[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3377},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1841,"library-sidebar-dao":2843,"library-sidebar-models":3145},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1827,"date":1828,"description":1829,"extension":1830,"meta":1831,"navigation":1832,"order":1833,"path":1834,"seo":1835,"seoDescription":1829,"seoTitle":1836,"slug":1837,"stem":1838,"__hash__":1839,"_collection":1840},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1993 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1812},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66,70,78,81,84,87,90,93,96,99,102,105,108,111,523,529,535,538,541,544,547,550,553,556,814,828,831,834,837,840,843,846,849,852,855,858,861,864,867,870,873,876,883,886,1341,1344,1347,1354,1357,1360,1363,1366,1369,1372,1375,1378,1381,1384,1522,1525,1528,1535,1538,1541,1544,1551,1554,1557,1568,1571,1574,1591,1594,1601,1604,1607,1610,1613,1616,1619,1622,1625,1632,1635,1638,1641,1644,1647,1650,1653,1656,1659,1662,1665,1668,1671,1674,1677,1680,1683,1689,1692,1718,1721,1724,1727,1733,1736,1739,1742,1749,1751,1754,1757,1759,1762,1765,1768,1770,1773,1776,1779,1782,1785,1788,1791,1794,1797,1800,1803,1806,1809],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1993-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,21,22],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,24,25],{},"1993年，我们的每股账面价值增长了14.3%。自现任管理层接手的29年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元成长到目前的8,854美元，年复合增长率约为23.3%。",[14,27,28],{},"回顾过去一年，伯克希尔 (Berkshire) 的净资产增加了15亿美元，这个数字受到两项负面因素和两项正面因素的影响。为了讲清楚，我把它们列在下面。不过如果各位对会计没什么兴趣，尽管跳过这段不看：",[30,31,32,36,39,42],"ol",{},[33,34,35],"li",{},"第一个负面因素来自通用会计准则 (GAAP) 的变更，涉及我们按市价列示的有价证券未实现增值所计提的税款。旧规定要求按增值发生时适用的税率来计算。因此，在1992年底，我们对1986年之后产生的64亿美元利得使用34%的税率，对此前产生的12亿美元利得使用28%的税率。新规定则要求统一按现行税率计算所有利得。1993年一季度新规生效时适用的税率为34%。将该税率应用于1987年之前的利得，使我们的净资产减少了7,000万美元。",[33,37,38],{},"第二个负面因素与第一个相关——1993年第三季度企业税率被提高到35%。这意味着我们所有的未实现利得需要额外多提1%的税款，导致净资产再减少7,500万美元。奇怪的是，GAAP要求这两项调整都从报告收益中扣除，尽管引发这些税负的未实现增值从来没有被计入过利润，而是直接计入了净资产。",[33,40,41],{},"1993年GAAP的另一项变更影响的是我们持有的有价证券的估值方式。近年来，我们保险公司持有的普通股和约当普通股（可转换优先股等）都按市价计算，但母公司或非保险子公司持有的股票则按成本与市价孰低法计算。现在GAAP规定所有普通股都应按市价列示。我们从1993年第四季度开始执行这一规定，此举使伯克希尔的净资产增加了约1.72亿美元。",[33,43,44],{},"最后，我们去年发行了一些新股。在去年年报提到的一项交易中，我们于1993年1月初赎回了4,600万美元的可转换债券，并因此发行了3,944股。此外，在收购德克斯特鞋业 (Dexter Shoe) 时（后文会详细讨论），我们又发行了25,203股。总计新发行29,147股，净资产增加约4.78亿美元。每股账面价值也因发行价格高于原有每股账面价值而有所提升。",[14,46,47],{},"当然，真正重要的是每股内在价值，而非账面价值。账面价值是一个会计概念，衡量的是一家企业投入的资本，包括留存收益在内。内在价值则是对一家企业在其剩余寿命中所能产出的现金流的折现估计值。对大多数公司而言，这两个数字并没有什么关系。但伯克希尔是个例外：我们的账面价值虽然远低于内在价值，却是追踪这一关键数字相当好的指标。1993年，两项指标大约都增长了14%，这个成绩虽令人满意但并不令人惊喜。",[14,49,50],{},"不过，这个增幅比起伯克希尔股价39%的涨幅来说就逊色不少了。当然就长期而言，市价与内在价值终将殊途同归。但短期内两者经常大幅偏离，这种现象我以前也讨论过。两年前，我们两个主要的持股——可口可乐 (Coca-Cola) 和吉列 (Gillette)——的股价涨幅远远超过了它们的盈利增长。在1991年的年报中，我说过这些公司的股票市价不可能持续超越其本业表现。",[14,52,53],{},"从1991年到1993年，可口可乐和吉列的每股经营收益分别增长了38%和37%，但同期股价涨幅仅为11%和6%。换句话说，本业表现超越了股价表现，部分原因无疑在于华尔街对品牌公司产生了新的疑虑。但不管原因是什么，长期来看真正重要的还是这些公司的盈利表现。如果它们经营得好，伯克希尔也会跟着受益，尽管步调不一定完全一致。",[14,55,56],{},"接下来让我给各位上一堂历史课：1919年可口可乐以每股40美元公开上市。到1920年底，市场冷静地重新评估可口可乐的前景后，股价暴跌超过50%至19.50美元。然而到1993年底，当初的一股（股利再投资）价值已经超过210万美元。正如格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 所说：“短期来看，市场是一台投票机——参加投票的资格只需要钱，不需要智慧或情绪控制——但长期来看，市场是一台称重机。”",[14,58,59],{},"那么我们该如何看待伯克希尔去年股价的超常表现呢？很明显，1993年底伯克希尔的股价相对于内在价值的比率，高于年初时的水平。另一方面，在长期利率只有6%至7%的投资环境下，如果——你们应该明白这是一个巨大的”如果”——伯克希尔的副董事长查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 和我能够达成我们长期以来的目标，即以年均15%的速度增加伯克希尔的每股内在价值，那么伯克希尔目前的市价也并非不合理。对于这个目标，我们从未退缩。但我们必须再次强调——就像我们多年来一直说的——随着资本基数的不断膨胀，15%的目标只会越来越难以达到。",[14,61,62],{},"我们的优势在于，旗下拥有越来越多的大型运营企业，它们的经济特征从优秀到卓越不等，由表现从卓越到卓越的经理人经营。对于这个阵容，各位完全不必操心。",[14,64,65],{},"在母公司层面，查理跟我利用旗下经理人上缴的资金所做的资本配置工作，结果就不那么确定了：要找到能与现有企业和经理人相媲美的新标的并不容易。尽管困难重重，查理跟我还是乐此不疲地寻找。我们也很高兴地向各位报告，1993年我们收获了一项重要的成果。",[67,68,69],"h3",{"id":69},"德克斯特鞋业",[14,71,72,73,77],{},"我们去年的动作是在1991年收购布朗鞋业 (H. H. Brown) 基础上的延续。布朗鞋业是一家经营出色的工作鞋及靴子制造商，实在是一笔成功的投资：虽然我们一开始就对它有很高的期望，但在弗兰克·鲁尼 (Frank Rooney)、吉姆·伊斯勒 (Jim Issler) 以及与他们共事的优秀经理人努力下，实际表现甚至远超我们的预期。正因为对Frank团队的信心，我们在1992年底又收购了洛厄尔鞋业 (Lowell Shoe)。洛厄尔是一家历史悠久的女鞋和护士鞋制造商，业务上还需要一些调整。同样地，结果又超出了我们的预期。因此去年我们毫不犹豫地抓住机会，收购了缅因州德克斯特的德克斯特鞋业 (Dexter Shoe)，一家生产大众价位男女鞋的企业。我可以向各位保证，德克斯特完全",[74,75,76],"em",{},"不","需要改造：这是查理跟我在整个商业生涯中见过的管理最出色的公司之一。",[14,79,80],{},"哈罗德·阿尔方德 (Harold Alfond) 20岁时在一家鞋厂以每小时25美分的工资开始工作，1956年他用1万美元的资本创立了德克斯特。1958年他的侄子彼得·伦德 (Peter Lunder) 加入。从那以后，两人携手打造了一家年产超过750万双鞋的企业，大部分在缅因州生产，其余在波多黎各。大家可能都知道，美国国内制鞋业通常被认为无法与来自低工资国家的进口产品竞争。但似乎没人把这话告诉德克斯特和布朗鞋业那些精明的管理层以及熟练的工人——正是他们联手让这两家公司的美国工厂在面对所有竞争者时都保持了高度的竞争力。",[14,82,83],{},"德克斯特还拥有77家零售店，主要集中在美国东北部。该公司也是高尔夫球鞋的主要制造商，约占美国产量的15%。不过它的看家本领还是为传统零售商生产传统鞋类，而且做得非常出色：去年Nordstrom和JCPenney都授予德克斯特1992年度最佳供应商奖。",[14,85,86],{},"我们1993年的业绩只包含德克斯特自11月7日合并日起的部分。1994年，我们预计伯克希尔鞋类业务的销售额将超过5.5亿美元，税前利润极有可能超过8,500万美元。五年前我们压根没想过会进入制鞋行业。现在光这个产业我们就有7,200名员工，我开车上班时嘴里哼的是”没有一个行业比得上鞋业”。我的战略规划就讲这么多吧。",[14,88,89],{},"在伯克希尔，我们对未来并没有预设会进入哪些行业或产业。事实上，我们认为大型企业追求所谓的宏伟愿景进入新领域，通常对股东来说是毒药。我们更愿意专注于两件事：我们想要拥有的企业应具备怎样的经济特征，以及我们想与之共事的经理人应具备怎样的人品——然后寄希望于运气好能同时找到两者。在德克斯特，我们做到了。",[91,92],"hr",{},[14,94,95],{},"现在让我们暂停一下，来段小广告：虽然Harold和Peter拥有一块商业瑰宝，但我们相信他们（两人对现金都不感兴趣）将德克斯特的股份换成伯克希尔股份的决定是明智的。他们实际上做的事情，是用一家绝佳企业的100%权益，换取了一大群绝佳企业的较小比例权益。这种转换不产生任何税负，而且他们现在持有的证券可以方便地用于慈善或个人赠与，也可以按照自己的意愿随时变现任意金额。如果他们的家族成员愿意，可以各自追求不同的财务规划，而不必面对资产集中在一家私人企业时常见的种种麻烦。",[14,97,98],{},"出于税务和其他原因，私人企业也往往很难在本行业之外进行多元化投资。相比之下，伯克希尔可以轻松做到多元化。因此，通过将所有权转移到伯克希尔，德克斯特的股东解决了一个再投资的难题。此外，虽然Harold和Peter现在持有的是伯克希尔的非控股股份，而非德克斯特的控股股份，但他们知道自己会被当作合伙人对待，我们也会遵循以股东利益为导向的经营原则。如果他们选择保留伯克希尔的股份，从合并日起，他们的投资结果将与我个人的投资结果完全一致。因为我个人绝大部分的身家都终生绑定在伯克希尔的股份上——而且公司既不会给我限制性股票，也不会给我股票期权——所以我个人的盈亏方程式将永远与所有其他股东完全相同。",[14,100,101],{},"此外，Harold和Peter也很清楚，在伯克希尔我们言出必行：在未来几十年内，伯克希尔的控制权和文化都不会改变。最后，也是最最重要的一点，Harold和Peter可以确定他们将继续像合并前一样经营自己的企业——这是他们最热爱的工作。在伯克希尔，我们不会教打击率四成的球手如何挥棒。",[14,103,104],{},"我想这对Harold和Peter有利的道理，大概也适用于其他一些大型私人企业的拥有者。所以，如果你有一家可能合适的企业，请与我联系。我们的收购标准列在年报附录第22页上。",[67,106,107],{"id":107},"报告收益的来源",[14,109,110],{},"下表显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在此表中，商誉摊销和其他重大购买法会计调整不计入各项具体业务，而是汇总单独列示。这样做的目的是让各位看到这些企业在未被我们收购时本应报告的收益。我在过去的报告中解释过，为什么我们认为这种列示方式比GAAP要求的逐项调整方式对投资者和管理者更有用。