[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2872},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1336,"library-sidebar-dao":2338,"library-sidebar-models":2640},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1322,"date":1323,"description":1324,"extension":1325,"meta":1326,"navigation":1327,"order":1328,"path":1329,"seo":1330,"seoDescription":1324,"seoTitle":1331,"slug":1332,"stem":1333,"__hash__":1334,"_collection":1335},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1985 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1308},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,60,63,66,69,484,487,490,493,496,499,502,505,508,511,514,517,520,523,526,534,537,540,543,546,549,552,555,558,561,564,567,570,573,576,580,583,586,589,592,595,598,601,604,607,610,613,616,619,622,625,628,631,634,637,640,647,650,653,656,659,662,665,668,671,674,677,680,683,854,859,862,865,868,871,874,877,880,883,886,889,892,895,898,901,904,907,910,913,916,919,922,925,928,931,934,937,940,943,946,949,952,955,958,961,964,967,970,973,976,979,1141,1144,1147,1150,1153,1156,1159,1162,1165,1168,1171,1175,1178,1181,1184,1187,1190,1193,1196,1199,1202,1205,1208,1211,1214,1217,1220,1223,1226,1229,1232,1235,1238,1241,1263,1266,1269,1271,1274,1276,1279,1282,1284,1287,1290,1293,1296,1299,1302,1305],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1985-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,18,19],{},"各位可能还记得去年年报中那段非常乐观的信息：虽然当时没什么大动作在进行中，但根据我们的经验，偶尔总会有大事冒出来。这一精心策划的企业战略终于在1985年开花结果。本报告的后续章节将讨论：(a) 我们大手笔买入大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC) 的股份，(b) 收购斯科特费泽公司 (Scott & Fetzer)，(c) 参与消防员基金保险公司 (Fireman’s Fund) 的一项大型长期保险业务，以及 (d) 出售我们持有的通用食品 (General Foods) 股票。",[14,21,22],{},"去年伯克希尔的净资产增加了6.136亿美元，增幅达48.2%。哈雷彗星恰好在这一年造访，倒也十分应景：这两件事在我有生之年都不会再见到了。自现任管理层接手的21年以来，每股账面价值由19.46美元增长到1,643.71美元，年复合增长率约为23.2%——这又是一个不可能再重现的数字。",[14,24,25],{},"有两个因素使得这样的增长率在未来无法持续。第一个因素可能是暂时的——与1964至1984年间的市场相比，如今的股票市场提供的投资机会少得可怜。我们很难找到价值被明显低估的股票来充实保险公司的投资组合。目前的情况与大约十年前截然相反——那时候唯一的问题是该挑哪个便宜货，而现在是根本没有便宜货。",[14,27,28],{},"市场的这种变化也对我们现有的投资组合产生了不利影响。在1974年的年报中，我曾说过：“我们认为我们几项主要持股在未来几年具有显著增值的巨大潜力。”但现在我说不出这样的话了。没错，我们保险公司目前持有的都是拥有卓越商业特质和杰出管理层的公司，跟1974年一样。但如今市场价格已经充分反映了这些优点，而在1974年这些优点却被完全忽视。当前的估值意味着，我们保险公司的投资组合不可能再取得过去那样规模的收益了。",[14,30,31],{},"第二个负面因素更加致命，那就是我们的规模。我们投入股票的资金是十年前的20多倍。而商业世界有一条铁律：规模的增长终将拖累卓越的经济回报。看看那些高回报率的公司吧，一旦股本规模超过10亿美元，没有一家能在随后的十年里把全部或大部分收益进行再投资的同时，还能维持20%以上的股本回报率。相反，为了维持高回报率，这些公司不得不通过大量分红或股票回购来剥离资本。如果所有收益都能以这些卓越企业所赚取的丰厚回报率进行再投资，股东们的境遇会好得多。但这些公司就是找不到足够多的高回报机会来做到这一点。",[14,33,34],{},"他们的问题就是我们的问题。去年我告诉各位，我们在未来十年需要赚到39亿美元才能达到15%的年回报率。而如今同样的门槛已经提高到57亿美元——增幅48%，恰好对应1985年我们资本基数的增长。（给大家一些参照：撇开石油公司不算，过去十年能赚到57亿美元以上的美国企业大约只有15家。）",[14,36,37],{},"查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger)——我在管理伯克希尔时的搭档——和我对于伯克希尔取得优于美国企业一般水平的回报能力持相当乐观的态度，只要这种超额回报持续存在，各位就能从公司留存全部收益中获益。我们有几项优势：(1) 我们不必担心季度或年度的账面数字，而是专注于长期价值最大化的行动；(2) 我们可以将业务拓展到任何有意义的领域——我们的视野不受历史、组织架构或既有观念的限制；(3) 我们热爱我们的工作。这些都是有利因素。即便如此，要达到我们期望的15%平均回报率，仍然需要充分的好运气——比过去达到23.2%所需的好运气还要多得多。",[14,39,40],{},"我们还需要提一下投资等式中可能影响近期购股者的另一个因素。从历史上看，伯克希尔的股价一直略低于其内在商业价值。在这种情况下，只要这种折价幅度不继续扩大，买入者的个人投资回报至少能与公司的经营业绩保持一致。但最近这种折价已经消失，偶尔甚至出现了小幅溢价。",[14,42,43],{},"折价的消失意味着伯克希尔的市值增速甚至超过了其商业价值的增速（而后者本身的增长也相当令人满意）。对于在此期间持有股份的老股东来说，这当然是好消息；但对新股东或潜在股东来说，这却是坏消息。如果新股东的投资回报仅仅是与公司未来的经营业绩持平，那么他们所支付的市值高于内在价值的溢价就必须一直维持下去。",[14,45,46],{},"管理层无法决定市场价格，不过可以通过信息披露和政策来促进市场参与者的理性行为。也许你已经猜到了，我个人更倾向于市场价格始终贴近企业的内在价值。在这种关系下，所有股东在其持有期间的回报都能与公司业绩精准对应。市场价格大幅高于或低于企业价值的剧烈波动，并不会改变全体股东最终的总回报——归根结底，投资者的收益必定等于企业的收益。但如果市场长期严重低估或高估，企业的收益就会在各个股东之间被不公平地分配，任何一位股东的投资结果在很大程度上取决于他是幸运、精明还是愚蠢。",[14,48,49],{},"长期来看，伯克希尔的市值与内在价值之间的关系，比我所知道的任何其他上市公司都要稳定。这要归功于各位股东。正因为你们理性、关注且以投资为导向，伯克希尔的股价几乎始终是合理的。这一非凡的结果是由一群非凡的股东群体创造的：我们几乎所有的股东都是个人投资者，而非机构。没有任何一家我们这种规模的上市公司能做到这一点。",[14,51,52],{},"你也许会认为，机构拥有大量高薪且经验丰富的专业投资人士，应该会成为金融市场稳定与理性的力量。事实恰恰相反：那些被机构大量持有并持续关注的股票，其价格往往是最不合理的。",[14,54,55],{},"本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 40年前讲过一个故事，很好地说明了投资专业人士为何会这样行事：一位石油勘探商去世后来到天堂门口，圣彼得带来了一个坏消息。“你确实有资格入住，”圣彼得说，“但你也看到了，石油商人的专区已经挤满了，实在塞不下你了。”石油商人想了想，问能否对现有住户说几句话。圣彼得觉得无伤大雅，便同意了。只见石油商人双手拢在嘴边大喊：“地狱里发现石油了！”天堂的大门立刻打开，所有石油商人争先恐后地朝地狱奔去。圣彼得很是佩服，邀请他搬进去住。石油商人犹豫了一下，说：“不了，我还是跟他们一起去吧。万一那传言是真的呢。”",[57,58,59],"h3",{"id":59},"报告收益的来源",[14,61,62],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。这些数字，以及更加详细的细分业务数据，是查理跟我关注的重点。我们认为合并后的总数对于管理或评估伯克希尔毫无帮助，事实上我们内部从来不会用到这些合并数据。",[14,64,65],{},"细分业务信息对于想要了解一家多元化企业运营状况的投资者来说同样至关重要。企业管理层在做并购决策时总是要求获得这些信息，但直到几年前，他们却很少把同样的信息提供给需要做出买卖决策的投资者。相反，当股东要求获得数据以了解企业的经济实况时，管理层通常以”告诉你们会损害公司利益”为由搪塞。最后还是美国证监会 (SEC) 下令必须披露分部数据，管理层才开始提供真实的答案。他们态度的转变让人想起艾尔·卡彭 (Al Capone) 的名言：“好言好语加上一把枪，比光靠好言好语管用得多。”",[14,67,68],{},"在下表中，商誉摊销并未计入具体业务，而是出于1983年年报中我的信件附录所阐述的原因，作为单独项目汇总列示。（1977至1984年信件汇编可应要求提供。）在第39-41页的”业务分部数据”和第49-55页的”管理层讨论”部分，提供了更多关于我们各项业务的信息，包括每个分部的商誉和商誉摊销数字。我建议各位同时阅读这些章节，以及从第56页开始的查理·芒格致韦斯科金融 (Wesco Financial) 股东的信。",[70,71,72,91],"table",{},[73,74,75],"thead",{},[76,77,78,81,84,86,89],"tr",{},[79,80],"th",{},[79,82,83],{},"税前收益",[79,85,83],{},[79,87,88],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[79,90,88],{},[92,93,94,110,123,136,153,170,187,204,221,238,255,272,289,306,323,338,355,372,389,406,423,439,456],"tbody",{},[76,95,96,100,103,106,108],{},[97,98,99],"td",{},"单位：千美元",[97,101,102],{},"1985",[97,104,105],{},"1984",[97,107,102],{},[97,109,105],{},[76,111,112,115,117,119,121],{},[97,113,114],{},"经营收益：",[97,116],{},[97,118],{},[97,120],{},[97,122],{},[76,124,125,128,130,132,134],{},[97,126,127],{},"保险集团：",[97,129],{},[97,131],{},[97,133],{},[97,135],{},[76,137,138,141,144,147,150],{},[97,139,140],{},"承保收益",[97,142,143],{},"$(44,230)",[97,145,146],{},"$(48,060)",[97,148,149],{},"$(23,569)",[97,151,152],{},"$(25,955)",[76,154,155,158,161,164,167],{},[97,156,157],{},"净投资收益",[97,159,160],{},"95,217",[97,162,163],{},"68,903",[97,165,166],{},"79,716",[97,168,169],{},"62,059",[76,171,172,175,178,181,184],{},[97,173,174],{},"联合零售商店",[97,176,177],{},"270",[97,179,180],{},"(1,072)",[97,182,183],{},"134",[97,185,186],{},"(579)",[76,188,189,192,195,198,201],{},[97,190,191],{},"蓝筹印花",[97,193,194],{},"5,763",[97,196,197],{},"(1,843)",[97,199,200],{},"2,813",[97,202,203],{},"(899)",[76,205,206,209,212,215,218],{},[97,207,208],{},"布法罗新闻报",[97,210,211],{},"29,921",[97,213,214],{},"27,328",[97,216,217],{},"14,580",[97,219,220],{},"13,317",[76,222,223,226,229,232,235],{},[97,224,225],{},"互助储贷",[97,227,228],{},"2,622",[97,230,231],{},"1,456",[97,233,234],{},"4,016",[97,236,237],{},"3,151",[76,239,240,243,246,249,252],{},[97,241,242],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[97,244,245],{},"12,686",[97,247,248],{},"14,511",[97,250,251],{},"5,181",[97,253,254],{},"5,917",[76,256,257,260,263,266,269],{},[97,258,259],{},"精密钢铁",[97,261,262],{},"3,896",[97,264,265],{},"4,092",[97,267,268],{},"1,477",[97,270,271],{},"1,696",[76,273,274