[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3442},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1906,"library-sidebar-dao":2908,"library-sidebar-models":3210},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1892,"date":1893,"description":1894,"extension":1895,"meta":1896,"navigation":1897,"order":1898,"path":1899,"seo":1900,"seoDescription":1894,"seoTitle":1901,"slug":1902,"stem":1903,"__hash__":1904,"_collection":1905},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1986 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1868},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,75,78,81,84,87,90,506,509,511,514,517,520,523,526,529,532,534,537,540,543,545,548,551,554,556,559,562,565,568,570,573,576,579,582,585,588,591,594,597,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,624,627,630,633,636,639,642,645,648,771,777,780,783,786,789,792,795,798,801,804,807,810,813,816,819,822,825,828,831,833,836,839,842,845,931,934,937,940,943,946,949,952,955,958,961,964,967,970,973,976,1124,1127,1130,1133,1136,1140,1143,1146,1149,1152,1155,1158,1161,1164,1167,1170,1173,1176,1179,1182,1185,1188,1191,1194,1197,1200,1203,1206,1209,1212,1215,1218,1221,1224,1227,1230,1233,1236,1239,1242,1245,1248,1251,1254,1257,1260,1263,1266,1269,1272,1275,1277,1280,1283,1286,1289,1292,1296,1299,1533,1538,1541,1544,1547,1550,1553,1556,1559,1562,1565,1803,1806,1822,1825,1828,1830,1833,1836,1839,1842,1845,1848,1851,1854,1857,1859,1862,1865],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1986-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,21,22],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,24,25],{},"1986年本公司的净资产增加了4.925亿美元，增幅为26.1%。自现任管理层接手的22年以来，每股账面价值由19.46美元增长到2,073.06美元，年复合增长率为23.3%。在计算每股账面价值时，分子与分母同样重要：过去22年间，公司净资产增长了106倍，而流通在外的股份却增加不到1%。",[14,27,28],{},"在过去的年报中，我多次提到大多数公司的账面价值与其内在商业价值——对股东真正重要的数字——之间存在巨大差异。不过就我们自身而言，过去十多年来账面价值一直是内在价值一个合理且略偏保守的替代指标。也就是说，伯克希尔的内在价值适度超过账面价值，两者之间的比率相当稳定。",[14,30,31],{},"好消息是，1986年我们内在价值的增长百分比可能超过了账面价值的增长。我说”可能”，是因为内在价值本身是个模糊的数字：就我们自己的情况而言，两个同样了解本公司的人所做出的估值，差距可能超过10%。",[14,33,34],{},"我们内在价值相对于账面价值的大幅改善，很大程度上要归功于旗下主要业务的关键经理人的出色表现。这些经理人——布鲁姆金家族 (the Blumkins)、迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg)、海德曼家族 (the Heldmans)、查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins)、斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey)和拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey)——多年来在几乎不需要额外资本投入的情况下（保险业务除外），大幅提升了各自业务的盈利能力。这种成就所创造的经济价值，也就是”商誉“，并不会反映在我们资产负债表的净资产或每股账面价值中。1986年，这部分未被记录的价值增长相当可观。",[14,36,37],{},"讲完好消息，该说坏消息了。坏消息是我本人的表现配不上这些经理人。他们在各自岗位上干得出色、拼命创造现金的时候，我却没能有效地运用他们创造出来的资金。",[14,39,40],{},"我们的副董事长查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger)跟我其实只有两项主要工作。第一项是吸引并留住优秀的经理人来管理我们的各项业务。这项工作其实没那么难。通常这些经理人是随着我们收购的公司一起过来的，早在与我们结识之前，他们就已经在各种商业环境中证明了自己的才华。他们在认识我们之前就已经是管理明星了，而我们的主要贡献就是不去妨碍他们。这个道理似乎很简单：如果我的工作是管理一支高尔夫球队，而杰克·尼克劳斯 (Jack Nicklaus)或阿诺德·帕尔默 (Arnold Palmer)愿意替我效力，我可不会对他们的挥杆动作指手画脚。",[14,42,43],{},"我们有些关键经理人本身就相当富有（我们希望每位经理人都能如此），但这丝毫不影响他们继续工作的热情：他们工作是因为热爱自己做的事，享受出色业绩带来的成就感。他们总是站在所有者的角度来思考问题（这是我们对经理人最高的评价），并且对业务的方方面面都充满热忱。",[14,45,46],{},"（这种职业热情有一个经典原型：一位天主教裁缝省吃俭用了许多年，终于攒够盘缠去梵蒂冈朝圣。他回来之后，教区的教友们特地举行集会，想要听听他对教宗的第一手描述。“快告诉我们，”热切的教友们问道，“教宗到底是个什么样的人？”我们这位主人公惜字如金地说：“四十四码腰，中等身材。”）",[14,48,49],{},"查理跟我都知道，好球员能让任何球队经理看起来都很称职。我们信奉奥美广告 (Ogilvy & Mather)创始人大卫·奥格威 (David Ogilvy)的理念：“如果我们每个人都雇用比自己矮小的人，我们将变成一家侏儒公司。但如果我们每个人都雇用比自己高大的人，我们将成为一家巨人公司。”",[14,51,52],{},"我们这种管理风格的一个附带好处，就是让伯克希尔可以非常容易地扩展业务。我们读过不少管理学著作，精确规定一个主管到底能管几个下属，但在我们看来这些理论毫无意义。当你手下有一群正直能干、对自己的事业充满热情的经理人时，你可以同时管十几个甚至更多，还有时间打个午觉。反过来，如果向你汇报的人中哪怕只有一个人不诚实、不称职或者对工作没兴趣，那一个就够你受的了。只要经理人的品质与现在这批一样出色，查理跟我管理比现在多一倍的人都不成问题。",[14,54,55],{},"我们打算继续只与我们喜欢和敬佩的人合作。这个原则不仅能最大限度地提高获得好成绩的机会，还能确保我们度过无比愉快的时光。反过来说，天天跟让你反胃的人共事，就像为了钱跟不爱的人结婚一样——在任何情况下这都不是个好主意，如果你本来就已经很有钱了，那简直就是疯了。",[14,57,58],{},"查理跟我的第二项工作是资本配置，这对伯克希尔来说比大多数公司都更具挑战性。原因有三：第一，我们的盈利能力高于平均水平；第二，我们把赚到的钱全部留存下来；第三，幸运的是我们旗下的业务大多只需很少的增量资本就能保持竞争力并实现增长。很显然，一家年赚23%并将收益全部留存的公司，其资本配置对未来业绩的影响远远大于一家年赚10%且将一半收益分配给股东的公司。如果我们的留存收益——以及我们主要被投资公司盖可保险 (GEICO)和大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC)的留存收益——被低效使用的话，伯克希尔的经营状况将会迅速恶化。而在一家每年净资产只增长5%的公司里，资本配置决策虽然同样重要，但对公司经营状况的影响就慢得多了。",[14,60,61],{},"1986年伯克希尔的资本配置工作颇为棘手。我们确实完成了一项收购——菲希海默兄弟公司 (Fechheimer Bros. Company)，后面会详细讨论。菲希海默是一家经济效益优秀的公司，经营者恰好就是我们喜欢与之共事的那种人。不过它的规模相对较小，只用到了伯克希尔净资产的大约2%。",[14,63,64],{},"与此同时，在公开市场买股票方面我们也没什么新想法。仅仅在几年前，我们还能轻松地以非常合理的价格将大笔资金投入优秀的企业。所以1986年我们在资本配置上的主要动作就是偿还债务和囤积现金。这两件事虽说比死强，但也实在让人提不起兴致来翻跟头。如果查理跟我在未来几年的资本配置工作上继续交白卷，伯克希尔的增长速度将会明显放缓。",[14,66,67],{},"我们会继续在市场上寻找符合我们标准的企业，运气好的话每隔几年能收购一家。但收购规模必须足够大，才能对我们的业绩产生实质性的帮助。以目前的股票市场状况，我们几乎看不到什么值得为保险公司买入的股票。市场终究会发生重大变化——这一点可以确定——总有一天又会轮到我们上场。不过我们完全不知道那一天会在什么时候到来。",[14,69,70],{},"有一点再怎么强调也不为过（虽然你们肯定觉得我已经够啰嗦了）：即使在有利条件下，由于规模的扩大，我们的回报率也必然会大幅下降。我们告诉过你们，我们希望能实现平均15%的股本回报率，我们仍然保持这一目标，尽管本报告后文会描述一些不利的税法变化。要实现这一回报率，我们的净资产在未来十年必须增加72亿美元。如此巨大的增长只有在不久的将来我们能找到几个又大又好的投资机会时才有可能实现。查理跟我不能保证成果，但我们向你们保证，我们会将全部精力集中在这个目标上。",[72,73,74],"h3",{"id":74},"报告收益来源",[14,76,77],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。今年的表格与去年有几处不同。由于收购了斯科特费泽 (Scott Fetzer)和菲希海默 (Fechheimer)，我们新增了四条业务线。斯科特费泽旗下两大业务——世界图书百科全书 (World Book)和柯比吸尘器 (Kirby)——各自单独列示。斯科特费泽的其他14项业务汇总在”斯科特费泽——多元化制造”栏中。SF金融集团 (SF Financial Group)是一家同时持有世界图书和柯比应收账款的信贷公司，被列入”其他”栏目。同时，由于伯克希尔整体规模扩大了许多，我们也取消了对几项较小业务的单独报告。",[14,79,80],{},"在表中，商誉摊销不计入具体业务，而是汇总为一个单独项目，原因详见1983年年报附录。（包含商誉讨论在内的历年信件合集可索取。）斯科特费泽和菲希海默的收购都产生了会计商誉，这就是1986年商誉摊销费用增加的原因。",[14,82,83],{},"另外，按照通用会计准则 (GAAP)的要求，收购斯科特费泽还需要进行其他重大的购买法会计调整。合并财务报表上当然采用的是GAAP数字。但在我们看来，GAAP数字对投资者和经理人而言未必是最有用的。因此，下表中各业务单元所列示的是购买法调整前的收益数字——实际上就是假如我们没有买下这些公司，它们本来会报告的收益。",[14,85,86],{},"本信附录中讨论了我们偏好这种列示方式的原因。这个附录永远替代不了一本刺激的小说，也绝非必读之作。不过我知道，在我们6,000名股东中，有那么些人会对我的会计论文感到兴奋——我希望你们两位都能喜欢这个附录。",[14,88,89],{},"在第41-43页的业务分部数据和第45-49页的管理层讨论部分，你们可以找到更多关于我们业务的信息。我强烈建议各位阅读这些章节，以及查理·芒格致韦斯科金融 (Wesco)股东的信，信中描述了这家子公司的各项业务，从第50页开始。",[91,92,93,112],"table",{},[94,95,96],"thead",{},[97,98,99,102,105,107,110],"tr",{},[100,101],"th",{},[100,103,104],{},"税前收益",[100,106,104],{},[100,108,109],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[100,111,109],{},[113,114,115,131,144,157,174,191,208,224,239,256,271,288,305,320,335,350,367,384,401,413,430,445,460,477,489],"tbody",{},[97,116,117,121,124,127,129],{},[118,119,120],"td",{},"（千美元）",[118,122,123],{},"1986",[118,125,126],{},"1985",[118,128,123],{},[118,130,126],{},[97,132,133,136,138,140,142],{},[118,134,135],{},"经营收益来源:",[118,137],{},[118,139],{},[118,141],{},[118,143],{},[97,145,146,149,151,153,155],{},[118,147,148],{},"保险集团:",[118,150],{},[118,152],{},[118,154],{},[118,156],{},[97,158,159,162,165,168,171],{},[118,160,161],{},"承保收益",[118,163,164],{},"$ (55,844)",[118,166,167],{},"$ (44,230)",[118,169,170],{},"$ (29,864)",[118,172,173],{},"$ (23,569)",[97,175,176,179,182,185,188],{},[118,177,178],{},"净投资收益",[118,180,181],{},"107,143",[118,183,184],{},"95,217",[118,186,187],{},"96,440",[118,189,190],{},"79,716",[97,192,193,196,199,202,205],{},[118,194,195],{},"布法罗新闻报",[118,197,198],{},"34,736",[118,200,201],{},"29,921",[118,203,204],{},"16,918",[118,206,207],{},"14,580",[97,209,210,213,216,219,222],{},[118,211,212],{},"菲希海默（1986年6月3日收购）",[118,214,215],{},"8,400",[118,217,218],{},"—",[118,220,221],{},"3,792",[118,223,218],{},[97,225,226,229,232,234,237],{},[118,227,228],{},"柯比吸尘器",[118,230,231],{},"20,218",[118,233,218],{},[118,235,236],{},"10,508",[118,238,218],{},[97,240,241,244,247,250,253],{},[118,242,243],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[118,245,246],{},"17,685",[118,248,249],{},"12,686",[118,251,252],{},"7,192",[118,254,255],{},"5,181",[97,257,258,261,264,266,269],{},[118,259,260],{},"斯科特费泽——多元化制造",[118,262,263],{},"25,358",[118,265,218],{},[118,267,268],{},"13,354",[118,270,218],{},[97,272,273,276,279,282,285],{},[118,274,275],{},"喜诗糖果",[118,277,278],{},"30,347",[118,280,281],{},"28,989",[118,283,284],{},"15,176",[118,286,287],{},"14,558",[97,289,290,293,296,299,302],{},[118,291,292],{},"韦斯科金融——保险业务除外",[118,294,295],{},"5,542",[118,297,298],{},"16,018",[118,300,301],{},"5,550",[118,303,304],{},"9,684",[97,306,307,310,313,315,318],{},[118,308,309],{},"世界图书百科全书",[118,311,312],{},"21,978",[118,314,218],{},[118,316,317],{},"11,670",[118,319,218],{},[97,321,322,325,328,331,333],{},[118,323,324],{},"商誉摊销",[118,326,327],{},"(2,555)",[118,329,330],{},"(1,475)",[118,332,327],{},[118,334,330],{},[97,336,337,340,343,345,348],{},[118,338,339],{},"购买法会计——其他费用",[118,341,342],{},"(10,033)",[118,344,218],{},[118,346,347],{},"(11,031)",[118,349,218],{},[97,351,352,355,358,361,364],{},[118,353,354],{},"利息费用及提前偿还罚金",[118,356,357],{},"(23,891)",[118,359,360],{},"(14,415)",[118,362,363],{},"(12,213)",[118,365,366],{},"(7,288)",[97,368,369,372,375,378,381],{},[118,370,371],{},"股东指定捐赠",[118,373,374],{},"(3,997)",[118,376,377],{},"(4,006)",[118,379,380],{},"(2,158)",[118,382,383],{},"(2,164)",[97,385,386,389,392,395,398],{},[118,387,388],{},"其他",[118,390,391],{},"20,770",[118,393,394],{},"6,744",[118,396,397],{},"8,685",[118,399,400],{},"3,725",[97,402,403,405,407,409,411],{},[118,404],{},[118,406],{},[118,408],{},[118,410],{},[118,412],{},[97,414,415,418,421,424,427],{},[118,416,417],{},"经营收益合计",[118,419,420],{},"195,857",[118,422,423],{},"125,449",[118,425,426],{},"131,464",[118,428,429],{},"92,948",[97,431,432,435,437,440,442],{},[118,433,434],{},"通用食品特别股息",[118,436,218],{},[118,438,439],{},"4,127",[118,441,218],{},[118,443,444],{},"3,779",[97,446,447,450,452,455,457],{},[118,448,449],{},"华盛顿邮报特别股息",[118,451,218],{},[118,453,454],{},"14,877",[118,456,218],{},[118,458,459],{},"13,851",[97,461,462,465,468,471,474],{},[118,463,464],{},"出售证券收益",[118,466,467],{},"216,242",[118,469,470],{},"468,903",[118,472,473],{},"150,897",[118,475,476],{},"325,237",[97,478,479,481,483,485,487],{},[118,480],{},[118,482],{},[118,484],{},[118,486],{},[118,488],{},[97,490,491,494,497,500,503],{},[118,492,493],{},"所有实体——收益合计",[118,495,496],{},"$ 412,099",[118,498,499],{},"$ 613,356",[118,501,502],{},"$ 282,361",[118,504,505],{},"$ 435,815",[14,507,508],{},"如各位所见，1986年经营收益大幅改善。部分改善来自保险业务，我会在后面单独讨论。菲希海默也会另外说明。我们其他主要业务的表现如下：",[72,510,195],{"id":195},[14,512,513],{},"布法罗新闻报 (The Buffalo News)的经营业绩继续体现出斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey)超一流的管理能力。连续第三年，工时大幅下降，其他成本也受到严格控制。因此，尽管我们的广告费涨幅远低于大多数主要报纸，1986年的经营利润率仍然大幅提升。",[14,515,516],{},"我们控制成本的努力丝毫没有减弱对新闻品质的投入。我们的”新闻版面比”（报纸总版面中新闻所占的比例）持续维持在50%，我们相信这在全美同等规模或更大的主流报纸中是最高的。",[14,518,519],{},"同类报纸的平均新闻版面比大约是40%。40%和50%之间的差距比表面看起来要大得多：一份有30页广告且新闻版面比为40%的报纸，每天提供20页新闻；而我们的报纸在同样30页广告的情况下，提供30页新闻。因此，在同等广告量的条件下，我们提供给读者的新闻量至少多出50%。",[14,521,522],{},"我们相信，这种对新闻的大力投入正是布法罗新闻报在全美前50大报纸中拥有最高工作日渗透率（在报纸主要发行区域内每天购买报纸的家庭比例）的重要原因之一。我们的周日版渗透率更是令人印象深刻，同样排名第一。十年前，为布法罗地区服务的唯一一份周日报纸——信使快报 (Courier-Express)——发行量为27.1万份，渗透率约63%。信使快报已为该地区服务数十年，其渗透率与许多大城市的水平相当，当时被认为是一个”自然”的上限，准确反映了当地居民对周日报纸的需求。",[14,524,525],{},"我们的周日版于1977年底创刊。现在的渗透率已达83%，每周日的发行量比十年前的信使快报多出约10万份——尽管在这十年间我们市场区域的人口不增反减。在近年的历史中，没有任何一个长期拥有本地周日报的城市，经历过接近布法罗这样的渗透率增长。",[14,527,528],{},"尽管拥有超高的市场接受度，我们的经营利润率几乎可以确定已经见顶。1986年底新闻纸价格大幅上涨，1987年我们的广告费涨幅相比同业仍将较为温和。不过即使利润率出现明显收缩，我们也不会降低新闻版面比。",[14,530,531],{},"写这段文字的时候，恰好是我们买下布法罗新闻报整整十周年。它带给我们的财务回报远远超出预期，非财务方面的回报同样如此。我们对这份报纸的敬意——在买下时就已经很高——自收购以来持续增长，对编辑默里·莱特 (Murray Light)的敬意和钦佩也是如此。正是他精心编辑的产品赢得了社区如此非凡的认可。默里和斯坦在报纸经历财务逆境和诉讼的艰难岁月中发挥了至关重要的作用，而这种努力丝毫没有因为后来的繁荣而减弱。查理和我对他们心怀感激。",[72,533,243],{"id":243},[14,535,536],{},"了不起的布鲁姆金家族继续在内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)创造商业奇迹。竞争者来来去去（主要是去），但B夫人和她的子孙们照样一路向前。1986年净销售额增长10.2%，达到1.32亿美元。十年前销售额是4,400万美元，即便在当时，NFM看起来就已经把大奥马哈地区能做的生意都做完了。鉴于NFM如此显著的市场主导地位、奥马哈缓慢的人口增长，以及NFM所销售的商品温和的通胀率，这家店怎么可能持续取得如此大幅的销售增长呢？唯一合理的解释就是：凭借日益远播的天天低价和最齐全的品种，NFM这家独此一家的店铺，其市场辐射范围在不断扩大。为了迎接未来的增长，NFM正在将距离门店几百码远的仓库扩容约三分之一。",[14,538,539],{},"93岁高龄的B夫人，内布拉斯加家具店的董事长，其销售能力和拼劲依然技压群雄，超过我见过的所有经理人。她每周七天，从开门到打烊，天天在店里。想跟她竞争，你需要的勇气远比你的判断力更多。",[14,541,542],{},"大家很容易忽略B夫人传奇中我认为最关键的一课：以奥马哈为根据地、93岁的董事长，还远未到达巅峰。请把这个事实好好记下来，等到2024年伯克希尔年度股东大会投票时再拿出来参考。",[72,544,275],{"id":275},[14,546,547],{},"喜诗糖果 (See’s)的销售趋势比近几年有所改善。总销售磅数增长了约2%。（各位巧克力迷可以幻想一下这个数字：我们每年卖出超过1.2万吨。）以磅数计量的同店销售额基本持平。在此前的六年中，同店磅数一直在下降，我们只能靠增开新店来维持或增加总销量。但1986年格外强劲的圣诞旺季遏制了这一下滑趋势。通过稳住同店销量并大力控制成本，喜诗在仅做了最低限度的提价的情况下，仍然保持了优异的利润率。我们要感谢长期经理人查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins)取得了这一重大成就。",[14,549,550],{},"喜诗有一种独一无二的产品”个性”，它源于糖果本身的美味口感与适中定价、公司对销售渠道的全面掌控，以及店员提供的出色服务。查克理所当然地用顾客满意度来衡量自己的成功，他的这种态度感染了整个公司。很少有大型零售企业能够保持这种以客户为导向的精神，我们非常感谢查克让这种精神在喜诗保持旺盛的生命力。",[14,552,553],{},"展望未来，喜诗的利润应该能维持在目前的水平。我们会继续非常温和地提价，仅仅与预期的成本增长保持同步。",[72,555,309],{"id":309},[14,557,558],{},"世界图书百科全书 (World Book)是1986年初加入伯克希尔的斯科特费泽 (Scott Fetzer)旗下17个业务部门中最大的一个。去年我很高兴地向各位报告了斯科特费泽的业务和其经理人拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey)。一年的相处让我的热情更加高涨。拉尔夫是一位出色的商人，说话直来直去。他还为工作带来了非凡的全面性和活力：尽管管理的业务种类繁多，他对每项业务的运营状况、机遇和问题都了如指掌。而且，跟我们其他经理人一样，和拉尔夫共事是一种真正的享受。我们的好运持续不断。",[14,560,561],{},"世界图书的销量连续第四年增长，百科全书销量比1985年增长了7%，比1982年增长了45%。儿童读物的单位销量也大幅增长。",[14,563,564],{},"世界图书继续主导着美国直销百科全书市场——而且理由充分。编排精美绝伦，每页售价不到五美分，无论是青少年还是成人都觉得物超所值。有一个编辑技巧你们可能会感兴趣：世界图书按难度对超过44,000个单词进行了分级。百科全书较长的条目在开篇部分只使用最容易理解的词汇，随着阐述的深入，内容难度逐步提高。这样一来，年轻读者可以轻松而有收获地阅读，直到内容变得太难再停下来，而不是一上来就面对一堆大学水平和四年级水平的词汇混杂在一起的文章。",[14,566,567],{},"推销世界图书是一项神圣的使命。我们超过半数的在职销售人员是现任或前任教师，另有5%有图书馆工作经验。他们正确地视自己为教育工作者，而且干得非常出色。如果你家里还没有一套世界图书百科全书，我推荐你买一套。",[72,569,228],{"id":228},[14,571,572],{},"柯比吸尘器 (Kirby)同样录得连续第四年的销量增长。全球范围内，销量比1985年增长了4%，比1982年增长了33%。虽然柯比产品的价格比大多数吸尘器贵不少，但它的性能却把那些便宜货远远甩在后面（可以说是把它们”扫进了灰尘里”）。许多用了三四十年的柯比吸尘器至今仍在服役。想要最好的，就买柯比。",[14,574,575],{},"一些历史上在直销领域非常成功的公司，近年来却栽了跟头。职业女性时代的到来无疑给直销组织带来了新的挑战。但到目前为止，柯比和世界图书的应对记录可以说是相当成功的。",[14,577,578],{},"上述业务连同保险业务和菲希海默，构成了我们的主要业务板块。简短的描述绝不意味着这些业务对我们不重要。所有这些业务在过去的年报中都有讨论，由于伯克希尔的股东结构非常稳定（每年底约有98%的股份由年初就已持有的股东所拥有），我们不想过多地重复基本信息。请放心，一旦这些业务的基本经济特征或竞争地位发生重大变化，我们一定会立即向各位详细报告。总的来说，本节描述的业务可以概括为：拥有非常强大的市场地位，非常高的资本回报率，以及最优秀的管理团队。",[72,580,581],{"id":581},"菲希海默兄弟公司",[14,583,584],{},"每年在伯克希尔的年度报告中，我都会刊登一则描述我们希望收购什么类型企业的”广告”。这则广告在1986年终于有了回报。",[14,586,587],{},"去年1月15日，我收到一位辛辛那提人鲍勃·海德曼 (Bob Heldman)的来信。他是伯克希尔多年的股东，也是菲希海默兄弟公司 (Fechheimer Bros.)的董事长。在读这封信之前，我既不认识鲍勃，也不知道菲希海默。鲍勃在信中说他经营的公司符合我们的标准，建议我们见个面。等他们1985年的业绩汇总完毕后，我们就在奥马哈碰了面。",[14,589,590],{},"他向我介绍了一些公司历史：菲希海默是一家制服制造和销售企业，始创于1842年。