[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3653},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2117,"library-sidebar-dao":3119,"library-sidebar-models":3421},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2103,"date":2104,"description":2105,"extension":2106,"meta":2107,"navigation":2108,"order":2109,"path":2110,"seo":2111,"seoDescription":2105,"seoTitle":2112,"slug":2113,"stem":2114,"__hash__":2115,"_collection":2116},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1994 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2089},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,75,78,81,84,87,90,93,96,99,102,105,108,283,286,289,292,295,298,301,429,432,435,438,441,444,447,450,453,456,459,462,465,468,471,474,477,480,483,486,489,492,495,498,501,504,935,938,941,944,947,950,953,956,959,1248,1264,1267,1270,1273,1276,1279,1741,1744,1747,1750,1753,1756,1759,1762,1765,1768,1771,1774,1777,1780,1783,1942,1945,1948,1960,1963,1966,1969,1972,1975,1978,1981,1984,1987,1990,1993,1996,1999,2002,2005,2008,2011,2014,2017,2020,2023,2026,2029,2032,2035,2040,2042,2045,2048,2050,2053,2056,2059,2062,2065,2068,2071,2074,2077,2080,2083,2086],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1994-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,21,22],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,24,25],{},"1994年本公司的净资产增加了14.5亿美元，即增长13.9%。自现任管理层接手的30年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元成长到目前的10,083美元，年复合增长率约为23%。",[14,27,28],{},"伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 跟我很少做预测。不过有一点我们倒是可以很有信心地说：伯克希尔未来的表现将很难再像过去那样辉煌。",[14,30,31],{},"问题不在于过去管用的方法将来会失灵。恰恰相反，我们相信我们的成功方程式——以合理的价格买进具有良好经济基础、同时由诚实且能干的人经营的企业——在将来一样能够获得不错的回报。因此我们预期未来仍会表现良好。",[14,33,34],{},"然而，太大的钱袋却是获取卓越投资回报的大敌。目前伯克希尔的净资产已高达119亿美元，而当初查理跟我开始经营这家公司时，净资产只有大约2,200万美元。虽然好公司一如既往的多，但对于伯克希尔的资本规模来说，太小的收购毫无意义。（就像查理常挂在嘴边的：“如果一件事情压根不值得做，那也不值得做好。”）现在我们只考虑至少1亿美元以上的投资，在这样的高门槛下，伯克希尔的投资范围一下子缩小了许多。",[14,36,37],{},"尽管如此，我们还是会坚守让我们走到今天的方法，绝不降低标准。泰德·威廉姆斯 (Ted Williams) 在《我一生的故事》中解释了个中原因：“我个人的看法是，如果你想成为一个优秀的击球手，首先得等到一个好球再去击打。这是教科书里的第一课。如果我强迫自己对最拿手区域以外的球出手，我就不会是打击率3成44的优秀击球手，而可能只是个打击率2成50的普通击球手。”查理和我都非常赞同这样的看法，因此我们将耐心等待机会进入我们自己的”甜蜜击球区”。",[14,39,40],{},"我们将继续无视任何政治和经济预测——对许多投资者和商业人士来说，这些预测是代价昂贵的干扰。三十年来，没有人能够预见越战的大规模升级、工资与物价管制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道琼斯指数一天暴跌508点，以及国库券收益率在2.8%到17.4%之间剧烈波动。",[14,42,43],{},"然而令人惊叹的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件，从未对本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 的投资原则造成丝毫动摇，也从未让以合理价格买进优良企业的做法显得不合时宜。想象一下，若是我们因为对未知的恐惧而推迟或改变资本的配置，将会付出多大的代价。事实上，我们最好的投资时机，往往出现在人们对某些宏观事件的悲观情绪达到顶峰之时。恐惧虽是跟风者的敌人，却是价值信徒的朋友。",[14,45,46],{},"未来三十年一定还会有一连串令人震惊的事件发生。我们既不会去预测它们，也不会试图从中获利。只要我们还能像过去那样找到类似的优质企业，那些外部冲击对我们的长期业绩几乎不会有什么影响。",[14,48,49],{},"我们向各位承诺的是——除了回报可能不如以往那么丰厚之外——在你持有伯克希尔股权期间，你所享受到的待遇将与查理和我完全一致。如果你们亏了钱，我们也不会好过；如果我们吃香的，你们也能喝辣的。我们绝不会搞什么只在赚钱时分一杯羹的薪酬安排来破坏这种合伙关系。",[14,51,52],{},"我们进一步向大家保证，我们个人绝大部分的财富将继续集中在伯克希尔的股份上：我们不会一边叫你们跟着投资，一边自己把钱放到别处。此外，我们家族大部分成员的资产，以及在1960年代查理和我经营合伙公司时的许多老朋友的资产，也都集中于伯克希尔的股份。为不负所托而竭尽全力，再也没有比这更好的激励了。",[14,54,55],{},"值得庆幸的是，我们现在的起点相当不错。十年前，也就是1984年，伯克希尔的保险子公司持有价值17亿美元的有价证券，折合每股伯克希尔约1,500美元。如果扣除这些证券带来的一切收入和资本利得，伯克希尔当年的税前利润只有大约600万美元。没错，我们在制造、零售和服务业务方面的确有收益，但几乎全部被保险业务的承保损失、管理费用和利息支出抵消掉了。",[14,57,58],{},"到了今天，我们持有的有价证券价值超过180亿美元，折合每股超过15,000美元。如果同样扣除这些证券的收益，我们1994年的税前利润约为3.84亿美元。这十年间，雇员人数从5,000人增长到22,000人（其中包括总部的11位同仁）。",[14,60,61],{},"之所以能取得这样的成果，要归功于一支卓越的经理人团队——是他们在一些看似平凡的业务中创造了非凡的成绩。凯西·斯坦格尔 (Casey Stengel) 把管理棒球队形容为”靠着别人打出的全垒打来领薪水”。这也正是我在伯克希尔的讨巧之处。",[14,63,64],{},"我们持有部分股权的那些企业，对伯克希尔的成功同样功不可没。几组数据就能说明它们的重要性：1994年，可口可乐 (Coca-Cola) 共计卖出大约2,800亿瓶8盎司装饮料，每瓶赚不到一美分。但积沙成塔——凭借伯克希尔持有可口可乐7.8%的股权，我们大约可以分到210亿瓶的经济利益，光”汽水收益”就将近2亿美元。同样地，凭借持有吉列 (Gillette) 的股票，伯克希尔大约拥有全球剃须刀和刀片市场7%的份额（按营收计而非按销量计），1994年为我们带来大约2.5亿美元的销售额。而在拥有530亿美元资产的富国银行 (Wells Fargo)，我们13%的持股比例相当于一家70亿美元资产规模的”伯克希尔银行”，1994年大约赚了1亿美元。",[14,66,67],{},"拥有”希望之钻”的一小块，远胜过拥有一整颗水钻。而刚才提到的那些公司，都堪称稀世宝石。更妙的是，我们收藏的可不止这几颗，而且还在不断增加。",[14,69,70],{},"股票价格仍会持续波动——有时甚至剧烈波动——经济景气也会起起落落。然而就长期而言，我们相信我们所持有的这类优质企业的价值，很大可能会继续以令人满意的速度增长。",[72,73,74],"h3",{"id":74},"账面价值与内在价值",[14,76,77],{},"我们定期报告每股账面价值——这是一个容易计算但用处有限的数字。同时我们也一再提醒各位，真正重要的是内在价值——一个无法精确计算但必须估算的数字。",[14,79,80],{},"打个比方，1964年我们可以很确定地告诉大家，伯克希尔每股账面价值为19.46美元。然而这个数字大大高估了股票的内在价值，因为公司所有资源都绑在一个盈利不佳的纺织业务上。我们的纺织资产无论是按持续经营还是按清算价值，都达不到账面数字。所以在1964年，任何人来考察伯克希尔的资产负债表是否健全，得到的答案大概跟那位名声可疑的好莱坞大亨给出的一样：“放心好了，负债如假包换！”",[14,82,83],{},"如今伯克希尔的情况完全反转了：我们控股的许多企业，其内在价值远远超出账面价值。