当然，表中显示的净收益总额与经审计的财务报表中的GAAP数字完全一致。",[112,113,114,133],"table",{},[115,116,117],"thead",{},[118,119,120,123,126,128,131],"tr",{},[121,122],"th",{},[121,124,125],{},"税前收益",[121,127,125],{},[121,129,130],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[121,132,130],{},[134,135,136,152,165,178,195,212,229,246,263,280,297,314,331,348,365,382,399,416,433,445,462,479,494,506],"tbody",{},[118,137,138,142,145,148,150],{},[139,140,141],"td",{},"（千美元）",[139,143,144],{},"1993",[139,146,147],{},"1992",[139,149,144],{},[139,151,147],{},[118,153,154,157,159,161,163],{},[139,155,156],{},"经营收益来源:",[139,158],{},[139,160],{},[139,162],{},[139,164],{},[118,166,167,170,172,174,176],{},[139,168,169],{},"保险集团:",[139,171],{},[139,173],{},[139,175],{},[139,177],{},[118,179,180,183,186,189,192],{},[139,181,182],{},"承保收益",[139,184,185],{},"$ 30,876",[139,187,188],{},"$ (108,961)",[139,190,191],{},"$ 20,156",[139,193,194],{},"$ (71,141)",[118,196,197,200,203,206,209],{},[139,198,199],{},"净投资收益",[139,201,202],{},"375,946",[139,204,205],{},"355,067",[139,207,208],{},"321,321",[139,210,211],{},"305,763",[118,213,214,217,220,223,226],{},[139,215,216],{},"布朗鞋业、洛厄尔及德克斯特",[139,218,219],{},"44,025*",[139,221,222],{},"27,883",[139,224,225],{},"28,829",[139,227,228],{},"17,340",[118,230,231,234,237,240,243],{},[139,232,233],{},"布法罗新闻报",[139,235,236],{},"50,962",[139,238,239],{},"47,863",[139,241,242],{},"29,696",[139,244,245],{},"28,163",[118,247,248,251,254,257,260],{},[139,249,250],{},"商业与消费金融",[139,252,253],{},"22,695",[139,255,256],{},"19,836",[139,258,259],{},"14,161",[139,261,262],{},"12,664",[118,264,265,268,271,274,277],{},[139,266,267],{},"菲希海默制服",[139,269,270],{},"13,442",[139,272,273],{},"13,698",[139,275,276],{},"6,931",[139,278,279],{},"7,267",[118,281,282,285,288,291,294],{},[139,283,284],{},"柯比吸尘器",[139,286,287],{},"39,147",[139,289,290],{},"35,653",[139,292,293],{},"25,056",[139,295,296],{},"22,795",[118,298,299,302,305,308,311],{},[139,300,301],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[139,303,304],{},"21,540",[139,306,307],{},"17,110",[139,309,310],{},"10,398",[139,312,313],{},"8,072",[118,315,316,319,322,325,328],{},[139,317,318],{},"斯科特费泽制造集团",[139,320,321],{},"38,196",[139,323,324],{},"31,954",[139,326,327],{},"23,809",[139,329,330],{},"19,883",[118,332,333,336,339,342,345],{},[139,334,335],{},"喜诗糖果",[139,337,338],{},"41,150",[139,340,341],{},"42,357",[139,343,344],{},"24,367",[139,346,347],{},"25,501",[118,349,350,353,356,359,362],{},[139,351,352],{},"世界图书百科全书",[139,354,355],{},"19,915",[139,357,358],{},"29,044",[139,360,361],{},"13,537",[139,363,364],{},"19,503",[118,366,367,370,373,376,379],{},[139,368,369],{},"购买法会计调整及商誉摊销",[139,371,372],{},"(17,033)",[139,374,375],{},"(12,087)",[139,377,378],{},"(13,996)",[139,380,381],{},"(13,070)",[118,383,384,387,390,393,396],{},[139,385,386],{},"利息费用**",[139,388,389],{},"(56,545)",[139,391,392],{},"(98,643)",[139,394,395],{},"(35,614)",[139,397,398],{},"(62,899)",[118,400,401,404,407,410,413],{},[139,402,403],{},"股东指定捐赠",[139,405,406],{},"(9,448)",[139,408,409],{},"(7,634)",[139,411,412],{},"(5,994)",[139,414,415],{},"(4,913)",[118,417,418,421,424,427,430],{},[139,419,420],{},"其他",[139,422,423],{},"28,428",[139,425,426],{},"67,540",[139,428,429],{},"15,094",[139,431,432],{},"32,798",[118,434,435,437,439,441,443],{},[139,436],{},[139,438],{},[139,440],{},[139,442],{},[139,444],{},[118,446,447,450,453,456,459],{},[139,448,449],{},"经营收益",[139,451,452],{},"643,296",[139,454,455],{},"460,680",[139,457,458],{},"477,751",[139,460,461],{},"347,726",[118,463,464,467,470,473,476],{},[139,465,466],{},"出售证券收益",[139,468,469],{},"546,422",[139,471,472],{},"89,937",[139,474,475],{},"356,702",[139,477,478],{},"59,559",[118,480,481,484,487,489,492],{},[139,482,483],{},"新会计准则导致的应计税款",[139,485,486],{},"—",[139,488,486],{},[139,490,491],{},"(146,332)",[139,493,486],{},[118,495,496,498,500,502,504],{},[139,497],{},[139,499],{},[139,501],{},[139,503],{},[139,505],{},[118,507,508,511,514,517,520],{},[139,509,510],{},"所有实体收益合计",[139,512,513],{},"$ 1,189,718",[139,515,516],{},"$ 550,617",[139,518,519],{},"$ 688,121",[139,521,522],{},"$ 407,285",[14,524,525,526],{},"*",[74,527,528],{},"德克斯特的收益仅包含自1993年11月7日收购日之后的部分。",[14,530,531,532],{},"**",[74,533,534],{},"不含商业与消费金融业务的利息费用。1992年的数字还包括2,250万美元提前赎回债券的溢价。",[14,536,537],{},"大量关于这些企业的详细信息见年报第38至49页，在那里各位还可以看到按GAAP编制的分部收益。此外，在第52至59页，我们按非GAAP口径将伯克希尔的财务数据重新分为四个板块，这种列示方式与查理跟我思考公司的方式一致。我们的目的是向各位提供那些如果我们角色互换，我们也希望你们提供给我们的财务信息。",[67,539,540],{"id":540},"透视收益",[14,542,543],{},"我们之前讨论过透视收益 (look-through earnings)，我们相信它比GAAP数字更能准确地反映伯克希尔的真实盈利。按我们的计算方式，透视收益由以下部分组成：(1) 前面报告的经营收益，加上 (2) 主要被投资公司的留存经营收益——按GAAP这部分不反映在我们的利润中，减去 (3) 如果这些被投资公司的留存收益分配给我们时，伯克希尔需要缴纳的估计税款。这里所说的”经营收益”不包括资本利得、特殊会计调整和重大重组费用。",[14,545,546],{},"长期来看，如果我们的内在价值要以每年15%的速度增长，透视收益也必须以同样的速度增长。去年我解释过，要达到15%的目标，到2000年我们的透视收益需要达到约18亿美元。由于1993年我们又发行了一些新股，现在这个数字提高到了约18.5亿美元。",[14,548,549],{},"这是一个高难度的目标，不过也希望各位盯紧我们。过去我们批评过某些管理层的做法——先射箭再画靶心，不管箭射得有多歪。我们宁愿冒着出丑的风险，也要先画好靶心再射箭。",[14,551,552],{},"如果我们想要命中靶心，就需要市场提供以合理价格买入企业和证券的机会。目前的市场情况并不理想，但市场随时可能以出人意料的方式、在出人意料的时间发生变化。在此期间，我们会尽量抵制因手中现金太多就勉强出手做一些不怎么样的事的诱惑。方向不对，跑得再快也白搭。",[14,554,555],{},"下表展示了我们如何计算透视收益，不过我要提醒各位，这些数字必然相当粗略。（被投资公司支付给我们的股利已包含在第8页列示的经营收益中，主要在”保险集团：净投资收益”项下。）",[112,557,558,575],{},[115,559,560],{},[118,561,562,565,568,570,573],{},[121,563,564],{},"伯克希尔主要被投资公司",[121,566,567],{},"伯克希尔年末近似持股比例",[121,569,567],{},[121,571,572],{},"伯克希尔应占未分配经营收益",[121,574,572],{},[134,576,577,590,607,624,641,658,675,691,708,725,742,754,769,784,799],{},[118,578,579,582,584,586,588],{},[139,580,581],{},"（百万美元）",[139,583,144],{},[139,585,147],{},[139,587,144],{},[139,589,147],{},[118,591,592,595,598,601,604],{},[139,593,594],{},"大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC)",[139,596,597],{},"13.0%",[139,599,600],{},"18.2%",[139,602,603],{},"$ 83(2)",[139,605,606],{},"$ 70",[118,608,609,612,615,618,621],{},[139,610,611],{},"可口可乐 (The Coca-Cola Company)",[139,613,614],{},"7.2%",[139,616,617],{},"7.1%",[139,619,620],{},"94",[139,622,623],{},"82",[118,625,626,629,632,635,638],{},[139,627,628],{},"房地美 (Federal Home Loan Mortgage)",[139,630,631],{},"6.8%(1)",[139,633,634],{},"8.2%(1)",[139,636,637],{},"41(2)",[139,639,640],{},"29(2)",[118,642,643,646,649,652,655],{},[139,644,645],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO)",[139,647,648],{},"48.4%",[139,650,651],{},"48.1%",[139,653,654],{},"76(3)",[139,656,657],{},"34(3)",[118,659,660,663,666,669,672],{},[139,661,662],{},"通用动力 (General Dynamics)",[139,664,665],{},"13.9%",[139,667,668],{},"14.1%",[139,670,671],{},"25",[139,673,674],{},"11(2)",[118,676,677,680,683,685,688],{},[139,678,679],{},"吉列 (The Gillette Company)",[139,681,682],{},"10.9%",[139,684,682],{},[139,686,687],{},"44",[139,689,690],{},"38",[118,692,693,696,699,702,705],{},[139,694,695],{},"健力士 (Guinness PLC)",[139,697,698],{},"1.9%",[139,700,701],{},"2.0%",[139,703,704],{},"8",[139,706,707],{},"7",[118,709,710,713,716,719,722],{},[139,711,712],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company)",[139,714,715],{},"14.8%",[139,717,718],{},"14.6%",[139,720,721],{},"15",[139,723,724],{},"11",[118,726,727,730,733,736,739],{},[139,728,729],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo & Company)",[139,731,732],{},"12.2%",[139,734,735],{},"11.5%",[139,737,738],{},"53(2)",[139,740,741],{},"16(2)",[118,743,744,746,748,750,752],{},[139,745],{},[139,747],{},[139,749],{},[139,751],{},[139,753],{},[118,755,756,759,761,763,766],{},[139,757,758],{},"伯克希尔主要被投资公司未分配收益合计",[139,760],{},[139,762],{},[139,764,765],{},"$ 439",[139,767,768],{},"$ 298",[118,770,771,774,776,778,781],{},[139,772,773],{},"对未分配收益的假设税款(4)",[139,775],{},[139,777],{},[139,779,780],{},"(61)",[139,782,783],{},"(42)",[118,785,786,789,791,793,796],{},[139,787,788],{},"伯克希尔报告的经营收益",[139,790],{},[139,792],{},[139,794,795],{},"478",[139,797,798],{},"348",[118,800,801,804,806,808,811],{},[139,802,803],{},"伯克希尔透视收益合计",[139,805],{},[139,807],{},[139,809,810],{},"$ 856",[139,812,813],{},"$ 604",[30,815,816,819,822,825],{},[33,817,818],{},"不包括韦斯科 (Wesco) 少数股东权益对应的股份",[33,820,821],{},"按年度平均持股比例计算",[33,823,824],{},"不包括已实现资本利得，该部分金额大且经常性发生",[33,826,827],{},"所用税率为14%，即伯克希尔收取股利时适用的税率",[14,829,830],{},"我曾告诉过各位，我们预期被投资公司的未分配收益（扣除假设税款后）至少能为伯克希尔创造出等额的内在价值增长。到目前为止，实际结果远远超出了这个预期。举例来说，1986年我们以每股172.50美元的价格买入300万股大都会\u002FABC，去年底我们以每股630美元的价格卖出了其中三分之一。在缴纳35%的资本利得税后，我们实现了2.97亿美元的税后利润。相比之下，在我们持有这些股份的八年间，大都会公司对应这些股份的留存收益——按我们透视收益方法中较低的14%假设税率计算——只有1.52亿美元。换句话说，我们实际缴纳的税远高于透视收益所假设的，但实现的利润仍然远超这些股份对应的未分配收益。",[14,832,833],{},"我们预计这样的愉快结果在未来仍会持续发生，因此我们相信透视收益是对伯克希尔真实经济收益的一种保守表述。",[67,835,836],{"id":836},"税项",[14,838,839],{},"正如刚才提到的出售大都会股份一事所表明的，伯克希尔是联邦所得税的纳税大户。总计而言，1993年我们将缴纳联邦所得税3.9亿美元，其中约2亿美元来自经营收益，约1.9亿美元来自已实现资本利得。此外，我们的被投资公司1993年自行缴纳的联邦和外国所得税合计超过4亿美元，这个数字在我们的财务报表上看不到，但却是实实在在存在的。直接和间接加起来，伯克希尔1993年缴纳的联邦所得税约占去年全美企业缴税总额的0.5%。",[14,841,842],{},"就我们自己的股份而言，查理跟我对这些税负没有半点怨言。我们知道自己在一个市场经济中工作，所得到的回报远比许多对社会贡献同等甚至更大的人丰厚得多。通过税收来部分纠正这种不公平，既是应该的，也是实际在做的。即便如此，我们仍然受到了极其优厚的待遇。",[14,844,845],{},"如果伯克希尔以合伙制或S型公司的形式运营——这两种结构在商业活动中很常见——伯克希尔及其股东合在一起需要缴纳的税就会少得多。出于各种原因，这对伯克希尔来说并不可行。不过，我们的长期投资策略在一定程度上减轻了公司形式所带来的税负——虽然远未消除。即使我们经营的是一家免税机构，查理跟我还是会奉行买入并持有的策略。我们认为这是最明智的投资方式，也最符合我们的性格。第三个支持这种策略的理由是：只有在收益实现时才需要纳税。",[14,847,848],{},"通过我个人最喜欢的漫画《小阿布纳》(Li’l Abner)，我年轻时有机会体会到延迟纳税的好处，虽然当时我没把这个教训学到手。为了让读者觉得自己很聪明，小阿布纳在连环画里的Dogpatch小镇快快乐乐却糊里糊涂地过日子。有一天他迷上了纽约的尤物阿帕希奥纳塔·范·克莱马克斯 (Appassionatta Van Climax)，但因为他身上只有一块银元而她只对百万富翁感兴趣，所以阿布纳觉得娶她简直毫无希望。沮丧的阿布纳跑去找Dogpatch无所不知的老摩西 (Old Man Mose) 请教。这位圣人说：把你的钱翻20番，阿帕希奥纳塔就是你的了（1, 2, 4, 8 . . . . 1,048,576）。",[14,850,851],{},"我对这段漫画最后的记忆是：阿布纳走进一家路边旅馆，把仅有的一块钱投进老虎机，居然中了头奖，硬币哗啦啦掉了一地。阿布纳一丝不苟地遵照摩西老人的教诲，只捡起了两块钱，就出发去寻找下一次翻番的机会。看到这里，我就抛弃了阿布纳，转而去研读本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 的著作。",[14,853,854],{},"显然摩西算不上什么好导师：他不但没预料到阿布纳会如此死板地执行指令，还忘了考虑税的问题。假设阿布纳也必须像今天的伯克希尔一样缴纳35%的联邦所得税，即使他每年都能成功翻一番，20年后他也只能积攒到22,370美元。事实上，如果他继续保持每年翻番但每次都缴纳35%的税，他还需要再多等七年半才能凑够100万美元来赢得阿帕希奥纳塔的芳心。",[14,856,857],{},"但要是阿布纳把他的一美元只做一笔投资，持有不动直到同样翻了27.5番呢？那样的话，他将获得大约2亿美元的税前利润，最后一年缴纳7,000万美元的税后，仍然有约1.3亿美元的税后利润。到那时，阿帕希奥纳塔恐怕会爬着来Dogpatch见他了。当然，27.5年过去了，坐拥1.3亿美元的富翁会怎么看容颜老去的阿帕希奥纳塔，那就是另一回事了。",[14,859,860],{},"这个小故事告诉我们：对于需要纳税的投资人来说，在同样的回报率下，一笔内部持续复利增长的投资（最后才纳税），其最终回报将远远超过一系列以相同回报率滚动的投资（每次都纳税）。不过我怀疑，很多伯克希尔的股东早就明白这个道理了。",[67,862,863],{"id":863},"保险业务",[14,865,866],{},"通常到了报告的这个部分，我们会提供一张过去十年保险行业年度综合比率 (combined ratio) 的表格。综合比率衡量的是保险总成本（已发生赔款加上费用）与保费收入的比值。多年来，这个比率一直高于100，意味着行业处于承保亏损状态。也就是说，保险业每年从保户那里收到的保费，不足以支付营运费用和当年发生的赔款。",[14,868,869],{},"有一个令人欣慰的事实可以抵消这个灰暗的等式：保险公司在真正支付理赔款之前，有一段时间可以使用保户的资金。这是因为大多数保单要求预先缴纳保费，更重要的是，理赔案件的解决往往需要时间。事实上，对于某些险种，比如产品责任险或职业渎职险，从损失事件发生到实际赔付可能要经过好几年。",[14,871,872],{},"简单地说，保户预缴的保费加上已发生但尚未支付的理赔准备金，统称为”浮存金“(float)。过去，凭借投资浮存金获得的收益，整个保险行业即使综合比率高达107至111，仍能维持收支平衡。",[14,874,875],{},"然而随着利率下降，浮存金的价值已经大幅缩水。因此，我们过去提供的数据已经不再适合用来逐年比较行业盈利能力。一家综合比率与1980年代相同的保险公司，今天的生意远不如当年那么好了。",[14,877,878,879,882],{},"只有同时分析承保结果和浮存金在当前无风险利率下可获得的收益，才能正确评估一家财产意外险公司所承保业务的真正经济价值。当然，一家保险公司利用浮存金和股东资金所",[74,880,881],{},"实际","取得的投资业绩也至关重要，投资者在评估管理层表现时应该仔细审视。但那应该与我们这里讨论的分开来看。浮存金的价值——实际上就是资金从保险业务转入投资业务时的转移价格——应该简单地以长期无风险利率来衡量。",[14,884,885],{},"下面我们列出评估伯克希尔保险业务所需的关键数字。我们计算浮存金的方式——相对于保费规模，我们的浮存金大得不成比例——是将损失准备金、损失调整费用准备金和未赚保费加总，然后减去代理人余额、预付获取成本和分入再保险的递延费用。浮存金的成本取决于承保盈亏。在承保盈利的年份——包括1993年——我们浮存金的成本为负数，也就是说我们把承保利润加上浮存金的投资收益来得出保险业务的收益。",[112,887,888,907],{},[115,889,890],{},[118,891,892,895,898,901,904],{},[121,893,894],{},"年度",[121,896,897],{},"承保损失(1)（百万美元）",[121,899,900],{},"平均浮存金(2)（百万美元）",[121,902,903],{},"浮存金近似成本（1÷2）",[121,905,906],{},"年末长期政府债券收益率",[134,908,909,926,941,956,973,988,1003,1018,1035,1052,1067,1082,1097,1112,1127,1142,1159,1176,1193,1210,1227,1244,1261,1277,1294,1311,1327],{},[118,910,911,914,917,920,923],{},[139,912,913],{},"1967",[139,915,916],{},"盈利",[139,918,919],{},"$ 17.3",[139,921,922],{},"低于零",[139,924,925],{},"5.50%",[118,927,928,931,933,936,938],{},[139,929,930],{},"1968",[139,932,916],{},[139,934,935],{},"19.9",[139,937,922],{},[139,939,940],{},"5.90%",[118,942,943,946,948,951,953],{},[139,944,945],{},"1969",[139,947,916],{},[139,949,950],{},"23.4",[139,952,922],{},[139,954,955],{},"6.79%",[118,957,958,961,964,967,970],{},[139,959,960],{},"1970",[139,962,963],{},"$ 0.37",[139,965,966],{},"32.4",[139,968,969],{},"1.14%",[139,971,972],{},"6.25%",[118,974,975,978,980,983,985],{},[139,976,977],{},"1971",[139,979,916],{},[139,981,982],{},"52.5",[139,984,922],{},[139,986,987],{},"5.81%",[118,989,990,993,995,998,1000],{},[139,991,992],{},"1972",[139,994,916],{},[139,996,997],{},"69.5",[139,999,922],{},[139,1001,1002],{},"5.82%",[118,1004,1005,1008,1010,1013,1015],{},[139,1006,1007],{},"1973",[139,1009,916],{},[139,1011,1012],{},"73.3",[139,1014,922],{},[139,1016,1017],{},"7.27%",[118,1019,1020,1023,1026,1029,1032],{},[139,1021,1022],{},"1974",[139,1024,1025],{},"7.36",[139,1027,1028],{},"79.1",[139,1030,1031],{},"9.30%",[139,1033,1034],{},"8.13%",[118,1036,1037,1040,1043,1046,1049],{},[139,1038,1039],{},"1975",[139,1041,1042],{},"11.35",[139,1044,1045],{},"87.6",[139,1047,1048],{},"12.96%",[139,1050,1051],{},"8.03%",[118,1053,1054,1057,1059,1062,1064],{},[139,1055,1056],{},"1976",[139,1058,916],{},[139,1060,1061],{},"102.6",[139,1063,922],{},[139,1065,1066],{},"7.30%",[118,1068,1069,1072,1074,1077,1079],{},[139,1070,1071],{},"1977",[139,1073,916],{},[139,1075,1076],{},"139.0",[139,1078,922],{},[139,1080,1081],{},"7.97%",[118,1083,1084,1087,1089,1092,1094],{},[139,1085,1086],{},"1978",[139,1088,916],{},[139,1090,1091],{},"190.4",[139,1093,922],{},[139,1095,1096],{},"8.93%",[118,1098,1099,1102,1104,1107,1109],{},[139,1100,1101],{},"1979",[139,1103,916],{},[139,1105,1106],{},"227.3",[139,1108,922],{},[139,1110,1111],{},"10.08%",[118,1113,1114,1117,1119,1122,1124],{},[139,1115,1116],{},"1980",[139,1118,916],{},[139,1120,1121],{},"237.0",[139,1123,922],{},[139,1125,1126],{},"11.94%",[118,1128,1129,1132,1134,1137,1139],{},[139,1130,1131],{},"1981",[139,1133,916],{},[139,1135,1136],{},"228.4",[