鲍勃的父亲沃伦·海德曼 (Warren Heldman)于1941年加入该公司，随后他的儿子鲍勃和乔治 (George，现任总裁)以及他们的下一代也相继加入。在海德曼家族的管理下，企业非常成功。",[14,592,593],{},"1981年，菲希海默通过杠杆收购(LBO)被卖给了一批风险投资人，但管理层保留了部分股权。与所有杠杆收购一样，新公司一开始的负债\u002F股权比率极高。不过收购之后，公司的经营继续保持良好。到去年年初，债务已被大幅偿还，股权价值大幅增长。出于各种原因，那些风险投资人希望退出，而鲍勃因为认真研读过伯克希尔的年报，便想到了我们。",[14,595,596],{},"菲希海默恰恰就是我们喜欢收购的那种公司。它的经济记录出色，管理层才华横溢、品格高尚、热爱自己的事业，而且海德曼家族希望继续保留财务权益、与我们合伙经营。因此，我们很快以整个公司5,500万美元的估值购买了大约84%的股权。",[14,598,599],{},"这次收购的背景与我们当年收购内布拉斯加家具店非常相似：大部分股权由希望将资金另作他用的人持有；热爱经营企业的家族成员希望继续担任所有者和管理者；家族的好几代人都活跃在这家企业中，管理人才尽收眼底；而且管理层家族希望找一个不管出什么价都不会转手卖掉公司、并且让企业照旧经营的买家。菲希海默和NFM适合我们，我们也适合他们。",[14,601,602],{},"说来你们可能会觉得好笑：查理和我至今没有去过菲希海默位于辛辛那提的总部，没有看过他们的运营。（顺带说一句，这是双向的：管理喜诗糖果已经15年的查克·哈金斯也从未来过奥马哈。）如果我们的成功取决于我们通过实地视察工厂所获得的洞察，那伯克希尔可就有大麻烦了。实际上在考虑收购时，我们着力评估的是该业务的经济特征——其竞争优势与劣势——以及我们将要合作的管理者的品质。菲希海默在这两方面都十分出色。除了正值六十多岁的鲍勃和乔治——以我们的标准来看还算是年轻小伙子——他们的下一代还有加里 (Gary)、罗杰 (Roger)和弗雷德 (Fred)三人，确保了管理的连续性。",[14,604,605],{},"作为收购的典范，菲希海默只有一个缺点：规模太小。我们希望下一次收购在规模上至少是它的好几倍，但在其他各方面都是它的翻版。我们对并购对象最低年度税后利润的门槛，已经从鲍勃写信给我时的500万美元提高到了1,000万美元。",[14,607,608],{},"初战告捷之余，我们再次刊登我们的广告。如果你手上有一家符合条件的公司，请打电话给我，或者最好写封信。",[14,610,611],{},"以下是我们寻找的公司所需具备的条件：",[14,613,614],{},"（1）规模够大（税后利润至少1,000万美元），",[14,616,617],{},"（2）持续稳定的盈利能力（我们对未来预测或困境反转型公司不感兴趣），",[14,619,620],{},"（3）在很少或没有负债的情况下取得良好的股本回报率，",[14,622,623],{},"（4）自带管理层（我们提供不了），",[14,625,626],{},"（5）简单的业务（如果涉及太多高科技，我们搞不懂），",[14,628,629],{},"（6）有一个报价（在价格未知的情况下，我们不想浪费双方的时间，哪怕只是初步谈谈）。",[14,631,632],{},"我们不会进行敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并且通常在五分钟之内给出是否感兴趣的答复。我们倾向以现金交易，但如果我们所获得的内在商业价值与我们付出的一样多，也会考虑发行股份。事实上，近来伯克希尔股价上涨之后，涉及发行股份的交易可能已经相当可行。我们欢迎潜在卖方向我们过去的合作伙伴了解情况。对于好的公司和好的人才，我们绝对能提供一个好归宿。",[14,634,635],{},"另一方面，我们经常收到一些完全不符合我们标准的收购邀约：新创企业、困境反转型、拍卖式出售，还有那种在中介中永远受欢迎的——“只要你们见了面，一定能谈拢。”这些对我们没有丝毫吸引力。",[637,638],"hr",{},[14,640,641],{},"除了上述收购整家公司之外，我们也有兴趣通过协商购买大额、但非控股的股权，就像我们投资大都会\u002FABC那样。这类投资只有在我们对该企业的经济特征以及管理者的能力和品格都非常满意时，才会对我们有吸引力。我们偏好大交易：在特殊情况下可能会做小至5,000万美元的投资（甚至更小），但我们更喜欢大数倍于此的投入。",[72,643,644],{"id":644},"保险业务",[14,646,647],{},"我们照例提供行业数据表，今年扩展了两列，增加了已发生损失和GNP通胀指数。1986年保费增长与已发生损失增长之间的对比，可以说明为什么当年的承保结果大幅改善：",[91,649,650,669],{},[94,651,652],{},[97,653,654,657,660,663,666],{},[100,655,656],{},"年度",[100,658,659],{},"保费收入年增长率(%)",[100,661,662],{},"综合比率（含保户红利）",[100,664,665],{},"已发生损失年增长率(%)",[100,667,668],{},"通胀率（GNP平减指数，%）",[113,670,671,688,705,722,738,754],{},[97,672,673,676,679,682,685],{},[118,674,675],{},"1981",[118,677,678],{},"3.8",[118,680,681],{},"106.0",[118,683,684],{},"6.5",[118,686,687],{},"9.7",[97,689,690,693,696,699,702],{},[118,691,692],{},"1982",[118,694,695],{},"4.4",[118,697,698],{},"109.8",[118,700,701],{},"8.4",[118,703,704],{},"6.4",[97,706,707,710,713,716,719],{},[118,708,709],{},"1983",[118,711,712],{},"4.6",[118,714,715],{},"112.0",[118,717,718],{},"6.8",[118,720,721],{},"3.9",[97,723,724,727,730,733,736],{},[118,725,726],{},"1984",[118,728,729],{},"9.2",[118,731,732],{},"117.9",[118,734,735],{},"16.9",[118,737,678],{},[97,739,740,742,745,748,751],{},[118,741,126],{},[118,743,744],{},"22.1",[118,746,747],{},"116.5",[118,749,750],{},"16.1",[118,752,753],{},"3.3",[97,755,756,759,762,765,768],{},[118,757,758],{},"1986（估）",[118,760,761],{},"22.6",[118,763,764],{},"108.5",[118,766,767],{},"15.5",[118,769,770],{},"2.6",[14,772,773],{},[774,775,776],"em",{},"来源：贝氏保险管理报告 (Best’s Insurance Management Reports)",[14,778,779],{},"综合比率代表保险总成本（已发生损失加上费用）与保费收入的比率：比率低于100表示承保盈利，高于100表示承保亏损。将保险公司持有保户资金（即”浮存金“）所获得的投资收益考虑在内后（不含股东权益部分的投资收益），综合比率在107-112之间通常意味着总体打平。",[14,781,782],{},"保险经营的算术，如上表所示，其实一点都不复杂。当行业年保费收入仅以4%到5%的速度缓慢增长时，承保亏损必然会加剧。这不是因为车祸、火灾、暴风雨之类的事故发生得更频繁了，近来也不是一般通胀的错。如今，社会和司法通胀才是主要的元凶——上法庭的成本简直膨胀得飞快。一方面是天价赔偿判决不断涌现，另一方面是法官和陪审团倾向于将保险条款的理赔范围，扩大到远超保险公司当初承保时所设想的程度。鉴于这两种趋势都看不到缓和的迹象，我们仍然认为，保费收入年增长率必须接近10%，才能仅仅维持盈利水平不恶化，即使一般通胀率只有2%到4%。",[14,784,785],{},"如上所述，1986年行业保费收入的飙升速度甚至超过了损失成本的增长。因此，行业承保亏损大幅下降。在去年的报告中，我们预测了这一大幅改善，但同时也预测这种好光景只是昙花一现。很遗憾，这第二个预测已经被证明是准确的。行业保费增长率已经显著放缓（从1986年第一季度估计的27.1%，到第二季度的23.5%，到第三季度的21.8%，再到第四季度的18.7%），我们预计1987年还会进一步放缓。实际上到第三季度，增长率很可能跌破我10%的”均衡”水平。",[14,787,788],{},"尽管如此，1987年的承保结果——如果不被重大自然灾害所拖累的话——还是会继续大幅改善，因为价格上涨反映在收入中存在一个滞后期。实际上，收益方面的好消息总是比价格方面的好消息滞后六到十二个月。但收益的改善趋势大概到1988年底或1989年初就会结束。此后行业很可能急速走下坡路。",[14,790,791],{},"保险业的定价行为一如既往地符合大宗商品型行业的特征。只有在供给短缺时才能获得高利润，而这种状况维持不了多久。当利润的阳光开始照耀时，老牌保险公司便大量向投资者增发新股以扩充资本。此外，新成立的保险公司争相在新股发行市场以有利的价格出售股票（所谓有利，当然是对公司内部推动上市的人有利，对新股东则未必）。这些举措为未来的麻烦埋下了伏笔：产能飙升、竞争加剧、价格下跌。",[14,793,794],{},"观察保险业领袖们恳请同行在定价时展现更多”政治家风度”是件很有趣的事。“为什么，”他们问，“我们不能从历史中吸取教训，拉平波峰波谷，始终以合理的价格确保获利？”他们当然希望保费定价能像《华尔街日报》那样——一开始就定得很高，而且每年稳步上涨。",[14,796,797],{},"这种呼吁的效果，就像内布拉斯加种玉米的农夫恳请全世界的玉米同行在销售时展现更多政治家风度一样有限。我们需要的不是更多的政治家，而是更少的玉米。过去两年里，保险业通过大量融资，已经——继续用我们的比喻——大幅扩大了玉米的种植面积。由此产生的”丰收”——也就是保险承保能力的激增——对价格和利润的影响，跟农产品过剩自古以来的后果毫无二致。",[14,799,800],{},"我们自己的保险业务在1986年表现不错，1987年很可能也会如此。行业状况让我们受益不少。但我们很大一部分的成绩要归功于旗下所有保险业务的管理者迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg)的能力与努力。",[14,802,803],{},"我们的综合比率（法定基础，不含结构清偿和财务再保险）从1985年的111降至1986年的103。此外，我们的保费增长相当出色：虽然最终数据尚未出炉，但我相信在过去两年中，我们是全美前100大保险公司中增长最快的。诚然，我们的部分增长来自去年年报中描述的与消防员基金保险公司 (Fireman’s Fund)签订的大额配额合同，相关更新见查理信函第54页。但即使剔除该合同的保费，我们可能仍然排名第一。",[14,805,806],{},"有趣的是，在1985年之前的那些年里，我们是增长最慢的大型保险公司。事实上我们的规模在缩小——将来时不时还会这样。我们保费收入的大幅波动并不意味着我们在保险市场上来来去去。恰恰相反，我们是这个市场上最坚定的参与者，随时准备好以我们认为合理的价格，承保各类高限额的保险。我们保费的波动，源自其他保险公司”今天在、明天走”的行为。当大多数同行因为资本不足或被损失吓跑而”消失”时，投保人涌向我们，并发现我们随时准备好做生意。但当大批保险公司”杀回来”，把价格砍到远低于预期成本时，许多客户自然会离开我们，去享受竞争对手暂时提供的便宜价格。",[14,808,809],{},"我们对价格的坚守不会给消费者造成困扰：在我们业务量减少的时候，市场上有的是向他们抛来的低价保险。我们的做法对员工也不会造成困扰：当旗下某项通常盈利的保险业务出现周期性下滑时，我们不搞裁员。这种不裁员的政策符合我们的自身利益。如果员工担心保费收入大幅下降就会伴随大规模裁员，他们自然会不顾一切地在景气好坏时都拼命创造业务量（主要是在不景气的时候）。",[14,811,812],{},"从国民保险公司 (National Indemnity)的传统业务——通过一般代理人承保商业汽车险和一般责任险——的趋势，就可以看出其他保险公司是如何一会儿畏首畏尾、一会儿又胆大包天的。1984年第四季度，国民保险的月均保费收入约500万美元，大致维持了好几年的水平。到1986年第一季度，月保费收入已攀升至约3,500万美元。最近几个月又出现了急剧下降。目前月保费收入约为2,000万美元，随着新竞争者涌现和价格被压低，还将继续下降。讽刺的是，某些主要新竞争对手的经理人，就是几年前把我们那些老竞争对手搞破产的同一批人。通过政府强制的担保基金机制，我们还得分担那些家伙留下的未偿损失。而现在我们又看到他们换了个名字，做着同样的生意。这就是战争啊。",[14,814,815],{},"我们称之为”大型风险”的业务在1986年大幅扩张，未来对我们也将很重要。在这项业务中，我们经常承保年保费100万至300万美元甚至更高的保单。这项业务在保费收入和承保利润两方面都必然会剧烈波动，但我们一流的资本实力和愿意承保大额净保单的意愿，使我们在价格合理时成为市场上一股非常强大的力量。另一方面，由于目前的价格对我们来说不合理，我们的结构清偿业务已经接近停摆。",[14,817,818],{},"我们保险集团1986年的损失准备金变动详见第46页。这些数字显示了经过一年的理赔和进一步评估后，我们1985年底负债估计中暴露出的误差。如各位所见，去年我告诉你们的关于我们损失负债的数字，与事实相去甚远——而且这已经是连续第三年的估计错误了。如果匹诺曹的生理规则适用于我的话，我的鼻子现在大概已经能引来围观了。",[14,820,821],{},"当保险公司高管们迟迟才建立起适当的准备金时，他们往往把这称为”加强准备金”——一个听起来颇为高尚的说法。他们几乎让人觉得是在给一张本已坚实的资产负债表再多加几层保障。事实并非如此：这个词不过是一种委婉说法，更准确地应该叫做”修正之前说过的不实之词”（尽管并非有意为之）。",[14,823,824],{},"在1986年底，我们特别下了一番功夫来确保准备金的准确性。不过我们在1985年底也同样努力过。只有时间才能告诉我们，我们这次是否终于正确估计了保险负债。",[14,826,827],{},"尽管在估计准备金和行业商品化特性方面我们遭遇了不少困难，我们仍然预期我们的保险业务将会持续增长并赚取可观的利润——但前进的步伐注定是极不规则的，时不时还会冒出令人不快的重大意外。这是一个危机四伏的行业，审慎的态度必不可少。我们要牢记伍迪·艾伦 (Woody Allen)说过的话：“羊当然可以躺在狮子旁边，但最好别指望能睡个好觉。”",[14,829,830],{},"在保险业务中，我们在心态上有优势，在资本上有优势，在人才上也正在建立优势。此外我想，在运用保户浮存金进行投资方面，我们还有一些长期的竞争优势。这个行业的特性告诉我们，我们需要所有这些优势才能取得成功。",[637,832],{},[14,834,835],{},"伯克希尔持有41%股权的盖可保险 (GEICO Corporation)在1986年的表现十分出色。从全行业来看，个人险种的承保改善远不如商业险种那么显著。但几乎专做个人险种的盖可保险，综合比率降至96.9，保费收入增长了16%。盖可保险还继续回购自家股票，年底流通在外的股份比年初减少了5.5%。我们按持股比例应占的保费收入已超过5亿美元，差不多是三年前的两倍。