（我们不控股的那些企业，例如可口可乐或吉列，则以当前市价列示。）不过我们仍然向各位提供账面价值数据，因为尽管明显偏低，它仍是跟踪伯克希尔内在价值的一个粗略参照。事实上去年这两个指标走势相当一致：账面价值增长了13.9%，内在价值的增幅也大致如此。",[14,85,86],{},"我们将内在价值定义为一家企业在其剩余存续期间所能产生的现金流量的折现值。任何计算内在价值的人得到的都是一个高度主观的数字，它会随着未来现金流预测的修正和利率的变动而不断变化。尽管模糊，内在价值却是最重要的——它是评估投资标的与企业相对吸引力的唯一合乎逻辑的方法。",[14,88,89],{},"为了理解历史投入（账面价值）与未来产出（内在价值）会如何背离，让我们来看另一种投资形式——大学教育。把教育成本看作它的”账面价值”。为了准确起见，这个成本应包括学生因选择上大学而放弃工作所损失的收入。",[14,91,92],{},"在这里，我们暂且不谈教育的非经济效益，只专注于经济价值。首先，我们必须估算这位毕业生终其一生所能获得的全部收入，然后减去他假设没有接受这项教育原本能够赚到的收入，从而得出超额收入。再以适当的利率将其折现到毕业日，最终得到的就是这项教育投资的内在经济价值。",[14,94,95],{},"有些毕业生会发现，教育的账面价值超过了内在价值——也就是说，谁花了钱让他上学，谁就没有收回本钱。另一些情况下，教育的内在价值远远超过账面价值——证明资本得到了明智的配置。不管是哪种情况，显而易见的是：账面价值作为衡量内在价值的指标毫无意义。",[14,97,98],{},"好了，让我们少一点学究气，来看看伯克希尔自己的实际案例——斯科特费泽 (Scott Fetzer)。这个例子不仅能说明账面价值与内在价值的关系如何变化，还能给大家上一堂我知道你们一直翘首以盼的会计课。当然，我选了一个结果大获全胜的收购案来讲。",[14,100,101],{},"伯克希尔在1986年初收购了斯科特费泽。当时这家公司旗下有22项业务，到今天还是一模一样——没有新增，也没有出售过任何一项。斯科特费泽的主要业务是世界图书百科全书 (World Book)、柯比吸尘器 (Kirby) 和坎贝尔·豪斯菲尔德 (Campbell Hausfeld) 空压机，不过其他业务对收益的贡献也相当重要。",[14,103,104],{},"我们花了3.152亿美元买下斯科特费泽，而当时该公司的账面价值为1.726亿美元。我们支付的1.426亿美元溢价，意味着我们认为该公司的内在价值大约是其账面价值的两倍。",[14,106,107],{},"下表列示了我们收购斯科特费泽以来，历年的账面价值、利润与分红情况：",[109,110,111,133],"table",{},[112,113,114],"thead",{},[115,116,117,121,124,127,130],"tr",{},[118,119,120],"th",{},"年度",[118,122,123],{},"年初账面价值 (1)（百万美元）",[118,125,126],{},"利润 (2)（百万美元）",[118,128,129],{},"分红 (3)（百万美元）",[118,131,132],{},"年末账面价值 (4)=(1)+(2)-(3)",[134,135,136,154,171,187,203,219,235,251,267],"tbody",{},[115,137,138,142,145,148,151],{},[139,140,141],"td",{},"1986",[139,143,144],{},"$172.6",[139,146,147],{},"$40.3",[139,149,150],{},"$125.0",[139,152,153],{},"$87.9",[115,155,156,159,162,165,168],{},[139,157,158],{},"1987",[139,160,161],{},"87.9",[139,163,164],{},"48.6",[139,166,167],{},"41.0",[139,169,170],{},"95.5",[115,172,173,176,178,181,184],{},[139,174,175],{},"1988",[139,177,170],{},[139,179,180],{},"58.0",[139,182,183],{},"35.0",[139,185,186],{},"118.6",[115,188,189,192,194,197,200],{},[139,190,191],{},"1989",[139,193,186],{},[139,195,196],{},"58.5",[139,198,199],{},"71.5",[139,201,202],{},"105.5",[115,204,205,208,210,213,216],{},[139,206,207],{},"1990",[139,209,202],{},[139,211,212],{},"61.3",[139,214,215],{},"33.5",[139,217,218],{},"133.3",[115,220,221,224,226,229,232],{},[139,222,223],{},"1991",[139,225,218],{},[139,227,228],{},"61.4",[139,230,231],{},"74.0",[139,233,234],{},"120.7",[115,236,237,240,242,245,248],{},[139,238,239],{},"1992",[139,241,234],{},[139,243,244],{},"70.5",[139,246,247],{},"80.0",[139,249,250],{},"111.2",[115,252,253,256,258,261,264],{},[139,254,255],{},"1993",[139,257,250],{},[139,259,260],{},"77.5",[139,262,263],{},"98.0",[139,265,266],{},"90.7",[115,268,269,272,274,277,280],{},[139,270,271],{},"1994",[139,273,266],{},[139,275,276],{},"79.3",[139,278,279],{},"76.0",[139,281,282],{},"94.0",[14,284,285],{},"由于在交易达成时公司现金充裕，斯科特费泽在1986年得以向伯克希尔分红1.25亿美元，尽管当年的利润只有4,030万美元。我必须强调，我们并没有在斯科特费泽的资产负债表上加杠杆。事实上，该公司从收购时略有负债变成了几乎零负债（旗下金融子公司的必要负债除外）。我们也没有售后回租工厂或出售应收账款之类。在我们持有的这些年里，斯科特费泽始终以保守的财务结构和充裕的流动性运营。",[14,287,288],{},"大家可以看到，自从我们买下斯科特费泽以来，公司利润稳步增长，但账面价值并未等比例增加。因此，在收购时就已经非常出色的股本回报率，到现在更是到了惊人的地步。将斯科特费泽的表现与财富500强 (Fortune 500) 进行比较，更能凸显它的非凡——如果它是一家独立公司，完全有资格跻身这份名单。",[14,290,291],{},"以最新的1993年财富500强名单来看，斯科特费泽的股本回报率可以排在第四位。但故事远不止如此。排名前三的公司分别是Insilco、LTV和Gaylord Container，三家都是在1993年走出破产程序的，当年的所谓利润主要来自于破产程序中被免除的债务，并没有什么实质性的经营收益。因此撇开这些非经营性的意外之财，斯科特费泽的股本回报率足以位列财富500强第一名，而且远远甩开第二名，甚至是第十名的两倍之多。",[14,293,294],{},"也许你会觉得斯科特费泽的成功必定源于收益的周期高峰、垄断地位或者高杠杆——然而统统不是。这家公司真正成功的原因，在于其CEO拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey) 杰出的管理能力。关于这一点，后面还会详细介绍。",[14,296,297],{},"首先，先来上那堂早就许诺的会计课：当我们为斯科特费泽支付了超出账面价值1.426亿美元的收购溢价后，这笔金额必须记在伯克希尔的资产负债表上。具体的会计处理方式我就不赘述了（详见我们1986年年报的附录），直接说结论：收购溢价在初始入账之后，几乎在所有情况下都必须通过逐年摊销转为收购方损益表上的成本费用。",[14,299,300],{},"下表展示了两组数据：一是伯克希尔每年摊销的斯科特费泽收购溢价金额，二是账面上剩余的溢价余额。这些费用既不影响现金也不影响我们缴纳的税款，从我们的角度看也没有任何经济上的实质意义（尽管许多会计师可能不同意我们）。