,277,280,283,286],{},[97,275,276],{},"喜诗糖果",[97,278,279],{},"28,989",[97,281,282],{},"26,644",[97,284,285],{},"14,558",[97,287,288],{},"13,380",[76,290,291,294,297,300,303],{},[97,292,293],{},"纺织业务",[97,295,296],{},"(2,395)",[97,298,299],{},"418",[97,301,302],{},"(1,324)",[97,304,305],{},"226",[76,307,308,311,314,317,320],{},[97,309,310],{},"韦斯科金融",[97,312,313],{},"9,500",[97,315,316],{},"9,777",[97,318,319],{},"4,191",[97,321,322],{},"4,828",[76,324,325,328,331,334,336],{},[97,326,327],{},"商誉摊销",[97,329,330],{},"(1,475)",[97,332,333],{},"(1,434)",[97,335,330],{},[97,337,333],{},[76,339,340,343,346,349,352],{},[97,341,342],{},"利息费用",[97,344,345],{},"(14,415)",[97,347,348],{},"(14,734)",[97,350,351],{},"(7,288)",[97,353,354],{},"(7,452)",[76,356,357,360,363,366,369],{},[97,358,359],{},"股东指定捐赠",[97,361,362],{},"(4,006)",[97,364,365],{},"(3,179)",[97,367,368],{},"(2,164)",[97,370,371],{},"(1,716)",[76,373,374,377,380,383,386],{},[97,375,376],{},"其他",[97,378,379],{},"3,106",[97,381,382],{},"4,932",[97,384,385],{},"2,102",[97,387,388],{},"3,475",[76,390,391,394,397,400,403],{},[97,392,393],{},"经营收益合计",[97,395,396],{},"125,449",[97,398,399],{},"87,739",[97,401,402],{},"92,948",[97,404,405],{},"70,014",[76,407,408,411,414,417,420],{},[97,409,410],{},"通用食品特别股息",[97,412,413],{},"4,127",[97,415,416],{},"8,111",[97,418,419],{},"3,779",[97,421,422],{},"7,294",[76,424,425,428,431,434,437],{},[97,426,427],{},"华盛顿邮报特别股息",[97,429,430],{},"14,877",[97,432,433],{},"—",[97,435,436],{},"13,851",[97,438,433],{},[76,440,441,444,447,450,453],{},[97,442,443],{},"已实现证券收益",[97,445,446],{},"468,903",[97,448,449],{},"104,699",[97,451,452],{},"325,237",[97,454,455],{},"71,587",[76,457,458,464,469,474,479],{},[97,459,460],{},[461,462,463],"strong",{},"所有实体收益合计",[97,465,466],{},[461,467,468],{},"$613,356",[97,470,471],{},[461,472,473],{},"$200,549",[97,475,476],{},[461,477,478],{},"$435,815",[97,480,481],{},[461,482,483],{},"$148,895",[14,485,486],{},"1985年的业绩包含了异常高额的证券出售收益。但这件事本身并不意味着我们今年特别出色（虽然事实上确实如此）。某一年的证券收益就好比大学的毕业典礼——四年积累的知识在这一天被正式认可，而那一天你可能什么新东西也没学到。我们可能持有一只股票长达十年甚至更久，在此期间它的企业价值和市场价值可能稳步增长。而在我们最终卖出的那一年，它的价值可能毫无增长，甚至有所下降。但自买入以来的全部增值都会反映在卖出当年的会计收益中。（不过，如果持股的是我们的保险子公司，那么市值的涨跌每年都会反映在净资产中。）因此，任何一年报表上的资本损益，对于衡量我们当年的实际表现来说毫无意义。",[14,488,489],{},"1985年已实现资本利得中有很大一部分（税前总额4.88亿美元中的3.38亿美元）来自出售通用食品的股票。我们从1980年起便持有这些股票的大部分，当时买入的价格远低于我们认为合理的每股商业价值。年复一年，在吉姆·弗格森 (Jim Ferguson) 和菲尔·史密斯 (Phil Smith) 的管理下，通用食品的商业价值大幅提升。去年秋天，菲利普·莫里斯 (Philip Morris) 提出了收购要约，报价反映了公司价值的增长。我们因此受益于四个要素：便宜的买入价格、优秀的商业模式、专注于股东利益的能干管理层，以及愿意支付完全商业价值的买家。虽然最后一个要素是产生报告收益的唯一因素，但我们认为识别出前三个要素的能力，才是为伯克希尔股东创造价值的关键。在选择股票时，我们把全部精力放在漂亮地买进上，而不是漂亮地卖出。",[14,491,492],{},"今年我们又收到了来自华盛顿邮报 (Washington Post) 和通用食品的大额特别分红。（通用食品的交易显然发生在菲利普·莫里斯提出收购之前很久。）这类分红是在公司回购其他股东股份的同时，我们按比例出售部分持股时产生的。合同中规定了我们出售的股份数量，确保交易后我们的持股比例与交易前完全一致。美国国税局 (IRS) 非常恰当地将这类交易视为实质上等同于股息，因为我们作为股东在维持持股比例不变的情况下收到了现金。这种税务处理对我们有利，因为公司纳税人（不同于个人纳税人）对股息收入的税率远低于对长期资本利得收入的税率。（如果众议院通过的税改法案成为法律，这种差异将进一步扩大：根据其条款，企业实现的资本利得将按照与普通所得相同的税率征税。）然而，会计准则对于这类交易在股东报告中应如何处理并不明确。为了与去年的处理方式保持一致，我们将这些交易列为资本利得。",[14,494,495],{},"虽然我们不主动寻求这类交易，但当管理层提出这个想法时，我们总是乐于配合。每一次我们都认为，不卖出的股东（他们都有机会以与我们相同的价格出售）因公司以低于内在价值的价格回购股份而受益。我们获得的税务优惠，加上我们希望配合那些为全体股东增加价值的管理层，有时促使我们同意出售——但仅限于我们的持股比例不受影响的前提下。",[14,497,498],{},"话讲到这里，我们通常会接着讨论几项主营业务。但在此之前，让我们先来看看旗下一家较小企业的失败案例。我们的副董事长查理·芒格一直强调，研究失败比研究成功更重要——无论是在商业上还是人生的其他方面。他的这种精神正如那个人说的：“我只想知道我会死在哪里，这样我就永远不去那个地方。”你马上就能明白为什么我们俩是好搭档了：查理喜欢研究错误，而我为他提供了大量的素材，尤其是在纺织和保险业务方面。",[57,500,501],{"id":501},"关闭纺织业务",[14,503,504],{},"7月份我们决定关闭纺织业务，到年底这项令人不快的工作已基本完成。回顾纺织业的投资历程很有教育意义。",[14,506,507],{},"21年前，由我担任普通合伙人的巴菲特合伙公司 (Buffett Partnership, Ltd.) 收购了伯克希尔·哈撒韦的控制权时，公司的账面净资产为2,200万美元，全部投在纺织业务上。然而公司的内在商业价值远低于此，因为纺织资产所赚取的回报根本配不上其账面价值。事实上，在之前的9年里（即伯克希尔与哈撒韦合并经营期间），累计5.3亿美元的销售收入产生了1,000万美元的累计亏损。虽然偶尔会报出利润，但净结果总是进一步退两步。",[14,509,510],{},"我们买下公司的时候，南方的纺织工厂——大多没有工会——被认为具有重要的竞争优势。北方的纺织工厂大部分已经关门，许多人以为我们也会清算了事。",[14,512,513],{},"然而我们认为，如果由一位长期在公司工作的老员工来掌管，业务会好得多。我们立刻选中了肯·蔡斯 (Ken Chace) 担任总裁。在这一点上我们百分之百正确：蔡斯以及后来接替他的加里·莫里森 (Garry Morrison) 都是出色的管理者，丝毫不逊于我们旗下那些盈利更高的业务的经营者。",[14,515,516],{},"1967年初，纺织业务产生的现金被用来收购国民保险公司 (National Indemnity Company)，从而进入保险行业。部分资金来自利润，部分来自减少纺织品存货、应收账款和固定资产的投入。事实证明这次撤退的决策完全正确：尽管在蔡斯的管理下纺织业务已大为改善，但即使在景气高峰时期也从未真正赚到钱。",[14,518,519],{},"此后伯克希尔进一步多元化，随着纺织业务在公司中占比越来越小，它对整体回报的拖累也逐渐减轻。我们之所以继续保留纺织业务，原因我在1978年年报中已经说过（后来也多次提及）：“(1) 纺织业务是当地非常重要的雇主；(2) 管理层坦诚面对问题并积极解决；(3) 员工理解公司的困境并极力配合；(4) 相对于投入的资本，业务应该能产生适度的现金回报。”我还说过：“只要这些条件持续存在——我们预计不会改变——即使有更好的资本用途，我们仍将继续支持纺织业务。”",[14,521,522],{},"事实证明我对第(4)点的判断大错特错。虽然1979年的盈利还过得去，但此后纺织业务便开始大量消耗现金。到1985年年中，连我自己都看清楚了，这种状况几乎肯定会一直持续下去。如果能找到愿意继续经营的买家，我当然宁可卖掉而不是清算，哪怕卖价低一些也好。但对我来说最终显而易见的经济现实，对别人同样一目了然，所以根本没有人感兴趣。",[14,524,525],{},"我不会仅仅为了给公司的回报率多加零点几个百分点就关掉一家盈利低于正常水平的企业。但同时我也认为，即使是一家盈利丰厚的公司，一旦某项业务看起来将会无休止地亏损下去，也不应该继续向它输血。亚当·斯密 (Adam Smith) 不会赞成我的第一个主张，卡尔·马克思 (Karl Marx) 不会赞成我的第二个主张——折中的立场是唯一让我感到安心的选择。",[14,527,528,529,533],{},"我必须再次强调，蔡斯和莫里森为了让纺织业务取得成功，展现了非凡的智谋、干劲和想象力。为了实现可持续的盈利，他们重新规划了产品线、机器配置和分销安排。我们还大手笔收购了瓦姆贝克磨坊 (Waumbec Mills)，期望产生重要的协同效应（一个在商业界被广泛使用的术语，专门用来解释那些本身毫无道理的收购）。但最终一切努力都白费了，没有更早退出是我的错。最近《商业周刊》(",[530,531,532],"em",{},"Business Week",") 的一篇文章指出，自1980年以来已有250家纺织厂关门。那些工厂的老板们掌握的信息跟我一模一样，只不过他们处理信息时更加客观。我无视了孔德 (Comte) 的忠告——“理智应当是心灵的仆人，而非它的奴隶”——而去选择相信我更愿意相信的东西。",[14,535,536],{},"美国国内的纺织业经营的是大宗商品生意，在一个产能严重过剩的全球市场中竞争。我们遭遇的许多困难，无论是直接还是间接，都要归因于来自国外的竞争——那些国家的工人工资仅为美国最低工资的一小部分。但这绝不意味着我们的员工应该为关厂承担任何责任。事实上，与美国其他行业的员工相比，我们纺织工人的薪资低得可怜，整个纺织行业一直如此。在劳资协议谈判中，工会干部和会员充分理解我们在成本方面的劣势，从未提出不合理的加薪要求或不利于生产的做法。恰恰相反，他们跟我们一样努力维持竞争力。即使在清算期间，他们的表现也堪称完美。（讽刺的是，如果当年工会表现得蛮不讲理一些，我们就会更早认清纺织业注定没有前途，立刻关厂，从而避免后来的重大损失。）",[14,538,539],{},"多年来，我们一直面临着在纺织业务上追加大量资本支出以降低可变成本的抉择。每一个投资方案看起来都是稳赚的。事实上，以标准的投资回报率来衡量，这些方案通常比投资于我们高利润的糖果和报纸业务还要诱人。",[14,541,542],{},"但纺织投资所许诺的收益只是一种幻象。我们许多国内外的竞争对手都在进行同样的投资，一旦足够多的公司这样做了，降低的成本就变成了全行业降价的基准。单独来看，每家公司的资本投资决策看起来都合乎成本效益、都很理性；但从整体来看，这些决策相互抵消，变得完全不理性——就好比每个看游行的人都觉得踮起脚尖就能看得更清楚一样。每一轮投资过后，所有参与者在游戏中投入了更多的钱，但回报依然少得可怜。",[14,544,545],{},"因此，我们面临着一个痛苦的抉择：大规模资本投入虽然能让纺织业务苟延残喘，但在不断膨胀的资本基数上只能获得惨淡的回报。而且即使投入之后，来自国外在劳动力成本上的巨大、持续的竞争优势依然存在。但如果不投资，即便跟国内同行比，我们也会越来越缺乏竞争力。我总觉得自己就像伍迪·艾伦 (Woody Allen) 在他某部电影里描述的处境：“比起历史上任何时刻，人类此刻正站在一个十字路口。一条路通往绝望和彻底的无助，另一条通往彻底的毁灭。让我们祈祷拥有足够的智慧做出正确的选择。”",[14,547,548],{},"想要理解”投还是不投”这个困境在大宗商品行业中如何演绎，不妨看看伯灵顿工业 (Burlington Industries)——无论是21年前还是现在，它都是美国最大的纺织公司。1964年伯灵顿的销售额为12亿美元，而我们只有5,000万美元。它在分销和生产方面拥有我们永远无法比拟的优势，盈利记录当然也远远优于我们。1964年底它的股价是60美元，我们是13美元。",[14,550,551],{},"伯灵顿决定坚守纺织本业，到1985年销售额达到约28亿美元。在1964至1985年间，该公司累计资本支出约30亿美元，远超任何其他美国纺织公司——以1964年60美元的股价计算，相当于每股投入了超过200美元。我相信其中绝大部分用于降低成本和扩张产能。鉴于伯灵顿坚守纺织业的基本承诺，这些资本决策应该说是合理的。",[14,553,554],{},"尽管如此，以实际美元计算，伯灵顿的销售量已经下降，如今的销售利润率和股本回报率也远不如20年前。该公司的股票在1965年进行了一拆二，如今股价为34美元——调整后仅仅略高于1964年的60美元。与此同时，消费者物价指数却已是当年的三倍多。因此，每股代表的购买力仅为1964年底的大约三分之一。虽然一直有固定股息发放，但股息的购买力同样大幅缩水。",[14,556,557],{},"这对股东来说是毁灭性的结局，它说明了当大量的智力和精力被投入到一个错误的前提上时会发生什么。这情景让人想起塞缪尔·约翰逊 (Samuel Johnson) 的那匹马：“一匹会数到十的马是一匹了不起的马——但不是一个了不起的数学家。”