盖可保险的业务组合是全世界保险公司中最好的，甚至比伯克希尔自己的都好得多。",[14,837,838],{},"盖可保险成功的最重要因素是极低的运营成本，这使它与数百家车险同业相比鹤立鸡群。1986年盖可保险的承保费用和损失调整费用合计仅占保费收入的23.5%。很多大公司的这一比例比它高出15个百分点。即便是好事达保险 (Allstate)和州立农业保险 (State Farm)这样庞大的直销型保险公司，成本也明显高于盖可保险。",[14,840,841],{},"盖可保险与竞争对手之间的成本差距，就像是一条护城河，保卫着一座价值连城、人人觊觎的商业城堡。没有人比盖可保险的董事长比尔·斯奈德 (Bill Snyder)更懂得这个城堡加护城河的概念。他不断通过进一步降低成本来拓宽护城河，从而捍卫和强化这一经济特许经营权。1985年到1986年间，盖可保险的总费用比率从24.1%降至前面提到的23.5%，在比尔的领导下，这一比率几乎肯定会继续下降。如果能做到这一点——同时维持住服务和承保标准——这家公司的前途将无可限量。",[14,843,844],{},"盖可保险火箭的第二级推力，由负责公司投资的副董事长路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson)提供。自1979年底以来一直是他在管理公司的投资。老实说，我作为伯克希尔的投资负责人，在汇报辛普森在盖可保险的投资业绩时总觉得有点不好意思。只因为我持有伯克希尔的控股股权，才让我在向各位展示以下数据时心里稍感踏实一点。以下是盖可保险股票投资组合的总体收益率与标普500指数的对比：",[91,846,847,859],{},[94,848,849],{},[97,850,851,853,856],{},[100,852,656],{},[100,854,855],{},"盖可保险股票投资",[100,857,858],{},"标普500指数",[113,860,861,872,882,892,902,912,921],{},[97,862,863,866,869],{},[118,864,865],{},"1980",[118,867,868],{},"23.7%",[118,870,871],{},"32.3%",[97,873,874,876,879],{},[118,875,675],{},[118,877,878],{},"5.4",[118,880,881],{},"(5.0)",[97,883,884,886,889],{},[118,885,692],{},[118,887,888],{},"45.8",[118,890,891],{},"21.4",[97,893,894,896,899],{},[118,895,709],{},[118,897,898],{},"36.0",[118,900,901],{},"22.4",[97,903,904,906,909],{},[118,905,726],{},[118,907,908],{},"21.8",[118,910,911],{},"6.2",[97,913,914,916,918],{},[118,915,126],{},[118,917,888],{},[118,919,920],{},"31.6",[97,922,923,925,928],{},[118,924,123],{},[118,926,927],{},"38.7",[118,929,930],{},"18.6",[14,932,933],{},"这些数字不仅漂亮得惊人，更重要的是取得这些成绩的方式完全正确。辛普森始终投资于价值被低估的普通股，这些股票单个来看不太可能造成永久性损失，而作为组合整体来看则接近于无风险。",[14,935,936],{},"总而言之，盖可保险是一家由杰出管理者经营的杰出企业。我们很荣幸能与他们携手共事。",[72,938,939],{"id":939},"有价证券",[14,941,942],{},"1986年，我们的保险公司购买了大约7亿美元的免税债券，到期日大多在8至12年之间。你们可能会以为这笔投入表明我们对这类债券情有独钟。不幸的是事实并非如此：充其量这些债券只是平庸的投资。在我们买入时，它们只不过是看起来最不碍眼的选择，现在看来也依然如此。（既不看好股票也不看好债券，我发现自己的口味跟好莱坞女星梅·韦斯特 (Mae West)截然相反——她曾宣称：“我只爱两种男人——外国的和本国的。”）",[14,944,945],{},"保险公司必须持有有价证券，随着资金的持续流入，我们只有五个投放方向：（1）长期普通股投资；（2）长期固定收益证券；（3）中期固定收益证券；（4）短期现金等价物；（5）短期套利交易。",[14,947,948],{},"在这几种选择中，普通股当然是最有意思的。当条件合适时——也就是当经济效益好、管理优秀的公司以远低于内在价值的价格出售时——股票有时能让你打出大满贯全垒打。但目前我们根本找不到接近我们标准的股票。这句话绝不等于我们在预测股市：我们对市场短期或中期的走向没有任何想法——从来都没有过。",[14,950,951],{},"不过我们确实知道的是，在投资界，贪婪和恐惧这两种超级传染病会永远反复爆发。这些疫情的时机不可预测。由此产生的市场异常，无论在持续时间还是程度上，同样不可预测。因此，我们从不试图预判这两种病症的到来或离去。我们的目标更为谦逊：我们只是在别人贪婪时尽量让自己恐惧，在别人恐惧时尽量让自己贪婪。",[14,953,954],{},"在我写这段文字的时候，华尔街几乎看不到一丝恐惧。到处洋溢着欢乐的气氛——这也难怪。有什么能比在一轮牛市中更令人亢奋的呢？在牛市里，股东享受到的回报与企业本身平淡的经营业绩光荣地脱了钩。但不幸的是，股票的表现不可能永远超越企业本身的业绩。",[14,956,957],{},"事实上，由于承担了沉重的交易成本和投资管理费用，股东作为一个整体，长期来看必然跑不赢他们所持有的企业。如果美国企业总体上每年能赚到12%的股本回报率，投资者最终获得的回报一定会明显低于此数。牛市可以暂时模糊数学定律，但不能废除它们。",[14,959,960],{},"我们保险公司可选的第二类投资是长期债券。除非在极特殊的情况下——例如我们在1984年年报中讨论过的华盛顿公用电力供应系统 (Washington Public Power Supply System)第1、2、3期债券——否则这类投资很难引起我们的兴趣。（年底我们持有的华盛顿公用电力债券的摊余成本为2.18亿美元，市场价值为3.1亿美元，每年为我们提供3,170万美元的免税收入。）我们对长期债券缺乏兴趣，是因为担心未来十年内可能出现严重的通货膨胀。长期来看，一国货币的走向取决于立法者的行为。这层关系对币值稳定构成持续威胁——进而也对长期债券持有人构成相应的威胁。",[14,962,963],{},"我们继续在套利领域不时投入资金。不过与大多数套利者每年参与数十个案子不同，我们只做极少数。我们限定自己只参与已公开宣布的大型交易，不去赌尚未明朗的事情。因此，我们的潜在利润通常不大；但如果运气好的话，让我们失望的次数也会很少。",[14,965,966],{},"下表所列的年末投资组合包含一项套利交易——利尔-西格勒公司 (Lear-Siegler)。此外，我们的资产负债表上还有1.45亿美元的应收款项，代表联合利华 (Unilever)在收购旁氏公司 (Chesebrough-Ponds)时欠我们的款项（我们的另一项套利持仓），几天后已经付清。套利是国库券之外短期资金的另一种存放选择——一种用更高风险换取潜在更高回报的选择。到目前为止，我们投入套利的资金所获得的回报，要比放在国库券上高出好多倍。不过话说回来，一次糟糕的经历就可能让整个记录面目全非。",[14,968,969],{},"我们也认为——虽然需要费些力气说服自己——中期免税债券可以作为短期国库券的替代品。购买这些债券，我们承担着这样的风险：如果像很可能发生的那样，我们在到期日之前就卖掉其中大部分，可能会蒙受重大损失。不过我们相信这一风险能被以下两点充分弥补：第一，与国库券相比，这些证券目前能实现高得多的税后回报；第二，出售时有可能产生总体利润而非亏损。在考虑了损失的可能性以及所有税务影响之后，我们对更高总回报的预期其实把握不大，完全可能判断错误。不过，即使我们以相当大的损失卖出这些债券，最终获得的税后回报可能仍然高于反复滚动投资国库券。",[14,971,972],{},"无论如何，各位应该知道，以目前的市场水平，我们对手中持有的股票和债券的预期回报都非常低。或许对我们来说最好的事情是：遇到一个让我们愿意以明显亏损卖掉大量债券的市场，从而将资金重新配置到那时很可能出现的好得多的股票投资机会上。我所说的债券损失会在高利率环境下发生；而同样的高利率对普通股价格的打压很可能比对中期债券更加严重。",[14,974,975],{},"下面列示的是我们1986年底市值超过2,500万美元的股票投资组合，不包含韦斯科金融 (Wesco Financial)和内布拉斯加家具店的少数股东权益部分。",[91,977,978,994],{},[94,979,980],{},[97,981,982,985,988,991],{},[100,983,984],{},"股份数量",[100,986,987],{},"公司名称",[100,989,990],{},"成本（千美元）",[100,992,993],{},"市值（千美元）",[113,995,996,1010,1024,1038,1052,1066,1076,1088,1101,1111],{},[97,997,998,1001,1004,1007],{},[118,999,1000],{},"2,990,000",[118,1002,1003],{},"大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC, Inc.)",[118,1005,1006],{},"$ 515,775",[118,1008,1009],{},"$ 801,694",[97,1011,1012,1015,1018,1021],{},[118,1013,1014],{},"6,850,000",[118,1016,1017],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO Corporation)",[118,1019,1020],{},"45,713",[118,1022,1023],{},"674,725",[97,1025,1026,1029,1032,1035],{},[118,1027,1028],{},"2,379,200",[118,1030,1031],{},"汉迪哈曼 (Handy & Harman)",[118,1033,1034],{},"27,318",[118,1036,1037],{},"46,989",[97,1039,1040,1043,1046,1049],{},[118,1041,1042],{},"489,300",[118,1044,1045],{},"利尔-西格勒 (Lear Siegler, Inc.)（套利持仓）",[118,1047,1048],{},"44,064",[118,1050,1051],{},"44,587",[97,1053,1054,1057,1060,1063],{},[118,1055,1056],{},"1,727,765",[118,1058,1059],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company)",[118,1061,1062],{},"9,731",[118,1064,1065],{},"269,531",[97,1067,1068,1070,1072,1074],{},[118,1069],{},[118,1071],{},[118,1073],{},[118,1075],{},[97,1077,1078,1080,1082,1085],{},[118,1079],{},[118,1081],{},[118,1083,1084],{},"642,601",[118,1086,1087],{},"1,837,526",[97,1089,1090,1092,1095,1098],{},[118,1091],{},[118,1093,1094],{},"所有其他普通股",[118,1096,1097],{},"12,763",[118,1099,1100],{},"36,507",[97,1102,1103,1105,1107,1109],{},[118,1104],{},[118,1106],{},[118,1108],{},[118,1110],{},[97,1112,1113,1115,1118,1121],{},[118,1114],{},[118,1116,1117],{},"普通股投资合计",[118,1119,1120],{},"$ 655,364",[118,1122,1123],{},"$ 1,874,033",[14,1125,1126],{},"我们应该指出，我们期望永久持有三项核心投资：大都会\u002FABC、盖可保险和华盛顿邮报。即使这些股票看起来明显高估，我们也不打算出售它们，正如即使有人出远高于我们认为的内在价值的价格，我们也不会卖掉喜诗糖果或布法罗新闻报一样。",[14,1128,1129],{},"在当今的企业界，这种态度看起来可能有点老派。频繁交易已成为时尚，现代经理人所谓的”企业组合”意味着旗下所有业务随时都是”重组”的候选对象，只要华尔街的偏好、经营状况或某个新的企业”理念”有所变化。（不过奇怪的是，重组的定义很窄：只限于甩掉让人不爽的业务，而不包括甩掉当初拍板买下这些业务的高管和董事。“恨罪不恨人”这套神学在财富500强中和在救世军中一样流行。）",[14,1131,1132],{},"基金经理人就更是精力过剩了：他们在交易时段的表现让苦行僧看起来都像是被打了镇静剂。事实上，“机构投资者”这个词已经成了一种自相矛盾的说法，跟”巨型小虾”、“女子泥巴摔角手”和”收费低廉的律师”可以归为一类。",[14,1134,1135],{},"尽管这股对频繁交易的狂热横扫了美国的商业界和金融界，我们仍将坚守”至死不渝”的原则。这是唯一一种让查理跟我感到安心的方式，它能产生不错的成果，而且让我们旗下的经理人和被投资公司的管理层可以专注于本业而不受干扰。",[72,1137,1139],{"id":1138},"nhp公司","NHP公司",[14,1141,1142],{},"去年我们支付了2,370万美元购买了NHP公司 (NHP, Inc.)约50%的股权。这是一家从事多户租赁住房开发、联合投资、拥有和管理的公司。如果所有已获批的管理层股票期权全部被授予并行使，我们的权益比例将略微降至45%以上。",[14,1144,1145],{},"NHP公司有一段非同寻常的历史渊源。1967年，约翰逊总统任命了一个由埃德加·凯泽 (Edgar Kaiser)牵头、由商界和民间领袖组成的委员会，研究如何增加面向中低收入租户的多户住宅供应。委员会的部分成员随后组建并推动了两个商业实体来促进这一目标。这两个实体现在都归NHP所有，其中一个按照特殊规则运营：三名董事必须由总统在参议院的建议和同意下任命，而且法律还要求它每年向总统提交年度报告。",[14,1147,1148],{},"出于公共服务精神而非盈利动机，超过260家大型企业共投资4,200万美元设立了这两个实体，随即通过合伙制开始开发政府补贴的租赁房产。典型的合伙企业持有单一房产，主要通过无追索权抵押贷款融资。每个合伙企业的大部分权益资金由一批有限合伙人提供，他们主要被投资附带的大额税收抵扣所吸引。NHP担任普通合伙人，同时也购买了每个合伙企业少量的权益份额。",[14,1150,1151],{},"政府的住房政策当然已经有所调整，NHP也相应拓展了业务范围，涵盖了以市场租金运营的非补贴公寓。此外，NHP的一家子公司在华盛顿特区地区建造独户住宅，年营业收入约5,000万美元。",[14,1153,1154],{},"NHP目前管理着分布在40个州、哥伦比亚特区和波多黎各的大约500处合伙房产，共计约8万套住房。