这不过是让斯科特费泽在我们账面上的帐列价值逐步减少，最终与该公司实际运用的净资产相一致而已。",[109,302,303,318],{},[112,304,305],{},[115,306,307,309,312,315],{},[118,308,120],{},[118,310,311],{},"年初收购溢价（百万美元）",[118,313,314],{},"当年摊销计入伯克希尔费用（百万美元）",[118,316,317],{},"年末收购溢价（百万美元）",[134,319,320,333,346,358,370,381,393,405,417],{},[115,321,322,324,327,330],{},[139,323,141],{},[139,325,326],{},"$142.6",[139,328,329],{},"$11.6",[139,331,332],{},"$131.0",[115,334,335,337,340,343],{},[139,336,158],{},[139,338,339],{},"131.0",[139,341,342],{},"7.1",[139,344,345],{},"123.9",[115,347,348,350,352,355],{},[139,349,175],{},[139,351,345],{},[139,353,354],{},"7.9",[139,356,357],{},"115.9",[115,359,360,362,364,367],{},[139,361,191],{},[139,363,357],{},[139,365,366],{},"7.0",[139,368,369],{},"108.9",[115,371,372,374,376,378],{},[139,373,207],{},[139,375,369],{},[139,377,342],{},[139,379,380],{},"101.9",[115,382,383,385,387,390],{},[139,384,223],{},[139,386,380],{},[139,388,389],{},"6.9",[139,391,392],{},"95.0",[115,394,395,397,399,402],{},[139,396,239],{},[139,398,392],{},[139,400,401],{},"7.7",[139,403,404],{},"87.2",[115,406,407,409,411,414],{},[139,408,255],{},[139,410,404],{},[139,412,413],{},"28.1",[139,415,416],{},"59.1",[115,418,419,421,423,426],{},[139,420,271],{},[139,422,416],{},[139,424,425],{},"4.9",[139,427,428],{},"54.2",[14,430,431],{},"请注意，截至1994年底，账面溢价已降至5,420万美元。这个数字加上斯科特费泽年末的账面价值9,400万美元，合计1.482亿美元，就是斯科特费泽当前在伯克希尔账面上的帐列价值。这个数字还不到我们收购时帐列价值的一半。然而斯科特费泽现在每年赚的钱差不多是当时的两倍。很显然，该公司的内在价值一直在增长；但由于会计规则要求逐步摊销收购溢价，斯科特费泽在伯克希尔账面上的帐列价值却一再缩水——这种情况最终导致伯克希尔的账面利润和净资产都被低估了。",[14,433,434],{},"斯科特费泽的内在价值与其在伯克希尔账面上的帐列价值之间的差距现在已经非常巨大。如同我之前提到的——而且我很高兴再说一次——这种令人愉悦的不对称，功劳完全归于拉尔夫·谢伊，一位专注、聪明且品格出众的经理人。",[14,436,437],{},"拉尔夫成功的原因并不复杂。我的老师格雷厄姆在45年前就教我：在投资中，不需要做惊天动地的事来获得非凡的回报。后来我惊讶地发现，这个道理在企业管理中同样适用。经理人真正应该做的，就是把基本功做扎实而不三心二意。这正是拉尔夫的行事之道。他确立正确的目标，然后从不偏离初衷。在个人方面，拉尔夫是个令人愉快的合作伙伴——他对问题直言不讳，自信而不自负。",[14,439,440],{},"他还非常有经验。虽然我不知道拉尔夫的确切年龄，但我确信他跟我们旗下许多经理人一样，早就过了65岁。在伯克希尔，我们看的是绩效，不是日历。查理今年71岁，我64岁，我们俩都把拳王乔治·福尔曼 (George Foreman)（拳击史上年龄最大的世界重量级冠军）的照片摆在办公桌上。你们尽可以记下：我们对强制退休年龄的鄙视，每年只会有增无减。",[72,442,443],{"id":443},"内在价值与资本配置",[14,445,446],{},"理解内在价值，对经营者来说与对投资者一样重要。当经理人做资本配置决策时——包括是否回购股份——至关重要的是必须增加每股内在价值，避免使之减损。这些原则看似理所当然，但违反的情况却屡见不鲜。每当错误的资本配置发生，股东的利益就会受损。",[14,448,449],{},"举例来说，在筹划企业合并与收购时，许多经理人都把注意力放在交易对每股收益是立即增厚还是摊薄上（如果是金融机构，则看每股账面价值的增减）。这种过分强调是很危险的。让我们回到大学教育的例子：假设一位25岁的MBA一年级新生考虑将自己未来的经济利益与另一位25岁的普通工人合并。你会发现，这位尚无收入的MBA学生与工人进行”换股合并”后，近几年的每股收益会立即大幅提升。但是对这位MBA学生来说，还有什么比这更傻的交易呢？",[14,451,452],{},"同样道理，在公司交易中，如果被收购方的前景不同、持有不同规模的非经营性资产、或者资本结构不一样，那么只盯着当前收益是非常愚蠢的。在伯克希尔，我们拒绝了许多本可以美化当前收益但会损害每股内在价值的并购机会。我们的做法是遵循韦恩·格雷茨基 (Wayne Gretzky) 的建议：“滑向冰球将要到达的地方，而不是它现在的位置。”正因如此，比起按常规套路出牌，我们的股东现在多赚了好几十亿美元。",[14,454,455],{},"可悲的事实是，大部分大型并购案都呈现出严重的失衡：被收购方的股东赚得盆满钵满；收购方的管理层名利双收；双方的投资银行家和各路专业人士也跟着大捞一笔。但很遗憾，受害的往往是收购方的股东——损失还往往相当惨重。原因在于收购方放弃的内在价值通常多于获得的。如果这种事干多了——正如美联银行 (Wachovia Corp.) 已退休的掌门人约翰·梅德林 (John Medlin) 所说的——“你就是在倒着玩连锁信。”",[14,457,458],{},"长期而言，经营者配置资本的能力对企业价值有着举足轻重的影响。几乎可以这么说：一家真正好的公司所产出的现金（至少在度过早期成长阶段之后）远远超出其内部所能消化的。公司当然可以通过分红或回购股份将钱返还给股东。但往往CEO会去问战略规划部门、咨询顾问或投资银行家，搞一两次收购是否有利可图。这就好比问你的室内设计师，你是不是需要一块5万美元的地毯。",[14,460,461],{},"并购问题还因为一种生物本能而变本加厉：许多CEO之所以能够登上高位，部分原因正是因为他们有着旺盛的动物精神和自尊心。如果一位高管极富这类特质——当然我们得承认，有时这也是一种优势——那么这些冲动在他爬到顶峰之后并不会消失。当这样的CEO被他的顾问们鼓励去做并购交易时，他的反应就像一个十几岁的男孩被父亲鼓励去过正常的性生活一样——他根本不需要谁推一把。",[14,463,464],{},"几年前，我的一位CEO朋友——当然他是在开玩笑——无意间点破了许多大型交易的病根。这位朋友经营着一家财产意外险公司，当时正在向董事们解释为什么想要收购一家人寿保险公司。在干巴巴地念完一大串经济和战略上的理由之后，他突然扔掉了演讲稿，调皮地咧嘴一笑，说了句：“好啦，伙计们，谁让其他保险公司都有一家呢。”",[14,466,467],{},"在伯克希尔，我们的经理人将继续在那些看似平凡的业务中创造非凡的回报。第一步，这些经理人会想方设法在自己的业务中有效配置利润。剩下用不完的，他们就交给查理跟我。然后我们会努力用这些资金来提升每股内在价值。我们的目标是：收购我们能够理解的、具有良好且可持续经济基础的、由我们喜爱、敬佩和信赖的人所经营的企业——不论是全部还是部分的所有权。",[72,469,470],{"id":470},"薪酬待遇",[14,472,473],{},"在伯克希尔，对于薪酬待遇，我们力求和资本配置一样合情合理。举例来说，我们给拉尔夫·谢伊的薪酬是基于斯科特费泽的业绩，而非伯克希尔整体的业绩。这再合理不过了——他负责的是一个事业部而非整个伯克希尔。如果把他的薪酬与伯克希尔的股票期权或奖金挂钩，对拉尔夫来说就成了纯粹的碰运气。比方说，他可能在斯科特费泽频频击出全垒打，查理跟我却在伯克希尔这边搞砸了，结果他的努力被抵消了好几倍。反过来说，如果伯克希尔其他部门大放异彩而斯科特费泽落在后头，凭什么要给拉尔夫一大笔期权利润或奖金呢？",[14,475,476],{},"在设定薪酬时，我们乐意许下丰厚的大胡萝卜，但必须确保这些回报与经理人自己能掌控的业绩直接挂钩。当一个业务投入了大量资本时，我们会向经理人使用的增量资本收取很高的费率，同时也以同样高的费率奖励他们释放出来的资本。",[14,478,479],{},"这种”资金不是免费的”理念在斯科特费泽表现得一清二楚。如果拉尔夫能用增量资金获得好的回报，这么做对他有利——当增量资本的回报超过我们设定的门槛时，他的奖金也会水涨船高。但我们的奖金计算是对称的：如果增量投资的回报低于标准，差额部分对拉尔夫和伯克希尔来说代价同样高昂。这种双向安排的结果是，当拉尔夫在自己的业务中找不到有利可图的资金用途时，把钱送回奥马哈对他来说同样获利丰厚。",[14,481,482],{},"如今上市公司流行声称每一项薪酬计划都让管理层的利益与股东”保持一致”。在我们看来，“一致”意味着同舟共济——顺风时分享、逆风时也共担，而不只是在赚钱时才一起分蛋糕。许多公司所谓”一致”的薪酬计划，在这个基本测试面前都不及格——实质上不过是包装精巧的”赚了算我的，赔了算你们的”。",[14,484,485],{},"这种”不一致”最常见的形式就是典型的员工期权计划——期权的行权价格并不会定期上调，以反映留存收益正在持续增加公司的财富这一事实。事实上，一份十年期的期权，加上低分红率，再加上复利效应，可以让一个在岗位上只是原地踏步的经理人获得丰厚的回报。计较一点的人甚至会发现，支付给股东的股利越少，持有期权的经理人获利就越多。到目前为止，在那些要求股东批准期权计划的委托书声明中，我还没见过谁把这至关重要的一点讲清楚。",[14,487,488],{},"我忍不住要提一下，我们和拉尔夫·谢伊之间的薪酬协议，是在收购斯科特费泽后大约五分钟内就谈好的，既没有律师也没有薪酬顾问来”帮忙”。这份协议只包含几条非常简单的条款——不是那种薪酬顾问钟爱的复杂方案，要知道他们不制造出一大堆”问题”就没法开出高额账单（当然还得每年定期”复查”一番）。我们与拉尔夫的协议至今从未改动过。1986年我们双方都觉得公平合理的，到现在依然如此。同样，我们与旗下所有其他事业经理人的协议也都很简单，不过每份协议的条款会根据各业务的经济特征以及经理人是否持有部分所有权等情况有所不同。",[14,490,491],{},"在所有个案中，我们追求的都是合理。