同样地，一家在本行业中能够出色配置资本的纺织公司是一家了不起的纺织公司——但不是一家了不起的企业。",[14,559,560],{},"根据我个人的经验和对其他企业的大量观察，我得出一个结论：一份优异的管理记录（以经济回报衡量），与其说取决于你划船的技术有多好，不如说取决于你上了哪条船（当然，无论企业好坏，才智和努力都很重要）。几年前我写过：“当一个以管理才能著称的管理层遇上一家基本面糟糕的企业时，保持完好无损的是企业的名声。”我至今没有改变这个看法。如果你发现自己在一条长期漏水的船上，把精力花在换一条船上，要比花在补漏洞上有效得多。",[562,563],"hr",{},[14,565,566],{},"在说完纺织业这段故事后，还有一个投资方面的后记。有些投资者在选股时非常看重账面价值（我年轻时也是这样）。一些经济学家和学者则认为，重置价值对于评估整个股票市场的合理价格水平具有相当的重要性。持这两种观点的人，如果来参加我们1986年初处置纺织机器设备的拍卖会，一定能受到深刻的教育。",[14,568,569],{},"出售的设备（包括拍卖前几个月已处理的部分）堆满了新贝德福德约75万平方英尺的厂房空间，而且都还能正常使用。这些设备的原始成本约为1,300万美元，其中包括1980至1984年间投入的200万美元，经加速折旧后的账面价值为86.6万美元。虽然没有哪个头脑正常的管理层会再投资纺织业，但要买一套全新的同等设备大概需要3,000万到5,000万美元。",[14,571,572],{},"而我们出售这些设备的总收入是163,122美元。扣除必要的售前和售后费用，净收入还不到零。我们1981年以每台5,000美元购买的相对先进的织布机，50美元一台都没人要。最后只能以每台26美元当废铁卖掉——还不够搬运的费用。",[14,574,575],{},"想想这个：布法罗两条报纸派送路线，或者一家喜诗糖果门店所拥有的经济商誉，都远远超过我们从这批庞大的有形资产中获得的收入——而这些有形资产在不久之前、不同的竞争环境下，还能雇用上千人。",[57,577,579],{"id":578},"三家非常优秀的企业以及关于激励性薪酬的几点思考","三家非常优秀的企业（以及关于激励性薪酬的几点思考）",[14,581,582],{},"我12岁的时候，跟爷爷一起住了大约四个月。他做杂货生意，同时也在写一本书，每天晚上念几页给我听。书名——大家做好心理准备——叫《如何经营一家杂货店，以及我从钓鱼中学到的一些事》。我爷爷深信所有人对这两个话题都感兴趣，全世界都在等着看他的高见。从本节的标题和内容来看，你大概会觉得我受爷爷的文风（和性格）影响太深了。",[14,584,585],{},"我把内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)、喜诗糖果 (See’s Candy Shops) 和布法罗新闻报 (Buffalo Evening News) 放在一起讨论，是因为这些企业的竞争优势、劣势和前景与一年前我报告的时候没什么变化。简短的篇幅绝不意味着这些企业对我们不重要：1985年它们合计税前利润达到7,200万美元。15年前，在我们收购其中任何一家之前，它们的合计税前利润大约只有800万美元。",[14,587,588],{},"虽然利润从800万增长到7,200万听起来很了不起——事实上也确实如此——但你不能想当然地认为就该如此。首先你必须确认基期的利润没有被人为压低。其次，如果基期利润相对于投入的资本来说就已经相当可观了，那么一个更重要的问题必须考察：产生这些额外收益需要投入多少额外资本？",[14,590,591],{},"在这两个方面，我们的三家企业都经得起考验。第一，15年前，相对于当时投入的资本，它们的利润就已经相当出色。第二，虽然如今年利润增加了6,400万美元，但企业运营所需的额外投入资本仅约4,000万美元。",[14,593,594],{},"这三家企业盈利能力的大幅增长，以及只需少量额外资本的特质，非常好地说明了通货膨胀时期经济商誉所能发挥的威力（1983年年报中有详细解释）。这些企业的财务特征使得我们能够将它们产生的大部分收益投入到其他地方。然而美国企业界的普遍情况却截然不同：要想大幅提高利润，大多数公司都需要大幅增加资本投入。美国企业平均需要再投入约5美元的资本才能增加1美元的年税前利润。按此计算，要达到我们这三家企业目前的盈利水平，一般企业需要额外投入超过3亿美元的资本。",[14,596,597],{},"当资本回报率平平无奇时，靠投入更多资本来赚更多钱算不上什么了不起的管理成就。你坐在摇椅上也能做到这一点——只要把存进银行的资金翻两番，利息收入也会翻两番。没有人会为这种”成就”而欢呼。然而，每当某位CEO退休时，大家照例高唱赞歌，说他在任期内将公司利润提高了好几倍——却没有人去看看这种增长是不是仅仅来自多年的留存收益加上复利的作用。",[14,599,600],{},"如果那家公司在整个期间始终保持优异的资本回报率，或者投入的资本只增加了一倍，那么这位CEO获得的掌声当之无愧。但如果资本回报率平平，投入的资本也随利润同步增长，那么掌声就应该收回。一个把利息自动再存入的储蓄账户也能实现同样的年复一年利润增长——如果利率是8%，18年后利息收入自然翻两番。",[14,602,603],{},"这个简单的算术常常被公司忽视，从而损害了股东的利益。许多公司的薪酬方案慷慨地奖赏管理层所取得的利润增长，而这些利润增长完全或大部分只是来自留存收益——也就是从股东手中扣留的收益。例如，十年期固定价格的股票期权被普遍授予，授予它们的往往是那些股息率极低的公司。",[14,605,606],{},"让我举一个例子来说明这其中可能存在的不公平。假设你有一个本金10万美元、利率8%的储蓄账户，交由一位信托经理”管理”，他每年决定以现金支付你多少利息。未支付的利息算是”留存收益“，继续存在账户中利滚利。再假设你的信托经理以其卓越的智慧将”派息率”定为年收入的四分之一。",[14,608,609],{},"在这种假设下，十年后你的账户余额将是179,084美元。此外，在这位英明的经理人管理下，你的年利息收入将增长约70%，从8,000美元增加到13,515美元。你的”股息“也会相应增长，从第一年的2,000美元稳步升至第十年的3,378美元。每年当你的经理人向你提交年度报告时，所有图表上的曲线都会一路向上。",[14,611,612],{},"现在，好玩的来了。让我们更进一步，给你的信托经理一个以第一年公允价值为基础、十年固定价格的期权，以购买你”业务”（也就是你的储蓄账户）的一部分。有了这样的期权，你的经理人仅仅通过把你的大部分利息扣留下来，就能以你为代价获取一笔丰厚的利润。如果他既是马基雅维利主义者又有点数学基础，那他一旦站稳脚跟，很可能还会降低你的派息比例。",[14,614,615],{},"你不要以为这种情况不大可能发生。企业界的许多股票期权正是以这种方式运作的：它们之所以增值，仅仅是因为管理层留存了收益，而不是因为他们出色地运用了手中的资本。",[14,617,618],{},"事实上，管理层在期权问题上采用双重标准。撇开认股权证（它能立即给发行公司带来可观的补偿）不谈，我认为可以毫不夸张地说，在整个商业世界中，从来没有人向外部人士授予企业全部或部分价值的十年期固定价格期权。十个月都会被认为太离谱了。对于那些需要不断追加资本的企业，授予长期期权更是完全不可想象的。任何想要获得这种期权的外部人士，都必须为期权期间追加的资本全额付费。",[14,620,621],{},"然而，管理层虽然不愿对外人这么做，却完全愿意对自己这么做。（跟自己谈判嘛，很难打起来。）管理层定期为自己和同事设计十年期固定价格的期权，第一，完全无视留存收益自动增加价值这个事实；第二，无视资本的持有成本。结果，这些经理人获得的利润就跟他们持有那个自动增值的储蓄账户的期权一样丰厚。",[14,623,624],{},"当然，股票期权有时确实会授予才华横溢、为公司创造价值的管理者，有时也会给予他们完全恰当的回报。（事实上，真正杰出的管理者得到的回报几乎总是远远不够。）但当结果碰巧公平的时候，那也只是巧合。期权一旦授予，就对个人表现”视而不见”。因为它是不可撤销且无条件的（只要经理人留在公司），一个庸才从期权中获得的好处跟一个明星完全一样。一个准备打瞌睡十年的管理层版瑞普·凡·温克尔 (Rip Van Winkle)，再也找不到比这更好的”激励”制度了。",[14,626,627],{},"（我忍不住要评论一下授予”外部人士”的一个长期期权案例：美国政府获得了克莱斯勒 (Chrysler) 公司的股票期权，作为政府为该公司提供救命贷款担保的部分对价。当这些期权给政府带来了可观的收益时，克莱斯勒竭力想要修改兑付条件，声称政府获得的回报远远超出预期，与其对克莱斯勒复苏的贡献极不相称。该公司对这种”付出与回报不对等”的愤慨成了全国性的新闻。这种愤慨恐怕是绝无仅有的：据我所知，没有任何管理者曾经对自己或同事从期权中获得的同样毫无根据的暴利表示过任何异议。）",[14,629,630],{},"讽刺的是，关于期权的各种言论经常把它描绘成一种好东西，理由是它能让管理者和所有者坐在同一条船上。而事实上，两者坐的完全是不同的船。没有任何一位所有者能免除资本成本的负担，而固定价格期权的持有者完全不必承担资本成本。所有者必须权衡上涨的潜力和下跌的风险；期权持有者则没有任何下行风险。实际上，你最想持有期权的商业项目往往恰恰是你不愿意投入真金白银去拥有的项目。（有人免费送我彩票我一定欣然接受——但我永远不会去买彩票。）",[14,632,633],{},"在股利政策方面也是一样，对期权持有者最有利的政策可能恰恰损害了所有者的利益。回想一下那个储蓄账户的例子。持有期权的信托经理从不分红的政策中获益最大。相反，账户的所有者应该倾向于全额提取利息，以防止持有期权的经理人从账户的留存收益中分一杯羹。",[14,635,636],{},"尽管有这么多缺陷，期权在某些情况下仍然是恰当的。我批评的重点在于它们被不加区分地滥用。就此我想强调三点：",[14,638,639],{},"第一，股票期权不可避免地与公司的整体业绩挂钩。因此，从逻辑上说，它们应该只授予对公司整体业绩负责的高管。负责特定领域的管理者，其激励报酬应该与他们职责范围内的业绩挂钩。一个打击率0.350的击球手应该也值得获得丰厚的报酬——即使他效力于一支垫底的球队。而一个打击率0.150的击球手不该获得奖励——即使他所在的球队拿了冠军。只有对整个团队负有全面责任的人，其报酬才应该与团队的成绩挂钩。",[14,641,642,643,646],{},"第二，期权的设计必须非常审慎。除非有特殊因素，期权中应当内置留存收益或资本持有成本的调整因子。同样重要的是，期权的定价必须合理。当管理层面对公司被收购的要约时，他们总是不遗余力地指出市场价格作为真实价值的衡量标准是多么不靠谱。可既然如此，为什么这些同样被低估的价格就能成为管理层向自己出售公司部分股权的估值依据呢？（他们可能走得更远：高管和董事有时查阅税法，以确定向内部人士出售公司部分股权的",[530,644,645],{},"最低","价格。在此过程中，他们还往往选择对公司产生最差税务后果的方案。）除了极特殊的情况，以低价出售公司的部分股权——无论是卖给外部人还是内部人——都不符合所有者的利益。结论显而易见：期权的定价应当基于企业的真实商业价值。",[14,648,649],{},"第三，我想强调的是，有一些我极为敬佩、经营业绩远优于我的管理者，在固定价格期权这个问题上与我意见不同。他们建立了行之有效的企业文化，而固定价格期权是帮助他们的工具之一。通过他们的领导力和以身作则，加上以期权作为激励手段，这些管理者教会了同事们像所有者一样思考。这种文化非常稀有，一旦存在，也许就应该原样保留——哪怕期权方案中有些低效和不公平之处。“没坏就别修”总好过”不惜一切代价追求完美”。",[14,651,652],{},"然而，在伯克希尔，我们采用的激励薪酬制度是根据各位关键经理人在其各自管辖范围内达成目标的情况来奖励他们的。喜诗糖果表现好，不会给新闻业务带来奖金——反过来也一样。我们在开奖金支票时也不会看伯克希尔的股价。我们相信，无论伯克希尔的股价是涨、是跌还是不动，优秀的业务表现都应该得到奖励。同样地，即使我们的股价飙升，平庸的表现也不该获得特别奖励。而且，“表现”的定义会因业务的基本经济特征而有所不同：有些经理人享受着并非自己创造的顺风，有些则要在不可避免的逆风中拼搏。",[14,654,655],{},"在这套制度下，奖励有时也相当可观。在我们的各个业务部门中，高级经理人有时能拿到基本薪资五倍甚至更多的激励奖金，看来1986年有一位经理的奖金可能超过200万美元。（但愿如此。）我们的奖金不设上限，奖金的潜力也不受层级限制。如果业绩说明了一切，一个相对较小的业务部门的经理完全可以比一个较大部门的经理赚得更多。我们还认为，资历和年龄不应该影响激励薪酬（尽管它们有时会影响基本薪酬）。一个打击率0.300的20岁小伙子，对我们来说跟一个同样水平的40岁老将价值一样大。",[14,657,658],{},"显然，伯克希尔的所有经理人都可以用他们的奖金（或其他资金，包括借来的钱）在公开市场上购买我们的股票。很多人也确实这么做了——有些人现在持有大量的伯克希尔股份。通过接受直接购买所伴随的风险和资金成本，这些经理人真正站到了所有者的位置上。",[14,660,661],{},"现在，让我们终于——回到这三项业务上来：",[14,663,664],{},"在内布拉斯加家具店，我们最根本的优势在于极低的运营成本，这使得我们能够常年为客户提供家居用品市场上最佳的性价比。它是全美同类商场中规模最大的一家。尽管本已低迷的农业经济在1985年大幅恶化，这家店仍然轻松刷新了销售纪录。我也很高兴地向各位报告，家具店的董事长罗斯·布鲁姆金 (Rose Blumkin)——传奇的”B夫人“——92岁高龄依然在店里保持着我们谁也跟不上的节奏。她一周工作七天，在店里跑来跑去做买卖。我希望各位来奥马哈的时候能到店里去看看她，她会像激励我一样激励你们。",[14,666,667],{},"在喜诗糖果，我们的单店销量继续遥遥领先于我们所知的任何竞争对手。尽管享有无可比拟的消费者认可度，但行业整体趋势并不乐观，我们的同店销售磅数持续下滑。这对每磅成本构成了压力。我们目前只愿意小幅提价，除非能稳住单店销售磅数，否则利润率将会收窄。",[14,669,670],{},"在新闻业务方面，增加广告量同样困难重重。虽然1985年广告总量有所增加，但增量主要来自夹报广告。ROP广告（即印在我们自己版面上的广告）则在下滑。夹报广告的利润远低于ROP广告，也更容易受到竞争冲击。1985年新闻报再次很好地控制了成本，我们的家庭渗透率继续保持在极高水平。",[14,672,673],{},"这三项业务最不用担心的就是管理层。在喜诗糖果，我们有查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins)——我们买下公司那天就让他掌管，选择他至今仍是我们最好的商业决策之一。在新闻报，我们有斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey)，一位同样出色的经理人。斯坦跟我们共事了17年，每一次被赋予更大的责任，他非凡的商业才能就更加彰显一分。在家具店，我们拥有令人惊叹的布鲁姆金家族——B夫人、路易 (Louie)、罗恩 (Ron)、欧文 (Irv) 和史蒂夫 (Steve)——一个三代人的管理奇迹。",[14,675,676],{},"能与这样的管理者共事，我觉得自己无比幸运。