[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2857},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1321,"library-sidebar-dao":2323,"library-sidebar-models":2625},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1307,"date":1308,"description":1309,"extension":1310,"meta":1311,"navigation":1312,"order":1313,"path":1314,"seo":1315,"seoDescription":1309,"seoTitle":1316,"slug":1317,"stem":1318,"__hash__":1319,"_collection":1320},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1988 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1283},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,60,63,71,74,77,80,83,86,89,92,95,98,101,104,107,110,113,116,119,122,125,128,131,526,529,532,535,538,540,543,546,549,552,555,557,560,563,566,568,571,574,577,579,582,585,588,591,594,597,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,624,627,630,633,636,639,795,800,803,806,809,812,815,818,821,824,827,830,833,836,839,842,845,848,851,941,944,947,950,953,956,959,962,965,968,972,975,978,981,984,987,990,993,996,999,1002,1005,1008,1011,1014,1017,1020,1023,1026,1029,1032,1035,1038,1041,1044,1047,1050,1053,1056,1059,1062,1065,1068,1071,1074,1077,1080,1083,1086,1089,1092,1095,1098,1101,1104,1107,1110,1113,1116,1127,1130,1133,1136,1139,1142,1145,1148,1151,1154,1157,1160,1163,1166,1169,1172,1175,1179,1182,1189,1192,1195,1198,1201,1203,1206,1209,1231,1234,1237,1240,1243,1246,1249,1252,1254,1257,1260,1262,1265,1268,1271,1274,1277,1280],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1988-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,21,22],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,24,25],{},"1988年，伯克希尔的净资产增加了5.69亿美元，增幅为20.0%。自现任管理层接手的24年以来，每股账面价值从19.46美元增长到2,974.52美元，年复合增长率约为23.0%。",[14,27,28],{},"我们在过去的报告中一再强调，真正重要的是内在商业价值——这个数字必然是个估算值，代表着我们旗下所有业务到底值多少钱。根据我们的估算，伯克希尔的内在商业价值已大幅超越其账面价值。在过去24年中，内在商业价值的增速一直略快于账面价值的增速；但在1988年，账面价值的增速反而略胜一筹。",[14,30,31],{},"伯克希尔过去在账面价值和内在商业价值上所取得的增长速度，是在与现在截然不同的环境下实现的。如果忽视这些差异，就好比一位棒球教练用一名42岁老将的终身打击率来判断他未来的前景一样荒唐。",[14,33,34],{},"目前对我们前景不利的重要因素包括：(1) 与过去24年相比，股票市场的吸引力整体下降；(2) 大多数投资收入面临更高的公司税率；(3) 企业并购市场的价格高得离谱；(4) 我们的三项永久投资——大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC, Inc.)、盖可保险 (GEICO Corporation) 和华盛顿邮报公司 (The Washington Post Company)——合计约占我们净资产的一半，它们的行业状况与五到十年前相比，从略有下滑到明显不如。这些公司都拥有出色的管理层和强大的资产，但以目前的股价来看，它们向上增长的潜力已远不如几年前那般令人兴奋。",[14,36,37],{},"然而，我们面临的主要问题还是不断膨胀的资本规模。这话各位以前就听过，但这个问题就像年龄一样，每年都在加重。（当然，跟年龄一样，这个问题持续加重总比”被解决”要好。）",[14,39,40],{},"四年前我曾告诉各位，未来十年要维持每年15%的回报率，我们需要赚到39亿美元的利润。时至今日，同样是未来十年15%的目标，这个数字已经暴增到103亿美元。对查理跟我来说，这实在是天文数字。（要是这个数字真的大到不可能实现，查理可能会在以后的报告中被追溯标注为”资深合伙人”。）",[14,42,43],{},"虽然不断膨胀的资本规模会拖累投资回报率，但我们也拥有24年前所没有的一项重要优势。当年，我们所有的资本都困在一个经济效益糟糕透顶的纺织业务里。如今，我们的一部分资本已经投入到一些真正出色的业务当中。",[14,45,46],{},"去年我把这些业务取名为”七圣徒”：布法罗新闻报 (Buffalo News)、菲希海默制服 (Fechheimer)、柯比吸尘器 (Kirby)、内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)、斯科特费泽制造集团 (Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group)、喜诗糖果 (See’s) 和世界图书百科全书 (World Book)。1988年，七圣徒继续凯歌高奏。各位可以从第45页的历史成本财务报表中看到他们的资本回报率有多么惊人，那份报表汇总了七圣徒以及几家较小业务的数据。在完全没有财务杠杆的情况下，这个集团的平均股本回报率高达67%。",[14,48,49],{},"这些业务的卓越表现，在大多数情况下部分归功于出色的经济特许经营权；但在所有情况下，出色的管理都是关键因素。查理跟我所做的贡献，就是放手让这些经理人自由发挥。",[14,51,52],{},"在我看来，这些业务总体上将会持续创造丰厚的回报。我们需要他们的支持：没有他们，伯克希尔不可能有机会达到15%的目标。你们可以放心，我们的经营管理者一定会交出漂亮的成绩单；真正的问号在于，查理跟我能否有效地运用他们所产出源源不绝的现金。",[14,54,55],{},"在这方面，我们在1989年初做出了一个正确的举动——买下了奥马哈的波仙珠宝店 (Borsheim’s) 80%的股权。这项收购案后面会详细说明，它恰恰就是我们要找的东西：一家优秀的企业，由我们喜欢、敬佩且信任的人来经营。这是今年一个美好的开始。",[57,58,59],"h3",{"id":59},"会计原则变动",[14,61,62],{},"1988年执行了一项重要的会计原则变动，展望1990年还会有另一项。当经济实质没有改变，会计报表上的数字却被改来改去，花点工夫讨论一下影响是必要的。",[14,64,65,66,70],{},"首先，我照例先发表免责声明：尽管通用会计准则 (GAAP) 确有其缺点，但我可没本事设计出一套更好的规则。不过，现有准则的局限性不应该成为限制：CEO们完全可以——也应该——把GAAP报表当成是对股东和债权人尽告知义务的起点，而非终点。毕竟，任何一位子公司经理人如果只交出最低限度的GAAP数字，却略去老板所需的关键信息，他肯定会被修理得很惨。那么，CEO本人为什么可以对",[67,68,69],"em",{},"他的","老板——公司的股东们——隐瞒至关重要的信息呢？",[14,72,73],{},"真正需要报告的是数据——不管是GAAP的、非GAAP的还是超越GAAP的——能够帮助懂财务的读者回答三个关键问题：(1) 这家公司大概值多少钱？(2) 它达成未来目标的可能性有多大？(3) 考虑到手上的牌，管理层打得怎么样？",[14,75,76],{},"在大多数情况下，仅凭GAAP报表的最低要求，是很难甚至不可能回答这些问题的。商业世界太过复杂，一套单一的规则不可能有效描述所有企业的经济实质，尤其是像伯克希尔这种经营多种不同业务的企业集团。",[14,78,79],{},"更复杂的是，许多管理层不把GAAP当成应该达到的标准，而是需要克服的障碍。而且他们的会计师往往心甘情愿地给予协助。（客户问：“二加二等于几？”配合的会计师回答：“那要看您想要多少？”）即使是诚实且正直的管理层，有时候也会稍微越过GAAP的边界，好让报表数字更能体现他们的业绩。不管是把收益抹平一些，还是在某个季度来一次”大洗澡”，都是还算正直的管理层常用的”善意谎言”手法。",[14,81,82],{},"还有一些经理人是蓄意利用GAAP来行骗。他们深知许多投资者和债权人把GAAP数字奉为圣旨，于是这些骗子就”富有想象力地”解读规则，记录交易时在技术上符合GAAP，但实际上向世人展示的却是经济幻象。",[14,84,85],{},"只要投资者——包括那些自认精明的机构投资者——继续对稳步攀升的”收益”数字趋之若鹜，你大可放心，一定会有经理人和推销者不顾事实，继续滥用GAAP来制造出这样的数字。多年以来，查理跟我目睹了许多规模惊人的会计诈骗案。很少有犯案者受到惩罚，有些甚至连批评都没挨过。用笔偷大钱，远比用枪抢小钱安全得多。",[14,87,88],{},"根据1988年GAAP的一项重大变更，我们现在被要求在资产负债表和损益表中全面合并所有子公司的数据。过去，互助储贷公司 (Mutual Savings and Loan) 和斯科特费泽金融公司 (Scott Fetzer Financial，主要为世界图书百科全书和柯比吸尘器的分期付款销售提供融资的信贷公司) 只需按”单行认列”法合并，即：(1) 在伯克希尔的合并资产负债表上，将它们的合并净资产中我们应占的权益份额作为一项单独的资产列示；(2) 在合并损益表上，将它们的合并年度收益中我们应占的份额作为一项单独的收入列示。现在规则要求我们必须在资产负债表中逐项合并这些公司的每一项资产和负债，在损益表中逐项合并它们的每一项收入和费用。",[14,90,91],{},"这项变更凸显了公司同时报告分部数据的必要性：在传统财务报表中被混在一起的经济性质迥异的业务越多，这些报表就越没用，投资者也就越难回答前面提出的三个问题。事实上，在伯克希尔，我们编制合并数字的唯一原因就是为了满足外部监管要求。而查理跟我看的，一直是分部数据。",[14,93,94],{},"既然我们现在被要求在GAAP报表中把更多数字混在一起，我们决定公布额外的补充信息，帮助各位衡量企业价值与管理层表现。（伯克希尔履行对债权人义务的能力——我们提到的第三个问题——不管你看什么报表都应该是显而易见的。）在这些补充信息中，我们不一定遵循GAAP程序，甚至不按公司结构来划分。相反，我们会试着按照有助于分析的方式来归类主要业务活动，同时又不至于让各位被过多的细节淹没。我们的目标是站在你们的立场，提供我们认为重要的信息——假如角色互换，我们也希望得到同样的东西。",[14,96,97],{},"我们按以下四个类别分别列示了合并资产负债表和损益表：(1) 金融类业务，包括互助储贷与斯科特费泽金融公司；(2) 保险业务，其主要投资头寸逐项列明；(3) 制造、出版和零售业务，剔除某些非营业资产和购买法会计调整；(4) 其他类别，包括第(3)类公司持有的非营业资产（主要是有价证券投资），以及韦斯科 (Wesco) 和伯克希尔母公司的各项资产与负债。",[14,99,100],{},"如果你把这四个类别的收益和净资产加总，得到的总数将与我们GAAP报表上的数字完全一致。但是我们要强调，这种新的列示方式并未经过审计师审核，他们也丝毫没有为此背书。（事实上，他们可能会被吓坏；我还是不问为好。）",[14,102,103],{},"先前我曾提到1990年预计还有另一项会计原则的重大变更。这项变更涉及递延所得税的计算方法，既复杂又极具争议——争议之大，以至于原定1989年实施的计划被推迟了一年。",[14,105,106],{},"当这项新规则开始实施后，将在多方面影响我们。最重要的是，我们必须改变旗下保险公司所持股票未实现增值的递延所得税负债的计算方式。",[14,108,109],{},"目前我们的税负是分层计算的。对于1986年及更早年份累积的12亿美元未实现增值，我们按28%的税率计提负债。对于之后累积的6亿美元未实现增值，则按34%的税率计提。这一差异反映了1987年生效的税率上调。",[14,111,112],{},"然而，目前看来新的会计准则将要求我们从1990年起将全部未实现增值按34%的税率计提负债，差额计入当期损益。假设到1990年税率不变，仅此一项就将减少我们当年的收益（以及报告净资产）7,100万美元。新规则还会影响资产负债表上的其他项目，但这些变化对收益和净资产的影响很小。",[14,114,115],{},"对于递延所得税计算方式的这项变更是否可取，我们没有特别强烈的看法。不过我们要指出，不管是28%还是34%的税率，都不能准确反映伯克希尔的经济实况，因为我们并没有出售那些为我们带来巨额未实现增值的股票的计划。",[14,117,118],{},"对于那些对会计不感兴趣的读者，我为这番冗长的讨论道歉。我知道你们当中许多人根本不会仔细研究我们的数字，但仍然持有伯克希尔，因为你们知道：(1) 查理跟我把自己绝大部分身家都放在伯克希尔里；(2) 我们决心让你们的盈亏与我们的直接成正比；(3) 到目前为止的记录还算令人满意。这种”信仰”式的投资方法其实没什么不好。不过，另一些股东更偏好”分析”式的方法，我们有必要提供他们所需的信息。在伯克希尔自己做投资时，我们两种方法都用——关键是能不能得出同样的答案。",[57,120,121],{"id":121},"报告收益的来源",[14,123,124],{},"除了向各位提供新的四部门会计资料外，我们一如既往地列出伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。",[14,126,127],{},"在下表中，商誉摊销和其他主要购买法会计调整并未分摊到各业务，而是汇总单独列示。这样做是为了让各位看到旗下各业务的收益状况，如同我们从未收购过它们一样。过去我已经解释过，为什么这种列示方式对投资者和管理者都比标准GAAP（按个别业务逐一调整）更有用。当然，我们在表中列示的净收益总额，与经审计的GAAP财务报表上的总额完全一致。",[14,129,130],{},"有关这些业务的进一步信息，请参阅第32-34页的业务分部章节以及第36-40页的管理层讨论章节，那里也有按GAAP基础报告的分部收益。关于韦斯科的业务，我强烈建议各位阅读查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 的年度信函，从第52页开始。那是我读过的关于引发当前储贷危机事件最好的一篇分析。另外，也请特别关注戴夫·希尔斯特罗姆 (Dave Hillstrom) 在精密钢铁仓储（韦斯科子公司）的业绩表现。精密钢铁所处的行业竞争极其激烈，但戴夫始终能创造出不错的投资资本回报率。