那种回报与个人实际贡献脱钩、全凭运气的薪酬安排，某些经理人可能很欢迎——毕竟谁会拒绝一张免费的彩票？但这类安排对公司来说是一种浪费，也会让经理人忽略他真正应该关注的事。此外，母公司的不理性做法还会鼓励子公司有样学样。",[14,493,494],{},"在伯克希尔，只有查理和我需要对整个企业的经营负责。因此，我们是唯二应该按照公司整体表现来获取薪酬的人。即便如此，这也不是我们所追求的薪酬方式。我们精心设计了公司和我们的工作模式，好让我们能与欣赏的人一起做喜欢的事。同样重要的是，我们很少被迫去做无聊或不愿做的工作。身为公司掌舵人，我们享受着丰富的物质和精神上的回报。在这种田园诗般的环境中，我们实在不好意思再让股东额外掏出一大笔我们根本不需要的报酬。",[14,496,497],{},"事实上，就算不领薪水，查理和我也会为拥有这样一份美差而心满意足。说到底，我们信奉罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 的名言：“辛勤工作大概不会要了谁的命，但何必去亲身验证呢？”",[72,499,500],{"id":500},"账列收益的来源",[14,502,503],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在这份报表中，我们在前面分析斯科特费泽时讨论过的那类收购溢价摊销费用，没有分摊到对应的各项业务中，而是汇总后单独列示。这样做的目的是让大家看到各项业务的收益，就像它们从未被我们收购过一样。在我们看来，这种呈现方式对投资者和经理人来说，比通用会计准则 (GAAP) 要求的按业务逐笔摊销方式更有参考价值。当然，最终的合计数字与我们经审计的财务报表中GAAP总数是完全一致的。",[109,505,506,522],{},[112,507,508],{},[115,509,510,512,515,517,520],{},[118,511],{},[118,513,514],{},"税前利润",[118,516,514],{},[118,518,519],{},"伯克希尔应占净利润（扣除税项及少数股东权益）",[118,521,519],{},[134,523,524,537,552,565,582,599,616,633,650,667,684,701,718,735,752,769,786,803,820,832,849,866,882,896,908],{},[115,525,526,529,531,533,535],{},[139,527,528],{},"（千美元）",[139,530,271],{},[139,532,255],{},[139,534,271],{},[139,536,255],{},[115,538,539,544,546,548,550],{},[139,540,541],{},[17,542,543],{},"运营收益：",[139,545],{},[139,547],{},[139,549],{},[139,551],{},[115,553,554,557,559,561,563],{},[139,555,556],{},"保险业务集团：",[139,558],{},[139,560],{},[139,562],{},[139,564],{},[115,566,567,570,573,576,579],{},[139,568,569],{},"承保利润",[139,571,572],{},"$129,926",[139,574,575],{},"$30,876",[139,577,578],{},"$80,860",[139,580,581],{},"$20,156",[115,583,584,587,590,593,596],{},[139,585,586],{},"净投资收益",[139,588,589],{},"419,422",[139,591,592],{},"375,946",[139,594,595],{},"350,453",[139,597,598],{},"321,321",[115,600,601,604,607,610,613],{},[139,602,603],{},"布法罗新闻报",[139,605,606],{},"54,238",[139,608,609],{},"50,962",[139,611,612],{},"31,685",[139,614,615],{},"29,696",[115,617,618,621,624,627,630],{},[139,619,620],{},"菲希海默",[139,622,623],{},"14,260",[139,625,626],{},"13,442",[139,628,629],{},"7,107",[139,631,632],{},"6,931",[115,634,635,638,641,644,647],{},[139,636,637],{},"金融业务",[139,639,640],{},"21,568",[139,642,643],{},"22,695",[139,645,646],{},"14,293",[139,648,649],{},"14,161",[115,651,652,655,658,661,664],{},[139,653,654],{},"柯比",[139,656,657],{},"42,349",[139,659,660],{},"39,147",[139,662,663],{},"27,719",[139,665,666],{},"25,056",[115,668,669,672,675,678,681],{},[139,670,671],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[139,673,674],{},"17,356",[139,676,677],{},"21,540",[139,679,680],{},"8,652",[139,682,683],{},"10,398",[115,685,686,689,692,695,698],{},[139,687,688],{},"斯科特费泽制造集团",[139,690,691],{},"39,435",[139,693,694],{},"38,196",[139,696,697],{},"24,909",[139,699,700],{},"23,809",[115,702,703,706,709,712,715],{},[139,704,705],{},"喜诗糖果",[139,707,708],{},"47,539",[139,710,711],{},"41,150",[139,713,714],{},"28,247",[139,716,717],{},"24,367",[115,719,720,723,726,729,732],{},[139,721,722],{},"鞋业集团",[139,724,725],{},"85,503",[139,727,728],{},"44,025*",[139,730,731],{},"55,750",[139,733,734],{},"28,829",[115,736,737,740,743,746,749],{},[139,738,739],{},"世界图书百科全书",[139,741,742],{},"24,662",[139,744,745],{},"19,915",[139,747,748],{},"17,275",[139,750,751],{},"13,537",[115,753,754,757,760,763,766],{},[139,755,756],{},"收购溢价摊销",[139,758,759],{},"(22,595)",[139,761,762],{},"(17,033)",[139,764,765],{},"(19,355)",[139,767,768],{},"(13,996)",[115,770,771,774,777,780,783],{},[139,772,773],{},"利息费用**",[139,775,776],{},"(60,111)",[139,778,779],{},"(56,545)",[139,781,782],{},"(37,264)",[139,784,785],{},"(35,614)",[115,787,788,791,794,797,800],{},[139,789,790],{},"股东指定捐赠",[139,792,793],{},"(10,419)",[139,795,796],{},"(9,448)",[139,798,799],{},"(6,668)",[139,801,802],{},"(5,994)",[115,804,805,808,811,814,817],{},[139,806,807],{},"其他",[139,809,810],{},"36,232",[139,812,813],{},"28,428",[139,815,816],{},"22,576",[139,818,819],{},"15,094",[115,821,822,824,826,828,830],{},[139,823],{},[139,825],{},[139,827],{},[139,829],{},[139,831],{},[115,833,834,837,840,843,846],{},[139,835,836],{},"运营收益合计",[139,838,839],{},"839,365",[139,841,842],{},"643,296",[139,844,845],{},"606,239",[139,847,848],{},"477,751",[115,850,851,854,857,860,863],{},[139,852,853],{},"证券出售收益",[139,855,856],{},"91,332",[139,858,859],{},"546,422",[139,861,862],{},"61,138",[139,864,865],{},"356,702",[115,867,868,871,874,877,880],{},[139,869,870],{},"全美航空优先股减值",[139,872,873],{},"(268,500)",[139,875,876],{},"—",[139,878,879],{},"(172,579)",[139,881,876],{},[115,883,884,887,889,891,893],{},[139,885,886],{},"新会计准则导致的税项调整",[139,888,876],{},[139,890,876],{},[139,892,876],{},[139,894,895],{},"(146,332)",[115,897,898,900,902,904,906],{},[139,899],{},[139,901],{},[139,903],{},[139,905],{},[139,907],{},[115,909,910,915,920,925,930],{},[139,911,912],{},[17,913,914],{},"全部收益合计",[139,916,917],{},[17,918,919],{},"$662,197",[139,921,922],{},[17,923,924],{},"$1,189,718",[139,926,927],{},[17,928,929],{},"$494,798",[139,931,932],{},[17,933,934],{},"$688,121",[14,936,937],{},"** 