在专业上我对他们佩服之至，在私下里他们也是我的好朋友。",[57,678,679],{"id":679},"保险业务",[14,681,682],{},"下表是我们年报中常见表格的更新版本，列示了保险行业的两项关键指标：",[70,684,685,698],{},[73,686,687],{},[76,688,689,692,695],{},[79,690,691],{},"年份",[79,693,694],{},"保费收入年增长率 (%)",[79,696,697],{},"保单分红后综合比率",[92,699,700,711,722,733,744,755,766,777,788,799,810,821,832,843],{},[76,701,702,705,708],{},[97,703,704],{},"1972",[97,706,707],{},"10.2",[97,709,710],{},"96.2",[76,712,713,716,719],{},[97,714,715],{},"1973",[97,717,718],{},"8.0",[97,720,721],{},"99.2",[76,723,724,727,730],{},[97,725,726],{},"1974",[97,728,729],{},"6.2",[97,731,732],{},"105.4",[76,734,735,738,741],{},[97,736,737],{},"1975",[97,739,740],{},"11.0",[97,742,743],{},"107.9",[76,745,746,749,752],{},[97,747,748],{},"1976",[97,750,751],{},"21.9",[97,753,754],{},"102.4",[76,756,757,760,763],{},[97,758,759],{},"1977",[97,761,762],{},"19.8",[97,764,765],{},"97.2",[76,767,768,771,774],{},[97,769,770],{},"1978",[97,772,773],{},"12.8",[97,775,776],{},"97.5",[76,778,779,782,785],{},[97,780,781],{},"1979",[97,783,784],{},"10.3",[97,786,787],{},"100.6",[76,789,790,793,796],{},[97,791,792],{},"1980",[97,794,795],{},"6.0",[97,797,798],{},"103.1",[76,800,801,804,807],{},[97,802,803],{},"1981",[97,805,806],{},"3.9",[97,808,809],{},"106.0",[76,811,812,815,818],{},[97,813,814],{},"1982",[97,816,817],{},"4.4",[97,819,820],{},"109.7",[76,822,823,826,829],{},[97,824,825],{},"1983",[97,827,828],{},"4.5",[97,830,831],{},"111.9",[76,833,834,837,840],{},[97,835,836],{},"1984（修订后）",[97,838,839],{},"9.2",[97,841,842],{},"117.9",[76,844,845,848,851],{},[97,846,847],{},"1985（预估）",[97,849,850],{},"20.9",[97,852,853],{},"118",[14,855,856],{},[530,857,858],{},"数据来源：Best’s Aggregates and Averages",[14,860,861],{},"综合比率是总保险成本（已发生的赔付加上费用）与保费收入的比值：低于100表示承保盈利，高于100表示承保亏损。",[14,863,864],{},"1985年保险业的整体业绩颇为不寻常。保费收入增长势头强劲。如果承保损失按照前几年的正常速度增长——即高出通胀率几个百分点——综合比率本该大幅下降。但1985年的赔付损失并不配合，跟1984年一样。尽管这两年通货膨胀明显放缓，承保损失却反常地加速增长——1984年增长16%，1985年更是惊人地增长了17%。当年赔付损失的增速超出通胀率13个百分点以上，创下了近代的纪录。",[14,866,867],{},"灾难并非这次赔付成本激增的主因。没错，1985年飓风的数量确实不同寻常，但1984和1985年所有灾难造成的总损失约为保费收入的2%，这个比例并不异常。投保的汽车、房屋、雇主或其他”风险单位”的数量也没有暴增。",[14,869,870],{},"赔付数字急剧上升的部分原因是1985年全行业大幅补提了损失准备金。当各家公司公布年度业绩时，场面就像一场忏悔大会：保险经理们大喊着”我有罪，我有罪”，争先恐后地承认前几年准备金拨备不足。这些集体修正显著影响了1985年的赔付数字。",[14,872,873],{},"赔付激增中一个更令人不安的因素是”社会性”或”司法性”通胀的加速。在陪审团和法官评估责任和损害赔偿时，保险公司的支付能力正变得越来越具有压倒性的重要性。无论保单条款怎么写、事实真相如何、先例如何，越来越多的人瞄准了保险公司这个”大口袋”，而且总能得逞。",[14,875,876],{},"这种司法通胀是保险业未来的一张”鬼牌”，使得预测变得困难。尽管如此，短期前景还是不错的。保费增长在1985年全年不断加速（各季度增幅估计分别为15%、19%、24%和22%），除非发生超级巨灾，1986年行业的综合比率应该会大幅下降。",[14,878,879],{},"然而盈利的改善恐怕难以持久。两个经济原理注定了这一点。第一，大宗商品型企业只有在价格以某种方式固定或产能短缺的时候才能取得良好的盈利水平。第二，当前景开始改善且资金充裕时，管理者们会迅速增加产能。",[14,881,882],{},"在1982年的年报中，我曾详细讨论过保险业的大宗商品特性。普通投保人不太在乎产品之间的差异，只关注价格。几十年来，一种类似卡特尔的行业惯例维持着高价，但这种安排已经一去不复返了。保险产品现在的定价方式与自由市场中任何其他商品完全一样：产能紧张时，价格就能赚钱；否则就不行。",[14,884,885],{},"目前许多保险业务线的产能确实紧张——不过在保险业，与大多数行业不同，“产能”是一个心态概念，而非物理事实。保险公司可以承保任何他们觉得舒服的业务量，唯一的约束来自监管机构和行业权威评级机构Best’s的压力。管理层和监管层的舒适度与资本挂钩。更多的资本意味着更大的底气，进而意味着更多的产能。在典型的大宗商品行业，比如铝或钢铁，增加产能需要漫长的准备周期。而在保险业，资本可以即刻到位。因此，任何产能短缺都可能在短时间内被消除。",[14,887,888],{},"这正是目前正在发生的事情。1985年大约有15家保险公司筹集了超过30亿美元的资金，积蓄资本以便在当前的好价位上尽可能多地承接业务。1986年以来这种融资趋势更是急剧加速。",[14,890,891],{},"如果产能继续以这种速度增加，用不了多久就会出现激烈的杀价竞争，随之而来的是盈利下滑。当盈利下滑的时候，罪魁祸首是1985和1986年那些大举融资的公司，而不是198X年那些杀价的公司。（不过批评者也应该体谅：正如我们纺织业的例子所示，市场经济的动力使得每一家保险公司做出的决策对其自身而言看起来都是明智的，但从行业整体来看，这些决策却在集体削减盈利水平。）",[14,893,894],{},"在过去的年报中，我曾告诉各位，伯克希尔强大的资本状况——堪称业界之最——有朝一日将使我们在保险市场中拥有明显的竞争优势。随着市场的收紧，这一天已经到来。在经历了长期的停滞之后，我们的保费收入去年增长了两倍多。伯克希尔的财务实力（以及我们不论顺境逆境始终保持这种实力的纪录）如今已成为我们争取优质业务的重要资产。",[14,896,897],{},"我们正确地预见到许多大型保险和再保险买家会”飞向质量”——他们终于认识到保单不过是一张欠条，而在1985年，他们手中的许多欠条都无法兑现了。如今这些买家被伯克希尔的雄厚资本实力所吸引。但还有一个我们没有预见到的发展：我们承保巨大风险的能力也在吸引客户上门，使我们在市场中脱颖而出。",[14,899,900],{},"要理解这一点，你需要了解一些关于巨额风险的背景知识。传统上，许多保险公司都愿意承接这类业务。然而，他们之所以敢这么做，几乎总是基于再保险安排——公司自身只保留很小一部分风险，而将大部分风险转嫁（“分出”）给再保险公司。举个例子，一张提供2,500万美元保障的董事及高管责任险（“D&O”）保单。通过各种”超额损失”再保险合同，出单公司可能只保留每笔损失的前100万美元，超出部分至2,400万美元的损失责任全部由再保险公司承担。用行话来说，一家公司出单总额很大但保留的净额很小。",[14,902,903],{},"在任何再保险安排中，一个关键问题是保费应如何在各个风险”层级”之间分配。拿我们的D&O保单来说，出单公司保留多少保费来补偿其承担的前100万美元风险才算合理？又该转付多少保费给再保险公司来补偿它们承担的100万至2,500万美元之间的风险？",[14,905,906],{},"解决这个问题的一个方法可以称为帕特里克·亨利 (Patrick Henry) 法则：“我只有一盏灯照亮脚下的路，那就是经验之灯。”换句话说，过去再保险公司需要获得总保费的多少比例，才能公平地补偿它们实际承担的赔付损失？",[14,908,909],{},"不幸的是，经验之灯对再保险公司来说向来照得不够亮，因为它们的许多业务都是”长尾”型的，也就是说要等很多年才能知道真正的损失是多少。而且最近，这盏灯不仅暗淡，还严重地误导了人。也就是说，法院倾向于给予既巨额又缺乏先例的赔偿裁决，使得再保险公司根据过去数据进行的通常推断变成了灾难的配方。扔掉帕特里克·亨利，请出波戈 (Pogo)：“未来已不是从前的那个未来了。”",[14,911,912],{},"近年来，再保险业务中不断攀升的不确定性，加上许多经验不足的新进者涌入，使得承保净额小的出单公司如鱼得水：它们能够保留远远超出其实际承担风险比例的保费。这样一来，出单公司有时能在整体上（出单公司加再保险公司合计）明显亏损的业务中反而赚钱。（这种结果并不一定是故意的：对于更高风险层级最终会产生的成本，出单公司通常并不比再保险公司知道得更多。）在那些变化剧烈、赔付飙升的保险业务线中，这种不平等尤为突出——比如职业过失责任险、D&O险、产品责任险等等。在这种情况下，出单公司在保费总额已经严重不足的情况下仍然热衷于大量签单，也就不足为奇了。",[14,914,915],{},"1984年某家巨额异常风险领域的领军企业的财务报告，就很好地说明了出单公司与其再保险公司之间的业绩差距有多大。那一年，这家公司承接了约60亿美元的业务，自留了大约25亿美元的保费（约40%），其余35亿美元分给了再保险公司。在自留的部分，该公司的承保损失不到2亿美元——这在当年是非常好的成绩。与此同时，分出的那部分却让再保险公司蒙受了超过15亿美元的损失。也就是说，出单公司的综合比率远低于110，而参与完全相同保单的再保险公司的综合比率却高达140以上。这个结果并非自然灾害造成的，而是来自日常的保险赔付损失（不过发生的频率和金额都令人震惊）。该公司1985年的报告尚未出炉，但我预计这种严重失衡的情况仍在继续。",[14,917,918],{},"这样的情况持续几年之后，即使是最迟钝的再保险公司也会失去兴趣，尤其是在那些保费分配根本无法粗略估算的爆炸性业务线上。再保险公司的行为最后变得就像马克·吐温 (Mark Twain) 笔下的那只猫：坐过一次热炉子之后，它再也不会坐了——但它连冷炉子也不敢坐了。再保险公司在长尾意外险方面遭遇了太多不愉快的意外，以至于许多公司决定（也许是正确的）彻底退出这个领域，无论价格多么诱人。因此，某些重要业务线的再保险产能出现了急剧萎缩。",[14,920,921],{},"这一变化使许多出单公司承受了巨大压力。它们再也不能像一两年前那样轻松地一次又一次地让再保险公司为每张保单承担数千万美元的风险了，而它们自身也没有足够的资本和\u002F或意愿来独自承接大额风险。对许多出单公司来说，承保总额已经大幅缩水到接近净额——而净额往往是非常小的。",[14,923,924],{},"在伯克希尔，我们从来不玩这种”分出去赚差价”的游戏。直到最近，这让我们在某些业务线上处于严重劣势。但现在风水轮流转了：我们有承保能力，而别人没有。只要我们认为价格合理，我们愿意承接除最大保险公司之外任何人都不敢接的净保额。例如，我们完全愿意在单一事件中承担1,000万美元的自有资金损失风险，只要我们认为价格合理且该风险与我们已承保的其他风险没有显著的相关性。很少有保险公司愿意在单一事件上承担一半的风险——然而就在不久前，只要几乎所有损失都由再保险公司承担，许多公司甚至愿意承接五到十倍于此的保单。",[14,926,927],{},"1985年年中，我们最大的保险子公司国民保险公司在三期保险业周刊上刊登广告，公开表明愿意承保巨大风险。广告只征集大额保单：最低保费100万美元。这则广告收到了令人瞩目的600份回复，最终产生了约5,000万美元的保费。（先别鼓掌：这些都是长尾业务，至少要过五年我们才能知道这次营销上的成功是否也是承保上的成功。）如今，寻找大额净承保能力的保险经纪人总会首先想到我们的保险子公司。",[14,929,930],{},"正如我说过的，这段供应紧张的时期终将过去；保险公司和再保险公司还会回到低价竞争的老路上。但在一两年内，我们的保险业务在几个领域应该能有不错的表现。迈克·戈德伯格 (Mike Goldberg) 对保险运营做了许多重要改进（本人此前的管理不善为他提供了充足的改进空间）。最近他在招聘极具潜力的年轻管理人才方面尤为成功。1986年他们将有机会大显身手。",[14,932,933],{},"我们的综合比率有所改善——从1984年的134%降至1985年的111%——但仍然反映着过去的遗留问题。去年我向各位坦白了我在损失准备金方面所犯的重大错误，并承诺每年更新损失调整的数字。我做出这个承诺的时候，自然以为未来的表现会大有改善。到目前为止事实并非如此。去年的损失调整详情见报告第50-52页。数据显示1984年底的准备金严重不足，跟前几年的情况如出一辙。",[14,935,936],{},"唯一的亮点是，1984年暴露出的准备金不足几乎全部发生在再保险领域——而且很大程度上集中在几年前已经停止的少数几份合同上。不过这种解释让我想起多年前通用再保险 (General Reinsurance) 公司时任董事长讲给我的一个小故事。他说，每年他的经理人都会告诉他，“要不是佛罗里达的飓风”或者”要不是中西部的龙卷风”，他们就会有非常出色的一年。最后他实在受不了，把大家召集到一起，建议他们干脆成立一个新部门——叫做”要不是保险公司”——专门用来归集那些他们事后不想算进去的业务。",[14,938,939],{},"不管是保险还是其他行业，“要不是”这个词应该从词典里删掉。既然你要上场比赛，就必须把对手在九局中得的每一分都算进去。一个总把”要不是”挂在嘴上、然后大谈从错误中吸取教训的经理人，可能恰恰错过了唯一真正重要的教训——问题不在于犯了什么错，而在于犯错的是谁。",[14,941,942],{},"当然，业务中犯错在所难免，聪明的管理者会努力从中汲取正确的教训。但诀窍在于，大部分教训最好是从别人的经历中学来的。那些过去习惯从亲身经历中学习的管理者，将来往往还是会继续从亲身经历中”学习”。",[14,944,945],{},"伯克希尔持有38%股权的盖可保险 (GEICO) 在1985年的保费增长和投资业绩方面表现出色，但以其一贯的高标准来看，承保结果却不太理想。