139,1138,922],{},[139,1140,1141],{},"13.61%",[118,1143,1144,1147,1150,1153,1156],{},[139,1145,1146],{},"1982",[139,1148,1149],{},"21.56",[139,1151,1152],{},"220.6",[139,1154,1155],{},"9.77%",[139,1157,1158],{},"10.64%",[118,1160,1161,1164,1167,1170,1173],{},[139,1162,1163],{},"1983",[139,1165,1166],{},"33.87",[139,1168,1169],{},"231.3",[139,1171,1172],{},"14.64%",[139,1174,1175],{},"11.84%",[118,1177,1178,1181,1184,1187,1190],{},[139,1179,1180],{},"1984",[139,1182,1183],{},"48.06",[139,1185,1186],{},"253.2",[139,1188,1189],{},"18.98%",[139,1191,1192],{},"11.58%",[118,1194,1195,1198,1201,1204,1207],{},[139,1196,1197],{},"1985",[139,1199,1200],{},"44.23",[139,1202,1203],{},"390.2",[139,1205,1206],{},"11.34%",[139,1208,1209],{},"9.34%",[118,1211,1212,1215,1218,1221,1224],{},[139,1213,1214],{},"1986",[139,1216,1217],{},"55.84",[139,1219,1220],{},"797.5",[139,1222,1223],{},"7.00%",[139,1225,1226],{},"7.60%",[118,1228,1229,1232,1235,1238,1241],{},[139,1230,1231],{},"1987",[139,1233,1234],{},"55.43",[139,1236,1237],{},"1,266.7",[139,1239,1240],{},"4.38%",[139,1242,1243],{},"8.95%",[118,1245,1246,1249,1252,1255,1258],{},[139,1247,1248],{},"1988",[139,1250,1251],{},"11.08",[139,1253,1254],{},"1,497.7",[139,1256,1257],{},"0.74%",[139,1259,1260],{},"9.00%",[118,1262,1263,1266,1269,1272,1275],{},[139,1264,1265],{},"1989",[139,1267,1268],{},"24.40",[139,1270,1271],{},"1,541.3",[139,1273,1274],{},"1.58%",[139,1276,1081],{},[118,1278,1279,1282,1285,1288,1291],{},[139,1280,1281],{},"1990",[139,1283,1284],{},"26.65",[139,1286,1287],{},"1,637.3",[139,1289,1290],{},"1.63%",[139,1292,1293],{},"8.24%",[118,1295,1296,1299,1302,1305,1308],{},[139,1297,1298],{},"1991",[139,1300,1301],{},"119.59",[139,1303,1304],{},"1,895.0",[139,1306,1307],{},"6.31%",[139,1309,1310],{},"7.40%",[118,1312,1313,1315,1318,1321,1324],{},[139,1314,147],{},[139,1316,1317],{},"108.96",[139,1319,1320],{},"2,290.4",[139,1322,1323],{},"4.76%",[139,1325,1326],{},"7.39%",[118,1328,1329,1331,1333,1336,1338],{},[139,1330,144],{},[139,1332,916],{},[139,1334,1335],{},"2,624.7",[139,1337,922],{},[139,1339,1340],{},"6.35%",[14,1342,1343],{},"大家可以看到，去年我们的保险业务等于让我们免费使用了26亿美元的浮存金；不仅如此，我们还因此赚了3,100万美元的承保利润。这听起来很棒——确实很棒——但远没有听起来那么好。",[14,1345,1346],{},"我们之所以要保持冷静，是因为我们承保了大量的”巨灾再保险”(super-cat) 保单（其他保险公司和再保险公司买来用以分担超大型灾难损失的保单），而且去年这类业务碰巧没有发生重大赔付。也就是说，1993年真正严重的中西部洪水并没有触发巨灾再保险的赔付，原因是极少有私营保险公司出售洪水险。",[14,1348,1349,1350,1353],{},"但如果因为单一年度的好成绩就得出结论说巨灾再保险是一门好生意，甚至是令人满意的生意，那就大错特错了。一个简单的例子就能说明问题：假设某种事件每百年平均发生25次。如果你每年以一赔五的赔率赌它",[74,1351,1352],{},"当年","不会发生，那你赢的年份会远多于输的年份。事实上，你可能连赢六年、七年甚至更久。但最终你一定会破产。",[14,1355,1356],{},"在伯克希尔，我们自然相信我们收取了合理的保费，赔率大约是一赔三点五。但我们——或任何人——都没有办法精确计算巨灾再保险的真实赔率。事实上，可能要等几十年后，我们才知道当初的承保判断是否正确。",[14,1358,1359],{},"我们确实知道的是，当损失降临时，铁定是件天大的事。有些年份，伯克希尔在巨灾再保险上的损失可能是我们1993年从该业务赚到的利润的三到四倍。1992年安德鲁飓风 (Hurricane Andrew) 来袭时，我们总共赔了约1.25亿美元。由于此后我们大幅扩大了巨灾再保险业务，同样规模的飓风今天可能让我们损失6亿美元。",[14,1361,1362],{},"到目前为止，1994年我们还算幸运。在我写这封信时，我们估计洛杉矶大地震给我们造成的损失尚在正常范围之内。但如果那次地震不是6.8级而是7.5级，那故事就完全不一样了。",[14,1364,1365],{},"伯克希尔天生就适合承保巨灾再保险。我们拥有这个行业最优秀的经理人——阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain)。此外，承保这类保单需要巨额资本，而我们的净资产是主要竞争对手的10到20倍。在大多数保险业务中，雄厚的资源并不那么关键：保险公司可以分散所承保的风险，必要时还可以通过分保来降低投资组合的集中度。但在巨灾再保险领域就没法这样做了。所以竞争对手只能被迫提供远低于我们的承保限额。要是他们胆子大一些，一场超级灾难——或多场较小灾难的叠加——就可能把他们消灭。",[14,1367,1368],{},"有一件事可以彰显我们超强的实力和卓越的声誉：全世界最大的四家再保险公司都在伯克希尔购买了巨额的巨灾再保险。这些巨头比任何人都清楚，检验一家再保险公司的标准是它在困难时刻有没有能力和意愿支付理赔，而不是在风平浪静时愿不愿意接收保费。",[14,1370,1371],{},"有一点需要提醒：最近再保险市场的供给能力大幅增加。再保险公司新募集了近50亿美元的股本，几乎全部来自新成立的公司。这些新入场者自然急于承接业务，好给当初他们吸引资金时所作的预测找到依据。这些新增的竞争不会影响我们1994年的运营——我们的保单早已满额了，主要是1993年签下的。但我们已经看到保费价格恶化的迹象。如果这种趋势持续下去，我们将甘于大幅缩减业务量，但随时准备好为那些大型的、老练的客户服务——他们需要的是承保能力巨大且绝对有能力支付理赔的巨灾再保险公司。",[14,1373,1374],{},"在其他保险业务方面，罗德·埃尔德雷德 (Rod Eldred) 领导的住宅保险业务、布拉德·金斯特勒 (Brad Kinstler) 领导的工伤赔偿保险业务、基泽 (Kizer) 家族经营的信用卡保险业务，以及唐·伍斯特 (Don Wurster) 领导的国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 传统汽车和一般责任险业务，都取得了出色的业绩。总的来说，这四个业务部门既产生了可观的承保利润，又贡献了大量的浮存金。",[14,1376,1377],{},"总而言之，我们拥有一流的保险业务。虽然其经营业绩的波动性很大，但这项业务的内在价值远远超过其账面价值——事实上，差距之大在伯克希尔所有业务中名列前茅。",[67,1379,1380],{"id":1380},"股票投资",[14,1382,1383],{},"下面列出的是我们市值超过2.5亿美元的普通股持仓。其中一小部分属于伯克希尔未100%持有的子公司。",[112,1385,1386,1402],{},[115,1387,1388],{},[118,1389,1390,1393,1396,1399],{},[121,1391,1392],{},"股份数量",[121,1394,1395],{},"公司名称",[121,1397,1398],{},"成本（1993年12月31日，千美元）",[121,1400,1401],{},"市值（1993年12月31日，千美元）",[134,1403,1404,1417,1430,1444,1457,1470,1483,1496,1509],{},[118,1405,1406,1409,1411,1414],{},[139,1407,1408],{},"2,000,000",[139,1410,594],{},[139,1412,1413],{},"$ 345,000",[139,1415,1416],{},"$ 1,239,000",[118,1418,1419,1422,1424,1427],{},[139,1420,1421],{},"93,400,000",[139,1423,611],{},[139,1425,1426],{},"1,023,920",[139,1428,1429],{},"4,167,975",[118,1431,1432,1435,1438,1441],{},[139,1433,1434],{},"13,654,600",[139,1436,1437],{},"房地美 (Federal Home Loan Mortgage “Freddie Mac”)",[139,1439,1440],{},"307,505",[139,1442,1443],{},"681,023",[118,1445,1446,1449,1451,1454],{},[139,1447,1448],{},"34,250,000",[139,1450,645],{},[139,1452,1453],{},"45,713",[139,1455,1456],{},"1,759,594",[118,1458,1459,1462,1464,1467],{},[139,1460,1461],{},"4,350,000",[139,1463,662],{},[139,1465,1466],{},"94,938",[139,1468,1469],{},"401,287",[118,1471,1472,1475,1477,1480],{},[139,1473,1474],{},"24,000,000",[139,1476,679],{},[139,1478,1479],{},"600,000",[139,1481,1482],{},"1,431,000",[118,1484,1485,1488,1490,1493],{},[139,1486,1487],{},"38,335,000",[139,1489,695],{},[139,1491,1492],{},"333,019",[139,1494,1495],{},"270,822",[118,1497,1498,1501,1503,1506],{},[139,1499,1500],{},"1,727,765",[139,1502,712],{},[139,1504,1505],{},"9,731",[139,1507,1508],{},"440,148",[118,1510,1511,1514,1516,1519],{},[139,1512,1513],{},"6,791,218",[139,1515,729],{},[139,1517,1518],{},"423,680",[139,1520,1521],{},"878,614",[14,1523,1524],{},"看到今年的持仓清单与去年如此相似，各位可能会觉得本公司的管理层已经昏庸到无可救药。但我们始终认为，卖掉一家你既看得懂又持续优秀的公司，通常是愚蠢的。这样的好公司实在太难找到替代品了。",[14,1526,1527],{},"有趣的是，企业经理人在聚焦自己运营的业务时，从来不会搞错这一点：一家拥有长期经济特征极佳子公司的母公司，不管出什么价，都不太可能把这颗明珠卖掉。“我为什么要变卖我皇冠上的珠宝？”CEO一定会这样说。然而同一位CEO，一旦管理起自己的个人投资组合，却会漫不经心地——甚至冲动地——在一家公司和另一家公司之间跳来跳去，凭据不过是经纪人那几句肤浅的说辞。其中最烂的一句大概就是：“赚钱不会让你破产。”各位能想象一位CEO用这套说辞劝董事会卖掉最明星的子公司吗？在我们看来，适用于企业经营的道理同样适用于股票投资：投资人持有一家杰出企业的一小部分股份时，应该表现出与拥有整家企业同样的坚定。",[14,1529,1530,1531,1534],{},"前面我提到过在1919年投资40美元买可口可乐会有什么样的结果。1938年，在可乐问世超过50年并早已成为美国标志性产品之后，《财富》杂志 (",[74,1532,1533],{},"Fortune",") 对这家公司做了一篇精彩的报道。文章第二段，作者写道：“每年都有好几次，一些重量级的严肃投资者怀着深深的敬意，仔细审视可口可乐的业绩记录，但最终都遗憾地得出结论——自己来得太晚了。饱和与竞争的幽灵已浮现在眼前。”",[14,1536,1537],{},"没错，1938年有竞争，1993年同样有竞争。但值得注意的是，1938年可口可乐售出了2.07亿箱软饮料（将当时的加仑数换算成如今192盎司的标准箱），而到1993年它卖出了约107亿箱，对于一家在1938年就已经是行业绝对领导者的公司来说，实际销售量又增长了50倍。