仅包含德克斯特鞋业 (Dexter) 自1993年11月7日收购完成后的利润。*",[14,939,940],{},"*** 不含金融业务的利息费用。*",[14,942,943],{},"这些业务的大量详细信息载于年报第37-48页，在那里你们还能找到按GAAP标准编制的分部利润。此外在第53-59页，我们以非GAAP标准将伯克希尔的财务数据重新整理为四大板块——这种分法与查理跟我看待公司的方式一致。我们的原则是：假如我们的角色互换，你们来经营而我们来投资，我们希望你们提供给我们什么样的财务信息，我们就给你们提供什么样的信息。",[72,945,946],{"id":946},"透视收益",[14,948,949],{},"在过去的年报中，我们讨论过”透视收益“这个概念。我们认为它比GAAP数字更能真实地反映伯克希尔的盈利状况。我们是这样计算的：(1) 前面报告的运营收益，加上 (2) 主要被投资公司按GAAP会计原则未反映在我们利润中的留存经营收益，再减去 (3) 若这些被投资公司的留存收益分配给我们时估计应缴纳的所得税。这里说的”运营收益”不包括资本利得、特殊会计项目和重大重组费用。",[14,951,952],{},"如果我们的内在价值想以每年15%的目标速度增长，那么长期来看，我们的透视收益也必须以大致相同的速度增长。几年前我首次解释这个概念时曾说过，要实现15%的增长目标，到2000年我们的透视收益需要达到约18亿美元。由于此后我们又增发了约3%的新股，这个门槛已提高到18.5亿美元。",[14,954,955],{},"目前我们稍稍领先于预定进度，但这在很大程度上是因为我们的巨灾再保险业务近年来的收益远超趋势线预期（下一节将详加讨论）。考虑到这一非常态因素，我们仍然预计能够实现目标——但当然这并不是板上钉钉的事。",[14,957,958],{},"下表列示了我们如何计算透视收益，不过我要提醒各位，这些数字必然比较粗略。（被投资公司支付给我们的股利已包含在第12页所列的运营收益中，主要在”保险业务集团：净投资收益”项下。）",[109,960,961,978],{},[112,962,963],{},[115,964,965,968,971,973,976],{},[118,966,967],{},"伯克希尔主要被投资公司",[118,969,970],{},"年末约持股比例",[118,972,970],{},[118,974,975],{},"伯克希尔应占未分配经营收益",[118,977,975],{},[134,979,980,993,1010,1026,1043,1060,1075,1092,1109,1124,1141,1158,1170,1185,1200,1215,1227],{},[115,981,982,985,987,989,991],{},[139,983,984],{},"（百万美元）",[139,986,271],{},[139,988,255],{},[139,990,271],{},[139,992,255],{},[115,994,995,998,1001,1004,1007],{},[139,996,997],{},"美国运通",[139,999,1000],{},"5.5%",[139,1002,1003],{},"2.4%",[139,1005,1006],{},"$25(2)",[139,1008,1009],{},"$16",[115,1011,1012,1015,1018,1020,1023],{},[139,1013,1014],{},"大都会\u002FABC",[139,1016,1017],{},"13.0%",[139,1019,1017],{},[139,1021,1022],{},"85",[139,1024,1025],{},"83(2)",[115,1027,1028,1031,1034,1037,1040],{},[139,1029,1030],{},"可口可乐",[139,1032,1033],{},"7.8%",[139,1035,1036],{},"7.2%",[139,1038,1039],{},"116(2)",[139,1041,1042],{},"94",[115,1044,1045,1048,1051,1054,1057],{},[139,1046,1047],{},"联邦住宅贷款抵押公司",[139,1049,1050],{},"6.3%(1)",[139,1052,1053],{},"6.8%(1)",[139,1055,1056],{},"47(2)",[139,1058,1059],{},"41(2)",[115,1061,1062,1065,1068,1070,1073],{},[139,1063,1064],{},"甘尼特公司",[139,1066,1067],{},"4.9%",[139,1069,876],{},[139,1071,1072],{},"4(2)",[139,1074,876],{},[115,1076,1077,1080,1083,1086,1089],{},[139,1078,1079],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO)",[139,1081,1082],{},"50.2%",[139,1084,1085],{},"48.4%",[139,1087,1088],{},"63(3)",[139,1090,1091],{},"76(3)",[115,1093,1094,1097,1100,1103,1106],{},[139,1095,1096],{},"吉列",[139,1098,1099],{},"10.8%",[139,1101,1102],{},"10.9%",[139,1104,1105],{},"51",[139,1107,1108],{},"44",[115,1110,1111,1114,1117,1119,1122],{},[139,1112,1113],{},"PNC银行",[139,1115,1116],{},"8.3%",[139,1118,876],{},[139,1120,1121],{},"10(2)",[139,1123,876],{},[115,1125,1126,1129,1132,1135,1138],{},[139,1127,1128],{},"华盛顿邮报",[139,1130,1131],{},"15.2%",[139,1133,1134],{},"14.8%",[139,1136,1137],{},"18",[139,1139,1140],{},"15",[115,1142,1143,1146,1149,1152,1155],{},[139,1144,1145],{},"富国银行",[139,1147,1148],{},"13.3%",[139,1150,1151],{},"12.2%",[139,1153,1154],{},"73",[139,1156,1157],{},"53(2)",[115,1159,1160,1162,1164,1166,1168],{},[139,1161],{},[139,1163],{},[139,1165],{},[139,1167],{},[139,1169],{},[115,1171,1172,1175,1177,1179,1182],{},[139,1173,1174],{},"被投资公司未分配收益中伯克希尔应占部分",[139,1176],{},[139,1178],{},[139,1180,1181],{},"$492",[139,1183,1184],{},"$422",[115,1186,1187,1190,1192,1194,1197],{},[139,1188,1189],{},"上述未分配收益的假设税项(4)",[139,1191],{},[139,1193],{},[139,1195,1196],{},"(68)",[139,1198,1199],{},"(59)",[115,1201,1202,1205,1207,1209,1212],{},[139,1203,1204],{},"伯克希尔报告的运营收益",[139,1206],{},[139,1208],{},[139,1210,1211],{},"606",[139,1213,1214],{},"478",[115,1216,1217,1219,1221,1223,1225],{},[139,1218],{},[139,1220],{},[139,1222],{},[139,1224],{},[139,1226],{},[115,1228,1229,1234,1236,1238,1243],{},[139,1230,1231],{},[17,1232,1233],{},"伯克希尔透视收益合计",[139,1235],{},[139,1237],{},[139,1239,1240],{},[17,1241,1242],{},"$1,030",[139,1244,1245],{},[17,1246,1247],{},"$841",[1249,1250,1251,1255,1258,1261],"ol",{},[1252,1253,1254],"li",{},"不包括韦斯科金融 (Wesco) 少数股东权益对应的股份",[1252,1256,1257],{},"按全年平均持股比例计算",[1252,1259,1260],{},"不包括已实现资本利得（该公司的资本利得是经常性的且金额较大）",[1252,1262,1263],{},"采用14%的税率，即伯克希尔实际收到股利时适用的税率",[72,1265,1266],{"id":1266},"保险业务",[14,1268,1269],{},"正如我们在之前的年报中解释过的，我们的保险业务最看重两件事：第一是浮存金的增长规模，第二是浮存金的获取成本。