私家车保险和住宅保险是全行业中唯一在这一年业绩显著恶化的重要险种。盖可也未能幸免，尽管它的成绩远好于几乎所有主要竞争对手。",[14,947,948],{},"杰克·伯恩 (Jack Byrne) 在年中离开盖可，出任消防员基金保险的掌门人，留下比尔·斯奈德 (Bill Snyder) 任董事长和路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson) 任副董事长。杰克力挽狂澜拯救盖可于破产边缘的表现堪称非凡，他的努力为伯克希尔带来了巨大的收益。我们欠他一份大恩情。",[14,950,951],{},"同样值得我们感激的是杰克的另一项成就，这是大多数杰出领导者都做不到的：他找到了能力跟他一样出色的继任者。通过发掘、吸引和培养比尔和路易，杰克让他的管理贡献远远延续到了他的任期之后。",[57,953,954],{"id":954},"消防员基金保险份额分担再保险合约",[14,956,957],{},"绝不轻易放过一张饭票，我们跟着杰克·伯恩来到了消防员基金保险公司（“FFIC”），他在那里担任控股公司的董事长兼CEO。",[14,959,960],{},"1985年9月1日，我们成为FFIC集团全部有效业务（不包括其为非关联公司承保的再保险）7%的参与者。合同为期四年，规定在合同期间我们承担的损失和费用与FFIC按比例分摊。如果合同不展期，此后我们将不再参与任何在续业务。但在此后很多年里，我们仍将为1985年9月1日至1989年8月31日期间发生的损失中我们应承担的7%向FFIC付款。",[14,962,963],{},"根据合同，FFIC及时将保费汇给我们，我们也及时向FFIC偿付其已支付的费用和赔款。这样，我们应占份额产生的资金就由我们持有并用于投资。作为协议的一部分，我可以就一般投资策略向FFIC提供咨询。但我不参与FFIC具体的投资决策，伯克希尔也不参与该公司承保活动的任何方面。",[14,965,966],{},"目前FFIC的业务量约为30亿美元，随着费率上涨规模还可能进一步扩大。该公司1985年9月1日的未到期保费准备金为13.24亿美元，因此在合同生效时将其中的7%即9,270万美元转给了我们。我们同时支付给他们2,940万美元，以补偿他们在转移保费上已经发生的承保费用。FFIC的所有业务均由国民保险公司承保，但其中的七分之二会转给韦斯科金融保险公司（“Wes-FIC”），这是一家由我们持股80%的韦斯科金融公司 (Wesco Financial Corporation) 新成立的公司。查理·芒格在报告第60-62页对Wes-FIC和再保险业务发表了一些有趣的看法。",[14,968,969],{},"在第41页的保险业务表格中，我们新增了一行，标为”主要份额分担合约”。1985年FFIC合同的结果就列在那里，不过由于业务刚起步，这些数字只是非常粗略的估计。",[14,971,972],{},"年底之后，我们又获得了一份新的份额分担合约，1986年的保费规模预计超过5,000万美元。我们希望发展更多此类业务，而行业状况也有利于此：有相当多的公司产生的业务量超过了它们自身能够审慎处理的范围。我们的财务实力使我们成为这些公司理想的合作伙伴。",[57,974,975],{"id":975},"股票投资",[14,977,978],{},"下表列示了1985年底我们持有的有价证券净头寸。所有市值超过2,500万美元的持仓均已列出，韦斯科金融和内布拉斯加家具店少数股东权益对应的部分已剔除。",[70,980,981,997],{},[73,982,983],{},[76,984,985,988,991,994],{},[79,986,987],{},"股份数量",[79,989,990],{},"公司",[79,992,993],{},"成本（千美元）",[79,995,996],{},"市值（千美元）",[92,998,999,1013,1027,1041,1055,1069,1083,1097,1109,1122],{},[76,1000,1001,1004,1007,1010],{},[97,1002,1003],{},"1,036,461",[97,1005,1006],{},"联合出版公司 (Affiliated Publications, Inc.)",[97,1008,1009],{},"$3,516",[97,1011,1012],{},"$55,710",[76,1014,1015,1018,1021,1024],{},[97,1016,1017],{},"900,800",[97,1019,1020],{},"美国广播公司 (American Broadcasting Companies, Inc.)",[97,1022,1023],{},"54,435",[97,1025,1026],{},"108,997",[76,1028,1029,1032,1035,1038],{},[97,1030,1031],{},"2,350,922",[97,1033,1034],{},"比阿特丽斯食品公司 (Beatrice Companies, Inc.)",[97,1036,1037],{},"106,811",[97,1039,1040],{},"108,142",[76,1042,1043,1046,1049,1052],{},[97,1044,1045],{},"6,850,000",[97,1047,1048],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO Corporation)",[97,1050,1051],{},"45,713",[97,1053,1054],{},"595,950",[76,1056,1057,1060,1063,1066],{},[97,1058,1059],{},"2,379,200",[97,1061,1062],{},"汉迪哈曼公司 (Handy & Harman)",[97,1064,1065],{},"27,318",[97,1067,1068],{},"43,718",[76,1070,1071,1074,1077,1080],{},[97,1072,1073],{},"847,788",[97,1075,1076],{},"时代公司 (Time, Inc.)",[97,1078,1079],{},"20,385",[97,1081,1082],{},"52,669",[76,1084,1085,1088,1091,1094],{},[97,1086,1087],{},"1,727,765",[97,1089,1090],{},"华盛顿邮报公司 (The Washington Post Company)",[97,1092,1093],{},"9,731",[97,1095,1096],{},"205,172",[76,1098,1099,1101,1103,1106],{},[97,1100],{},[97,1102],{},[97,1104,1105],{},"267,909",[97,1107,1108],{},"1,170,358",[76,1110,1111,1113,1116,1119],{},[97,1112],{},[97,1114,1115],{},"所有其他普通股持仓",[97,1117,1118],{},"7,201",[97,1120,1121],{},"27,963",[76,1123,1124,1126,1131,1136],{},[97,1125],{},[97,1127,1128],{},[461,1129,1130],{},"普通股合计",[97,1132,1133],{},[461,1134,1135],{},"$275,110",[97,1137,1138],{},[461,1139,1140],{},"$1,198,321",[14,1142,1143],{},"我们之前提到过，在过去十年里投资环境已经发生了变化——从一个伟大企业完全不受赏识的环境，转变为它们得到充分认可的环境。华盛顿邮报公司（“WPC”）就是一个绝佳的例子。",[14,1145,1146],{},"我们在1973年中期买入了全部的WPC持仓，买入价不超过当时每股商业价值的四分之一。计算这个价格\u002F价值比率并不需要什么独到的洞见。大多数证券分析师、媒体经纪人和媒体高管都会和我们一样，将WPC的内在商业价值估算在4亿到5亿美元之间。而它仅1亿美元的股票市值天天公布在那里，人人可见。我们的优势其实在于态度：我们从本杰明·格雷厄姆那里学到，成功投资的关键是在市场价格大幅低于内在商业价值时买入优质企业的股票。",[14,1148,1149],{},"而在1970年代初，大多数机构投资者在决定买入或卖出价格时，认为企业价值根本不重要。现在看来这简直不可思议。但当时这些机构正被知名商学院的学者们所迷惑，这些学者鼓吹一种新兴理论：股票市场是完全有效的，因此计算企业价值——甚至思考本身——在投资活动中毫无意义。（我们非常感谢这些学者：在智力竞赛中——无论是桥牌、国际象棋还是选股——还有什么比对手被教导”思考是浪费精力”更有利的呢？）",[14,1151,1152],{},"在整个1973年和1974年，WPC的经营表现依然出色，内在价值持续增长。然而到1974年底，我们持有的WPC股份却亏损了约25%，市值为800万美元，而我们的成本是1,060万美元。一年前我们认为便宜得离谱的东西，现在变得更加便宜了。以其无限的”智慧”，市场将WPC的股价打压到了内在价值的20%以下。",[14,1154,1155],{},"你们都知道这个故事的美好结局。WPC的CEO凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆 (Kay Graham) 有头脑、有勇气以这样的低价为公司大量回购股份，同时也具备将企业价值大幅提升所需的管理才能。与此同时，投资者开始认识到这家企业非凡的经济特质，股价逐渐回归内在价值。于是，我们经历了价值回归”三连击”：公司的商业价值大幅攀升；由于股票回购，每股商业价值的增速更快；随着折价收窄，股价的涨幅又超越了每股商业价值的增长。",[14,1157,1158],{},"除了1985年按比例回购卖回给公司的股份外，我们1973年买入的WPC股份一股也没有卖过。回购所得加上年底持仓的市值合计为2.21亿美元。",[14,1160,1161],{},"如果当初我们把1,060万美元投资于1973年中期市场上最受追捧的六七家媒体公司中的任何一家，到年底我们的持仓市值大约在4,000万到6,000万美元之间。我们的收益将远远超过大盘——这反映了媒体行业非凡的经济特质。而我们通过持有WPC额外获得的约1.6亿美元，绝大部分来自凯瑟琳的管理决策相对于大多数媒体公司管理层的卓越之处。她令人叹为观止的商业成就在很大程度上没有被报道，但在伯克希尔的股东中间不应被忽视。",[14,1163,1164],{},"我们收购大都会 (Capital Cities) 的交易，要求我在1986年初离开WPC的董事会。但只要美国联邦通信委员会 (FCC) 的法规允许，我们打算无限期地持有WPC的股票。我们预期WPC的商业价值将以合理的速度增长，我们也知道它的管理层既能干又以股东利益为导向。然而，市场目前对该公司的估值已超过18亿美元，其价值不可能再以当初市值仅1亿美元时的速度增长了。由于我们其他持仓的市场价格同样被大幅推高，整个投资组合面临着同样大幅缩小的增长潜力。",[14,1166,1167],{},"你会注意到年底我们持有大量比阿特丽斯食品 (Beatrice Companies) 的股份。这是一笔短期的套利持仓——实际上是资金的一个临时停靠站（虽然不是完全安全的，因为交易有时会失败并造成重大损失）。当我们有闲钱但缺乏投资想法时，偶尔会进入套利领域，但我们只参与已经公开宣布的并购交易。如果这些目前用于短期套利的资金能找到一个长期的归宿，我们会高兴得多。但目前来看前景渺茫。",[14,1169,1170],{},"年底，我们旗下保险子公司持有约4亿美元的免税债券，其中按摊余成本计算有1.94亿美元是华盛顿公用电力供应系统 (WPPSS) 第一、二、三期项目的债券。我在去年已经详细讨论过这项投资，也解释了为什么在尘埃落定之前我们不会披露进一步的买卖操作（遵循我们在股票投资上的一贯政策）。年底我们在WPPSS债券上的未实现收益为6,200万美元，其中大约三分之一来自债券价格的普遍上涨，其余则来自投资者对WPPSS一、二、三期项目更加正面的看法。我们每年从WPPSS债券获得的免税利息收入约为3,000万美元。",[57,1172,1174],{"id":1173},"大都会abc","大都会\u002FABC",[14,1176,1177],{},"年后不久，伯克希尔以每股172.50美元的价格购买了300万股大都会\u002FABC公司（“Cap Cities”）的股票，这是1985年3月初做出投资承诺时的市场价格。多年来我一直公开称赞Cap Cities的管理层：我认为它是美国所有上市公司中最好的。汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy) 和丹·伯克 (Dan Burke) 不仅是伟大的管理者，更是那种你会想把女儿嫁给他的人。能与他们为伍是我的荣幸——也非常有趣，认识他们的人都会明白。",[14,1179,1180],{},"我们的股票投资帮助Cap Cities筹集了35亿美元收购美国广播公司 (American Broadcasting Companies) 所需的资金。对Cap Cities来说，ABC是一项重大业务，其财务表现在未来几年可能不会太亮眼。这一点也不让我们操心——我们可以非常耐心。（不管天赋和努力有多高，有些事情就是需要时间：你让九个女人怀孕，也不可能让孩子一个月就生出来。）",[14,1182,1183],{},"为了表明我们的信心，我们签订了一项非同寻常的协议：在相当长的一段时期内，由担任CEO的汤姆（或丹，若他是CEO的话）代为行使我们股份的投票权。这项安排是由查理和我主动提出的，不是汤姆。我们还在出售股份方面对自己施加了各种限制。这些限制的目的是确保我们持有的大宗股份不会在未经管理层同意的情况下被出售给任何大股东（或有意成为大股东的人），类似于我们几年前在盖可和华盛顿邮报主动发起的安排。",[14,1185,1186],{},"由于大宗股份交易往往能获得溢价，有些人可能觉得我们设置这些限制损害了伯克希尔的财务利益。我们的看法恰恰相反。我们认为这些安排能够增进这些企业——以及我们作为所有者——的长期经济利益。有了这些安排，与我们结盟的一流管理者就能将全部精力集中在经营业务和为股东创造最大长期价值上。这显然比让管理层因为”走马灯式的资本家”企图将公司”放到台面上”而分心要好得多。（当然，有些管理者把自身利益凌驾于公司和股东之上，理应被整顿——但在投资时，我们尽量远离这种类型。）",[14,1188,1189],{},"如今，股权广泛分散的上市公司面临着企业不稳定的固有风险。任何时候都可能冒出一个大股东，嘴上说着安人心的漂亮话，肚子里却打着不怀好意的算盘。通过像我们经常做的那样锁定自己持有的大宗股权，我们旨在为可能缺乏稳定性的地方注入稳定。这种确定性，加上优秀的管理者和好的业务，是获得丰厚财务回报的沃土。这就是我们做出这些安排的经济考量。",[14,1191,1192],{},"人的因素同样重要。我们不希望那些我们喜爱和钦佩的管理者——他们欢迎了我们的重大财务投入——会因为我们的大量持股而夜不能寐，担心可能发生什么意外。