这些房产的建设成本超过25亿美元，且维护良好。NHP直接管理其中约5.5万套住房，并监督其余房产的管理。公司每年的管理费收入约为1,600万美元，而且还在增长。",[14,1156,1157],{},"除了在每个合伙企业成立时购买的权益份额外，NHP还拥有各种剩余权益，这些权益在房产处置并向有限合伙人分配时发挥作用。NHP很多”深度补贴”房产的剩余权益不太可能有多大价值。但某些其他房产的剩余权益可能相当有价值，尤其是如果通胀升温的话。",[14,1159,1160],{},"1986年的《税收改革法案》叫停了面向个人的以税务为导向的房产联合投资。目前NHP主要致力于在高品质、大规模（通常200至500套）的非补贴租赁房产中建立股权地位或获取重大剩余权益。在此类项目中，NHP通常与一个或多个大型机构投资者或贷款方合作。NHP将继续探索开发中低收入公寓住房的途径，但除非政府政策有所改变，否则不太可能取得成功。",[14,1162,1163],{},"除我们之外，NHP的大股东还有惠好公司 (Weyerhauser)（持有约25%的权益）以及由NHP首席执行官罗德·海勒 (Rod Heller)领导的管理层团队。另有约60家大型企业继续持有少量权益，每家不超过2%。",[72,1165,1166],{"id":1166},"税务",[14,1168,1169],{},"1986年的《税收改革法案》以重要而各异的方式影响着我们的各项业务。尽管我们在该法案中发现了许多值得赞赏之处，但对伯克希尔的净财务影响是负面的：在新法律下，我们的企业价值增长速度至少会比旧法律时代有所放缓。对我们股东的净影响则更为负面：假设每股企业价值每增加一美元，伯克希尔股票的市值也相应增加一美元，那么我们的股东将获得72美分的税后收益，而不是旧法律下的80美分。这当然反映了个人资本利得最高税率从20%提高到28%的影响。",[14,1171,1172],{},"以下是影响伯克希尔的主要税务变化：",[72,1174,1175],{"id":1175},"一",[14,1177,1178],{},"企业普通收入的税率将从1986年的46%逐步降至1988年的34%。这一变化对我们显然是利好——对我们三大被投资公司中的两家，大都会\u002FABC和华盛顿邮报公司，同样有显著的正面影响。",[14,1180,1181],{},"我之所以这么说，是因为多年来关于”到底是谁在交公司所得税——企业还是消费者”这个问题，一直有很多含混不清、带着党派色彩的评论。这种争论当然通常围绕加税而非减税展开。那些反对提高企业税率的人经常辩称，企业实际上并不承担任何税负，只是充当一种经济管道，把所有税负转嫁给消费者。按照这些人的说法，任何企业加税都只会导致产品提价，从而抵消了税负增加。既然持这种立场，“管道论”的支持者就必须同样得出结论：企业减税不会增加利润，而是会通过降价传导给消费者。",[14,1183,1184],{},"另一派则认为，企业不仅支付税负，而且完全吸收了税负。按照这种观点，消费者不会受到企业税率变化的影响。",[14,1186,1187],{},"事实到底如何？当企业税率下调时，是伯克希尔、华盛顿邮报、大都会公司等自己吞下了减税的好处，还是它们会以降价的方式将好处传递给消费者？这对投资者、经理人和政策制定者来说，都是一个重要的问题。",[14,1189,1190],{},"我们得出的结论是：在某些情况下，减税的好处完全或几乎完全归企业及其股东所有；而在另一些情况下，好处完全或几乎完全传递给了消费者。决定结果的关键因素是企业特许经营权的强弱，以及该特许经营权的盈利能力是否受到政府管制。",[14,1192,1193],{},"举个例子，当特许经营权很强但税后利润受到相对精确的管制时——如电力公司的情况——企业税率的变化主要反映在价格上，而非利润上。税收下降，电价通常很快就会下调。税收上升，电价也会上涨，不过往往没那么迅速。",[14,1195,1196],{},"在价格竞争激烈的行业中也会出现类似的结果。这类行业的企业通常拥有非常薄弱的特许经营权。在这些行业中，自由市场以一种滞后且不规则、但总体有效的方式”管制”着税后利润。市场对价格竞争型行业所起的作用，实际上与公用事业管理委员会对电力公司所起的作用相当。因此，在这些行业中，税率变化最终对价格的影响也大于对利润的影响。",[14,1198,1199],{},"然而，对于那些拥有强大特许经营权且不受政府管制的企业来说，情况就完全不同了：企业及其股东才是减税的主要受益者。这些公司从减税中获益的方式，就如同电力公司在没有监管机构强制其降价时获益一样。",[14,1201,1202],{},"我们旗下的许多业务，无论是全资拥有的还是部分持股的，都拥有这样的特许经营权。因此，减税的好处最终大多落入我们的口袋，而非消费者的口袋。虽然这样说有些不合时宜，但却无法否认。如果你一时无法接受这个事实，不妨想想你所在地区最优秀的脑外科医生或律师。你真的认为这些专家（他们所在专业领域的当地”特许经营权持有者”）会因为个人最高税率从50%降到28%，就降低收费标准吗？",[14,1204,1205],{},"不过，对于我们关于低税率利好旗下若干业务和被投资公司的结论，各位不要高兴得太早，因为我们还有另一个判断：1988年计划实施的个人和企业税率，在我们看来完全不切实际。这些税率极有可能给华盛顿制造一个与物价稳定不可调和的财政问题。因此我们相信，最终——比如说在五年之内——更高的税率或更高的通胀率几乎肯定会出现。而且如果两者同时出现，我们也不会感到意外。",[72,1207,1208],{"id":1208},"二",[14,1210,1211],{},"自1987年起，企业资本利得税率从28%提高到34%。这一变化将对伯克希尔产生重大不利影响，因为我们预计未来企业价值的增长将在很大程度上来自资本利得，过去如此，将来也是如此。例如，我们三大投资——大都会\u002FABC、盖可保险和华盛顿邮报——年底的市值超过17亿美元，接近伯克希尔总净资产的75%，但它们每年为我们贡献的收入仅约900万美元。相反，这三家公司都将很高比例的收益留存下来，我们预期这些留存收益最终将以资本利得的形式回报我们。",[14,1213,1214],{},"新法律提高了未来实现的所有资本利得的税率，包括法律颁布之前就已经存在的未实现收益。到年底，我们的股票投资中有12亿美元的未实现收益。新法律对我们资产负债表的影响将会延迟显现，因为GAAP规则规定，适用于未实现收益的递延税负应按去年28%的税率计算，而非当前的34%税率。这条规则预计很快将会修改。一旦修改，大约7,300万美元将从我们的GAAP净资产中消失，并被加入递延税款账户。",[72,1216,1217],{"id":1217},"三",[14,1219,1220],{},"新法律将大幅加重我们保险公司获得的股利和利息收入的税负。首先，所有企业从其他国内公司收到的股利中，将有20%需要纳税，高于旧法律下的15%。其次，一项仅适用于财产意外险公司的变化涉及剩余的80%：如果派发股利的股票是在1986年8月7日之后购买的，这80%中还有15%需要纳税。第三项变化同样仅适用于财产意外险公司，涉及免税债券：保险公司在1986年8月7日之后购买的免税债券，其利息只有85%可以免税。",[14,1222,1223],{},"后两项变化非常重要。它们意味着我们未来年份投资所获得的收益，将比旧法律下显著减少。我最好的估计是，仅这些变化最终将使我们保险业务的盈利能力比原先预期降低至少10%。",[72,1225,1226],{"id":1226},"四",[14,1228,1229],{},"新税法还大幅改变了财产意外险公司纳税的时间安排。一条新规定要求我们在报税时对损失准备金进行折现，这一变化将减少扣除额并增加应税收入。另一条规则将在六年内分阶段实施，要求我们将未赚取保费准备金的20%计入应税收入。",[14,1231,1232],{},"这两条规则都不会改变我们在报表中应计税额的年度数字，但都将大幅加快我们缴税的进度。也就是说，以前递延的税款现在要提前缴纳，这将显著降低我们业务的盈利能力。打个比方就能说明这种代价有多大：如果你在21岁成年时就被要求立即为此生将要获得的所有收入缴税，那么你的终身财富和遗产将只是你在死亡时才缴税情况下的很小一部分。",[14,1234,1235],{},"细心的读者可能会发现我们的说法有一处不一致的地方。前面在讨论价格竞争型行业的公司时，我们认为加税或减税对这些公司影响相对较小，而是大部分被传导给了消费者。但现在我们却说加税将影响伯克希尔财产意外险公司的利润，尽管它们所处的行业竞争极为激烈。",[14,1237,1238],{},"保险业之所以很可能成为我们一般规律的一个例外，原因在于并非所有主要保险公司都将面临相同的税收计算公式。重大差异的存在有几个原因：新的替代性最低税将对某些公司产生实质影响而对另一些则不会；某些大型保险公司拥有巨额亏损结转，在至少未来几年内将很大程度上屏蔽其收入免受重大税负；一些大型保险公司的业绩将被纳入拥有非保险业务的母公司合并报税。这些不同的条件将导致财产意外险行业内各公司的边际税率差异悬殊。然而在大多数其他价格竞争型行业——比如铝、汽车和百货商店——情况并非如此，这些行业的主要参与者通常面临相似的税收计算方式。",[14,1240,1241],{},"财产意外险公司之间缺乏统一的税收计算基础，意味着落在行业头上的增量税负很可能不会像典型的价格竞争型行业那样大部分传导给客户。换言之，保险公司自身将承担大部分新增的税负。",[72,1243,1244],{"id":1244},"五",[14,1246,1247],{},"部分抵消这些负担的是一项”重新开始”调整——发生在1987年1月1日，届时我们1986年12月31日的损失准备金数字将在税务上按照新要求的折现基础进行转换。（不过，在给各位的报告中，准备金仍将维持与过去完全相同的基础——除结构清偿等特殊情况外不进行折现。）“重新开始”的净效应是给了我们一个双重抵扣：我们将在1987年及以后年度，就部分已发生但未赔付的保险损失获得税收减免，而这些损失实际上在1986年及更早年份已经被完全作为成本扣除过了。",[14,1249,1250],{},"这一变化产生的净资产增加尚未反映在我们的财务报表中。按照现行的GAAP规则（可能会修改），这项收益将在未来几年通过减少税款的方式逐步流入损益表，并相应增加净资产。我们预计”重新开始”调整带来的总收益在3,000万至4,000万美元之间。不过必须注意的是，这是一次性的收益，而其他与保险相关的税务变化的负面影响不仅是持续性的，而且在重要方面随着时间推移还会愈发严重。",[72,1252,1253],{"id":1253},"六",[14,1255,1256],{},"新税法废除了”公用事业法则” (General Utilities Doctrine)。这意味着从1987年起，企业清算将面临双重征税——企业层面一次，股东层面一次。过去，企业层面的税收是可以避免的。以伯克希尔为例——虽然我们肯定不会清算——在新法律下，假设出售价格相同，股东从出售我们资产中获得的收益将比旧法律时代少得多。虽然这对我们只是理论上的影响，但法律的变化将切实影响许多公司。因此，它也影响了我们对潜在投资标的的评估。以石油和天然气生产企业、某些媒体公司、房地产公司等可能希望出售的企业为例。仅仅因为公用事业法则被废除——尽管公司的经营状况根本没有恶化——其股东能够实现的价值就可能大幅缩水。我的印象是，投资者和经理人都尚未充分认识到这一法律变化的重要性。",[14,1258,1259],{},"本报告的这一部分比我希望的更长、更复杂。但法律的变化既多且重要，对财产意外险公司尤其如此。正如我已经指出的，新法律将损害伯克希尔的业绩，但负面影响无法精确量化。",[72,1261,1262],{"id":1262},"其他事项",[14,1264,1265],{},"去年我们买了一架公司飞机。你们听说过的关于公务飞机的一切都是真的：它们非常昂贵，对于我们这种很少需要飞往偏远地方的情况来说属于奢侈品。飞机不仅使用成本高，光停在那里看着就要花很多钱。一架全新1,500万美元的飞机，税前的资金成本加折旧每年大概要300万美元。我们那架用85万美元买来的二手飞机，这类费用每年也接近20万美元。",[14,1267,1268],{},"深知这些数字，不幸的是你们的董事长过去曾就公务飞机发表了不少相当过激的言论。因此，在我们购买之前，我不得不进入”伽利略模式”——迅速经历了必要的”反启示”，然后出行确实比过去方便多了——当然也贵多了。伯克希尔能不能从这架飞机上收回票价还是个未知数，但我一定会努力取得某项商业成就，然后（不管多么牵强地）将其归功于这架飞机。恐怕本杰明·富兰克林 (Ben Franklin)早就看穿了我。他曾说：“身为理性动物实在太方便了，因为它使人能为自己想做的任何事情找到或编造一个理由。”",[14,1270,1271],{},"大约97%的符合条件的股份参加了伯克希尔1986年度股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划总共捐出了400万美元，惠及1,934个慈善机构。",[14,1273,1274],{},"我们敦促新股东阅读第58-59页关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。如果你们希望参加未来的计划，我们强烈建议你们立即确保股份登记在实际所有者名下，而非以”街名”或代持人名义登记。1987年9月30日未如此登记的股份将无法参加1987年度的计划。",[637,1276],{},[14,1278,1279],{},"去年约有450人参加了我们的股东大会，比前年的约250人有所增加（十年前大约只有十几个人）。我希望各位能在5月19日来到奥马哈参加今年的大会。查理跟我很乐意回答与公司相关的问题，我可以向你们保证我们的股东会提出很多好问题。回答所有问题可能需要很长时间——去年大约有65个问题——所以当你自己的问题得到解答后，可以随时离开。",[14,1281,1282],{},"去年大会结束后，一位来自新泽西的股东和一位来自纽约的股东去了内布拉斯加家具店，各自花5,000美元从B夫人那里买了一条东方地毯。（准确地说，他们以大约5,000美元的价格买到了在别处可能要花10,000美元的地毯。）B夫人很高兴——但并不满足——今年大会结束后她会在店里等着各位。如果我们的股东不能超越去年的记录，我可就有麻烦了。所以帮我（也帮你自己）一个忙，去看看她吧。",[14,1284,1285],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1287,1288],{},"董事长",[14,1290,1291],{},"1987年2月27日",[72,1293,1295],{"id":1294},"附录购买法会计调整与现金流谬误","附录：购买法会计调整与”现金流”谬误",[14,1297,1298],{},"首先来个小测验：以下是两家公司1986年的简要损益表。