虽然手头缺乏数据来证明，但我相信他不管是1988年还是过去这些年的表现，在同行中都能排第一。",[132,133,134,153],"table",{},[135,136,137],"thead",{},[138,139,140,143,146,148,151],"tr",{},[141,142],"th",{},[141,144,145],{},"税前收益",[141,147,145],{},[141,149,150],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[141,152,150],{},[154,155,156,172,185,198,215,232,249,266,283,300,317,334,351,368,383,400,417,434,451,463,480,497,509],"tbody",{},[138,157,158,162,165,168,170],{},[159,160,161],"td",{},"（千美元）",[159,163,164],{},"1988",[159,166,167],{},"1987",[159,169,164],{},[159,171,167],{},[138,173,174,177,179,181,183],{},[159,175,176],{},"经营收益：",[159,178],{},[159,180],{},[159,182],{},[159,184],{},[138,186,187,190,192,194,196],{},[159,188,189],{},"保险集团：",[159,191],{},[159,193],{},[159,195],{},[159,197],{},[138,199,200,203,206,209,212],{},[159,201,202],{},"承保收益",[159,204,205],{},"$ (11,081)",[159,207,208],{},"$ (55,429)",[159,210,211],{},"$ (1,045)",[159,213,214],{},"$ (20,696)",[138,216,217,220,223,226,229],{},[159,218,219],{},"净投资收益",[159,221,222],{},"231,250",[159,224,225],{},"152,483",[159,227,228],{},"197,779",[159,230,231],{},"136,658",[138,233,234,237,240,243,246],{},[159,235,236],{},"布法罗新闻报",[159,238,239],{},"42,429",[159,241,242],{},"39,410",[159,244,245],{},"25,462",[159,247,248],{},"21,304",[138,250,251,254,257,260,263],{},[159,252,253],{},"菲希海默制服",[159,255,256],{},"14,152",[159,258,259],{},"13,332",[159,261,262],{},"7,720",[159,264,265],{},"6,580",[138,267,268,271,274,277,280],{},[159,269,270],{},"柯比吸尘器",[159,272,273],{},"26,891",[159,275,276],{},"22,408",[159,278,279],{},"17,842",[159,281,282],{},"12,891",[138,284,285,288,291,294,297],{},[159,286,287],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[159,289,290],{},"18,439",[159,292,293],{},"16,837",[159,295,296],{},"9,099",[159,298,299],{},"7,554",[138,301,302,305,308,311,314],{},[159,303,304],{},"斯科特费泽制造集团",[159,306,307],{},"28,542",[159,309,310],{},"30,591",[159,312,313],{},"17,640",[159,315,316],{},"17,555",[138,318,319,322,325,328,331],{},[159,320,321],{},"喜诗糖果",[159,323,324],{},"32,473",[159,326,327],{},"31,693",[159,329,330],{},"19,671",[159,332,333],{},"17,363",[138,335,336,339,342,345,348],{},[159,337,338],{},"韦斯科金融（保险除外）",[159,340,341],{},"16,133",[159,343,344],{},"6,209",[159,346,347],{},"10,650",[159,349,350],{},"4,978",[138,352,353,356,359,362,365],{},[159,354,355],{},"世界图书百科全书",[159,357,358],{},"27,890",[159,360,361],{},"25,745",[159,363,364],{},"18,021",[159,366,367],{},"15,136",[138,369,370,373,376,379,381],{},[159,371,372],{},"商誉摊销",[159,374,375],{},"(2,806)",[159,377,378],{},"(2,862)",[159,380,375],{},[159,382,378],{},[138,384,385,388,391,394,397],{},[159,386,387],{},"购买法会计——其他费用",[159,389,390],{},"(6,342)",[159,392,393],{},"(5,546)",[159,395,396],{},"(7,340)",[159,398,399],{},"(6,544)",[138,401,402,405,408,411,414],{},[159,403,404],{},"利息费用*",[159,406,407],{},"(35,613)",[159,409,410],{},"(11,474)",[159,412,413],{},"(23,212)",[159,415,416],{},"(5,905)",[138,418,419,422,425,428,431],{},[159,420,421],{},"股东指定捐赠",[159,423,424],{},"(4,966)",[159,426,427],{},"(4,938)",[159,429,430],{},"(3,217)",[159,432,433],{},"(2,963)",[138,435,436,439,442,445,448],{},[159,437,438],{},"其他",[159,440,441],{},"41,059",[159,443,444],{},"23,217",[159,446,447],{},"27,177",[159,449,450],{},"13,697",[138,452,453,455,457,459,461],{},[159,454],{},[159,456],{},[159,458],{},[159,460],{},[159,462],{},[138,464,465,468,471,474,477],{},[159,466,467],{},"经营收益合计",[159,469,470],{},"418,450",[159,472,473],{},"281,676",[159,475,476],{},"313,441",[159,478,479],{},"214,746",[138,481,482,485,488,491,494],{},[159,483,484],{},"出售证券收益",[159,486,487],{},"131,671",[159,489,490],{},"28,838",[159,492,493],{},"85,829",[159,495,496],{},"19,806",[138,498,499,501,503,505,507],{},[159,500],{},[159,502],{},[159,504],{},[159,506],{},[159,508],{},[138,510,511,514,517,520,523],{},[159,512,513],{},"所有实体收益合计",[159,515,516],{},"$ 550,121",[159,518,519],{},"$ 310,514",[159,521,522],{},"$ 399,270",[159,524,525],{},"$ 234,552",[14,527,528],{},"** 不包含斯科特费泽金融集团的利息费用。*",[14,530,531],{},"旗下各业务所创造的收益，不管以绝对值还是与同业相比，都实在是相当出色。对此，我们要衷心感谢我们的经营管理者们：你和我都应该庆幸能与他们共事。",[14,533,534],{},"在伯克希尔，这样的合作关系可以维持很长很长的时间。我们不会仅仅因为明星经理人到了某个特定年龄就把他们撤换——不管是传统的65岁，还是B夫人 (Mrs. B) 在1988年光明节前夕所达到的95岁。优秀的经理人实在是太稀缺的资源，不能仅仅因为蛋糕上的蜡烛插满了就被丢弃。况且，我们对新出炉的MBA毕业生的经验也不怎么愉快。他们的学业成绩总是光鲜亮丽，面试时总能说出恰当的话；但往往在对公司的全情投入和基本的商业常识上有所欠缺。老实说，要教一条新狗耍老把戏，还真不容易。",[14,536,537],{},"以下是我们非保险业务的最新情况：",[57,539,287],{"id":287},[14,541,542],{},"在内布拉斯加家具店，B夫人（罗丝·布鲁姆金，Rose Blumkin）推着她的购物车继续一路向前。自从44岁那年以500块美金创业至今，她已经当了51年的老板。（想想看，要是当初有1,000块，她会创造出什么样的奇迹！）对B夫人来说，老年永远还要再等十年。",[14,544,545],{},"这家长期以来全美最大的家具店还在持续成长。去年秋天，新开了一家面积达2万平方英尺的独立折扣中心，使我们在各种价位上都能为顾客提供超值好货。",[14,547,548],{},"最近，全美最成功的百货连锁之一——迪拉德百货 (Dillard’s) 进军了奥马哈市场。迪拉德在许多门店都经营成熟的家具部门，业绩无疑相当不错。然而就在奥马哈新店开张前夕，公司董事长威廉·迪拉德 (William Dillard) 宣布，这家新店不卖家具。他提到内布拉斯加家具店时说：“我们不想跟他们竞争。我们认为他们差不多是最好的了。”",[14,550,551],{},"在布法罗新闻报，我们宣扬广告的价值，而我们在内布拉斯加家具店的做法也证明了我们说到做到。过去三年来，NFM一直是《奥马哈世界先驱报》最大的ROP广告客户。（ROP广告是指直接印在报纸上的广告，不同于夹报式广告。）据我所知，在其他任何主要市场中，没有一家家具商是当地报纸的头号广告客户。有时候我们还会在远至得梅因、苏城和堪萨斯城的报纸上刊登大幅广告——效果总是很好。广告确实值得投入，只要你有值得推荐的东西。",[14,553,554],{},"B夫人的儿子路易 (Louie)，以及他的儿子们罗恩 (Ron) 和艾文 (Irv)，组成了一支战无不胜的布鲁姆金梦之队。与这个家族共事实在是一种享受。每一位成员的品格都配得上他们非凡的才能。",[57,556,236],{"id":236},[14,558,559],{},"去年我曾斩钉截铁地说，布法罗新闻报1988年的税前利润率一定会下降。这个预测放在其他任何同等规模或更大的报纸身上，几乎都会说对。但斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey)——谢天谢地有他——成功让我看起来很蠢。",[14,561,562],{},"虽然去年我们的提价幅度略低于行业平均水平，新闻纸成本和工资涨幅也与同业一致，但Stan居然还能把利润率再提高了一点点。在整个报纸行业中，没有人比他有更好的管理记录。而且他取得这样的成绩的同时，还让报纸为读者提供了极其丰富的新闻量。我们相信，我们的”新闻占版比”——报纸中用于刊登新闻的版面比例——在同等规模或更大的主流报纸中是最高的。1988年是49.5%，1987年是49.8%。不管利润率如何波动，我们都会努力将这个比例维持在50%左右。",[14,564,565],{},"查理跟我从年轻时候就热爱新闻事业，买下布法罗新闻报的12年来，我们度过了许多快乐时光。很幸运，在我们接手时就遇到了穆雷·莱特 (Murray Light) 这样出色的总编辑，从那以后他一直让我们深感自豪。",[57,567,321],{"id":321},[14,569,570],{},"喜诗糖果在1988年创纪录地售出了2,510万磅的糖果。十月底的时候，前景看起来并不乐观，但圣诞旺季的销量远超1987年的纪录，扭转了整个局面。",[14,572,573],{},"正如我们以前说过的，喜诗的业务越来越集中在圣诞季。1988年，公司全年税前利润的90%都是在12月份赚到的：3,250万美元中的2,900万。（这足以让你相信圣诞老人真的存在了吧。）12月的生意爆发，使得伯克希尔第四季度的整体收益也跟着水涨船高。另外在第一季度也有一波小高峰，因为世界图书百科全书的年度新版大多在那时候售出。",[14,575,576],{},"查理跟我在买下喜诗糖果大约五分钟后，就让查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins) 来掌管这家公司。看过他这些年来的业绩之后，你大概会纳闷——我们为什么要考虑那么久。",[57,578,253],{"id":253},[14,580,581],{},"在菲希海默制服 (Fechheimer)，赫尔德曼家族 (Heldmans)——鲍勃 (Bob)、乔治 (George)、加里 (Gary)、罗杰 (Roger) 和弗雷德 (Fred)——就是布鲁姆金家族的辛辛那提版。不管是家具零售还是制服制造，从经济特性上看都不是什么吸引人的行业。在这些行业里，只有卓越的管理才能为投资者带来高回报。而五位赫尔德曼家族成员正是做到了这一点。（就像大都会棒球队播报员拉尔夫·基纳 (Ralph Kiner) 曾在比较投手史蒂夫·特劳特 (Steve Trout) 和他的父亲——底特律老虎队名将迪齐·特劳特 (Dizzy Trout) 时说的：“这个家族的遗传基因真不是盖的。”）",[14,583,584],{},"菲希海默在1988年完成了一项规模颇大的并购。查理跟我对赫尔德曼家族的商业嗅觉如此信任，以至于我们连看都没看就同意了这笔交易。放眼全世界，能让我们展现出同等信任的管理层屈指可数——即便是财富500强的顶尖企业也不例外。",[14,586,587],{},"凭借这项并购以及自身的内部成长，菲希海默1989年的营业额可望大幅增长。",[57,589,590],{"id":590},"斯科特费泽",[14,592,593],{},"由拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey) 管理的所有业务——世界图书百科全书、柯比吸尘器和斯科特费泽制造集团——在1988年都表现出色。拉尔夫所管理的资本，继续取得超凡的回报率。",[14,595,596],{},"在斯科特费泽制造集团内部，进步最为突出的是其最大的业务单元——坎贝尔豪斯菲尔德 (Campbell Hausfeld)。这家全美最大的中小型空气压缩机制造商，自1986年以来收益已翻了一倍有余。",[14,598,599],{},"柯比吸尘器和世界图书百科全书的1988年销量都大幅增长，出口业务尤为强劲。9月份，随着莫斯科最大的美国书店开业，世界图书百科全书在苏联也买得到了。我们的产品是该店唯一出售的综合百科全书。",[14,601,602],{},"拉尔夫的个人精力令人叹为观止：除了同时把19项业务经营得井井有条之外，他还积极参与克利夫兰诊所、俄亥俄大学、凯斯西储大学的事务，以及一家风险投资公司——该公司已培育出16家总部位于俄亥俄州的新企业，并让许多其他企业起死回生。俄亥俄州和伯克希尔都很幸运能有拉尔夫站在我们这边。",[57,604,605],{"id":605},"波仙珠宝店",[14,607,608],{},"1983年，伯克希尔买下了内布拉斯加家具店80%的股权。当时你们的董事长犯了一个连小学生都不会犯的错——忘了问B夫人一个显而易见的问题：“你家还有没有其他跟你一样能干的兄弟姐妹？”上个月我纠正了这个错误：我们现在又成了这个家族另一分支的80%合伙人。",[14,610,611],{},"1917年，B夫人从俄国来到美国后（她的另外两个兄弟姐妹比她更早到达），她的父母和五个兄弟姐妹也陆续跟来。