而且对于在1938年入场的投资者来说，派对远未结束：虽然1919年投入可口可乐的40美元（将股利再投资）到1938年底已经变成3,277美元，但如果在1938年再拿40美元投入可口可乐的股票，到1993年底同样可以增长到25,000美元。",[14,1539,1540],{},"我忍不住再引用一段1938年《财富》杂志那篇报道中的话：“很难找到另一家与可口可乐规模相当、又像可口可乐那样销售一种不变产品的公司，能拿出一份哪怕接近可口可乐的十年业绩记录。”在此后的55年间，可口可乐的产品线虽然有所拓宽，但令人赞叹的是，这段描述至今依然贴切。",[14,1542,1543],{},"查理跟我很久以前就认识到，在一个人的投资生涯中，要做出上百个聪明的决策实在太难了。随着伯克希尔的资本规模急剧膨胀，能够显著影响我们投资业绩的投资标的越来越少，这一判断就更加确凿了。因此，我们采取了一种策略，只需要在很少的时候表现聪明就好——而且也不必聪明到什么程度。事实上，我们现在只要求每年出一个好主意就够了。（查理说该轮到我了。）",[14,1545,1546,1547,1550],{},"我们采取的策略与标准的分散化教条背道而驰。因此很多专家会说我们的策略一定比传统投资者的风险更高。我们不同意。我们相信，集中持股的策略完全可以",[74,1548,1549],{},"降低","风险，前提是它能促使投资者在买入之前更加深入地思考一项业务，并对其经济特征有更高的舒适度。在表达这个观点时，我们对风险的定义与字典一样，就是”遭受损失或伤害的可能性”。",[14,1552,1553],{},"然而学术界喜欢用另一种方式定义投资”风险”，宣称它是一只股票或一个股票组合的相对波动性——即与大盘相比的波动幅度。利用数据库和统计技巧，这些学者能精确地计算出一只股票的”贝塔值”(beta)——它过去的相对波动率——然后围绕这个计算构建出一套晦涩的投资和资本配置理论。然而在他们急于用单一统计指标来衡量风险的时候，他们忘记了一个基本原则：宁要模糊的正确，不要精确的错误。",[14,1555,1556],{},"对于企业的所有者来说——我们认为股东就应该这样看待自己——学术界对风险的定义完全不着边际，甚至荒谬到了极点。举个例子：按照贝塔理论，一只相对于大盘大幅下跌的股票——就像1973年我们买入华盛顿邮报 (Washington Post) 时那样——在低价位时反而比在高价位时”风险更高”。如果有人以极低的价格把整家公司卖给你，难道你也会觉得这笔交易风险更高吗？",[14,1558,1559,1560,1563,1564,1567],{},"事实上，真正的投资者",[74,1561,1562],{},"欢迎","波动还来不及呢。本杰明·格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》(",[74,1565,1566],{},"The Intelligent Investor",") 第八章做过解释。他在书中介绍了”市场先生” (Mr. Market)——一个殷勤的家伙，每天都会出现在你面前，随时愿意买你的股票或卖给你，任君选择。这位老兄越是喜怒无常，投资者的机会就越多。道理很简单：市场剧烈波动意味着好公司时不时会出现不合理的低价。很难想象，为什么这种低价的出现会被视为增加了投资者的风险——只要他完全可以无视市场或者利用市场的愚蠢。",[14,1569,1570],{},"在评估风险时，一个贝塔理论的信徒根本不屑于了解一家公司到底生产什么、竞争对手在干什么、或者用了多少杠杆。他甚至可能不想知道公司叫什么名字。他珍视的只是这只股票的价格历史。相反，我们很乐意对股价历史一无所知，而是去收集一切有助于了解这家公司业务的信息。买入一只股票之后，即使市场关门一两年我们也不会心烦意乱。我们不需要每天看到喜诗糖果 (See’s Candies) 或布朗鞋业100%股权的报价来确认自己的权益是否存在。那么，我们又何必需要每天看到7%的可口可乐持股的报价呢？",[14,1572,1573],{},"在我们看来，投资者应该评估的真正风险是：在预期持有期内，一项投资的税后总回报（包括卖出所得）能否至少保住其原始购买力，并获得合理的收益率。虽然这种风险无法像工程计算那样精确量化，但在某些情况下可以做出足够有用的判断。影响这种评估的主要因素有以下几点：",[30,1575,1576,1579,1582,1585,1588],{},[33,1577,1578],{},"这家企业长期经济特征的可评估确定性；",[33,1580,1581],{},"管理层能力的可评估确定性，包括充分发挥企业潜力的能力和明智运用现金流的能力；",[33,1583,1584],{},"管理层将企业利润回馈股东而非中饱私囊的可信赖程度；",[33,1586,1587],{},"买入这家企业的价格；",[33,1589,1590],{},"税负和通货膨胀水平——它们决定了投资者的实际购买力回报比名义回报缩水多少。",[14,1592,1593],{},"对于许多分析师来说，这些因素可能模糊得令人受不了，因为它们无法从任何数据库中提取出来。但精确量化这些因素的困难，既不代表它们不重要，也不意味着无法克服。就好比斯图尔特 (Stewart) 大法官发现自己没法给”淫秽”下一个精确的定义，但仍然坚称：“我一看到就知道。”同样地，投资者也可以——以一种不太精确但足够有用的方式——“看到”某些投资中潜藏的风险，而无需借助复杂的公式或价格历史。",[14,1595,1596,1597,1600],{},"要得出以下结论真有那么难吗：从长期来看，可口可乐和吉列所面临的经营风险，远远低于",[74,1598,1599],{},"任何","一家电脑公司或零售商？在全球范围内，可口可乐占所有软饮料销售量的约44%，吉列在刀片市场的份额超过60%（以销售额计）。除了箭牌 (Wrigley) 称霸口香糖市场之外，我不知道还有哪家大型企业能像它们一样长期享有如此强大的全球统治力。",[14,1602,1603],{},"更重要的是，可口可乐和吉列近年来还在持续提高全球市场份额。品牌的力量、产品的特质和分销体系的优势赋予了它们巨大的竞争优势，犹如一道宽阔的护城河保卫着它们的经济城堡。相比之下，普通企业每天都要在没有任何类似保护的情况下厮杀求生。正如彼得·林奇 (Peter Lynch) 所说，那些销售类似大宗商品的公司，股票上应该贴一张警告标签：“竞争可能有害于人类的财富。”",[14,1605,1606],{},"可口可乐和吉列的竞争优势，即便是最随意的商业观察者也看得出来。然而它们的贝塔值却与一大堆平庸的、几乎没有竞争优势的公司差不多。我们是否应该由此得出结论：在衡量经营风险时，可口可乐和吉列的竞争优势毫无价值？或者我们是否应该得出结论：持有一家公司的股票的风险，与其业务经营的长期风险毫无关系？我们认为这两种说法都说不通，把贝塔值等同于投资风险同样说不通。",[14,1608,1609],{},"沉迷于贝塔理论的学者没有任何工具来区分——比方说——一家销售宠物石头或呼啦圈的玩具公司，与另一家唯一产品是大富翁 (Monopoly) 或芭比娃娃 (Barbie) 的玩具公司之间的风险差异。但普通投资者完全可以做出这样的区分，只要他对消费者行为和形成长期竞争优势或劣势的因素有合理的理解。当然，每个投资者都会犯错。但只要把自己局限在数量较少的、容易理解的投资标的上，一个理性、知性且勤勉的人就能以足够有用的精度来判断投资风险。",[14,1611,1612],{},"当然，在很多行业中，连查理跟我都分辨不出面对的是”宠物石头”还是”芭比娃娃”。而且即使我们花好几年深入研究这些行业，也未必能解决这个问题。有时是我们自身知识的局限妨碍了理解，有时则是行业本身的特性构成了障碍。比方说，一家必须应对快速变化技术的企业，根本不可能让人对其长期经济前景做出可靠的评判。我们三十年前能预见电视制造业或电脑行业的发展吗？当然不能。（那些满腔热忱投身这些行业的投资者和企业经理人大多也不能。）既然如此，查理跟我为什么要觉得自己能预测其他高速变化行业的未来呢？我们还是挑简单的来吧。一根针明明就在眼前，何必非要到干草堆里去找呢？",[14,1614,1615],{},"当然，有些投资策略——比如我们多年来的套利操作——确实需要广泛分散。如果单笔交易存在重大风险，就应该通过将这笔投资变成许多相互独立的投资组合中的一笔来降低整体风险。因此，你可以有意识地买入一项有风险的投资——一项确实有相当大可能造成损失的投资——只要你相信经概率加权后的预期收益大大超过同样加权后的预期损失，并且你能在一系列类似但不相关的机会中分散投资。大多数风险投资家用的就是这种方法。如果你也打算这样做，你应该采用赌场老板经营轮盘赌的心态——鼓励大量下注，因为概率对他有利，但拒绝任何一笔巨大的单注。",[14,1617,1618],{},"另一种需要广泛分散的情况是：一个投资者虽然看不懂具体行业的经济特征，但相信长期持有美国整体产业是有利的。这样的投资者应该广泛持有大量公司的股票，并把买入时间拉长。例如，通过定期投资指数基金，一个什么都不懂的投资者往往能跑赢大多数投资专家。矛盾的是，当”笨钱”认识到自己的局限时，它就不再笨了。",[14,1620,1621],{},"另一方面，如果你是一个有一定功底的投资者，能够理解商业经济学，并且能找到五到十家价格合理、拥有重要长期竞争优势的公司，那么传统的分散化理论对你就毫无意义了。那样做反而很可能损害你的投资业绩并增加你的风险。我实在想不通，这种类型的投资者为什么要把钱投到他第20看好的公司上，而不是干脆加仓到他最看好的几家——那些他最了解、风险最低同时盈利潜力最大的企业。用先知梅·韦斯特 (Mae West) 的话说：“好东西多多益善。”",[67,1623,1624],{"id":1624},"企业治理",[14,1626,1627,1628,1631],{},"在年度股东大会上，总有人会问：“要是哪天你被卡车撞了，这家公司怎么办？”我很庆幸他们还在这样问。再过不久，问题恐怕就会变成：“要是哪天你",[74,1629,1630],{},"没","被卡车撞到，我们怎么办？”",[14,1633,1634],{},"不管怎样，这类问题给了我一个讨论企业治理的理由——过去一年这是个热门话题。总的来说，我相信最近许多公司的董事们挺直了腰杆，股东们也开始比不久前更像是被当作真正的所有者来对待了。然而企业治理的评论家们很少区分上市公司中三种截然不同的管理层\u002F所有者关系。虽然在法律上董事的责任是相同的，但在不同情况下他们推动变革的能力差别很大。人们的注意力通常集中在第一种情况上，因为这是目前最普遍的。但由于伯克希尔属于第二种，而且总有一天会变成第三种，我们有必要三种都讨论一下。",[14,1636,1637],{},"第一种是最常见的情况：公司没有一个控股股东。在这种情况下，我认为董事应该假设公司存在一个因故缺席的大股东，以各种恰当的方式维护这位股东的长期利益。遗憾的是，“长期”这两个字给了董事很大的弹性空间。如果董事缺乏正直品质或独立思考的能力，他们可能在声称维护股东长期利益的同时严重损害股东。但假设董事会运作正常，面对的却是平庸甚至更差的管理层。那么董事就有责任更换管理层，正如一个聪明的大股东如果在场也会这样做。而如果有能力但贪婪的管理层过分伸手，想从股东口袋里捞太多好处，董事就必须出手制止。",[14,1639,1640],{},"在这种常见情况下，个别董事如果发现不满意的地方，应该试图说服其他董事接受自己的观点。如果成功了，董事会就有力量做出恰当的改变。但假设这位不满的董事无法获得其他董事的认同，那么他应该毫不犹豫地向缺席的股东们公开自己的看法。当然，董事很少真的这样做。许多董事的性格实际上与这种直言不讳的行为格格不入。但我认为这样做并无不妥——当然前提是问题确实严重。那位提出异议的董事自然可以预期来自其他不认同董事的强力反驳，而这种预期本身也会阻止任何人为鸡毛蒜皮或不理性的原因挑起事端。",[14,1642,1643],{},"对于上述这种董事会形态，我认为董事人数应该较少——比如十人或以下——并且多数应该来自外部。外部董事应该为CEO的表现制定标准，还应该定期在CEO不在场的情况下开会，对照标准评估其表现。",[14,1645,1646],{},"董事会成员的遴选条件应该是：具备商业才干、对这个角色有兴趣、以及以股东利益为导向。但现实中，董事常常只因为声名显赫或能增加董事会的多样性而被选中。这种做法是错误的。更糟糕的是，选错董事的后遗症特别严重，因为撤换董事太难了：一个人缘好但无能的董事从来不用担心自己的位子。",[14,1648,1649],{},"第二种情况就是伯克希尔目前的状态：控股股东同时也是管理者。在某些公司，两类具有不等投票权的股票安排会促成这种情况。在这种情况下，很明显董事会无法充当所有者和管理层之间的中介，除了通过劝说以外，董事也无法推动变革。因此，如果控股股东兼管理者本身能力平庸或更差——或者过于贪心——董事除了表示反对以外几乎无计可施。如果与大股东\u002F管理者没有利益关联的董事们一致表达意见，也许会有些效果。但更可能的结果是无济于事。",[14,1651,1652],{},"如果改变未能发生，而且问题足够严重，外部董事就应该辞职。他们的辞职将向外界传达对管理层的质疑信号，同时也凸显了一个事实：没有任何外部人能够纠正这位大股东\u002F管理者的缺失。",[14,1654,1655],{},"第三种治理情况发生在控股股东不参与管理的时候。好时食品 (Hershey Foods) 和道琼斯公司 (Dow Jones) 就属于这种情况，外部董事在其中可以发挥巨大的作用。如果他们对管理层的能力或品格不满意，可以直接去找控股股东（可能本身也是董事会成员）反映不满。这对外部董事来说是理想的处境，因为他只需要向一个大概率关心公司前景的控股股东陈述理由，如果论证有说服力，对方就能立即推动改变。即便如此，不满的董事也只有这一条路可走。如果在关键问题上依然不满意，他除了辞职别无选择。",[14,1657,1658],{},"从逻辑上讲，第三种情况最能确保一流管理层的存在。在第二种情况下，老板不会把自己开除掉；在第一种情况下，董事们常常发现要应对平庸的管理层或轻微的贪心非常棘手。除非不满的董事能争取到董事会多数的支持——这是一项尴尬的社交和后勤任务，尤其是当管理层的行为只是令人厌恶而非十恶不赦的时候——否则他们等于被捆住了手脚。在现实中，陷入这种困境的董事通常会说服自己留下来，至少还能做点好事。而与此同时，管理层依旧为所欲为。",[14,1660,1661],{},"在第三种情况下，控股股东既不需要评价自己，也不必费心去争取多数支持。他还能确保遴选出的外部董事能为董事会带来真正有价值的素质。而这些董事反过来也知道，自己给出的好建议会传达到真正管事的人耳中，而不是被顽固的管理层当作耳边风。如果控股股东既聪明又自信，他就会在管理层选择上做出精英化且有利于股东的决策。此外——这一点至关重要——他可以很容易地纠正自己犯的任何错误。",[14,1663,1664],{},"在伯克希尔，我们目前以第二种模式运营，只要我还在状态就会一直如此。顺便说一下，我的健康状况好得不得了。不管是好是坏，各位恐怕还得让我继续当一段时间的大股东兼经营者。",[14,1666,1667],{},"等我去世后，我所有的股份将归我的妻子苏珊 (Susie) 所有——如果她比我长寿的话；如果她先走，所有股份将捐给一个基金会。无论哪种情况，都不需要因为遗产税而被迫出售大量股份。",[14,1669,1670],{},"当我的股份转给妻子或基金会后，伯克希尔将进入第三种治理模式——一个高度关心公司但不参与管理的控股股东，搭配一个必须为这位股东交出成绩的管理团队。为了预先做好准备，苏珊几年前被选为公司董事，1993年我们的儿子霍华德 (Howard) 也加入了董事会。