我已经告诉他们不会有任何意外，而这些协议是伯克希尔公司层面的承诺，白纸黑字。这也意味着即使我个人对伯克希尔事务的参与提前结束（所谓”提前”，我指的是活不到三位数的任何年龄），管理者们也无需担忧。",[14,1194,1195],{},"我们购买Cap Cities的价格是全价，反映了近年来市场对媒体股票和媒体资产的极大热情（就某些资产收购而言，这种热情已近乎狂热）。这里没有便宜货可捡。不过，我们对Cap Cities的投资使我们与一个卓越的业务组合和一群杰出的人结成了联盟——而且我们喜欢这种大手笔参与的机会。",[14,1197,1198],{},"当然，你们中有些人可能会纳闷：既然你们的董事长在1978至1980年间以每股43美元的价格卖掉了同一家公司的股票，怎么现在又以172.50美元的高价买回来呢——这可真是”灵光一闪”的经典之作。我料到各位会有这个问题，所以1985年大部分时间都在想一个漂亮的答案来自圆其说。",[14,1200,1201],{},"请再给我一点时间。",[57,1203,1204],{"id":1204},"收购斯科特费泽",[14,1206,1207],{},"年后不久我们以约3.2亿美元收购了位于克利夫兰的斯科特费泽公司 (The Scott & Fetzer Company)。（此外，斯科特费泽约9,000万美元的原有债务继续保留。）在本报告的下一节中，我将描述伯克希尔希望收购什么样的企业。斯科特费泽就是一个典型——容易理解、规模够大、管理出色、盈利丰厚。",[14,1209,1210],{},"该公司旗下有17项业务，年销售额约7亿美元，其中许多是各自领域的佼佼者。大多数业务的资本回报率都相当不错甚至非常出色。一些知名产品包括柯比 (Kirby) 家用清洁系统、坎贝尔豪斯菲尔德 (Campbell Hausfeld) 空压机、以及韦恩 (Wayne) 燃烧器和水泵。",[14,1212,1213],{},"世界图书公司 (World Book, Inc.) 约占斯科特费泽销售额的40%，利润占比更高一些，是该公司最大的业务部门。它同时也是行业中遥遥领先的龙头，每年百科全书的销量超过最接近的竞争对手的两倍。事实上，它在美国的销量超过四大竞争对手的总和。",[14,1215,1216],{},"查理和我对世界图书的运营特别感兴趣，因为我们认为它的百科全书非同一般。我当了25年的忠实粉丝（兼使用者），现在我的孙辈也像当年我的孩子们一样在翻阅这套书。世界图书一直被教师、图书馆员和消费者购买指南评为最有用的百科全书，而它的售价却低于任何主要竞争对手。世界图书公司旗下另一款产品《儿童手工》(Childcraft) 也具有类似的价值。世界图书公司这种卓越品质与实惠价格的结合，是促使我们愿意按斯科特费泽提出的价格进行收购的重要原因——尽管直销行业中许多公司的业绩都在下滑。",[14,1218,1219],{},"斯科特费泽同样吸引我们的还有其担任了9年CEO的拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey)。拉尔夫上任时，公司旗下有多达31项业务——那是1960年代并购狂潮的产物。他大刀阔斧地处置了许多不合适或盈利潜力有限的业务，但他对原有业务组合进行合理化整合的专注度，并没有高到让他在1978年世界图书可供收购时与之失之交臂的地步。拉尔夫在经营和资本配置方面的记录堪称一流，我们非常高兴能与他共事。",[14,1221,1222],{},"斯科特费泽收购案的过程很有意思，在我们介入之前经历了不少波折。该公司早在1984年初就宣布有意出售。一家大型投资银行花了好几个月向数十家潜在买家游说，引起了几家的兴趣。最后在1985年中期，一个以员工持股计划 (ESOP) 大量参与为特色的出售方案获得了股东批准。然而在临门一脚的时候出了问题，该方案最终被否决了。",[14,1224,1225],{},"我一直通过报纸追踪这场企业奥德赛。10月10日，在ESOP方案流产之后，我给素不相识的拉尔夫写了一封简短的信。我说我们很欣赏公司过去的经营记录，不知道他有没有兴趣跟我们聊聊。10月22日查理和我在芝加哥与拉尔夫共进晚餐，隔周便签署了收购合同。",[14,1227,1228],{},"收购斯科特费泽，加上保险业务的大幅增长，应该会使1986年的收入突破20亿美元，比1985年翻一番还多。",[57,1230,1231],{"id":1231},"其他事项",[14,1233,1234],{},"斯科特费泽的收购案很好地说明了我们对待并购的”随遇而安”态度。我们没有总体战略，没有企业战略规划师为我们提供社会经济趋势方面的真知灼见，也没有专门的人员去研究推销者和中介机构端上来的大量方案。我们只是盼望好事降临——一旦出现，我们就果断行动。",[14,1236,1237],{},"为了给命运搭把手，我们再次刊登常年的”征求企业”小广告。与去年版本唯一的变化是第(1)条：由于我们继续希望任何收购都能对伯克希尔的财务业绩产生明显的影响，我们提高了最低利润要求。",[14,1239,1240],{},"我们寻求符合以下条件的企业：",[1242,1243,1244,1248,1251,1254,1257,1260],"ol",{},[1245,1246,1247],"li",{},"具有一定的规模（税后净利润至少达到1,000万美元）；",[1245,1249,1250],{},"表现出持续稳定的盈利能力（我们对未来预期或困境反转的企业没有兴趣）；",[1245,1252,1253],{},"企业在很少或没有负债的情况下，取得了良好的股本回报率；",[1245,1255,1256],{},"拥有现成的管理团队（我们无法提供）；",[1245,1258,1259],{},"简单易懂的商业模式（如果涉及大量技术，我们搞不懂）；",[1245,1261,1262],{},"提供明确的报价（我们不想在价格不确定的情况下浪费双方的时间，哪怕是初步接触）。",[14,1264,1265],{},"我们不会进行敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并且会非常快速地答复——通常在五分钟之内——我们是否感兴趣。我们倾向于现金交易，但如果我们获得的内在商业价值与付出的一样多，也会考虑发行股票。事实上，鉴于伯克希尔股价最近的上涨，涉及发行股票的交易可能相当可行。我们欢迎潜在的卖方通过联系与我们有过合作经历的人来了解我们。对于合适的企业——和合适的人——我们能提供一个好归宿。",[14,1267,1268],{},"另一方面，我们经常收到根本不符合我们标准的收购提案：新创企业、困境反转型企业、拍卖式的出售，以及经纪人们最爱说的”你们见个面一定会找到合作机会”。这些对我们没有丝毫吸引力。",[562,1270],{},[14,1272,1273],{},"除了上述买下整家企业的收购之外，我们也有兴趣通过协商买入大型但非控股的股权，就像我们投资Cap Cities那样。这类投资只有在我们对该企业的商业模式以及管理层的能力和品格都非常有信心的情况下，才会对我们有吸引力。我们偏好大手笔的交易：在特殊情况下我们可能会做小到5,000万美元（甚至更小）的投资，但我们更喜欢数倍于此的规模。",[562,1275],{},[14,1277,1278],{},"大约96.8%的有效股份参与了伯克希尔1985年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐出的总额为400万美元，共有1,724家慈善机构受益。去年我们进行了一次全民投票，以征询各位对该计划以及我们股利政策的看法。（我们深知问题的措辞可能影响答案，因此尽量使用中性的措辞。）选票和投票结果刊登在第69页的附录中。我认为可以这样公平地概括各位的回应：高度支持现行政策，而且作为群体偏好——考虑到人们倾向于支持现状的因素——随着我们资产价值的增长，大家倾向于增加年度慈善捐赠的规模。",[14,1280,1281],{},"我们建议新股东阅读第66-67页关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。如果你希望参与未来的计划，我们强烈建议你立即确保股份登记在实际持有人名下，而不是以”街头”名义或代持人名义登记。未在1986年9月30日之前完成登记的股份将无法参与1986年的计划。",[562,1283],{},[14,1285,1286],{},"五年前，根据1969年《银行控股公司法》的要求，我们被迫出售在伊利诺伊州罗克福德的伊利诺伊国民银行信托公司 (The Illinois National Bank and Trust Company) 的股份。我们的做法相当独特：我们宣布了罗克福德银行控股公司 (Rockford Bancorp Inc.)（伊利诺伊国民银行的母公司）与伯克希尔之间的换股比率，然后让我们每一位股东——除了我自己——自行决定是否将全部、部分或不换任何伯克希尔股份换成罗克福德的股份。剩下没人要的罗克福德股票归我，所以我持有的罗克福德股份数量取决于你们的决定。当时我说过：“这种方法体现了世界上最古老、最基本的公平分配方式。就像你小时候分蛋糕一样，一个人切，另一个人先选。我尽量把蛋糕切得公平，但你们先选要哪一块。”",[14,1288,1289],{},"去年秋天，伊利诺伊国民银行被售出。当罗克福德银行控股的清算完成时，其股东获得的每股收入大致相当于银行出售时伯克希尔的每股内在价值。我很高兴看到五年后的结果表明，当年那块蛋糕切得相当公平。",[14,1291,1292],{},"去年我在年报中为我们的年度股东大会做了一番宣传，各位也响应了邀请。在我们3,000多名注册股东中，有超过250位到场参加。与会者的表现跟往年一样出色，提出的问题正是你期望从聪明且关心公司的所有者那里听到的。你可以参加很多公司的股东大会，都见不到我们这样的人群。（乔治亚州州长莱斯特·马多斯 (Lester Maddox) 因为糟糕透顶的监狱制度而受到批评时说：“解决办法很简单，我们只需要更高素质的犯人就行了。”要提升股东大会的质量，道理是一样的。）",[14,1294,1295],{},"我希望各位来参加今年的股东大会，将于5月20日在奥马哈举行。今年将有一项变化：在效忠另一种软饮料48年之后，你们的董事长做出了一个史无前例的行为转变——改喝新款的樱桃可口可乐了。从此以后，它将成为伯克希尔·哈撒韦年度股东大会的官方饮料。",[14,1297,1298],{},"记得带上钱来：B夫人承诺，如果各位在会后光顾内布拉斯加家具店，将会享受到大量折扣优惠。",[14,1300,1301],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,1303,1304],{},"董事长",[14,1306,1307],{},"1986年3月4日",{"title":1309,"searchDepth":1310,"depth":1310,"links":1311},"",2,[1312,1314,1315,1316,1317,1318,1319,1320,1321],{"id":59,"depth":1313,"text":59},3,{"id":501,"depth":1313,"text":501},{"id":578,"depth":1313,"text":579},{"id":679,"depth":1313,"text":679},{"id":954,"depth":1313,"text":954},{"id":975,"depth":1313,"text":975},{"id":1173,"depth":1313,"text":1174},{"id":1204,"depth":1313,"text":1204},{"id":1231,"depth":1313,"text":1231},"致股东信",null,"1985年巴菲特致股东信，宣布大都会ABC收购、斯科特费泽收购及消防员基金合作","md",{},true,56,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1324},"1985 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1383,"slug":1384,"category":1345,"order":1381},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1386,"slug":1387,"category":1349,"order":1381},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1389,"slug":1390,"category":1340,"order":1391},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1393,"slug":1394,"category":1345,"order":1391},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1396,"slug":1397,"category":1349,"order":1391},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1399,"slug":1400,"category":1340,"order":1401},"1961年中 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1513,"slug":1514,"category":1345,"order":1511},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1516,"slug":1517,"category":1349,"order":1511},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1519,"slug":1520,"category":1322,"order":1521},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":1523,"slug":1524,"category":1345,"order":1521},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1526,"slug":1527,"category":1349,"order":1521},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1529,"slug":1530,"category":1340,"order":1531},"1965年11月 