哪家公司更有价值？",[91,1300,1301,1313],{},[94,1302,1303],{},[97,1304,1305,1307,1310],{},[100,1306,120],{},[100,1308,1309],{},"公司O",[100,1311,1312],{},"公司N",[113,1314,1315,1325,1334,1344,1354,1365,1379,1396,1406,1415,1429,1446,1456,1473,1482,1492,1502,1516],{},[97,1316,1317,1320,1323],{},[118,1318,1319],{},"营业收入",[118,1321,1322],{},"$ 677,240",[118,1324,1322],{},[97,1326,1327,1330,1332],{},[118,1328,1329],{},"销售成本:",[118,1331],{},[118,1333],{},[97,1335,1336,1339,1342],{},[118,1337,1338],{},"历史成本（不含折旧）",[118,1340,1341],{},"$ 341,170",[118,1343,1341],{},[97,1345,1346,1349,1351],{},[118,1347,1348],{},"特殊非现金存货成本",[118,1350],{},[118,1352,1353],{},"4,979 (1)",[97,1355,1356,1359,1362],{},[118,1357,1358],{},"厂房和设备折旧",[118,1360,1361],{},"8,301",[118,1363,1364],{},"13,355 (2)",[97,1366,1367,1369,1374],{},[118,1368],{},[118,1370,1371],{},[17,1372,1373],{},"349,471",[118,1375,1376],{},[17,1377,1378],{},"359,504",[97,1380,1381,1386,1391],{},[118,1382,1383],{},[17,1384,1385],{},"毛利润",[118,1387,1388],{},[17,1389,1390],{},"$ 327,769",[118,1392,1393],{},[17,1394,1395],{},"$ 317,736",[97,1397,1398,1401,1404],{},[118,1399,1400],{},"销售及管理费用",[118,1402,1403],{},"$ 260,286",[118,1405,1403],{},[97,1407,1408,1410,1412],{},[118,1409,324],{},[118,1411],{},[118,1413,1414],{},"595 (3)",[97,1416,1417,1419,1424],{},[118,1418],{},[118,1420,1421],{},[17,1422,1423],{},"260,286",[118,1425,1426],{},[17,1427,1428],{},"260,881",[97,1430,1431,1436,1441],{},[118,1432,1433],{},[17,1434,1435],{},"营业利润",[118,1437,1438],{},[17,1439,1440],{},"$ 67,483",[118,1442,1443],{},[17,1444,1445],{},"$ 56,855",[97,1447,1448,1451,1454],{},[118,1449,1450],{},"其他净收入",[118,1452,1453],{},"4,135",[118,1455,1453],{},[97,1457,1458,1463,1468],{},[118,1459,1460],{},[17,1461,1462],{},"税前利润",[118,1464,1465],{},[17,1466,1467],{},"$ 71,618",[118,1469,1470],{},[17,1471,1472],{},"$ 60,990",[97,1474,1475,1478,1480],{},[118,1476,1477],{},"应付所得税:",[118,1479],{},[118,1481],{},[97,1483,1484,1487,1490],{},[118,1485,1486],{},"历史递延和当期税款",[118,1488,1489],{},"$ 31,387",[118,1491,1489],{},[97,1493,1494,1497,1499],{},[118,1495,1496],{},"非现金跨期分配调整",[118,1498],{},[118,1500,1501],{},"998 (4)",[97,1503,1504,1506,1511],{},[118,1505],{},[118,1507,1508],{},[17,1509,1510],{},"31,387",[118,1512,1513],{},[17,1514,1515],{},"32,385",[97,1517,1518,1523,1528],{},[118,1519,1520],{},[17,1521,1522],{},"净利润",[118,1524,1525],{},[17,1526,1527],{},"$ 40,231",[118,1529,1530],{},[17,1531,1532],{},"$ 28,605",[14,1534,1535],{},[774,1536,1537],{},"（数字(1)至(4)标示的项目将在本节后面讨论。）",[14,1539,1540],{},"你们可能已经猜到了，公司O和公司N其实是同一家企业——斯科特费泽 (Scott Fetzer)。“O”列（代表”旧”）展示的是如果我们没有收购该公司，其1986年GAAP收益本应是多少；“N”列（代表”新”）展示的是伯克希尔实际报告的斯科特费泽GAAP收益。",[14,1542,1543],{},"需要强调的是，两列描述的是完全相同的经济现实——同样的销售额、工资、税款等。两家”公司”为所有者创造的现金流也完全相同。不同的只是会计处理方式。",[14,1545,1546],{},"那么，各位哲学家们，哪一列才代表真相？经理人和投资者应该关注哪组数字？",[14,1548,1549],{},"在解答这些问题之前，我们先来看看O和N之间的差异是怎么产生的。我们会在某些方面简化讨论，但这种简化不会导致分析或结论上的偏差。",[14,1551,1552],{},"O与N之间的差异产生于我们为收购斯科特费泽支付的金额与其账面净资产不同。根据GAAP，这种差异——无论是溢价还是折价——必须通过”购买法会计调整”来处理。就斯科特费泽而言，我们以3.15亿美元的价格买下了账面价值为1.724亿美元的净资产。因此我们支付了1.426亿美元的溢价。",[14,1554,1555],{},"处理任何收购溢价的第一步是将流动资产的账面价值调整为当前价值。在实际操作中，这一要求通常不影响应收账款（因其通常以当前价值列示），但往往会影响存货。由于2,290万美元的后进先出法 (LIFO)准备金和其他会计上的复杂因素，斯科特费泽的存货账面价值比当前价值低了3,730万美元。于是，在第一步会计操作中，我们动用了1.426亿美元溢价中的3,730万美元来提高存货的账面价值。",[14,1557,1558],{},"假设调整完流动资产后仍有剩余溢价，下一步就是将固定资产调整为当前价值。在我们的案例中，这一调整还涉及一些与递延税款相关的会计杂技。既然这是一个简化版的讨论，我就跳过细节，直接给出结论：固定资产增加了6,800万美元，递延税负减少了1,300万美元。完成这8,100万美元的调整后，我们还剩下2,430万美元的溢价需要分配。",[14,1560,1561],{},"如果情况需要的话，接下来还有两个步骤：将商誉以外的无形资产调整为当前公允价值，以及将负债重述为当前公允价值（这一要求通常只影响长期债务和未提拨的养老金负债）。不过在斯科特费泽的案例中，这两步都不需要。",[14,1563,1564],{},"在将所有资产和负债都按公允市场价值记录之后，我们需要做的最后一项会计调整，是将剩余溢价归入商誉（专业术语叫做”收购成本超过所购净资产公允价值的部分”）。这笔剩余金额为2,430万美元。因此，收购前斯科特费泽O列所示的资产负债表，经过购买交易后就变成了N列所示的资产负债表。就实质而言，两张资产负债表描述的是完全相同的资产和负债——但如各位所见，某些数字差异巨大。",[91,1566,1567,1577],{},[94,1568,1569],{},[97,1570,1571,1573,1575],{},[100,1572,120],{},[100,1574,1309],{},[100,1576,1312],{},[113,1578,1579,1590,1600,1610,1621,1630,1641,1652,1662,1673,1687,1698,1708,1718,1728,1738,1748,1759,1769,1780,1791],{},[97,1580,1581,1586,1588],{},[118,1582,1583],{},[17,1584,1585],{},"资产",[118,1587],{},[118,1589],{},[97,1591,1592,1595,1598],{},[118,1593,1594],{},"现金及现金等价物",[118,1596,1597],{},"$ 3,593",[118,1599,1597],{},[97,1601,1602,1605,1608],{},[118,1603,1604],{},"应收账款净额",[118,1606,1607],{},"90,919",[118,1609,1607],{},[97,1611,1612,1615,1618],{},[118,1613,1614],{},"存货",[118,1616,1617],{},"77,489",[118,1619,1620],{},"114,764",[97,1622,1623,1625,1628],{},[118,1624,388],{},[118,1626,1627],{},"5,954",[118,1629,1627],{},[97,1631,1632,1635,1638],{},[118,1633,1634],{},"流动资产合计",[118,1636,1637],{},"177,955",[118,1639,1640],{},"215,230",[97,1642,1643,1646,1649],{},[118,1644,1645],{},"固定资产净额",[118,1647,1648],{},"80,967",[118,1650,1651],{},"148,960",[97,1653,1654,1657,1660],{},[118,1655,1656],{},"对未合并子公司及合资企业的投资和垫款",[118,1658,1659],{},"93,589",[118,1661,1659],{},[97,1663,1664,1667,1670],{},[118,1665,1666],{},"其他资产（含商誉）",[118,1668,1669],{},"9,836",[118,1671,1672],{},"34,210",[97,1674,1675,1677,1682],{},[118,1676],{},[118,1678,1679],{},[17,1680,1681],{},"$ 362,347",[118,1683,1684],{},[17,1685,1686],{},"$ 491,989",[97,1688,1689,1694,1696],{},[118,1690,1691],{},[17,1692,1693],{},"负债及股东权益",[118,1695],{},[118,1697],{},[97,1699,1700,1703,1706],{},[118,1701,1702],{},"应付票据及长期债务当期部分",[118,1704,1705],{},"$ 4,650",[118,1707,1705],{},[97,1709,1710,1713,1716],{},[118,1711,1712],{},"应付账款",[118,1714,1715],{},"39,003",[118,1717,1715],{},[97,1719,1720,1723,1726],{},[118,1721,1722],{},"应计负债",[118,1724,1725],{},"84,939",[118,1727,1725],{},[97,1729,1730,1733,1736],{},[118,1731,1732],{},"流动负债合计",[118,1734,1735],{},"128,592",[118,1737,1735],{},[97,1739,1740,1743,1746],{},[118,1741,1742],{},"长期债务及资本化租赁",[118,1744,1745],{},"34,669",[118,1747,1745],{},[97,1749,1750,1753,1756],{},[118,1751,1752],{},"递延所得税",[118,1754,1755],{},"17,052",[118,1757,1758],{},"4,075",[97,1760,1761,1764,1767],{},[118,1762,1763],{},"其他递延项目",[118,1765,1766],{},"9,657",[118,1768,1766],{},[97,1770,1771,1774,1777],{},[118,1772,1773],{},"负债合计",[118,1775,1776],{},"189,970",[118,1778,1779],{},"176,993",[97,1781,1782,1785,1788],{},[118,1783,1784],{},"股东权益",[118,1786,1787],{},"172,377",[118,1789,1790],{},"314,996",[97,1792,1793,1795,1799],{},[118,1794],{},[118,1796,1797],{},[17,1798,1681],{},[118,1800,1801],{},[17,1802,1686],{},[14,1804,1805],{},"N列中较高的资产负债表数字，产生了前面损益表N列中较低的收益数字。这是因为资产被调增了，而部分被调增的资产必须进行折旧或摊销。资产账面价值越高，每年计入收益的折旧或摊销费用就越高。因资产负债表调增而流入损益表的费用，在前面的损益表中已经编号标注：",[1807,1808,1809,1813,1816,1819],"ol",{},[1810,1811,1812],"li",{},"497.9万美元的非现金存货成本，主要源于斯科特费泽在1986年期间减少存货；此类费用在未来几年可能很小或不复存在。",[1810,1814,1815],{},"505.4万美元的额外折旧，源于固定资产的调增；金额大致相当的费用还将持续大约12年。",[1810,1817,1818],{},"59.5万美元的商誉摊销；由于我们的收购是在1月6日完成的，1986年的数字仅涵盖全年的98%，因此未来每年的金额会略高，这项费用还将持续39年。",[1810,1820,1821],{},"99.8万美元的递延税款杂技，超出了我简要解释（也许连详细解释都做不到）的能力范围；金额大致相当的费用还将持续大约12年。",[14,1823,1824],{},"有一点很重要：这些新增的会计成本合计1,160万美元，在所得税申报中是不能抵扣的。“新”斯科特费泽缴纳的税款与”旧”斯科特费泽完全相同，尽管两个实体的GAAP收益差异巨大。就经营收益而言，未来也将如此。不过，在不太可能发生的情况下——斯科特费泽出售旗下某项业务——“新”公司和”旧”公司的税务后果可能大不相同。",[14,1826,1827],{},"到1986年底，“新”“旧”斯科特费泽之间的净资产差额，已因新实体多计的1,160万美元费用而从1.426亿美元缩小到1.31亿美元。随着年份的推移，类似的收益扣除将使大部分溢价逐渐消失，两张资产负债表将趋于一致。不过，在新资产负债表上确立的较高土地价值和大部分较高存货价值将会保留，除非土地被处置或存货水平进一步降低。",[637,1829],{},[14,1831,1832],{},"这一切对所有者意味着什么？伯克希尔的股东买到的是一家在1986年盈利4,020万美元的企业，还是一家盈利2,860万美元的企业？那1,160万美元的新增费用对我们来说是真正的经济成本吗？投资者应该为O公司的股票比N公司付更多钱吗？而且，如果一家企业的价值等于某个固定的利润倍数，那么在我们买下它的前一天，斯科特费泽是否比第二天值钱得多？",[14,1834,1835],{},"如果我们把这些问题想透，就能对所谓的”所有者收益”有一些深入的理解。所有者收益等于：(a)报告收益，加上(b)折旧、折耗、摊销及其他某些非现金费用（如N公司的第(1)项和第(4)项），减去(c)企业为充分维持其长期竞争地位和产销规模，而在厂房、设备等方面每年平均需要进行的资本化支出。