浮存金是我们持有但不拥有的钱。保险业务中之所以存在浮存金，是因为大部分保单要求保户预付保费，更重要的是，从保险公司收到索赔通知到最终解决理赔，通常需要相当长的时间。",[14,1271,1272],{},"一般来说，保险公司收取的保费不足以覆盖它必须支付的赔付和费用，由此产生的差额就是”承保损失”——也就是浮存金的成本。",[14,1274,1275],{},"长期来看，如果保险公司的浮存金成本低于它通过其他渠道获取资金的成本，那么保险业务就是有利可图的。反之，如果浮存金的成本长期高于市场利率，保险业务就没什么价值。",[14,1277,1278],{},"如下表中的数据所示，伯克希尔的保险业务大获全胜。在此表中，我们将损失准备金、损失调整准备金、再保险分入业务准备金和未到期保费准备金相加，再减去应收保险代理款、预付承保费用、预付税款和再保险分入相关的递延费用，从而得出浮存金——相对于我们的保费规模而言，浮存金的数额相当可观。浮存金的成本取决于承保是盈利还是亏损。在过去两年中，我们取得了承保利润，这意味着浮存金成本为负——我们通过将承保利润加上浮存金的投资收益来计算保险业务的总收益。",[109,1280,1281,1299],{},[112,1282,1283],{},[115,1284,1285,1287,1290,1293,1296],{},[118,1286,120],{},[118,1288,1289],{},"承保损失 (1)（百万美元）",[118,1291,1292],{},"平均浮存金 (2)（百万美元）",[118,1294,1295],{},"近似资金成本 (1\u002F2)",[118,1297,1298],{},"年末长期政府债券收益率",[134,1300,1301,1318,1333,1348,1365,1380,1395,1410,1427,1444,1459,1474,1489,1504,1519,1534,1551,1568,1585,1602,1618,1634,1650,1665,1681,1697,1713,1727],{},[115,1302,1303,1306,1309,1312,1315],{},[139,1304,1305],{},"1967",[139,1307,1308],{},"盈利",[139,1310,1311],{},"$17.3",[139,1313,1314],{},"低于零",[139,1316,1317],{},"5.50%",[115,1319,1320,1323,1325,1328,1330],{},[139,1321,1322],{},"1968",[139,1324,1308],{},[139,1326,1327],{},"19.9",[139,1329,1314],{},[139,1331,1332],{},"5.90%",[115,1334,1335,1338,1340,1343,1345],{},[139,1336,1337],{},"1969",[139,1339,1308],{},[139,1341,1342],{},"23.4",[139,1344,1314],{},[139,1346,1347],{},"6.79%",[115,1349,1350,1353,1356,1359,1362],{},[139,1351,1352],{},"1970",[139,1354,1355],{},"$0.37",[139,1357,1358],{},"32.4",[139,1360,1361],{},"1.14%",[139,1363,1364],{},"6.25%",[115,1366,1367,1370,1372,1375,1377],{},[139,1368,1369],{},"1971",[139,1371,1308],{},[139,1373,1374],{},"52.5",[139,1376,1314],{},[139,1378,1379],{},"5.81%",[115,1381,1382,1385,1387,1390,1392],{},[139,1383,1384],{},"1972",[139,1386,1308],{},[139,1388,1389],{},"69.5",[139,1391,1314],{},[139,1393,1394],{},"5.82%",[115,1396,1397,1400,1402,1405,1407],{},[139,1398,1399],{},"1973",[139,1401,1308],{},[139,1403,1404],{},"73.3",[139,1406,1314],{},[139,1408,1409],{},"7.27%",[115,1411,1412,1415,1418,1421,1424],{},[139,1413,1414],{},"1974",[139,1416,1417],{},"7.36",[139,1419,1420],{},"79.1",[139,1422,1423],{},"9.30%",[139,1425,1426],{},"8.13%",[115,1428,1429,1432,1435,1438,1441],{},[139,1430,1431],{},"1975",[139,1433,1434],{},"11.35",[139,1436,1437],{},"87.6",[139,1439,1440],{},"12.96%",[139,1442,1443],{},"8.03%",[115,1445,1446,1449,1451,1454,1456],{},[139,1447,1448],{},"1976",[139,1450,1308],{},[139,1452,1453],{},"102.6",[139,1455,1314],{},[139,1457,1458],{},"7.30%",[115,1460,1461,1464,1466,1469,1471],{},[139,1462,1463],{},"1977",[139,1465,1308],{},[139,1467,1468],{},"139.0",[139,1470,1314],{},[139,1472,1473],{},"7.97%",[115,1475,1476,1479,1481,1484,1486],{},[139,1477,1478],{},"1978",[139,1480,1308],{},[139,1482,1483],{},"190.4",[139,1485,1314],{},[139,1487,1488],{},"8.93%",[115,1490,1491,1494,1496,1499,1501],{},[139,1492,1493],{},"1979",[139,1495,1308],{},[139,1497,1498],{},"227.3",[139,1500,1314],{},[139,1502,1503],{},"10.08%",[115,1505,1506,1509,1511,1514,1516],{},[139,1507,1508],{},"1980",[139,1510,1308],{},[139,1512,1513],{},"237.0",[139,1515,1314],{},[139,1517,1518],{},"11.94%",[115,1520,1521,1524,1526,1529,1531],{},[139,1522,1523],{},"1981",[139,1525,1308],{},[139,1527,1528],{},"228.4",[139,1530,1314],{},[139,1532,1533],{},"13.61%",[115,1535,1536,1539,1542,1545,1548],{},[139,1537,1538],{},"1982",[139,1540,1541],{},"21.56",[139,1543,1544],{},"220.6",[139,1546,1547],{},"9.77%",[139,1549,1550],{},"10.64%",[115,1552,1553,1556,1559,1562,1565],{},[139,1554,1555],{},"1983",[139,1557,1558],{},"33.87",[139,1560,1561],{},"231.3",[139,1563,1564],{},"14.64%",[139,1566,1567],{},"11.84%",[115,1569,1570,1573,1576,1579,1582],{},[139,1571,1572],{},"1984",[139,1574,1575],{},"48.06",[139,1577,1578],{},"253.2",[139,1580,1581],{},"18.98%",[139,1583,1584],{},"11.58%",[115,1586,1587,1590,1593