其中有一位姐妹丽贝卡·弗里德曼 (Rebecca Friedman)，她和丈夫路易 (Louis) 于1922年途经拉脱维亚向西逃离，其旅途之惊险不亚于B夫人当年向东穿越满洲的历险。当家族成员在奥马哈重聚时，他们没有任何有形资产。然而，他们身上具备了头脑、品格和对工作的热情这一非凡组合——这就是他们所需要的一切。此后的事实证明，他们所向无敌。",[14,613,614],{},"1948年，弗里德曼先生买下了波仙——奥马哈的一家小珠宝店。1950年，他的儿子艾克 (Ike) 也加入了进来。随着时间推移，艾克的儿子艾伦 (Alan)，以及他的女婿马文·科恩 (Marvin Cohn) 和唐纳德·耶鲁 (Donald Yale) 也先后加入。",[14,616,617],{},"你不会感到意外，这个家族给珠宝行业带来的，与布鲁姆金家族给家具行业带来的完全是同一套打法。两家企业共同的基石是B夫人的信条：“卖便宜货，说老实话。”两家企业的其他基本原则也一模一样：(1) 单店经营，但拥有海量库存，为顾客提供各个价位的丰富选择；(2) 高层管理者对日常细节的密切关注；(3) 快速的存货周转；(4) 精明的采购；(5) 低得令人难以置信的运营费用。后三项因素的结合，使得两家店的日常售价全美无人能及。",[14,619,620],{},"大多数人，不管在其他方面多么老练，一到买珠宝的时候就像迷失在森林里的小孩。他们既不会判断品质，也不会判断价格。对他们来说，只有一条规则说得通：不懂珠宝没关系，认准珠宝商就好。",[14,622,623],{},"我可以向你保证，信任艾克·弗里德曼和他的家人的人永远不会失望。我们收购波仙股权的方式本身就是最好的证明。波仙没有经过审计的财务报表；我们既没有盘点存货，也没有核实应收账款，更没有进行任何形式的审计。艾克只是告诉我们实际情况如何——于是我们草拟了一页纸的合同，开出了一大张支票。",[14,625,626],{},"近年来，随着弗里德曼家族声誉的远播，波仙的生意蒸蒸日上。顾客从全美各地远道而来。其中包括我一些来自东西两岸的朋友，事后他们都感谢我带他们去了那里。",[14,628,629],{},"波仙与伯克希尔建立新的联系后，这家企业的经营方式不会有任何改变。弗里德曼家族的所有成员将一如既往地运营；查理跟我会站在旁边默默支持——那才是我们应该待的地方。当我们说”所有成员”时，这话是实打实的。弗里德曼先生和夫人分别已88岁和87岁高龄，仍然每天到店里工作。艾克、艾伦、马文和唐纳德的妻子们在忙碌时节也都会来帮忙，家族的第四代已经开始学习上手了。",[14,631,632],{},"能跟你长久敬佩的人共事，实在是人生一大乐事。弗里德曼家族和布鲁姆金家族一样，他们的成功实至名归。两个家族都把顾客的利益放在首位，而这么做，最终也必然让他们自己获益。我们找不到比他们更好的合伙人了。",[57,634,635],{"id":635},"保险业务",[14,637,638],{},"下表更新了我们一贯提供的保险行业关键数据：",[132,640,641,660],{},[135,642,643],{},[138,644,645,648,651,654,657],{},[141,646,647],{},"年度",[141,649,650],{},"保费收入年增长率 (%)",[141,652,653],{},"法定综合比率（扣除保户红利后）",[141,655,656],{},"损失赔付年增长率 (%)",[141,658,659],{},"通货膨胀率——GNP平减指数 (%)",[154,661,662,679,696,712,728,745,762,778],{},[138,663,664,667,670,673,676],{},[159,665,666],{},"1981",[159,668,669],{},"3.8",[159,671,672],{},"106.0",[159,674,675],{},"6.5",[159,677,678],{},"9.6",[138,680,681,684,687,690,693],{},[159,682,683],{},"1982",[159,685,686],{},"3.7",[159,688,689],{},"109.6",[159,691,692],{},"8.4",[159,694,695],{},"6.4",[138,697,698,701,704,707,710],{},[159,699,700],{},"1983",[159,702,703],{},"5.0",[159,705,706],{},"112.0",[159,708,709],{},"6.8",[159,711,669],{},[138,713,714,717,720,723,726],{},[159,715,716],{},"1984",[159,718,719],{},"8.5",[159,721,722],{},"118.0",[159,724,725],{},"16.9",[159,727,686],{},[138,729,730,733,736,739,742],{},[159,731,732],{},"1985",[159,734,735],{},"22.1",[159,737,738],{},"116.3",[159,740,741],{},"16.1",[159,743,744],{},"3.2",[138,746,747,750,753,756,759],{},[159,748,749],{},"1986",[159,751,752],{},"22.2",[159,754,755],{},"108.0",[159,757,758],{},"13.5",[159,760,761],{},"2.7",[138,763,764,766,769,772,775],{},[159,765,167],{},[159,767,768],{},"9.4",[159,770,771],{},"104.6",[159,773,774],{},"7.8",[159,776,777],{},"3.3",[138,779,780,783,786,789,792],{},[159,781,782],{},"1988（估计）",[159,784,785],{},"3.9",[159,787,788],{},"105.4",[159,790,791],{},"4.2",[159,793,794],{},"3.6",[14,796,797],{},[67,798,799],{},"资料来源：贝氏评级公司 (A.M. Best Co.)",[14,801,802],{},"综合比率代表保险总成本（已发生损失加费用）与保费收入之比：低于100意味着承保盈利，高于100则意味着承保亏损。如果把保险公司持有保户资金（“浮存金”）所赚取的投资收益考虑在内，综合比率在107-111这个范围内，通常可以实现整体收支平衡（不包括股东自有资金产生的收益）。",[14,804,805],{},"基于我们在以往报告中阐述的原因，我们预计行业的已发生损失每年会增长约10%，即使在总体通胀率远低于此的年份也是如此。如果保费增长明显低于这个10%的速度，承保亏损就会扩大，尽管行业在景气不好时习惯性地少提准备金，可能会暂时掩盖亏损的真实规模。如表所示，1988年行业的承保亏损有所增加。这一趋势几乎肯定会继续下去——而且在未来至少两年内可能还会加速。",[14,807,808],{},"财产意外险行业不仅盈利低于正常水平，受欢迎程度也低于正常水平。（正如山姆·戈德温 (Sam Goldwyn) 充满哲理地说过：“在生活中，一个人必须学会品尝苦涩与酸楚。”）商业中有一大讽刺：许多行业做得要死要活、价格还被压得很低，却总要挨客户的骂；而另一些行业赚得盆满钵满，东西贵得离谱，却没人抱怨。",[14,810,811],{},"以早餐麦片行业为例，其投入资本回报率是汽车保险行业的两倍多（这也是为什么家乐氏 (Kellogg) 和通用磨坊 (General Mills) 的市净率高达五倍，而大多数大型保险公司只能以接近账面价值的价格交易）。麦片公司动不动就涨价，而且大多数涨价跟成本大幅上升毫无关系，消费者却连个屁都不放。但要是汽车保险公司提价——哪怕涨幅都赶不上成本的增长——保户马上就炸了。所以，要想被人喜欢，卖高价的玉米片显然比卖低价的汽车保险明智得多。",[14,813,814],{},"公众对保险行业的敌意可能产生严重后果：去年秋天加州通过的103号提案，威胁要大幅压低汽车保险价格，尽管赔付成本一直在飙升。目前法院正在审查这项提案，降价已被暂停执行，但引发这次投票的民怨却丝毫没有消减：即便提案最终被推翻，保险公司在加州想要盈利恐怕也难上加难了。（谢天谢地加州人还没对巧克力糖发火：要是103号提案既适用于保险也适用于糖果，喜诗就得被迫以每磅5.76美元的价格卖糖——而不是我们现在收的7.60美元——那就得亏得一塌糊涂了。）",[14,816,817],{},"这项提案对伯克希尔的直接影响不大，因为即使在投票之前，加州现行的费率结构也很难让我们找到有利可图的机会。但强行压低价格会严重影响盖可保险——我们持有其44%股权——它大约有10%的保费收入来自加州。对盖可保险更具威胁的是，其他州可能会通过提案或立法采取类似行动。",[14,819,820],{},"如果民众坚持要求汽车保险以低于成本的价格出售，那最终只能由政府来承担。股东可以短期补贴保户，但只有纳税人才能长期补贴他们。对于大多数财产意外险公司来说，汽车保险国有化对股东来说并不算什么灾难。由于这个行业具有大宗商品特征，大多数保险公司赚取的回报平平，因此即使被政府强制退出汽车保险市场，也没有什么经济商誉可以损失。但盖可保险就不一样了，因为它是一家低成本运营者，能够赚取高额的股本回报率，所以有巨额的经济商誉面临风险。相应地，我们也是。",[14,822,823],{},"1988年，伯克希尔的保费收入继续下降，而1989年我们预计会因为一个特殊原因而大幅减少：我们从消防员基金保险公司 (Fireman’s Fund) 获得其7%业务份额的合同将于8月31日到期。届时，我们将把与该合同相关的未到期保费退还给对方。这笔资金转移将在我们的”签单保费”账户上体现为约负8,500万美元，使得我们第三季度的数字看起来有些奇怪。不过，这份合同的终止不会对利润产生重大影响。",[14,825,826],{},"伯克希尔1988年的承保业绩依然相当出色。我们的综合比率（按法定基础，扣除结构化结算和金融再保险）为104。损失准备金的后续发展连续第二年呈现有利态势，此前连续多年的情况都很不理想。承保业绩和准备金发展的详细信息见第36-38页。",[14,828,829],{},"在未来几年，我们的保险业务量可能会维持在很低的水平，因为有合理获利潜力的业务几乎肯定会少之又少。随它去。在伯克希尔，我们不可能在预期会亏钱的情况下还去承接保单。光是接那些看起来有赚头的生意，就已经让我们够头疼了。",[14,831,832],{},"尽管——或者也许恰恰因为——业务量低，我们在未来几年的盈利前景很可能比行业整体要好得多。相对于保费收入，我们手上的浮存金规模肯定是特别大的，这对利润来说是个好兆头。1989和1990年，我们的浮存金\u002F保费收入比例预计至少是典型财产意外险公司的三倍。迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg)，在阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain)、迪诺斯·约尔达努 (Dinos Iordanou) 以及国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 管理团队的鼎力协助下，让我们在这方面占据了有利位置。",[14,834,835],{},"在某个时候——我们不知道是什么时候——保险业务会如潮水般涌来。原因可能是某场重大的自然灾害或金融灾难。但我们也可能像1985年那样经历业务量的爆发式增长——当时其他公司因长年杀价竞争导致承保亏损越来越大，同时又猛然意识到自己的损失准备金严重不足。在那之前，我们会留住优秀的专业人才，保护好我们的资本，并尽量避免犯下重大错误。",[57,837,838],{"id":838},"有价证券",[14,840,841],{},"在为保险业务选择有价证券投资时，我们主要有五大类可供选择：(1) 长期普通股投资，(2) 中期固定收益证券，(3) 长期固定收益证券，(4) 短期现金等价物，(5) 短期套利交易。",[14,843,844],{},"对于这五个类别，我们没有特别的偏好。我们只是不断在其中搜寻，寻找以”数学期望值”衡量的最高税后回报，并始终将自己限定在我们自认了解的投资范围之内。我们的标准与短期账面收益最大化无关；我们的目标是让长期净资产最大化。",[57,846,847],{"id":847},"普通股投资",[14,849,850],{},"下表是我们市值超过1亿美元的普通股投资，不包括套利交易（后面再谈）。其中一小部分投资属于伯克希尔非全资控股的子公司所持有。",[132,852,853,869],{},[135,854,855],{},[138,856,857,860,863,866],{},[141,858,859],{},"股份数量",[141,861,862],{},"公司名称",[141,864,865],{},"成本（千美元）",[141,867,868],{},"市值（千美元）",[154,870,871,885,899,913,927],{},[138,872,873,876,879,882],{},[159,874,875],{},"3,000,000",[159,877,878],{},"大都会\u002FABC",[159,880,881],{},"$ 517,500",[159,883,884],{},"$ 1,086,750",[138,886,887,890,893,896],{},[159,888,889],{},"14,172,500",[159,891,892],{},"可口可乐公司",[159,894,895],{},"592,540",[159,897,898],{},"632,448",[138,900,901,904,907,910],{},[159,902,903],{},"2,400,000",[159,905,906],{},"联邦住宅贷款抵押公司优先股*",[159,908,909],{},"71,729",[159,911,912],{},"121,200",[138,914,915,918,921,924],{},[159,916,917],{},"6,850,000",[159,919,920],{},"盖可保险",[159,922,923],{},"45,713",[159,925,926],{},"849,400",[138,928,929,932,935,938],{},[159,930,931],{},"1,727,765",[159,933,934],{},"华盛顿邮报公司",[159,936,937],{},"9,731",[159,939,940],{},"364,126",[14,942,943],{},"** 虽然名义上是优先股，但在财务特性上等同于普通股。*",[14,945,946],{},"我们的永久持股——大都会\u002FABC、盖可保险和华盛顿邮报公司——依旧不变。同样不变的是我们对这些管理层毫无保留的敬佩：大都会的汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy) 和丹·伯克 (Dan Burke)、盖可保险的比尔·斯奈德 (Bill Snyder) 和路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson)、华盛顿邮报的凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆 (Kay Graham) 和迪克·西蒙斯 (Dick Simmons)。查理跟我对他们为各自企业所展现的才能和品格，无比感佩。",[14,948,949],{},"近距离观察他们的表现，与我们从安全距离外观察到的许多其他公司CEO的表现形成了鲜明对比。（所幸我们跟后者之间保持着安全距离。）有些CEO显然不胜任其职位；然而他们的位子通常都是稳如泰山。企业管理中最大的讽刺就是：一个不称职的CEO比一个不称职的下属更容易保住自己的位子。",[14,951,952],{},"比方说，一位秘书应聘时被要求每分钟至少打80个字，入职后发现只能打50个字，她很快就会被炒鱿鱼。这份工作有明确的标准，业绩一目了然，达不到要求就走人。同样的，新进的销售人员如果不能迅速拉来足够的业务，也会被辞退。在纪律面前，借口不能代替订单。",[14,954,955],{},"但一个表现不佳的CEO却往往可以无限期地混下去。原因之一是，衡量其工作表现的标准往往根本不存在。