,2797,2800,2803,2806,2809,2812,2815,2818,2821,2824,2827,2830,2833,2836,2839,2842,2845,2848,2851,2854,2857,2860,2863,2866,2869,2872,2875,2878,2881,2884,2888,2891,2894,2897,2900,2904,2907,2910,2913],{"title":2397,"slug":2686,"category":2687,"order":1384},"ability-circle","决策与战略",{"title":2689,"slug":2690,"category":2687,"order":1355},"逆向思维","inversion",{"title":2447,"slug":2692,"category":2693,"order":1358},"opportunity-cost","经济学",{"title":2695,"slug":2696,"category":2697,"order":1414},"复利","compound-interest","数学与概率论",{"title":2699,"slug":2700,"category":2701,"order":1424},"激励机制","incentives","心理学",{"title":2703,"slug":2704,"category":2697,"order":1434},"概率思维","probabilistic-thinking",{"title":2706,"slug":2707,"category":2708,"order":1444},"二阶效应","second-order-effects","哲学与逻辑",{"title":2438,"slug":2710,"category":2687,"order":1454},"margin-of-safety",{"title":2712,"slug":2713,"category":2701,"order":1464},"心理误判","psychology-of-misjudgment",{"title":2715,"slug":2716,"category":2687,"order":1474},"检查清单","checklist",{"title":2718,"slug":2719,"category":2693,"order":1484},"规模优势","scale-advantage",{"title":2721,"slug":2722,"category":2723,"order":1494},"冗余与容错","redundancy","工程学\u002F系统",{"title":2725,"slug":2726,"category":2697,"order":1504},"排列组合","combinatorics",{"title":2728,"slug":2729,"category":2697,"order":1514},"费马-帕斯卡","fermat-pascal",{"title":2731,"slug":2732,"category":2697,"order":1524},"均值回归","regression-to-the-mean",{"title":2734,"slug":2735,"category":2697,"order":1372},"量化分析","quantitative-analysis",{"title":2737,"slug":2738,"category":2739,"order":1541},"临界点\u002F相变","critical-point-phase-transition","物理学",{"title":2741,"slug":2742,"category":2739,"order":1551},"平衡态","equilibrium",{"title":2744,"slug":2745,"category":2739,"order":1562},"熵增定律","entropy",{"title":2747,"slug":2748,"category":2739,"order":1572},"能量守恒","conservation-of-energy",{"title":2750,"slug":2751,"category":2739,"order":1582},"杠杆原理","leverage",{"title":2753,"slug":2754,"category":2755,"order":1592},"自然选择","natural-selection","生物学\u002F进化论",{"title":2757,"slug":2758,"category":2755,"order":1602},"物竞天择","competition-for-resources",{"title":2760,"slug":2761,"category":2755,"order":1612},"进化思维","evolutionary-thinking",{"title":2478,"slug":2763,"category":2755,"order":1622},"ecosystem",{"title":2765,"slug":2766,"category":2701,"order":1632},"爱好倾向","liking-tendency",{"title":2768,"slug":2769,"category":2701,"order":1642},"讨厌倾向","disliking-tendency",{"title":2771,"slug":2772,"category":2701,"order":1652},"避免怀疑倾向","doubt-avoidance-tendency",{"title":2774,"slug":2775,"category":2701,"order":1662},"一致性倾向","consistency-tendency",{"title":2777,"slug":2778,"category":2701,"order":1672},"好奇心倾向","curiosity-tendency",{"title":2780,"slug":2781,"category":2701,"order":1682},"康德式公平","kantian-fairness",{"title":2783,"slug":2784,"category":2701,"order":1692},"艳羡\u002F妒忌倾向","envy-jealousy-tendency",{"title":2786,"slug":2787,"category":2701,"order":1702},"反馈倾向","reciprocation-tendency",{"title":2789,"slug":2790,"category":2701,"order":1712},"权威误导","authority-misinfluence",{"title":2792,"slug":2793,"category":2701,"order":1719},"重视理由","reason-respecting-tendency",{"title":2795,"slug":2796,"category":2701,"order":1726},"过度乐观","over