,1596,1599],{},[139,1588,1589],{},"1985",[139,1591,1592],{},"44.23",[139,1594,1595],{},"390.2",[139,1597,1598],{},"11.34%",[139,1600,1601],{},"9.34%",[115,1603,1604,1606,1609,1612,1615],{},[139,1605,141],{},[139,1607,1608],{},"55.84",[139,1610,1611],{},"797.5",[139,1613,1614],{},"7.00%",[139,1616,1617],{},"7.60%",[115,1619,1620,1622,1625,1628,1631],{},[139,1621,158],{},[139,1623,1624],{},"55.43",[139,1626,1627],{},"1,266.7",[139,1629,1630],{},"4.38%",[139,1632,1633],{},"8.95%",[115,1635,1636,1638,1641,1644,1647],{},[139,1637,175],{},[139,1639,1640],{},"11.08",[139,1642,1643],{},"1,497.7",[139,1645,1646],{},"0.74%",[139,1648,1649],{},"9.00%",[115,1651,1652,1654,1657,1660,1663],{},[139,1653,191],{},[139,1655,1656],{},"24.40",[139,1658,1659],{},"1,541.3",[139,1661,1662],{},"1.58%",[139,1664,1473],{},[115,1666,1667,1669,1672,1675,1678],{},[139,1668,207],{},[139,1670,1671],{},"26.65",[139,1673,1674],{},"1,637.3",[139,1676,1677],{},"1.63%",[139,1679,1680],{},"8.24%",[115,1682,1683,1685,1688,1691,1694],{},[139,1684,223],{},[139,1686,1687],{},"119.59",[139,1689,1690],{},"1,895.0",[139,1692,1693],{},"6.31%",[139,1695,1696],{},"7.40%",[115,1698,1699,1701,1704,1707,1710],{},[139,1700,239],{},[139,1702,1703],{},"108.96",[139,1705,1706],{},"2,290.4",[139,1708,1709],{},"4.76%",[139,1711,1712],{},"7.39%",[115,1714,1715,1717,1719,1722,1724],{},[139,1716,255],{},[139,1718,1308],{},[139,1720,1721],{},"2,624.7",[139,1723,1314],{},[139,1725,1726],{},"6.35%",[115,1728,1729,1731,1733,1736,1738],{},[139,1730,271],{},[139,1732,1308],{},[139,1734,1735],{},"3,056.6",[139,1737,1314],{},[139,1739,1740],{},"7.88%",[14,1742,1743],{},"查理跟我对1994年浮存金的持续增长感到非常高兴，更让人高兴的是这些资金完全是免费的。但我们今年要再次重复去年的话：尽管我们拥有出色的保险业务，但实际情况并不像目前看起来那么好。",[14,1745,1746],{},"我们之所以一再强调这一点，原因在于我们的”巨灾”再保险业务（向保险公司和再保险公司出售用于防范特大自然灾害的保单）今年再度大赚一笔。由于真正的特大灾害并不常发生，我们的巨灾业务在大多数年份都会赚很多钱，但偶尔也会遭受巨额损失。换句话说，要真正评估巨灾业务的吸引力，需要观察许多年。1994年无疑接近于最好的情形了，我们唯一的重大赔付来自一月份的加州大地震。我还要补充一点：1995年初发生的日本神户大地震，预计不会给我们造成重大损失。",[14,1748,1749],{},"巨灾保单有数量少、金额大、非标准化的特点。因此，承保这类业务所需的判断力远非汽车保险之类有海量数据可供参考的业务可比。在这方面，伯克希尔拥有一张王牌——阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain)，我们巨灾业务的经理人，他的承保技巧无人能出其右。他对我们的价值简直无法衡量。",[14,1751,1752],{},"此外，伯克希尔在巨灾业务中还有一项特殊优势——我们强大到令人生畏的财务实力，这从两方面帮助了我们。首先，一家审慎的保险公司总希望自己针对真正的特大灾害——比如纽约长岛遭受500亿美元损失的超级风暴，或者加州发生同等规模的大地震——的保障是绝对靠得住的。但这家保险公司也清楚地知道，让它不得不依赖巨灾理赔的那场灾难，同样也会导致许多再保险公司自顾不暇乃至破产。花钱买一份在你最需要它的时候恰好蒸发的保险，实在没什么意义。因此，伯克希尔能够确保在不可想象的巨灾发生后既有偿付能力又有充足流动性，这就是我们最大的竞争优势。",[14,1754,1755],{},"我们资本实力的第二个好处是：我们可以签下别人想都不敢想的巨额保单。举个例子，1994年有一家保险公司想临时买一张保额高达4亿美元的加州地震险保单，我们二话不说立刻接了下来。据我们所知，全世界除了我们之外，没有哪家公司敢以自己的账户独立承担4亿美元，或者哪怕接近这个数字的风险。",[14,1757,1758],{},"一般来说，保险经纪人会试图将大额保单拆成若干小额保单来分散承保。但即便在最好的情况下，这种安排也要花费大量时间。在这期间，需要再保险的公司不得不自己扛着它不想扛的风险，而这些风险可能严重威胁到它的生存。相比之下，在伯克希尔，对于高达5亿美元的保额，我们可以在收到报价请求的当天就给出价格。同行中没有其他人能做到这一点。",[14,1760,1761],{},"通过承接大额保单，我们显然让伯克希尔的财务业绩变得更加不平稳。但我们完全可以接受这一点：太多的保险公司（以及其他行业的企业）为了”平滑”报告收益，不惜采取次优策略。我们宁可接受波动性，因为我们相信这样做的长期回报，会高于追求可预测性所能带来的。",[14,1763,1764],{},"鉴于我们所承受的风险，阿吉特和我时刻关注着”最坏情形”——当然我们知道这很难判断，因为你完全可以想象纽约长岛飓风、加州大地震和超级巨灾X同时发生在同一年。此外，保险损失还可能伴随着非保险方面的麻烦。比如说，如果我们因为南加州大地震而承受巨额巨灾赔付，那同时我们在喜诗糖果、富国银行和联邦住宅贷款抵押公司（房地美）的持股价值也很可能大幅缩水。",[14,1766,1767],{},"综合考虑所有情况，我们认为在最坏的情况下，巨灾险的保险损失税后大约为6亿美元左右——这个数字略微超过伯克希尔其他业务的年利润。如果你对这种风险敞口感到不安，那么卖出伯克希尔股份的最佳时机就是现在——而不是等到那场不可避免的巨灾真正降临之后。",[14,1769,1770],{},"我们的巨灾业务量1995年可能会有所下降。普通保单的价格已有所回落，几年前涌入再保险市场的大量资本正在不顾价格是否合理地追逐保费。尽管如此，我们与一批重要客户保持着牢固的合作关系，他们将在1995年为我们提供可观的业务量。",[14,1772,1773],{},"伯克希尔的其他保险业务在1994年都取得了优异的成绩。罗德·埃尔德雷德 (Rod Eldred) 领导的住宅保险业务、布拉德·金斯特勒 (Brad Kinstler) 负责的工伤赔偿业务、凯泽家族 (Kizer) 经营的信用卡业务，以及唐·伍斯特 (Don Wurster) 领导的国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 传统汽车和一般责任险业务——所有这些都创造了可观的承保利润，同时也贡献了大量的浮存金。",[14,1775,1776],{},"总而言之，我们可以得出与去年相同的结论：我们拥有第一流的保险业务。虽然经营成果的波动会相当大，但这项业务的内在价值远远超出其账面价值——事实上，这个超出幅度比伯克希尔任何其他业务都要大。",[72,1778,1779],{"id":1779},"普通股投资",[14,1781,1782],{},"下面列出的是我们市值超过3亿美元的普通股投资。