即使有，也写得模糊不清，或者在业绩严重且反复不达标时被含混解释过去。在太多的公司里，老板先射出业绩之箭，然后急忙在箭落之处画上靶心。",[14,957,958],{},"另一个重要但很少被人提起的区别是，CEO没有一个直接上司——而这个上司的表现本身也在被衡量。一个销售经理不可能让一帮庸才长期留在团队里，他必须尽快剔除用人失误，否则连他自己都会有麻烦。一位雇了蹩脚秘书的办公室主管也面临同样的压力。",[14,960,961],{},"但CEO的上司——董事会——却很少审视自己的表现，也极少为低于标准的公司业绩承担责任。如果董事会在用人上犯了错，而且还一错再错，那又怎样？即使公司因此被收购，离任的董事会成员通常也能捞到丰厚的好处。（公司越大，摔得越软。）",[14,963,964],{},"最后，董事会与CEO之间的关系应该是融洽的。在董事会上，批评CEO的表现就好比在社交场合打嗝一样失礼。但从来没有人会禁止办公室主管严厉评估不合格的打字员。",[14,966,967],{},"以上这些并不是要把所有CEO和董事会一棍子打死：大多数人都是能干且勤勉的，其中不乏真正出类拔萃之辈。但查理跟我这些年所见到的管理失败案例，让我们更加感恩能与我们三家永久持股公司的管理者共事。他们热爱自己的事业，思考问题像个老板，浑身散发着才能与正直。",[57,969,971],{"id":970},"房地美和可口可乐","“房地美”和可口可乐",[14,973,974],{},"1988年，我们大手笔买进了联邦住宅贷款抵押公司优先股（“房地美”，Freddie Mac）和可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)。我们打算长期持有这些证券。事实上，当我们持有既拥有出色业务又拥有出色管理层的公司股份时，我们最喜欢的持有期限是——永远。我们跟那些一见公司表现好就急着卖出锁定利润、却顽固地死守那些令人失望的公司的人恰恰相反。彼得·林奇 (Peter Lynch) 曾恰如其分地把这种行为比作拔掉鲜花、浇灌杂草。我们持有房地美的股份已达法律允许的上限，查理在他的信中有详细说明。由于这些股份是由非保险子公司互助储贷所持有，在我们的合并资产负债表中按成本而非市价列示。",[14,976,977],{},"我们继续将投资集中在少数几家我们努力去深入了解的公司上。我们有长期坚定信心的企业只有屈指可数的几家。因此，当我们找到这样的企业时，我们就想大笔参与。我们同意梅·韦斯特 (Mae West) 的看法：“好东西当然是多多益善。”",[57,979,980],{"id":980},"中期固定收益证券",[14,982,983],{},"去年我们减持了约1亿美元的中期免税债券。卖出的债券全部是在1986年8月7日之后购入的。当这类债券由财产意外险公司持有时，其”免税”利息中有15%需要缴税。",[14,985,986],{},"我们仍持有的约8亿美元头寸，几乎全部是适用1986年税改法案”祖父条款”的债券，这意味着它们完全免税。我们的卖出产生了少量利润，剩余债券的平均到期日约为六年，市价略高于账面价值。",[14,988,989],{},"去年我们提到过持有的德士古 (Texaco) 短期和中期债券——当时德士古正处于破产状态。1988年，我们几乎卖掉了所有这些债券，税前利润约2,200万美元。这笔卖出解释了我们资产负债表上固定收益证券减少约1亿美元的大部分原因。",[14,991,992],{},"去年我们还提到了另一项投资，其主要特征类似于中期固定收益产品：我们持有的7亿美元所罗门公司 (Salomon Inc) 9%可转换优先股。这种优先股设有偿债基金，将在1995年到1999年间等额分期赎回。伯克希尔以成本列示这笔投资。基于查理在第69页阐述的原因，这笔投资的估计市价已从去年底略低于成本，转为1988年底略高于成本。",[14,994,995],{},"过去一年中，我们与所罗门CEO约翰·古弗兰 (John Gutfreund) 的密切合作，更加深了我们对他的敬佩。但我们仍然无法对投资银行业的短期、中期或长期经济前景做出判断：这不是一个容易预测未来盈利水平的行业。我们继续相信，在优先股的存续期内，我们的转换权可能具有重要价值。不过，这种优先股的绝大部分价值来自其固定收益特性，而非股权特性。",[57,997,998],{"id":998},"长期固定收益证券",[14,1000,1001],{},"我们对长期债券的厌恶丝毫未改。只有当我们对货币长期购买力的稳定性充满信心时，我们才会对这类证券产生兴趣。而这种稳定性根本无法指望：社会和民选官员有太多优先级更高的事项与购买力稳定性相冲突。我们唯一持有的长期债券是华盛顿公用电力供应系统 (WPPSS) 的债券。其中一些到期日较短，还有许多因为高票息，很可能在未来几年内被赎回。总体而言，我们的WPPSS持仓在资产负债表上的账面价值为2.47亿美元，市价约为3.52亿美元。",[14,1003,1004],{},"我们在1983年的年报中解释了购买WPPSS的理由，现在很高兴向各位报告，这笔投资的表现完全符合预期。买入时，我们的大多数债券税后收益率约为17%，且因评级被暂停而没有评级。最近，这些债券被标准普尔评为AA-级。目前的交易价格仅略低于最高等级债券的水平。",[14,1006,1007],{},"在1983年的年报中，我们把投资WPPSS的经济性与收购一家企业进行了比较。事实证明，如果以1983年至1988年的无杠杆税后回报率来衡量，这笔投资实际上比同期大多数企业并购案表现更好。",[14,1009,1010],{},"不过，我们在WPPSS上的愉快经历并没有改变我们对长期债券的负面看法。它只是让我们希望能再碰上某个遭受不白之冤的大案子——因为暂时的问题使得市价被严重低估。",[57,1012,1013],{"id":1013},"套利",[14,1015,1016],{},"在过去的报告中，我们告诉各位，我们的保险子公司有时会参与套利交易，以替代持有短期现金等价物。当然，我们更喜欢进行大规模的长期投资，但可惜资金总是多于好点子。在这种时候，套利有时能提供远高于国库券的回报，同时还有一个同样重要的作用——冷却我们可能萌生的放松长期投资标准的诱惑。（每次谈完一个套利项目，查理通常会这么总结：“行吧，至少能让你暂时远离酒吧。”）",[14,1018,1019],{},"1988年，我们在套利上赚取了异常丰厚的利润，不管以绝对金额还是回报率来衡量都是如此。平均投入资金约1.47亿美元，税前收益约7,800万美元。",[14,1021,1022],{},"这样的成绩值得我们详细介绍一下套利以及我们的操作方法。最初，“套利”一词仅指在两个不同市场同时买卖相同的证券或外汇，目的是利用微小的价差——比如说在阿姆斯特丹以荷兰盾交易的荷兰皇家石油、在伦敦以英镑交易的和在纽约以美元交易的同一只股票之间的价差。有人管这叫”剃头皮”；从业者选择了更文雅的法语词——arbitrage（套利），这不会让你感到意外。",[14,1024,1025],{},"自第一次世界大战以来，套利——或者现在有时称为”风险套利”——的定义已经扩展到包括从已公开宣布的企业事件中获利，例如公司出售、合并、资本重组、重组、清算、自我要约等。大多数情况下，套利者期望无论股市如何波动都能获利。他面临的主要风险通常不是市场风险，而是宣布的事件最终没有发生。",[14,1027,1028],{},"在套利领域中，偶尔也会冒出一些不同寻常的机会。我24岁时在纽约的格雷厄姆-纽曼公司 (Graham-Newman Corp.) 工作，就曾参与过这样一个案例。布鲁克林有一家叫洛克伍德 (Rockwood & Co.) 的巧克力制品公司，盈利能力有限，1941年时就采用了后进先出法 (LIFO) 来计算存货价值，当时可可的价格只有每磅5美分。到了1954年，可可暂时短缺，价格飙升到每磅60美分以上。洛克伍德自然想趁高价赶紧抛售这批值钱的库存。但如果直接卖掉可可，公司就要为收入缴纳近50%的税。",[14,1030,1031],{},"好在1954年的税法解了围。其中有一条鲜为人知的规定：如果企业是将存货作为缩减经营范围计划的一部分分配给股东，而不是直接出售，那么原本需要缴纳的LIFO利润税就可以豁免。洛克伍德决定终止其中一项业务——可可脂的销售——并声称1,300万磅的可可豆库存归属于该项业务。于是，公司提出用不再需要的可可豆来回购自家股票，每股换80磅可可豆。",[14,1033,1034],{},"接下来好几个星期，我忙得不亦乐乎——买进股票、卖出可可豆，还时不时跑到施罗德信托公司用股票凭证换仓库保管单。利润相当可观，而唯一的成本就是地铁票。",[14,1036,1037],{},"设计洛克伍德重组方案的是一位当时名不见经传、但极为聪明的芝加哥人杰伊·普利兹克 (Jay Pritzker)，当年才32岁。如果你了解杰伊后来的战绩，就不会对这个操作也让洛克伍德的继续持股股东大获其利感到惊讶。从要约收购前后不久，洛克伍德的股价就从15美元涨到了100美元，尽管公司当时的经营还在亏损。有时候，股票估值不仅仅是市盈率那么简单。",[14,1039,1040],{},"近些年来，大部分的套利操作都与收购有关，不管是友善的还是敌意的。并购热潮高涨之际，反垄断挑战几乎不存在，竞价又层层加码，套利客们赚得盆满钵满。他们不需要什么特殊才能就能做得风生水起；诀窍就像皮特·塞勒斯 (Peter Sellers) 在电影里那样——只需”恰好在场”就行。华尔街的老谚语也被改编了：“给一个人一条鱼，你只能养活他一天。教他套利，你能养活他一辈子。”（不过，要是他进了伊凡·博斯基 (Ivan Boesky) 的套利学校学习，那供养他的可能就是州立监狱了。）",[14,1042,1043],{},"评估一项套利机会时，你必须回答四个问题：(1) 已宣布的事件确实发生的可能性有多大？(2) 你的资金会被占用多久？(3) 出现更好结果的概率有多大——比如竞争性收购出价？(4) 如果由于反垄断诉讼、融资故障等原因事件未能发生，将会怎样？",[14,1045,1046],{},"阿卡塔公司 (Arcata Corp.) 是我们比较偶然发现的套利交易之一，它充分说明了这类交易的一波三折。1981年9月28日，阿卡塔的董事原则上同意将公司出售给科尔伯格·克拉维斯·罗伯茨公司 (KKR)——当时和现在都是一家主要的杠杆收购公司。阿卡塔从事印刷和林产品业务，但还有一个额外的利好：1978年，美国政府征收了阿卡塔10,700英亩的林地——主要是原始红木林——以扩建红木国家公园。政府分批支付了9,790万美元的征收款，但阿卡塔认为这个金额远远不够。双方还就征收到最终付款期间应适用的利率产生争议。征收法律规定为6%的单利；阿卡塔则主张适用高得多的复利利率。",[14,1048,1049],{},"收购一家有着高度投机性大额诉讼索赔的公司，会给谈判制造难题，不管这项索赔是对公司有利还是不利。为了化解这个问题，KKR开出的条件是每股37美元，外加政府就红木林额外赔偿款的三分之二。",[14,1051,1052],{},"在评估这项套利机会时，我们必须问自己KKR能否真正完成这笔交易——因为他们的出价附带了获得”满意融资”的条件。这种条款对卖方来说总是很危险的：它给了一个在求婚和结婚之间热情消退的追求者一个轻松的退路。不过我们对此并不特别担心，因为KKR过去完成交易的记录一直不错。",[14,1054,1055],{},"我们还得问自己，如果KKR的交易告吹会怎样？在这一点上我们也觉得还算放心：阿卡塔的管理层和董事会已经在外面兜售公司好一段时间了，出售的决心显而易见。如果KKR退出，阿卡塔很可能会找到另一个买家，当然价格可能会低一些。",[14,1057,1058],{},"最后，我们还得问自己那块红木林的索赔到底能值多少钱。你们的董事长——连榆树和橡树都分不清——处理这个问题倒是毫无困难：他冷静地把这项索赔估值为——介于零到一大笔钱之间。",[14,1060,1061],{},"我们从9月30日开始在33.50美元左右买入阿卡塔股票，八周内买下了约40万股，占该公司5%的股份。最初的公告说37美元将在1982年1月支付。因此，如果一切顺利，我们的年化回报率约为40%——这还不算红木林的索赔，那只是锦上添花。",[14,1063,1064],{},"一切并不顺利。12月份宣布交割将略有推迟。尽管如此，1月4日还是签署了正式协议。受此鼓舞，我们加码至约38美元买入，将持股增加到65.5万股，超过该公司7%的股份。我们愿意付出更高的价格——尽管交割已被推迟——这反映了我们对红木林的价值判断更倾向于”一大笔钱”，而非”零”。",[14,1066,1067],{},"接着在2月25日，银行方面表示”鉴于房地产行业严重萧条及其对阿卡塔前景的影响”，需要对融资条件进行”再审”。股东大会再次延期到4月。阿卡塔的发言人说他”不认为收购本身已经陷入危机”。当套利客听到这种安慰的话时，脑中立刻闪过一句老话：“他撒起谎来，就像贬值前夕的财政部长。”",[14,1069,1070],{},"3月12日，KKR表示原来的交易做不成了，先是把报价砍到33.50美元，两天后又抬高到35美元。然而3月15日，董事会拒绝了这个报价，转而接受了另一个竞标团体的出价——37.50美元，外加红木林补偿款的一半。股东批准了这笔交易，37.50美元于6月4日支付。",[14,1072,1073],{},"我们投入了2,290万美元，收回了2,460万美元；平均持有期约为六个月。考虑到这笔交易过程中的一波三折，15%的年化回报率——还不包括红木林索赔的任何价值——还算令人满意。",[14,1075,1076],{},"不过好戏还在后头。初审法官任命了两个委员会，一个评估林地价值，另一个审议利率问题。1987年1月，第一个委员会认定红木林价值2.757亿美元，第二个委员会建议采用复合混合利率，折算约为14%。",[14,1078,1079],{},"1987年8月，法官支持了这些结论，这意味着阿卡塔将获得约6亿美元的净赔偿金。联邦政府随即提出上诉。但在1988年，上诉还没开庭，双方就以5.19亿美元达成和解。因此，我们又额外收到了每股29.48美元，合计约1,930万美元。1989年我们还会再收到约80万美元。",[14,1081,1082],{},"伯克希尔的套利操作与许多套利客有几个不同之处。首先，每年我们只参与少数——通常是大型的——交易。大多数从业者一年要参与大量交易，可能多达50个甚至更多。同时有这么多锅在炉子上，他们必须花大量时间监控交易进展和相关股票的价格变动。这不是查理跟我想要过的生活。（致富了却整天盯着行情屏幕，这有什么意义？）",[14,1084,1085],{},"因为我们的投资如此集中，一笔特别赚钱或特别赔钱的交易，对我们全年的套利成绩的影响远大于对一般套利机构的影响。到目前为止，伯克希尔还没有遇到过真正惨痛的经历。但那一天终会到来——届时我一定会把血淋淋的细节一五一十地向各位报告。",[14,1087,1088],{},"另一个不同之处在于，我们只参与已经公开宣布的交易。我们不靠传言交易，也不去猜测可能的收购目标。我们只是看看报纸，想想其中几桩大案子，然后依据我们自己判断的概率行事。",[14,1090,1091],{},"到年底，我们唯一的主要套利头寸是334.2万股RJR纳贝斯克 (RJR Nabisco)，成本2.818亿美元，市价3.045亿美元。1月份我们增持到约400万股，2月份则全部清仓。当我们向收购了RJR的KKR提交持股时，约300万股被接受，退回的股份随即在市场上卖出。我们的税前利润为6,400万美元，好于预期。",[14,1093,1094],{},"稍早之前，另一张熟面孔出现在RJR的竞标中：杰伊·普利兹克，他是第一波士顿 (First Boston) 竞标团体的一员，该团体提出了以税务规划为导向的方案。套句尤吉·贝拉 (Yogi Berra) 的话：“简直就是似曾相识再来一遍。”",[14,1096,1097],{},"在我们通常会买入RJR的大部分时间里，我们的操作受到限制，因为所罗门参与了另一个竞标团体。通常情况下，查理跟我虽然是所罗门的董事，但与其并购业务的信息完全隔绝。是我们主动要求这样安排的：那些信息对我们没有好处，事实上有时候反而会妨碍伯克希尔的套利操作。",[14,1099,1100],{},"然而，所罗门提议在RJR交易中投入的资金规模异常庞大，要求所有董事都必须被充分告知并参与。因此，伯克希尔只在两个时间窗口买入了RJR：第一次是在管理层宣布收购计划后的几天内、所罗门尚未介入之前；第二次是在RJR董事会决定接受KKR方案之后的相当一段时间。因为其他时间不能买入，我们的董事职务让伯克希尔损失了不少钱。",[14,1102,1103],{},"看到1988年如此丰硕的套利成果，你也许会期待我们在1989年大举进入套利领域。恰恰相反，我们打算袖手旁观。",[14,1105,1106],{},"一个让人高兴的原因是我们的现金水位已经下降——因为我们大幅增加了打算长期持有的股票头寸。