这些家族成员未来不会成为公司的管理者，但万一我有什么三长两短，他们将代表控股权。我们的其他大部分董事也是伯克希尔的重要股东，每一位都有着强烈的股东利益导向。总而言之，对于那辆可能开来的大卡车，我们已做好了准备。",[67,1672,1673],{"id":1673},"股东指定捐赠计划",[14,1675,1676],{},"大约97%的有效股权参与了伯克希尔1993年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐出的款项为940万美元，受益慈善机构有3,110家。",[14,1678,1679],{},"伯克希尔在自主慈善方面的做法——有别于与公司商业活动直接相关的捐赠——与其他上市公司大不相同。在其他公司，大部分捐赠都是按照CEO的意愿（他们往往是在回应社会压力）、员工（通过配比捐赠）或董事（通过配比捐赠或对CEO的要求）来进行的。",[14,1681,1682],{},"在伯克希尔，我们认为公司的钱就是股东的钱，就像在私人控股公司、合伙企业或独资企业中一样。因此，如果资金要捐给与伯克希尔业务无关的慈善事业，那么受益的应该是我们股东青睐的慈善机构。我们还没见过哪位CEO愿意自掏腰包去资助他股东们喜欢的慈善机构。那么凭什么让股东为他的选择买单呢？",[14,1684,1685,1686],{},"还要补充一点，我们这个计划管理起来非常简单。去年秋天，我们从国民保险公司借调了一个人，花了两个月的时间帮我们处理7,500名登记股东的捐赠指示。我估计那些有员工配比捐赠计划的一般公司，行政成本要高得多。事实上，我们整个公司的管理费用还不到慈善捐赠金额的一半。",[74,1687,1688],{},"（不过查理坚持要我告诉各位，490万美元管理费中有140万美元花在了我们的公务飞机——“无可辩解号” (The Indefensible) 上。）",[14,1690,1691],{},"下面列出了我们股东捐赠款项流向的最大类别：",[30,1693,1694,1697,1700,1703,1706,1709,1712,1715],{},[33,1695,1696],{},"347个教堂和犹太教堂收到569笔捐款",[33,1698,1699],{},"283所大专院校收到670笔捐款",[33,1701,1702],{},"244所K-12学校（约三分之二为世俗学校，三分之一为教会学校）收到525笔捐款",[33,1704,1705],{},"288所艺术、文化或人文机构收到447笔捐款",[33,1707,1708],{},"180所宗教性社会服务机构（基督教和犹太教大致各半）收到411笔捐款",[33,1710,1711],{},"445所世俗社会服务机构（约40%与青少年相关）收到759笔捐款",[33,1713,1714],{},"153所医院收到261笔捐款",[33,1716,1717],{},"186所健康相关组织（如美国心脏协会、美国癌症协会等）收到320笔捐款",[14,1719,1720],{},"这份清单中有三点我觉得特别有趣。第一，它在某种程度上反映了当人们凭自由意志行事、不受募款人施压或慈善机构的感性呼吁影响时，会选择把钱捐给什么地方。第二，上市公司的捐赠计划几乎从不允许捐赠给教堂或犹太教堂，但这显然是许多股东最想支持的机构。第三，我们股东的捐赠方向展现了相互矛盾的理念：有130笔捐款流向了支持女性堕胎权的机构，另有30笔捐款流向了反对或不鼓励堕胎的机构（宗教机构除外）。",[14,1722,1723],{},"去年我告诉各位，我正在考虑提高伯克希尔股东指定捐赠计划的额度，并征求大家的意见。我们收到了几封写得很好的反对信，理由是我们的工作是经营好企业，而不是强迫股东做慈善捐赠。不过大多数回信的股东认为这个计划具有税务上的优势，并敦促我们提高捐赠额度。有几位已经把股份送给子女或孙辈的股东告诉我，他们认为这个计划是让年轻人从小就开始思考”施予”这个话题的绝佳方式。换句话说，这些人把这个计划既看作教育工具，也看作慈善工具。最终结果是，1993年我们把额度从每股8美元提高到了每股10美元。",[14,1725,1726],{},"除了伯克希尔通过股东指定捐赠计划分配的捐款外，我们旗下的运营企业也会自行捐赠（包括实物），年均约250万美元。这些捐赠主要用于支持当地慈善事业，如联合劝募 (United Way) 等，所产生的效益大致与我们的付出相当。",[14,1728,1729,1730],{},"我们建议新股东阅读年报第50至51页关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。",[74,1731,1732],{},"如果您要参加以后的计划，必须确保股份登记在实际持有人名下，而非以经纪商、银行或托管人的代理名义登记。1994年8月31日之前未完成实名登记的股份将不具备参与1994年度计划的资格。",[67,1734,1735],{"id":1735},"几件私事",[14,1737,1738],{},"B夫人——罗斯·布鲁姆金 (Rose Blumkin)——在1993年12月3日度过了她100岁的生日。（蜡烛比蛋糕还贵。）那天家具店原本计划晚间继续营业。对于每周工作七天、营业多久她就工作多久的B夫人来说，做出正确的决定再简单不过了：她干脆把生日宴会推迟到店铺不营业的那天晚上。",[14,1740,1741],{},"B夫人的故事大家早就耳熟能详了，但还是值得再讲一遍。77年前她来到美国，不会说英文，也没有受过正式教育。1937年，她用500美元创立了内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)。去年这家店的销售额达到2亿美元，远超美国其他任何一家家具店。我们与她的合作关系始于十年前，B夫人将家具店的控股权卖给了伯克希尔——在这笔交易中，我们既没有要经审计的财务报表，也没有核查房地产产权，更没有要求任何担保。一句话，她的人品就是最好的保证。",[14,1743,1744,1745,1748],{},"当然我非常高兴能出席B夫人100岁的生日宴会。毕竟，她答应以后也要来参加",[74,1746,1747],{},"我","100岁的生日宴会。",[91,1750],{},[14,1752,1753],{},"凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆 (Katharine Graham) 去年从华盛顿邮报公司 (The Washington Post Company) 的董事长职位上退休，三年前她已经卸任了CEO。1973年，我们以大约1,000万美元买入了她公司的股票。如今这笔持股每年为我们带来700万美元的股利收入，市值超过4亿美元。当初买入时，我们知道这家公司的经济前景很好。但同样重要的是，查理跟我都认定凯瑟琳将会是一位杰出的管理者，并会公正地对待所有股东。后面这一点尤为关键，因为华盛顿邮报公司有两类股票——我们见过有些管理者会滥用这种结构。",[14,1755,1756],{},"我们当初对这笔投资的所有判断都被事实验证了。凯瑟琳的管理才能在去年得到了进一步的认可——她被《财富》杂志编辑委员会选入商业名人堂。而代表我们的股东，查理跟我早就把她列入了伯克希尔的名人堂。",[91,1758],{},[14,1760,1761],{},"去年退休的另一位是可口可乐的唐·基奥 (Don Keough)，虽然照他自己的说法，退休生活只持续了”大约14个小时”。Don是我认识的最杰出的人之一——不仅拥有过人的商业才华，更重要的是，他能让每一个有幸与他共事的人发挥出最好的自己。可口可乐希望它的产品伴随人们一生中最快乐的时光。Don这个人，本身就源源不断地增加着周围人的快乐。想起Don而不感到高兴，那是不可能的事。",[14,1763,1764],{},"说到我怎么认识Don的，顺便夹带一个关于我奥马哈街坊的”私货”：虽然查理已在加州住了45年，但他小时候的家离我现在住的房子不到200英尺；我的妻子苏珊 (Susie) 从小就住在一个半街区之外；我们这个邮政编码区内大约有125位伯克希尔的股东。至于Don，1958年他买下了我家正对面的房子。当时他还是一个收入微薄、家口众多的咖啡推销员。",[14,1766,1767],{},"在那些年里我对Don形成的印象，是我在1988-1989年间决定为伯克希尔投下创纪录的10亿美元买入可口可乐股票的重要因素之一。罗伯特·戈伊苏埃塔 (Roberto Goizueta) 在1981年成为可口可乐的CEO，Don是他的搭档。两人接手了一家在此前十年停滞不前的公司，在不到13年的时间里把它的市值从44亿美元推升到580亿美元。这样一对管理搭档能带来多么大的改变——即使他们的产品已经有100年的历史了。",[91,1769],{},[14,1771,1772],{},"弗兰克·鲁尼 (Frank Rooney) 去年可谓双倍辛劳。他不仅带领布朗鞋业创下了利润新高——比1992年的高点还高出35%——还是我们成功合并德克斯特的关键人物。",[14,1774,1775],{},"Frank认识Harold Alfond和Peter Lunder已有数十年。在我们买下布朗鞋业后不久，他就告诉我他们经营着多么出色的一家企业。他积极撮合我们见面，很快我们就达成了交易。Frank告诉Harold和Peter，伯克希尔将是德克斯特企业最理想的归宿，而这种保证无疑促成了他们加入我们的决定。",[14,1777,1778],{},"过去我告诉过各位Frank在担任梅尔维尔公司 (Melville Corp.) CEO的23年间所创下的非凡纪录。现在，72岁的他在伯克希尔的步伐甚至比以前更快。Frank风格低调、从容不迫，但千万不要被他骗了。当他大棒一挥时，球可是直接消失在围墙之外。",[67,1780,1781],{"id":1781},"年度股东大会",[14,1783,1784],{},"今年的年度股东大会将于1994年4月25日星期一上午9:30，在奥马哈市中心的奥芬剧院 (Orpheum Theater) 举行。去年的参会人数创下了2,200人的新纪录，不过这个剧院还能容纳更多人。我们会在大厅里展示许多旗下的消费品——糖果、喷枪、鞋子、餐具、百科全书等等。其中我最期待的是喜诗糖果 (See’s Candies) 为纪念B夫人100岁生日推出的礼盒装——包装上印的是B夫人的照片，而不是原来喜诗太太 (Mrs. See) 的照片。",[14,1786,1787],{},"我们建议各位尽早在以下酒店预订房间：(1) 拉迪森-雷迪克塔酒店 (Radisson-Redick Tower)，一家小巧（88间房）但不错的酒店，就在奥芬剧院对面；(2) 规模大得多的红狮酒店 (Red Lion Hotel)，距离奥芬剧院步行约五分钟；(3) 万豪酒店 (Marriott)，位于奥马哈西区，离波仙珠宝店 (Borsheim’s) 约100码，开车到市中心约20分钟。我们会在万豪酒店安排巴士，8:30和8:45发车前往会场，散会后返回。",[14,1789,1790],{},"随附的委托书材料会告诉各位如何获取入场所需的识别证。连同识别证，我们会附上奥芬剧院附近停车设施的信息。如果你开车来，请早点到。附近的停车场很快就会停满，你可能得多走几个街区。",[14,1792,1793],{},"和以往一样，会后我们有巴士送各位去内布拉斯加家具店和波仙珠宝店，之后再从那里送到市区酒店或机场。早到的朋友可以随时逛家具店：周六上午10点到下午5:30营业，周日中午到下午5:30营业。波仙珠宝店通常周日不营业，但4月24日星期天将特别为股东及来宾开放，时间为中午至下午6点。",[14,1795,1796],{},"过去几年去过波仙珠宝店的朋友可能都见过苏珊·雅克斯 (Susan Jacques)。1994年初，Susan被任命为公司总裁兼CEO。11年前她23岁时进入这家店，起薪是每小时4美元。周日当天Susan将在波仙珠宝店与我们其他许多子公司的经理人一起接待大家，查理跟我也会到场。",[14,1798,1799],{},"前一天晚上——4月23日星期六——在罗森布拉特体育场 (Rosenblatt Stadium) 有一场棒球赛，奥马哈皇家队 (Omaha Royals) 对阵纳什维尔之声队 (Nashville Sounds)（后者可能会是迈克尔·乔丹所在的球队）。各位可能知道，几年前我个人买下了皇家队25%的股权（一个我不太好意思张扬的资本配置决策），今年联盟很配合地把主场赛事安排在了股东大会期间。",[14,1801,1802],{},"4月23日我将担任开球嘉宾，而且我保证一定会比去年那次丢脸的表现有所进步。那次捕手莫名其妙地要求我投出”下沉球”，而我忠实地照做了——结果差点砸到自己的脚。今年不管捕手打什么暗号，我都要祭出我的高速直球，所以请大家带上测速仪。委托书资料中会有购票说明。遗憾的是，你们不用从黄牛那里买票。",[14,1804,1805],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1807,1808],{},"董事会主席",[14,1810,1811],{},"1994年3月1日",{"title":1813,"searchDepth":1814,"depth":1814,"links":1815},"",2,[1816,1818,1819,1820,1821,1822,1823,1824,1825,1826],{"id":69,"depth":1817,"text":69},3,{"id":107,"depth":1817,"text":107},{"id":540,"depth":1817,"text":540},{"id":836,"depth":1817,"text":836},{"id":863,"depth":1817,"text":863},{"id":1380,"depth":1817,"text":1380},{"id":1624,"depth":1817,"text":1624},{"id":1673,"depth":1817,"text":1673},{"id":1735,"depth":1817,"text":1735},{"id":1781,"depth":1817,"text":1781},"致股东信",null,"1993年巴菲特致股东信，讨论股票回购决策、喜诗糖果表现及吉列刀片投资","md",{},true,64,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1829},"1993 