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周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1556,"slug":1557,"category":1349,"order":1551},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1559,"slug":1560,"category":1322,"order":1561},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1563,"slug":1564,"category":1345,"order":1561},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1566,"slug":1567,"category":1349,"order":1561},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1569,"slug":1570,"category":1340,"order":1571},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1573,"slug":1574,"category":1345,"order":1571},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1576,"slug":1577,"category":1349,"order":1571},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1579,"slug":1580,"category":1340,"order":1581},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1583,"slug":1584,"category":1345,"order":1581},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1586,"slug":1587,"category":1349,"order":1581},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1589,"slug":1590,"category":1340,"order":1591},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1593,"slug":1594,"category":1345,"order":1591},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1596,"slug":1597,"category":1349,"order":1591},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1599,"slug":1600,"category":1322,"order":1601},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1603,"slug":1604,"category":1345,"order":1601},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1606,"slug":1607,"category":1349,"order":1601},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1609,"slug":1610,"category":1340,"order":1611},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1613,"slug":1614,"category":1345,"order":1611},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1616,"slug":1617,"category":1349,"order":1611},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1619,"slug":1620,"category":1340,"order":1621},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1623,"slug":1624,"category":1345,"order":1621},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1626,"slug":1627,"category":1349,"order":1621},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1629,"slug":1630,"category":1340,"order":1631},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1633,"slug":1634,"category":1345,"order":1631},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1636,"slug":1637,"category":1349,"order":1631},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1639,"slug":1640,"category":1340,"order":1641},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1643,"slug":1644,"category":1345,"order":1641},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1646,"slug":1647,"category":1349,"order":1641},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1649,"slug":1650,"category":1322,"order":1651},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1653,"slug":1654,"category":1345,"order":1651},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1656,"slug":1657,"category":1349,"order":1651},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1659,"slug":1660,"category":1340,"order":1661},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1663,"slug":1664,"category":1345,"order":1661},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1666,"slug":1667,"category":1349,"order":1661},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1669,"slug":1670,"category":1340,"order":1671},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1673,"slug":1674,"category":1345,"order":1671},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1676,"slug":1677,"category":1322,"order":1678},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1680,"slug":1681,"category":1345,"order":1678},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1683,"slug":1684,"category":1340,"order":1685},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1687,"slug":1688,"category":1345,"order":1685},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1690,"slug":1691,"category":1340,"order":1692},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1694,"slug":1695,"category":1345,"order":1692},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1697,"slug":1698,"category":1340,"order":1699},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1701,"slug":1702,"category":1345,"order":1699},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1704,"slug":1705,"category":1340,"order":1706},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1708,"slug":1709,"category":1345,"order":1706},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1711,"slug":1712,"category":1322,"order":1713},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1715,"slug":1716,"category":1345,"order":1713},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1718,"slug":1719,"category":1340,"order":1720},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1722,"slug":1723,"category":1345,"order":1720},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1725,"slug":1726,"category":1322,"order":1727},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1729,"slug":1730,"category":1345,"order":1727},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1732,"slug":1733,"category":1322,"order":1734},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1736,"slug":1737,"category":1345,"order":1734},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1739,"slug":1740,"category":1322,"order":1741},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1743,"slug":1744,"category":1345,"order":1741},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1746,"slug":1747,"category":1322,"order":1748},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1750,"slug":1751,"category":1345,"order":1748},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1753,"slug":1754,"category":1322,"order":1755},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1757,"slug":1758,"category":1345,"order":1755},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1760,"slug":1761,"category":1322,"order":1762},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1764,"slug":1765,"category":1345,"order":1762},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1767,"slug":1768,"category":1322,"order":1769},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1771,"slug":1772,"category":1345,"order":1769},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1774,"slug":1775,"category":1322,"order":1776},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1778,"slug":1779,"category":1345,"order":1776},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1781,"slug":1782,"category":1322,"order":1783},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1785,"slug":1786,"category":1345,"order":1783},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1788,"slug":1789,"category":1322,"order":1790},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1792,"slug":1793,"category":1345,"order":1790},