（如果企业需要额外的营运资金来维持其竞争地位和产销规模，这部分增量也应计入(c)。不过，采用后进先出法存货计价的企业，在产销规模不变的情况下通常不需要额外的营运资金。）",[14,1837,1838],{},"我们的所有者收益公式不会得出GAAP那种看似精确实则具有欺骗性的数字，因为(c)必须依靠估计——有时还非常难以估计。尽管如此，我们认为在估值时，无论是投资者买股票还是经理人收购整家企业，应该关注的是所有者收益而非GAAP数字。我们赞同凯恩斯 (Keynes)的观点：“我宁要模糊的正确，也不要精确的错误。”",[14,1840,1841],{},"用我们的方法计算，O公司和N公司的”所有者收益”完全相同，这意味着估值也完全相同——常识会告诉你本该如此。之所以如此，是因为O列和N列中(a)与(b)之和相同，而(c)在两种情况下当然也相同。",[14,1843,1844],{},"那么，作为所有者和管理者，查理和我认为斯科特费泽的所有者收益正确数字是多少呢？在目前情况下，我们认为(c)非常接近”旧”公司(b)的830万美元，远低于”新”公司(b)的1,990万美元。因此，我们认为O列的报告收益远比N列更能反映真实的所有者收益。换句话说，我们认为斯科特费泽的所有者收益远高于我们按GAAP报告的数字。",[14,1846,1847],{},"这显然是令人高兴的状况。但此类计算通常不会带来如此好的消息。大多数经理人可能会承认，长远来看，他们需要花费多于(b)的资金，才能在产销规模和竞争地位上守住阵地。当这种情况存在时——也就是(c)超过(b)时——GAAP收益就高估了所有者收益。这种高估往往相当严重。近年来石油行业就是一个显著的例子。如果大多数大型石油公司每年只花费(b)那么多资金，它们实际上就注定了会萎缩。",[14,1849,1850],{},"所有这些都揭示了华尔街报告中经常引用的”现金流”概念的荒谬性。这些数字通常包含了(a)加(b)——却不减去(c)。大多数投资银行家的推介材料也充斥着这种欺骗性的表述。它们暗示所推介的企业就是商业世界的金字塔——永远最先进，永远不需要更换、改善或翻新。事实上，如果全美企业同时通过我们的顶级投行挂牌出售——而且如果那些推介材料所述属实的话——政府对全国厂房和设备支出的预测恐怕得砍掉90%。",[14,1852,1853],{},"诚然，“现金流”在描述某些特定类型的企业时可能有一定的简便用途——比如某些房地产企业或其他前期投入巨大但后续支出极少的行业。一家仅拥有一座桥梁或一处极长寿命天然气田的公司就是这样的例子。但”现金流”在制造业、零售业、采掘业和公用事业等行业中毫无意义，因为对这些行业来说，(c)始终是一个重大数字。当然，这类企业在某一年可以推迟资本支出。但如果放在五年或十年的时间跨度来看，它们必须进行投资——否则企业必将衰败。",[14,1855,1856],{},"那么，为什么”现金流”概念如今这么流行？在回答这个问题时，我们坦承自己的愤世嫉俗：我们相信这些数字经常被企业和证券的推销者用来为不合理的东西正名（从而把不该卖出去的东西卖出去）。当(a)——也就是GAAP收益——本身看起来不足以偿还垃圾债券的利息或支撑一个愚蠢的股价时，推销者们转而聚焦于(a)+(b)就变得何其方便。但你不能只加(b)而不减(c)：虽然牙医们说得没错——如果你忽视你的牙齿，牙齿确实会离你而去——但(c)可不会。任何认为可以通过将(a)和(b)相加、同时忽略(c)来衡量企业偿债能力或股权价值的公司或投资者，麻烦一定会找上门来。",[637,1858],{},[14,1860,1861],{},"总结一下：就斯科特费泽和我们其他业务而言，我们认为以历史成本为基础的(b)——也就是剔除无形资产摊销和其他购买法会计调整后的数字——与(c)非常接近。（当然两者并不完全相同。例如在喜诗糖果，我们每年的资本化支出超过折旧50万到100万美元，只是为了维持竞争力。）正是这一判断促使我们在前面的表格中将摊销项目和其他购买法调整项目单独列示，也是我们认为那张表中各业务报告的收益数字远比GAAP数字更接近真实所有者收益的原因。",[14,1863,1864],{},"对GAAP数字提出质疑，在某些人看来可能有些大不敬。毕竟，如果会计师不能向我们传达企业经营的”真相”，我们还付钱给他们干什么？但会计师的工作是记录，不是评估。评估的工作落在投资者和经理人身上。",[14,1866,1867],{},"当然，会计数字是商业的语言，因此对任何评估企业价值和跟踪企业进展的人都有莫大的帮助。没有这些数字，查理和我就会迷失方向：它们始终是我们评估自身业务和他人业务的起点。不过，经理人和所有者需要记住，会计只是商业思维的辅助工具，绝不能替代商业思维本身。",{"title":1869,"searchDepth":1870,"depth":1870,"links":1871},"",2,[1872,1874,1875,1876,1877,1878,1879,1880,1881,1882,1883,1884,1885,1886,1887,1888,1889,1890,1891],{"id":74,"depth":1873,"text":74},3,{"id":195,"depth":1873,"text":195},{"id":243,"depth":1873,"text":243},{"id":275,"depth":1873,"text":275},{"id":309,"depth":1873,"text":309},{"id":228,"depth":1873,"text":228},{"id":581,"depth":1873,"text":581},{"id":644,"depth":1873,"text":644},{"id":939,"depth":1873,"text":939},{"id":1138,"depth":1873,"text":1139},{"id":1166,"depth":1873,"text":1166},{"id":1175,"depth":1873,"text":1175},{"id":1208,"depth":1873,"text":1208},{"id":1217,"depth":1873,"text":1217},{"id":1226,"depth":1873,"text":1226},{"id":1244,"depth":1873,"text":1244},{"id":1253,"depth":1873,"text":1253},{"id":1262,"depth":1873,"text":1262},{"id":1294,"depth":1873,"text":1295},"致股东信",null,"1986年巴菲特致股东信，分享经营收益大幅增长、投资收益创纪录及保险业务繁荣","md",{},true,57,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1894},"1986 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有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":1913,"slug":1914,"category":1915,"order":1911},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1917,"slug":1918,"category":1919,"order":1911},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1921,"slug":1922,"category":1910,"order":1870},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1924,"slug":1925,"category":1915,"order":1870},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1927,"slug":1928,"category":1919,"order":1870},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1930,"slug":1931,"category":1910,"order":1873},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1933,"slug":1934,"category":1915,"order":1873},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1936,"slug":1937,"category":1919,"order":1873},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1939,"slug":1940,"category":1910,"order":1941},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1943,"slug":1944,"category":1915,"order":1941},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1946,"slug":1947,"category":1919,"order":1941},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1949,"slug":1950,"category":1910,"order":1951},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1953,"slug":1954,"category":1915,"order":1951},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1956,"slug":1957,"category":1919,"order":1951},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1959,"slug":1960,"category":1910,"order":1961},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1963,"slug":1964,"category":1915,"order":1961},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1966,"slug":1967,"category":1919,"order":1961},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1969,"slug":1970,"category":1910,"order":1971},"1961年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2306,"slug":2307,"category":1915,"order":2304},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2309,"slug":2310,"category":1892,"order":2311},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2313,"slug":2314,"category":1915,"order":2311},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2316,"slug":2317,"category":1892,"order":2318},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2320,"slug":2321,"category":1915,"order":2318},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2323,"slug":2324,"category":1892,"order":2325},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2327,"slug":2328,"category":1915,"order":2325},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2330,"slug":2331,"category":1892,"order":2332},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2334,"slug":2335,"category":1915,"order":2332},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2337,"slug":2338,"category":1892,"order":2339},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2341,"slug":2342,"category":1915,"order":2339},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2344,"slug":2345,"category":1892,"order":2346},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2348,"slug":2349,"category":1915,"order":2346},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2351,"slug":2352,"category":1892,"order":2353},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2355,"slug":2356,"category":1915,"order":2353},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2358,"slug":2359,"category":1892,"order":2360},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2362,"slug":2363,"category":1915,"order":2360},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2365,"slug":2366,"category":1892,"order":2367},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2369,"slug":2370,"category":1915,"order":2367},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2372,"slug":2373,"category":1892,"order":2374},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2376,"slug":2377,"category":1915,"order":2374},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