经常阅读本报告的人都知道，我们的新投资决策并非基于对股市短期走势的判断。相反，它们反映的是我们对特定公司长期商业前景的看法。对于一年后的股市、利率或商业活动会怎样，我们从来没有、过去没有、将来也不会有任何看法。",[14,1108,1109],{},"即使我们现金充裕，1989年也可能不会做太多套利。并购领域已经出现了极度的过热。正如多萝西 (Dorothy) 所说：“托托，我觉得我们已经不在堪萨斯了。”",[14,1111,1112],{},"我们不知道这种过热会持续多久，也不知道是什么会改变推波助澜的政府、贷方和买方的态度。但我们确实知道：别人做事越不谨慎，我们自己就应该越谨慎。我们无意参与那些反映了买方和贷方毫无节制的——在我们看来往往也是毫无根据的——乐观情绪的交易。在行动中，我们将牢记赫伯·斯坦因 (Herb Stein) 的智慧：“如果一件事不能永远持续下去，那它就一定会结束。”",[57,1114,1115],{"id":1115},"有效市场理论",[14,1117,1118,1119,1122,1123,1126],{},"前面关于套利的讨论，使得顺便聊几句”有效市场理论”(EMT) 也很应景。这一学说在1970年代变得极为时髦——在学术圈简直被奉为圣经。它的核心主张是，分析股票毫无用处，因为所有公开信息都已经恰当地反映在股价中了。换句话说，市场永远无所不知。作为推论，教授EMT的学者们说，一个人闭着眼睛用飞镖扎股票名单选出来的投资组合，其前景跟最聪明、最勤奋的证券分析师选出来的一样好。令人惊讶的是，EMT不仅受到学术界追捧，还被许多投资专业人士和企业经理人所接受。他们正确地观察到市场",[67,1120,1121],{},"经常","是有效率的，便错误地推论出市场",[67,1124,1125],{},"永远","是有效率的。这两个命题之间的差别，简直如同黑夜与白昼。",[14,1128,1129],{},"就我个人在格雷厄姆-纽曼公司、巴菲特合伙公司和伯克希尔连续63年的套利经验来看，足以说明有效市场理论有多荒唐。（其他的证据也多得是。）当年在格雷厄姆-纽曼公司时，我研究了该公司从1926年到1956年整个存续期间的套利收益。无杠杆年均回报率达到20%。从1956年起，我先在巴菲特合伙公司、后在伯克希尔运用格雷厄姆的套利原则。虽然没有精确计算过，但我做了足够多的功课，知道1956年到1988年间的平均回报率远超20%。（当然，我所处的投资环境比格雷厄姆当年要好得多；他可是经历了1929年到1932年的大萧条。）",[14,1131,1132],{},"这些数据完全符合公平检验投资组合表现所需的所有条件：(1) 这三家机构在63年间交易了数百种不同的证券来积累这一记录；(2) 结果不会因为个别幸运案例而被扭曲；(3) 我们不需要挖掘什么隐秘的事实，也不需要对产品或管理层有什么独到见解——我们只是对高度公开的事件采取行动；(4) 我们的套利头寸构成了一个清晰可辨的集合——它们不是事后精心挑选出来的。",[14,1134,1135],{},"在这63年间，大盘的年均回报率（含股息）略低于10%。这意味着当初投入的1,000美元，如果全部收益都再投资的话，现在会变成40.5万美元。但如果年回报率是20%，现在就会变成9,700万美元。在我们看来，这是一个统计上显著的差异，完全可以激起人们的好奇心。",[14,1137,1138],{},"然而，理论的拥护者似乎从来不对这类不利证据感兴趣。诚然，他们现在谈论自己的理论不像以前那么起劲了。但据我所知，从来没有一个人承认自己错了——不管他已经送出了多少被误导的学生。而且，EMT至今仍是各大商学院投资课程的重要组成部分。看来，死不悔改、拒绝自揭其短，并非神学家的专利。",[14,1140,1141],{},"自然而然地，这些学生和轻信EMT的投资专业人士所受到的损害，对我们和格雷厄姆的其他追随者来说却是天大的恩惠。在任何竞赛中——不管是金融、智力还是体能方面——如果你的对手被教导说连尝试都是徒劳的，那你就占了天大的便宜。从自私的角度来说，格雷厄姆学派或许应该捐建几个教授席位，以确保EMT在校园中千秋万代地传承下去。",[14,1143,1144],{},"说了这么多，最后还是要给一个忠告。套利最近看起来很容易。但这并不是一种能保证每年赚20%、甚至保证有任何盈利的投资方式。正如前面提到的，市场在大多数时候还是相当有效率的：在这63年间，我们实际抓住的每一个套利机会背后，还有更多是因为定价合理而被我们放弃了。",[14,1146,1147],{},"一个投资者不可能仅靠锁定某个特定的投资类别或风格就获得超额回报。他只有通过仔细评估事实并持续遵守纪律才能做到。就套利投资本身而言，作为一种策略，并不比扔飞镖选股高明到哪里去。",[57,1149,1150],{"id":1150},"纽约证券交易所挂牌",[14,1152,1153],{},"伯克希尔的股票于1988年11月29日在纽约证券交易所挂牌交易。我们写给股东的有关挂牌的信函附在后面。",[14,1155,1156],{},"让我澄清那封信中没有涉及的一点：虽然我们在纽交所的基本交易单位是10股，但1股以上的任何数量都可以买卖。",[14,1158,1159],{},"正如信中所述，我们挂牌的首要目的是降低交易成本，我相信这个目的已经达到。一般来说，纽交所上买卖报价之间的价差远低于之前场外交易市场的价差。",[14,1161,1162],{},"负责伯克希尔股票交易的是亨德森兄弟公司 (Henderson Brothers, Inc.)，这是交易所最资深的做市商；其前身威廉·托马斯·亨德森 (William Thomas Henderson) 于1861年9月8日以500美元购得一个交易所席位。（最近席位的成交价大约是62.5万美元。）在54家做市商中，HBI被分配的股票数量排名第二，共83只。我们很高兴伯克希尔被分配给HBI，对该公司的服务也十分满意。HBI的董事长吉姆·马奎尔 (Jim Maguire) 亲自负责伯克希尔的交易，他是我们能找到的最佳人选。",[14,1164,1165],{},"在两个方面，我们的目标可能与大多数上市公司有所不同。第一，我们不追求伯克希尔的股价越高越好。我们希望股价在以内在商业价值为中心的窄幅区间内交易（当然我们希望内在价值以合理的速度增长——如果能以不合理的速度增长就更好了）。查理跟我既不愿看到股价被严重高估，也不愿看到被严重低估。这两种极端都会不可避免地导致许多股东的投资结果与伯克希尔的经营业绩严重背离。如果我们的股价始终如实反映企业价值，那么每位股东在其持股期间获得的投资回报，都会大致与伯克希尔的经营业绩相匹配。",[14,1167,1168],{},"第二，我们希望交易量越少越好。如果我们经营的是一家只有几位被动合伙人的私人企业，我们当然不希望那些合伙人及其替代者频繁地想要退出。经营一家上市公司，我们的想法也是一样的。",[14,1170,1171],{},"我们的目标是吸引长期持股的股东——他们在买入时没有卖出的时间表或价格目标，而是打算与我们无限期地同在。我们不理解那些希望自家股票交投活跃的CEO，因为这只有在大量股东不断退出的情况下才能实现。在其他什么组织里——学校、俱乐部、教堂——领导者会为成员的离去而欢呼？（不过，如果有一个经纪人的生计取决于此类组织的成员流动率，你可以确信至少会有一个人鼓吹换来换去，比如说：“基督教最近也没什么搞头，不如下周咱改信佛教试试。”）",[14,1173,1174],{},"当然，有些伯克希尔股东时不时需要或想要卖出，我们也希望有好的接手者以公平的价格来买。因此，我们试图通过我们的政策、业绩和沟通，吸引那些了解我们业务运作、认同我们的时间视角、并且用我们衡量自己的方式来衡量我们的新股东。如果我们能够持续吸引这样的股东——同时也很重要的是，对那些怀有短期或不切实际期望的人不具吸引力——伯克希尔的股价就应该始终在与企业价值合理相关的水平上交易。",[57,1176,1178],{"id":1177},"大卫多德","大卫·多德",[14,1180,1181],{},"与我相交38年、亦师亦友的大卫·多德 (Dave Dodd) 于去年以93岁高龄辞世。你们大多数人可能不知道他是谁。但伯克希尔的许多长期股东之所以更加富有，在很大程度上要归功于他对本公司的间接影响。",[14,1183,1184,1185,1188],{},"大卫一辈子在哥伦比亚大学教书，他与本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 合著了《证券分析》(",[67,1186,1187],{},"Security Analysis",")。从我踏进哥伦比亚的那一刻起，大卫就在不断地鼓励和教导我；两方面的影响同样重要。他教给我的一切——不管是面对面还是通过他的著作——都合情合理。后来通过数十封通信，他一直教导我到离世为止。",[14,1190,1191],{},"我认识许多财务和投资学教授，但除了格雷厄姆之外，没有人能与大卫相提并论。他才能的最好证明就是他学生的成就：没有其他投资学教师培养出如此多取得非凡成就的学生。",[14,1193,1194],{},"当学生走出大卫的教室时，他们就具备了终身明智投资的能力，因为他所传授的原则是如此简单、扎实、有用且持久。虽然这些看起来似乎算不上什么了不起的优点，但能够教授蕴含这些优点的原则，实属罕见。",[14,1196,1197],{},"尤其令人佩服的是，大卫能够言行一致。正如凯恩斯 (Keynes) 将自己的学术理念应用于一笔很小的资金而致富一样，大卫也是如此。事实上，他的投资业绩远远超过凯恩斯。凯恩斯一开始是个市场择时者（依靠商业和信用周期理论），经过长期思考后才转向价值投资。大卫从一开始就走在了正确的道路上。",[14,1199,1200],{},"在伯克希尔的投资中，查理跟我运用的正是大卫和格雷厄姆传授的原则。我们的繁荣正是他们智慧之树上结出的果实。",[57,1202,438],{"id":438},[14,1204,1205],{},"我们希望能够收购更多与现有业务类似的企业，在这方面我们需要各位的帮助。如果你有一家符合以下条件的企业，请打电话或最好写信给我。",[14,1207,1208],{},"以下是我们寻找的目标：",[1210,1211,1212,1216,1219,1222,1225,1228],"ol",{},[1213,1214,1215],"li",{},"具有一定的规模（税后净利润至少达到1,000万美元），",[1213,1217,1218],{},"展现出持续稳定的盈利能力（我们对未来预测不感兴趣，也不碰”困境反转”型企业），",[1213,1220,1221],{},"企业在很少或没有负债的情况下，取得了良好的股本回报率，",[1213,1223,1224],{},"拥有现成的管理团队（我们无法提供管理），",[1213,1226,1227],{},"简单易懂的商业模式（如果涉及大量高科技，我们搞不明白），",[1213,1229,1230],{},"有明确的报价（在价格未知的情况下，我们不想浪费彼此的时间，即使是初步谈谈也不行）。",[14,1232,1233],{},"我们不会进行敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并会非常迅速地给出答复——通常在五分钟之内——告诉你我们是否有兴趣。我们倾向于现金交易，但如果我们获得的内在商业价值与我们付出的一样多，也会考虑发行股份。",[14,1235,1236],{},"我们最喜欢的交易模式是布鲁姆金-弗里德曼-赫尔德曼式的。在这类案例中，公司的所有者兼经营者希望获得一大笔现金——有时是为了自己，但更多时候是为了家人或不参与经营的股东。然而，这些经理人同时也希望继续持有重要股份，并像以往一样继续管理公司。我们认为，对于有这类目标的业主，我们能提供一个特别理想的方案。我们欢迎潜在的卖家与过去和我们做过生意的人了解情况。",[14,1238,1239],{},"查理跟我经常收到一些远不符合我们标准的收购提案：我们发现，如果你登广告说想买牧羊犬，一大堆人会打电话来想卖给你可卡犬。对于新创企业、困境反转型公司或是拍卖式交易，我们的态度最好用戈德温的另一句话来表达：“请不要算上我。”",[14,1241,1242],{},"除了如上所述收购整家企业外，我们也有兴趣协商购买大额但非控股性质的股份——就像我们持有大都会和所罗门的股份那样。我们对购买可转换优先股作为长期投资特别有兴趣，就像我们在所罗门所做的那样。",[1244,1245],"hr",{},[14,1247,1248],{},"几周前我们收到了一个好消息：标准普尔将我们的信用评级提升至AAA——这是它授予的最高评级。目前全美只有另外15家工业或财产意外险公司拥有AAA评级，而1980年是28家。",[14,1250,1251],{},"过去几年，企业债持有人在”事件风险”上吃了不少苦头。这个术语指的是：一家此前财务政策一直保守的企业，因为进行了高杠杆收购或资本重组，信用评级在一夜之间被大幅调降。在这个充斥着收购的世界里，只有少数企业的经营者同时也是所有者，大多数公司都面临这种风险。伯克希尔不会。查理跟我向债券持有人承诺，我们对他们的尊重与对股东无异。",[1244,1253],{},[14,1255,1256],{},"大约97.4%的合格股份参与了伯克希尔1988年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐出的款项为500万美元，受益慈善机构共2,319家。如果经营业绩理想，我们计划在1989年提高每股捐赠金额。",[14,1258,1259],{},"我们敦促新股东阅读有关股东指定捐赠计划的说明。如果你希望参与未来的计划，我们强烈建议你立即确保你的股份登记在实际持有人名下，而不是登记在经纪人、银行或存管机构的代理人名下。未在1989年9月30日前完成实名登记的股份将无资格参与1989年的计划。",[1244,1261],{},[14,1263,1264],{},"伯克希尔的年度股东大会将于1989年4月24日星期一在奥马哈举行，希望各位都能前来。会议为各位提供了一个场合，你们可以提出任何与股东身份相关的问题，我们会一直回答到所有问题都得到解答为止（除了那些涉及投资组合内容或其他专有信息的问题）。",[14,1266,1267],{},"会后，我们将安排几辆巴士，带有兴趣的股东去看望内布拉斯加家具店的B夫人和波仙珠宝店的艾克·弗里德曼。做好捡便宜的准备吧。",[14,1269,1270],{},"外地来的股东或许愿意提早到达，周日中午到下午五点是B夫人家具店的营业时间。（这周日几小时的营业时间在B夫人看来短得可笑，她觉得刚热身就要关门了；她更喜欢平日从早上十点一直开到晚上九点。）不过，波仙珠宝店周日不营业。",[14,1272,1273],{},"记得问B夫人地毯价格为何低得不可思议的秘密。