-optimism",{"title":2798,"slug":2799,"category":2701,"order":1733},"损失厌恶","loss-aversion",{"title":2801,"slug":2802,"category":2701,"order":1740},"否认倾向","denial-tendency",{"title":2804,"slug":2805,"category":2701,"order":1747},"过度反应","overreaction-tendency",{"title":2807,"slug":2808,"category":2701,"order":1754},"社群影响","social-influence",{"title":2810,"slug":2811,"category":2701,"order":1761},"压力倾向","stress-influence-tendency",{"title":2813,"slug":2814,"category":2701,"order":1768},"物质主义","materialism-tendency",{"title":2816,"slug":2817,"category":2701,"order":1775},"废话倾向","twaddle-tendency",{"title":2819,"slug":2820,"category":2701,"order":1782},"确认偏误","confirmation-bias",{"title":2822,"slug":2823,"category":2701,"order":1789},"锚定效应","anchoring-effect",{"title":2825,"slug":2826,"category":2701,"order":1796},"现时偏差","present-bias",{"title":2828,"slug":2829,"category":2701,"order":1803},"贪婪倾向","greed-tendency",{"title":2831,"slug":2832,"category":2693,"order":1810},"边际成本\u002F收益","marginal-cost-benefit",{"title":2834,"slug":2835,"category":2693,"order":1817},"供需关系","supply-and-demand",{"title":2837,"slug":2838,"category":2693,"order":1824},"帕累托最优","pareto-optimality",{"title":2840,"slug":2841,"category":2693,"order":1831},"竞争性毁灭","creative-destruction",{"title":2843,"slug":2844,"category":2687,"order":1838},"双轨分析","two-track-analysis",{"title":2846,"slug":2847,"category":2687,"order":1845},"非线性思维","nonlinear-thinking",{"title":2849,"slug":2850,"category":2687,"order":1852},"极化思考","extreme-thinking",{"title":2852,"slug":2853,"category":2687,"order":1859},"必要功","necessary-work",{"title":2855,"slug":2856,"category":2723,"order":1866},"停机问题","halting-problem",{"title":2858,"slug":2859,"category":2723,"order":1873},"闭环系统","closed-loop-system",{"title":2861,"slug":2862,"category":2723,"order":1880},"故障安全","fail-safe",{"title":2864,"slug":2865,"category":2723,"order":1887},"反向设计","reverse-design",{"title":2867,"slug":2868,"category":2723,"order":1894},"瓶颈分析","bottleneck-analysis",{"title":2870,"slug":2871,"category":2708,"order":1901},"第一性原理","first-principles",{"title":2873,"slug":2874,"category":2708,"order":1908},"证伪思维","falsification",{"title":2876,"slug":2877,"category":2708,"order":1915},"奥卡姆剃刀","occams-razor",{"title":2879,"slug":2880,"category":2708,"order":1922},"中道思维","middle-way",{"title":2882,"slug":2883,"category":2708,"order":1929},"不可知论","agnosticism",{"title":2885,"slug":2886,"category":2887,"order":1936},"大数定律","law-of-large-numbers","统计学",{"title":2889,"slug":2890,"category":2887,"order":1943},"样本偏差","sample-bias",{"title":2892,"slug":2893,"category":2887,"order":1950},"相关性≠因果","correlation-not-causation",{"title":2895,"slug":2896,"category":2887,"order":1957},"幸存者偏差","survivorship-bias",{"title":2898,"slug":2899,"category":2887,"order":1964},"基本比率","base-rate",{"title":2901,"slug":2902,"category":2903,"order":1971},"社会认同","social-proof","社会学",{"title":2905,"slug":2906,"category":2903,"order":1978},"部落本能","tribal-instinct",{"title":2908,"slug":2909,"category":2903,"order":1985},"金蛋定律","golden-egg-rule",{"title":2911,"slug":2912,"category":2903,"order":1992},"互利共生","mutualism",{"title":2914,"slug":2915,"category":2903,"order":1999},"激励传导","incentive-transmission",1778291659733]