2379,"slug":2380,"category":1892,"order":2381},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2383,"slug":2384,"category":1915,"order":2381},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2386,"slug":2387,"category":1892,"order":2388},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2390,"slug":2391,"category":1915,"order":2388},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2393,"slug":2394,"category":1892,"order":2395},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2397,"slug":2398,"category":1915,"order":2395},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":5,"slug":1902,"category":1892,"order":1898},{"title":2401,"slug":2402,"category":1915,"order":1898},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2404,"slug":2405,"category":1892,"order":2406},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2408,"slug":2409,"category":1915,"order":2406},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2411,"slug":2412,"category":1892,"order":2413},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2415,"slug":2416,"category":1915,"order":2413},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2418,"slug":2419,"category":1892,"order":2420},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2422,"slug":2423,"category":1915,"order":2420},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2425,"slug":2426,"category":1892,"order":2427},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2429,"slug":2430,"category":1915,"order":2427},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2432,"slug":2433,"category":1892,"order":2434},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2436,"slug":2437,"category":1915,"order":2434},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2439,"slug":2440,"category":1892,"order":2441},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2443,"slug":2444,"category":1915,"order":2441},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2446,"slug":2447,"category":1892,"order":2448},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2450,"slug":2451,"category":1915,"order":2448},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2453,"slug":2454,"category":1892,"order":2455},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2457,"slug":2458,"category":1915,"order":2455},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2460,"slug":2461,"category":1892,"order":2462},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2464,"slug":2465,"category":1915,"order":2462},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2467,"slug":2468,"category":1892,"order":2469},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2471,"slug":2472,"category":1915,"order":2469},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2474,"slug":2475,"category":1892,"order":2476},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2478,"slug":2479,"category":1915,"order":2476},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2481,"slug":2482,"category":1892,"order":2483},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2485,"slug":2486,"category":1915,"order":2483},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2488,"slug":2489,"category":1892,"order":2490},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2492,"slug":2493,"category":1915,"order":2490},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2495,"slug":2496,"category":1892,"order":2497},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2499,"slug":2500,"category":1915,"order":2497},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2502,"slug":2503,"category":1892,"order":2504},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":1915,"order":2504},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2509,"slug":2510,"category":1892,"order":2511},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2513,"slug":2514,"category":1915,"order":2511},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2516,"slug":2517,"category":1892,"order":2518},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2520,"slug":2521,"category":1915,"order":2518},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2523,"slug":2524,"category":1892,"order":2525},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2527,"slug":2528,"category":1915,"order":2525},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2530,"slug":2531,"category":1892,"order":2532},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2534,"slug":2535,"category":1915,"order":2532},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2537,"slug":2538,"category":1892,"order":2539},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2541,"slug":2542,"category":1915,"order":2539},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2544,"slug":2545,"category":1892,"order":2546},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2548,"slug":2549,"category":1915,"order":2546},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2551,"slug":2552,"category":1892,"order":2553},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2555,"slug":2556,"category":1915,"order":2553},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2558,"slug":2559,"category":1892,"order":2560},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2562,"slug":2563,"category":1915,"order":2560},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2565,"slug":2566,"category":1892,"order":2567},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2569,"slug":2570,"category":1915,"order":2567},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2572,"slug":2573,"category":1892,"order":2574},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":1915,"order":2574},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2579,"slug":2580,"category":1892,"order":2581},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2583,"slug":2584,"category":1915,"order":2581},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2586,"slug":2587,"category":1892,"order":2588},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2590,"slug":2591,"category":1915,"order":2588},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2593,"slug":2594,"category":1892,"order":2595},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2597,"slug":2598,"category":1915,"order":2595},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":1892,"order":2602},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2604,"slug":2605,"category":1915,"order":2602},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2607,"slug":2608,"category":1892,"order":2609},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2611,"slug":2612,"category":1915,"order":2609},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2614,"slug":2615,"category":1892,"order":2616},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2618,"slug":2619,"category":1915,"order":2616},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2621,"slug":2622,"category":1892,"order":2623},"2016 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