她会悄悄告诉你——就像她告诉所有人一样——她是怎么做到的：“我之所以能卖这么便宜，是因为我给一个什么都不懂的傻瓜打工。”",[14,1275,1276],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1278,1279],{},"董事长",[14,1281,1282],{},"1989年2月28日",{"title":1284,"searchDepth":1285,"depth":1285,"links":1286},"",2,[1287,1289,1290,1291,1292,1293,1294,1295,1296,1297,1298,1299,1300,1301,1302,1303,1304,1305,1306],{"id":59,"depth":1288,"text":59},3,{"id":121,"depth":1288,"text":121},{"id":287,"depth":1288,"text":287},{"id":236,"depth":1288,"text":236},{"id":321,"depth":1288,"text":321},{"id":253,"depth":1288,"text":253},{"id":590,"depth":1288,"text":590},{"id":605,"depth":1288,"text":605},{"id":635,"depth":1288,"text":635},{"id":838,"depth":1288,"text":838},{"id":847,"depth":1288,"text":847},{"id":970,"depth":1288,"text":971},{"id":980,"depth":1288,"text":980},{"id":998,"depth":1288,"text":998},{"id":1013,"depth":1288,"text":1013},{"id":1115,"depth":1288,"text":1115},{"id":1150,"depth":1288,"text":1150},{"id":1177,"depth":1288,"text":1178},{"id":438,"depth":1288,"text":438},"致股东信",null,"1988年巴菲特致股东信，首次大规模投资可口可乐、探讨内在价值评估方法","md",{},true,59,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1309},"1988 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有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":1328,"slug":1329,"category":1330,"order":1326},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1332,"slug":1333,"category":1334,"order":1326},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1336,"slug":1337,"category":1325,"order":1285},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1339,"slug":1340,"category":1330,"order":1285},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1342,"slug":1343,"category":1334,"order":1285},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1345,"slug":1346,"category":1325,"order":1288},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1348,"slug":1349,"category":1330,"order":1288},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1351,"slug":1352,"category":1334,"order":1288},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1354,"slug":1355,"category":1325,"order":1356},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1358,"slug":1359,"category":1330,"order":1356},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1361,"slug":1362,"category":1334,"order":1356},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1364,"slug":1365,"category":1325,"order":1366},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1368,"slug":1369,"category":1330,"order":1366},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1371,"slug":1372,"category":1334,"order":1366},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1374,"slug":1375,"category":1325,"order":1376},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1378,"slug":1379,"category":1330,"order":1376},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1381,"slug":1382,"category":1334,"order":1376},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1384,"slug":1385,"category":1325,"order":1386},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1388,"slug":1389,"category":1330,"order":1386},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1391,"slug":1392,"category":1334,"order":1386},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1394,"slug":1395,"category":1325,"order":1396},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1398,"slug":1399,"category":1330,"order":1396},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1401,"slug":1402,"category":1334,"order":1396},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1404,"slug":1405,"category":1325,"order":1406},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1408,"slug":1409,"category":1330,"order":1406},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1411,"slug":1412,"category":1334,"order":1406},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1414,"slug":1415,"category":1325,"order":1416},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1418,"slug":1419,"category":1330,"order":1416},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1421,"slug":1422,"category":1334,"order":1416},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1424,"slug":1425,"category":1325,"order":1426},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1428,"slug":1429,"category":1330,"order":1426},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1431,"slug":1432,"category":1334,"order":1426},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1434,"slug":1435,"category":1325,"order":1436},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1438,"slug":1439,"category":1330,"order":1436},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1441,"slug":1442,"category":1334,"order":1436},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1444,"slug":1445,"category":1325,"order":1446},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1448,"slug":1449,"category":1330,"order":1446},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1451,"slug":1452,"category":1334,"order":1446},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1454,"slug":1455,"category":1325,"order":1456},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1458,"slug":1459,"category":1330,"order":1456},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1461,"slug":1462,"category":1334,"order":1456},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1464,"slug":1465,"category":1325,"order":1466},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1468,"slug":1469,"category":1330,"order":1466},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1471,"slug":1472,"category":1334,"order":1466},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1474,"slug":1475,"category":1325,"order":1476},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":1478,"slug":1479,"category":1330,"order":1476},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1481,"slug":1482,"category":1334,"order":1476},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1484,"slug":1485,"category":1325,"order":1486},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1488,"slug":1489,"category":1330,"order":1486},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1491,"slug":1492,"category":1334,"order":1486},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1494,"slug":1495,"category":1325,"order":1496},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1498,"slug":1499,"category":1330,"order":1496},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1501,"slug":1502,"category":1334,"order":1496},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1504,"slug":1505,"category":1307,"order":1506},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":1508,"slug":1509,"category":1330,"order":1506},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1511,"slug":1512,"category":1334,"order":1506},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1514,"slug":1515,"category":1325,"order":1516},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1518,"slug":1519,"category":1330,"order":1516},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1521,"slug":1522,"category":1334,"order":1516},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1524,"slug":1525,"category":1325,"order":1526},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1528,"slug":1529,"category":1330,"order":1526},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1531,"slug":1532,"category":1334,"order":1526},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1534,"slug":1535,"category":1325,"order":1536},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1538,"slug":1539,"category":1330,"order":1536},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1541,"slug":1542,"category":1334,"order":1536},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1544,"slug":1545,"category":1307,"order":1546},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1548,"slug":1549,"category":1330,"order":1546},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1551,"slug":1552,"category":1334,"order":1546},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1554,"slug":1555,"category":1325,"order":1556},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1558,"slug":1559,