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","KdNn_0JIWs3vNdnzO1ktGVRn_0p871Oxsorn9OART7c","buffett",[1842,1847,1851,1855,1858,1861,1864,1867,1870,1873,1877,1880,1883,1887,1890,1893,1897,1900,1903,1907,1910,1913,1917,1920,1923,1927,1930,1933,1937,1940,1943,1947,1950,1953,1957,1960,1963,1967,1970,1973,1977,1980,1983,1987,1990,1993,1997,2000,2003,2007,2010,2013,2017,2020,2023,2027,2030,2033,2037,2040,2043,2047,2050,2053,2057,2060,2063,2067,2070,2073,2077,2080,2083,2087,2090,2093,2097,2100,2103,2107,2110,2113,2117,2120,2123,2127,2130,2133,2137,2140,2143,2147,2150,2153,2157,2160,2163,2167,2170,2173,2177,2180,2184,2187,2191,2194,2198,2201,2205,2208,2212,2215,2219,2222,2226,2229,2233,2236,2240,2243,2247,2250,2254,2257,2261,2264,2268,2271,2275,2278,2282,2285,2289,2292,2296,2299,2303,2306,2310,2313,2317,2320,2324,2327,2331,2334,2338,2341,2345,2348,2352,2355,2359,2362,2366,2369,2373,2376,2380,2383,2384,2387,2391,2394,2398,2401,2405,2408,2412,2415,2419,2422,2426,2429,2433,2436,2440,2443,2447,2450,2454,2457,2461,2464,2468,2471,2475,2478,2482,2485,2489,2492,2496,2499,2503,2506,2510,2513,2517,2520,2524,2527,2531,2534,2538,2541,2545,2548,2552,2555,2559,2562,2566,2569,2573,2576,2580,2583,2587,2590,2594,2597,2601,2604,2608,2611,2615,2618,2622,2625,2629,2632,2636,2639,2643,2647,2651,2655,2659,2663,2667,2671,2675,2679,2683,2687,2691,2695,2699,2703,2707,2711,2715,2719,2723,2727,2731,2735,2739,2743,2747,2751,2755,2759,2763,2767,2771,2775,2779,2783,2787,2791,2795,2799,2803,2807,2811,2815,2819,2823,2827,2831,2835,2839],{"title":1843,"slug":1844,"category":1845,"order":1846},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":1848,"slug":1849,"category":1850,"order":1846},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1852,"slug":1853,"category":1854,"order":1846},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1856,"slug":1857,"category":1845,"order":1814},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1859,"slug":1860,"category":1850,"order":1814},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1862,"slug":1863,"category":1854,"order":1814},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1865,"slug":1866,"category":1845,"order":1817},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1868,"slug":1869,"category":1850,"order":1817},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1871,"slug":1872,"category":1854,"order":1817},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1874,"slug":1875,"category":1845,"order":1876},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1878,"slug":1879,"category":1850,"order":1876},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1881,"slug":1882,"category":1854,"order":1876},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1884,"slug":1885,"category":1845,"order":1886},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1888,"slug":1889,"category":1850,"order":1886},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1891,"slug":1892,"category":1854,"order":1886},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1894,"slug":1895,"category":1845,"order":1896},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1898,"slug":1899,"category":1850,"order":1896},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1901,"slug":1902,"category":1854,"order":1896},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1904,"slug":1905,"category":1845,"order":1906},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1908,"slug":1909,"category":1850,"order":1906},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1911,"slug":1912,"category":1854,"order":1906},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1914,"slug":1915,"category":1845,"order":1916},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1918,"slug":1919,"category":1850,"order":1916},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1921,"slug":1922,"category":1854,"order":1916},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1924,"slug":1925,"category":1845,"order":1926},"1962年11月 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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2220,"slug":2221,"category":1850,"order":2218},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2223,"slug":2224,"category":1845,"order":2225},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2227,"slug":2228,"category":1850,"order":2225},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2230,"slug":2231,"category":1827,"order":2232},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2234,"slug":2235,"category":1850,"order":2232},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2237,"slug":2238,"category":1827,"order":2239},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2241,"slug":2242,"category":1850,"order":2239},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2244,"slug":2245,"category":1827,"order":2246},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2248,"slug":2249,"category":1850,"order":2246},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2251,"slug":2252,"category":1827,"order":2253},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2255,"slug":2256,"category":1850,"order":2253},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2258,"slug":2259,"category":1827,"order":2260},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2262,"slug":2263,"category":1850,"order":2260},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2265,"slug":2266,"category":1827,"order":2267},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2269,"slug":2270,"category":1850,"order":2267},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2272,"slug":2273,"category":1827,"order":2274},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2276,"slug":2277,"category":1850,"order":2274},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2279,"slug":2280,"category":1827,"order":2281},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2283,"slug":2284,"category":1850,"order":2281},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2286,"slug":2287,"category":1827,"order":2288},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2290,"slug":2291,"category":1850,"order":2288},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2293,"slug":2294,"category":1827,"order":2295},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2297,"slug":2298,"category":1850,"order":2295},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2300,"slug":2301,"category":1827,"order":2302},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2304,"slug":2305,"category":1850,"order":2302},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2307,"slug":2308,"category":1827,"order":2309},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2311,"slug":2312,"category":1850,"order":2309},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2314,"slug":2315,"category":1827,"order":2316},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2318,"slug":2319,"category":1850,"order":2316},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2321,"slug":2322