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1795,"slug":1796,"category":1322,"order":1797},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1799,"slug":1800,"category":1345,"order":1797},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1802,"slug":1803,"category":1322,"order":1804},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1806,"slug":1807,"category":1345,"order":1804},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1809,"slug":1810,"category":1322,"order":1811},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1813,"slug":1814,"category":1345,"order":1811},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1816,"slug":1817,"category":1322,"order":1818},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1820,"slug":1821,"category":1345,"order":1818},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":5,"slug":1332,"category":1322,"order":1328},{"title":1824,"slug":1825,"category":1345,"order":1328},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1827,"slug":1828,"category":1322,"order":1829},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1831,"slug":1832,"category":1345,"order":1829},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1834,"slug":1835,"category":1322,"order":1836},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1838,"slug":1839,"category":1345,"order":1836},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1841,"slug":1842,"category":1322,"order":1843},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1845,"slug":1846,"category":1345,"order":1843},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1848,"slug":1849,"category":1322,"order":1850},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1852,"slug":1853,"category":1345,"order":1850},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1855,"slug":1856,"category":1322,"order":1857},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1859,"slug":1860,"category":1345,"order":1857},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1862,"slug":1863,"category":1322,"order":1864},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1866,"slug":1867,"category":1345,"order":1864},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1869,"slug":1870,"category":1322,"order":1871},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1873,"slug":1874,"category":1345,"order":1871},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1876,"slug":1877,"category":1322,"order":1878},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1880,"slug":1881,"category":1345,"order":1878},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1883,"slug":1884,"category":1322,"order":1885},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1887,"slug":1888,"category":1345,"order":1885},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1890,"slug":1891,"category":1322,"order":1892},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1894,"slug":1895,"category":1345,"order":1892},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1897,"slug":1898,"category":1322,"order":1899},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1901,"slug":1902,"category":1345,"order":1899},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1904,"slug":1905,"category":1322,"order":1906},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1908,"slug":1909,"category":1345,"order":1906},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1911,"slug":1912,"category":1322,"order":1913},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1915,"slug":1916,"category":1345,"order":1913},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1918,"slug":1919,"category":1322,"order":1920},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1922,"slug":1923,"category":1345,"order":1920},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1925,"slug":1926,"category":1322,"order":1927},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1929,"slug":1930,"category":1345,"order":1927},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1932,"slug":1933,"category":1322,"order":1934},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1936,"slug":1937,"category":1345,"order":1934},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1939,"slug":1940,"category":1322,"order":1941},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1943,"slug":1944,"category":1345,"order":1941},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1946,"slug":1947,"category":1322,"order":1948},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1950,"slug":1951,"category":1345,"order":1948},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1953,"slug":1954,"category":1322,"order":1955},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1957,"slug":1958,"category":1345,"order":1955},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1960,"slug":1961,"category":1322,"order":1962},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1964,"slug":1965,"category":1345,"order":1962},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1967,"slug":1968,"category":1322,"order":1969},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1971,"slug":1972,"category":1345,"order":1969},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1974,"slug":1975,"category":1322,"order":1976},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1978,"slug":1979,"category":1345,"order":1976},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1981,"slug":1982,"category":1322,"order":1983},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1985,"slug":1986,"category":1345,"order":1983},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1988,"slug":1989,"category":1322,"order":1990},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1992,"slug":1993,"category":1345,"order":1990},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1995,"slug":1996,"category":1322,"order":1997},"2010 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巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2083,"slug":2084,"category":1345,"order":2081},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2086,"slug":2087,"category":1322,"order":2088},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2090,"slug":2091,"category":1345,"order":2088},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2093,"slug":2094,"category":1322,"order":2095},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2097,"slug":2098,"category":1345,"order":2095},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2100,"slug":2101,"category":1322,"order":2102},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2104,"slug":2105,"category":1345,"order":2102},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2107,"slug":2108,"category":1322,"order":2109},"2024 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