"category":1330,"order":1556},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1561,"slug":1562,"category":1334,"order":1556},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1564,"slug":1565,"category":1325,"order":1566},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1568,"slug":1569,"category":1330,"order":1566},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1571,"slug":1572,"category":1334,"order":1566},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1574,"slug":1575,"category":1325,"order":1576},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1578,"slug":1579,"category":1330,"order":1576},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1581,"slug":1582,"category":1334,"order":1576},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1584,"slug":1585,"category":1307,"order":1586},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1588,"slug":1589,"category":1330,"order":1586},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1591,"slug":1592,"category":1334,"order":1586},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1594,"slug":1595,"category":1325,"order":1596},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1598,"slug":1599,"category":1330,"order":1596},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1601,"slug":1602,"category":1334,"order":1596},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1604,"slug":1605,"category":1325,"order":1606},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1608,"slug":1609,"category":1330,"order":1606},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1611,"slug":1612,"category":1334,"order":1606},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1614,"slug":1615,"category":1325,"order":1616},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1618,"slug":1619,"category":1330,"order":1616},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1621,"slug":1622,"category":1334,"order":1616},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1624,"slug":1625,"category":1325,"order":1626},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1628,"slug":1629,"category":1330,"order":1626},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1631,"slug":1632,"category":1334,"order":1626},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1634,"slug":1635,"category":1307,"order":1636},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1638,"slug":1639,"category":1330,"order":1636},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1641,"slug":1642,"category":1334,"order":1636},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1644,"slug":1645,"category":1325,"order":1646},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1648,"slug":1649,"category":1330,"order":1646},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1651,"slug":1652,"category":1334,"order":1646},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1654,"slug":1655,"category":1325,"order":1656},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1658,"slug":1659,"category":1330,"order":1656},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1661,"slug":1662,"category":1307,"order":1663},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1665,"slug":1666,"category":1330,"order":1663},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1668,"slug":1669,"category":1325,"order":1670},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1672,"slug":1673,"category":1330,"order":1670},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1675,"slug":1676,"category":1325,"order":1677},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1679,"slug":1680,"category":1330,"order":1677},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1682,"slug":1683,"category":1325,"order":1684},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1686,"slug":1687,"category":1330,"order":1684},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1689,"slug":1690,"category":1325,"order":1691},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1693,"slug":1694,"category":1330,"order":1691},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1696,"slug":1697,"category":1307,"order":1698},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1700,"slug":1701,"category":1330,"order":1698},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1703,"slug":1704,"category":1325,"order":1705},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1707,"slug":1708,"category":1330,"order":1705},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1710,"slug":1711,"category":1307,"order":1712},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1714,"slug":1715,"category":1330,"order":1712},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1717,"slug":1718,"category":1307,"order":1719},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1721,"slug":1722,"category":1330,"order":1719},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1724,"slug":1725,"category":1307,"order":1726},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1728,"slug":1729,"category":1330,"order":1726},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1731,"slug":1732,"category":1307,"order":1733},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1735,"slug":1736,"category":1330,"order":1733},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1738,"slug":1739,"category":1307,"order":1740},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1742,"slug":1743,"category":1330,"order":1740},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1745,"slug":1746,"category":1307,"order":1747},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1749,"slug":1750,"category":1330,"order":1747},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1752,"slug":1753,"category":1307,"order":1754},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1756,"slug":1757,"category":1330,"order":1754},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1759,"slug":1760,"category":1307,"order":1761},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1763,"slug":1764,"category":1330,"order":1761},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1766,"slug":1767,"category":1307,"order":1768},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1770,"slug":1771,"category":1330,"order":1768},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1773,"slug":1774,"category":1307,"order":1775},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1777,"slug":1778,"category":1330,"order":1775},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1780,"slug":1781,"category":1307,"order":1782},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1784,"slug":1785,"category":1330,"order":1782},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1787,"slug":1788,"category":1307,"order":1789},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1791,"slug":1792,"category":1330,"order":1789},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1794,"slug":1795,"category":1307,"order":1796},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1798,"slug":1799,"category":1330,"order":1796},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1801,"slug":1802,"category":1307,"order":1803},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1805,"slug":1806,"category":1330,"order":1803},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