,"category":1827,"order":2323},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2325,"slug":2326,"category":1850,"order":2323},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2328,"slug":2329,"category":1827,"order":2330},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2332,"slug":2333,"category":1850,"order":2330},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2335,"slug":2336,"category":1827,"order":2337},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2339,"slug":2340,"category":1850,"order":2337},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2342,"slug":2343,"category":1827,"order":2344},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2346,"slug":2347,"category":1850,"order":2344},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2349,"slug":2350,"category":1827,"order":2351},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2353,"slug":2354,"category":1850,"order":2351},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2356,"slug":2357,"category":1827,"order":2358},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2360,"slug":2361,"category":1850,"order":2358},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2363,"slug":2364,"category":1827,"order":2365},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2367,"slug":2368,"category":1850,"order":2365},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2370,"slug":2371,"category":1827,"order":2372},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2374,"slug":2375,"category":1850,"order":2372},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2377,"slug":2378,"category":1827,"order":2379},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2381,"slug":2382,"category":1850,"order":2379},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":5,"slug":1837,"category":1827,"order":1833},{"title":2385,"slug":2386,"category":1850,"order":1833},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2388,"slug":2389,"category":1827,"order":2390},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2392,"slug":2393,"category":1850,"order":2390},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2395,"slug":2396,"category":1827,"order":2397},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2399,"slug":2400,"category":1850,"order":2397},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2402,"slug":2403,"category":1827,"order":2404},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2406,"slug":2407,"category":1850,"order":2404},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2409,"slug":2410,"category":1827,"order":2411},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2413,"slug":2414,"category":1850,"order":2411},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2416,"slug":2417,"category":1827,"order":2418},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2420,"slug":2421,"category":1850,"order":2418},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2423,"slug":2424,"category":1827,"order":2425},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2427,"slug":2428,"category":1850,"order":2425},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2430,"slug":2431,"category":1827,"order":2432},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2434,"slug":2435,"category":1850,"order":2432},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2437,"slug":2438,"category":1827,"order":2439},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2441,"slug":2442,"category":1850,"order":2439},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2444,"slug":2445,"category":1827,"order":2446},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2448,"slug":2449,"category":1850,"order":2446},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2451,"slug":2452,"category":1827,"order":2453},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2455,"slug":2456,"category":1850,"order":2453},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2458,"slug":2459,"category":1827,"order":2460},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2462,"slug":2463,"category":1850,"order":2460},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2465,"slug":2466,"category":1827,"order":2467},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2469,"slug":2470,"category":1850,"order":2467},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2472,"slug":2473,"category":1827,"order":2474},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2476,"slug":2477,"category":1850,"order":2474},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2479,"slug":2480,"category":1827,"order":2481},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2483,"slug":2484,"category":1850,"order":2481},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2486,"slug":2487,"category":1827,"order":2488},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2490,"slug":2491,"category":1850,"order":2488},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2493,"slug":2494,"category":1827,"order":2495},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2497,"slug":2498,"category":1850,"order":2495},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2500,"slug":2501,"category":1827,"order":2502},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2504,"slug":2505,"category":1850,"order":2502},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2507,"slug":2508,"category":1827,"order":2509},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2511,"slug":2512,"category":1850,"order":2509},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2514,"slug":2515,"category":1827,"order":2516},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2518,"slug":2519,"category":1850,"order":2516},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2521,"slug":2522,"category":1827,"order":2523},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2525,"slug":2526,"category":1850,"order":2523},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2528,"slug":2529,"category":1827,"order":2530},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2532,"slug":2533,"category":1850,"order":2530},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2535,"slug":2536,"category":1827,"order":2537},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2539,"slug":2540,"category":1850,"order":2537},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2542,"slug":2543,"category":1827,"order":2544},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2546,"slug":2547,"category":1850,"order":2544},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2549,"slug":2550,"category":1827,"order":2551},"2015 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