1808,"slug":1809,"category":1307,"order":1810},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1812,"slug":1813,"category":1330,"order":1810},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1815,"slug":1816,"category":1307,"order":1817},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1819,"slug":1820,"category":1330,"order":1817},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1822,"slug":1823,"category":1307,"order":1824},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1826,"slug":1827,"category":1330,"order":1824},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":5,"slug":1317,"category":1307,"order":1313},{"title":1830,"slug":1831,"category":1330,"order":1313},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1833,"slug":1834,"category":1307,"order":1835},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1837,"slug":1838,"category":1330,"order":1835},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1840,"slug":1841,"category":1307,"order":1842},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1844,"slug":1845,"category":1330,"order":1842},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1847,"slug":1848,"category":1307,"order":1849},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1851,"slug":1852,"category":1330,"order":1849},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1854,"slug":1855,"category":1307,"order":1856},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1858,"slug":1859,"category":1330,"order":1856},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1861,"slug":1862,"category":1307,"order":1863},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1865,"slug":1866,"category":1330,"order":1863},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1868,"slug":1869,"category":1307,"order":1870},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1872,"slug":1873,"category":1330,"order":1870},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1875,"slug":1876,"category":1307,"order":1877},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1879,"slug":1880,"category":1330,"order":1877},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1882,"slug":1883,"category":1307,"order":1884},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1886,"slug":1887,"category":1330,"order":1884},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1889,"slug":1890,"category":1307,"order":1891},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1893,"slug":1894,"category":1330,"order":1891},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1896,"slug":1897,"category":1307,"order":1898},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1900,"slug":1901,"category":1330,"order":1898},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1903,"slug":1904,"category":1307,"order":1905},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1907,"slug":1908,"category":1330,"order":1905},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1910,"slug":1911,"category":1307,"order":1912},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1914,"slug":1915,"category":1330,"order":1912},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1917,"slug":1918,"category":1307,"order":1919},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1921,"slug":1922,"category":1330,"order":1919},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1924,"slug":1925,"category":1307,"order":1926},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1928,"slug":1929,"category":1330,"order":1926},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1931,"slug":1932,"category":1307,"order":1933},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1935,"slug":1936,"category":1330,"order":1933},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1938,"slug":1939,"category":1307,"order":1940},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1942,"slug":1943,"category":1330,"order":1940},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1945,"slug":1946,"category":1307,"order":1947},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1949,"slug":1950,"category":1330,"order":1947},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1952,"slug":1953,"category":1307,"order":1954},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1956,"slug":1957,"category":1330,"order":1954},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1959,"slug":1960,"category":1307,"order":1961},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1963,"slug":1964,"category":1330,"order":1961},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1966,"slug":1967,"category":1307,"order":1968},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1970,"slug":1971,"category":1330,"order":1968},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1973,"slug":1974,"category":1307,"order":1975},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1977,"slug":1978,"category":1330,"order":1975},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1980,"slug":1981,"category":1307,"order":1982},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1984,"slug":1985,"category":1330,"order":1982},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1987,"slug":1988,"category":1307,"order":1989},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1991,"slug":1992,"category":1330,"order":1989},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1994,"slug":1995,"category":1307,"order":1996},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1998,"slug":1999,"category":1330,"order":1996},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2001,"slug":2002,"category":1307,"order":2003},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2005,"slug":2006,"category":1330,"order":2003},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2008,"slug":2009,"category":1307,"order":2010},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2012,"slug":2013,"category":1330,"order":2010},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2015,"slug":2016,"category":1307,"order":2017},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2019,"slug":2020,"category":1330,"order":2017},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2022,"slug":2023,"category":1307,"order":2024},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2026,"slug":2027,"category":1330,"order":2024},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2029,"slug":2030,"category":1307,"order":2031},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2033,"slug":2034,"category":1330,"order":2031},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2036,"slug":2037,"category":1307,"order":2038},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2040,"slug":2041,"category":1330,"order":2038},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2043,"slug":2044,"category":1307,"order":2045},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2047,"slug":2048,"category":1330,"order":2045},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2050,"slug":2051,"category":1307,"order":2052},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2054,"slug":2055,"category":1330,"order":2052},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2057,"slug":2058,"category":1307,"order":2059},"2019 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