其中一小部分属于伯克希尔不完全控股的子公司所持有。",[109,1784,1785,1801],{},[112,1786,1787],{},[115,1788,1789,1792,1795,1798],{},[118,1790,1791],{},"股数",[118,1793,1794],{},"公司",[118,1796,1797],{},"成本 1994\u002F12\u002F31（千美元）",[118,1799,1800],{},"市值 1994\u002F12\u002F31（千美元）",[134,1802,1803,1817,1831,1845,1859,1873,1886,1900,1914,1928],{},[115,1804,1805,1808,1811,1814],{},[139,1806,1807],{},"27,759,941",[139,1809,1810],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[139,1812,1813],{},"$723,919",[139,1815,1816],{},"$818,918",[115,1818,1819,1822,1825,1828],{},[139,1820,1821],{},"20,000,000",[139,1823,1824],{},"大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC)",[139,1826,1827],{},"345,000",[139,1829,1830],{},"1,705,000",[115,1832,1833,1836,1839,1842],{},[139,1834,1835],{},"100,000,000",[139,1837,1838],{},"可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)",[139,1840,1841],{},"1,298,888",[139,1843,1844],{},"5,150,000",[115,1846,1847,1850,1853,1856],{},[139,1848,1849],{},"12,761,200",[139,1851,1852],{},"联邦住宅贷款抵押公司（房地美）",[139,1854,1855],{},"270,468",[139,1857,1858],{},"644,441",[115,1860,1861,1864,1867,1870],{},[139,1862,1863],{},"6,854,500",[139,1865,1866],{},"甘尼特公司 (Gannett)",[139,1868,1869],{},"335,216",[139,1871,1872],{},"365,002",[115,1874,1875,1878,1880,1883],{},[139,1876,1877],{},"34,250,000",[139,1879,1079],{},[139,1881,1882],{},"45,713",[139,1884,1885],{},"1,678,250",[115,1887,1888,1891,1894,1897],{},[139,1889,1890],{},"24,000,000",[139,1892,1893],{},"吉列 (Gillette)",[139,1895,1896],{},"600,000",[139,1898,1899],{},"1,797,000",[115,1901,1902,1905,1908,1911],{},[139,1903,1904],{},"19,453,300",[139,1906,1907],{},"PNC银行 (PNC Bank)",[139,1909,1910],{},"503,046",[139,1912,1913],{},"410,951",[115,1915,1916,1919,1922,1925],{},[139,1917,1918],{},"1,727,765",[139,1920,1921],{},"华盛顿邮报 (Washington Post)",[139,1923,1924],{},"9,731",[139,1926,1927],{},"418,983",[115,1929,1930,1933,1936,1939],{},[139,1931,1932],{},"6,791,218",[139,1934,1935],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo)",[139,1937,1938],{},"423,680",[139,1940,1941],{},"984,727",[14,1943,1944],{},"我们的投资仍然高度集中，理念也很简单：真正伟大的投资点子，用一小段话就能讲清楚。我们偏爱具有持久竞争优势、由能干且以股东利益为先的人所经营的企业。当一家企业确实具备这些特质，而我们又能以合理的价格买进时，就很难犯大错——当然，我们偶尔还是能成功地搞砸。",[14,1946,1947],{},"投资者应该记住：评判投资成绩的记分卡可不像奥运会跳水比赛那样计入难度系数。如果你看准了一家企业，它的价值在很大程度上取决于某个单一的、既容易理解又持久不变的关键因素，那么你的回报与你正确分析了另一个充满不断变化的复杂变量的投资相比，是一模一样的。",[14,1949,1950,1951,1955,1956,1959],{},"在买入决策上，我们只看",[1952,1953,1954],"em",{},"价格","而不",[1952,1957,1958],{},"择时","。在我们看来，因为对经济或股市的短期忧虑而放弃买入一家长期前景可以合理预期的好公司，是一件非常愚蠢的事。为什么要因为一个不知所以的猜测而放弃一个深思熟虑的决定呢？",[14,1961,1962],{},"我们在1967年买下国民保险、1972年买下喜诗糖果、1977年买下布法罗新闻报、1983年买下内布拉斯加家具店、1986年买下斯科特费泽，原因只是那些年份它们恰好可以出售，而且我们觉得价格可以接受。每一次做决策时，我们思考的都是企业未来可能会怎样，而不是道琼斯指数、美联储或经济会怎样。如果这种方法在买下整家公司时是行得通的，那么当我们通过股市买进一些优质企业的部分股权时，为什么要换一套打法呢？",[14,1964,1965],{},"在寻找新的投资标的之前，我们会优先考虑追加已有的持仓。如果一家企业曾经好到让我们愿意买进一次，那么重复这一过程很可能同样划算。我们很想增加在喜诗糖果或斯科特费泽的持股——但持股已经是100%，实在没法再加了。然而在股市中，投资者常常有大把机会追加那些自己了解并且喜欢的公司。去年我们就沿着这个方向，增持了可口可乐和美国运通的仓位。",[14,1967,1968],{},"说到美国运通，我们的渊源可以追溯到很久以前——事实上，这也符合我一贯的模式：从过去的交往中挖掘当下的投资机会。比如在1951年，盖可保险 (GEICO) 的股票占了我个人投资组合的70%，它也是我第一次卖掉的股票——那时我才20岁，还是个证券推销员（我把其中100股卖给了我的姑妈爱丽丝 (Aunt Alice)，上帝保佑她，基本上我推荐什么她就买什么）。25年后，趁着盖可保险面临倒闭危机之际，伯克希尔买下了它的一大部分股权。另一个例子是华盛顿邮报 (Washington Post)——我投资的初始资金有一半来自1940年代给该报送报纸的收入。三十年后，该公司上市两年后，伯克希尔买入了一大笔股份。至于可口可乐，我最初的”商业冒险”——那是1930年代的事了——就是花25美分买进半打可乐，然后以每瓶5美分卖出去。整整过了五十年我才恍然大悟：真正赚大钱的其实是那糖浆啊。",[14,1970,1971],{},"我在美国运通的投资历史包含好几段插曲：1960年代中期，该公司刚被臭名昭著的色拉油丑闻重创之后，我们将巴菲特合伙公司约40%的资金押在这只股票上——这是合伙公司有史以来最大的一笔投资。我得补充一句，当时这笔投入只花了1,300万美元，却让我们拥有了美国运通超过5%的股权。在我写这封信的此刻，我们持有将近10%的股权，成本为13.6亿美元。（美国运通1964年的盈利为1,250万美元，1994年则达到14亿美元。）",[14,1973,1974],{},"说到美国运通旗下的IDS部门（如今贡献了公司大约三分之一的利润），我的历史渊源更早。1953年我第一次买进IDS的股票，当时它增长迅速，市盈率却只有3倍。（那个年代低垂的果子遍地都是。）我甚至还写了一篇长篇分析报告——我写过短的吗？——在《华尔街日报》上登广告以每份1美元出售。",[14,1976,1977],{},"很显然，今天的美国运通与IDS（最近已更名为美国运通财务顾问，American Express Financial Advisors）和当年已大不相同。然而，我发现长期熟悉一家公司及其产品，对于评估它往往大有裨益。",[72,1979,1980],{"id":1980},"年度最差决策",[14,1982,1983],{},"错误在决策的那一刻就已铸成，不过我们的”年度最差决策奖”只能等到愚蠢变得无法遮掩时才能颁发。按这个标准，1994年可谓群雄逐鹿、竞争异常激烈的年份。在这里我本想告诉大家，下面这些错误都出自查理之手。但每次我试图这样解释时，我的鼻子就会跟着变长。",[14,1985,1986],{},"获得提名的有……",[14,1988,1989],{},"1993年底，我以每股63美元卖出了1,000万股大都会 (Capital Cities) 的股票；而到了1994年底，股价是85.25美元。（差额是2.225亿美元——写出来好让各位免受亲自计算的痛苦。）早在1986年我们以每股17.25美元买进大都会股票时，我就告诉过各位，我之前在1978到1980年间曾以每股4.3美元卖出过该公司的股份，而且对自己当初的行为无法自圆其说。没想到如今我又重蹈覆辙。也许是时候给我找个监护人了。",[14,1991,1992],{},"然而大都会这事虽然离谱，也只配得上一块银牌。金牌的殊荣要归于我五年前犯下、到1994年才完全”成熟”的一个错误：我们以3.58亿美元买入全美航空 (USAir) 优先股，该股的股息于九月份被停发。在1990年的年报中，我已经准确地将这笔交易定性为”非受迫性失误”——意思是没有人逼我做这笔投资，也没有人误导我。这完全是一个分析不够严谨的案例，原因可能是因为我们买的是优先证券就放松了警惕，也可能是因为自大。不管原因是什么，这是一个严重的错误。",[14,1994,1995],{},"在做这笔投资之前，我竟然没有将注意力集中在一个必然困扰航空公司的问题上——成本既高又极难降低。在早些年，这些致命的高成本还不致构成重大威胁。当时航空业受到监管保护免受竞争，航空公司可以承受高成本，因为它们可以通过同样高昂的票价转嫁出去。",[14,1997,1998],{},"解除管制初期，情况并没有立即改变：低成本航空公司的运力还太小，高成本的老牌航空公司在很大程度上仍能维持原有的票价结构。在这段时期，长期问题虽然大体上不可见但正在悄悄恶化，那些不可持续的成本变得更加根深蒂固。",[14,2000,2001],{},"随着低成本运营商的运力大幅扩张，它们的低票价开始迫使老牌高成本航空公司也不得不降价。对于这些航空公司来说，通过注入资本（比如我们对全美航空的那笔投资）可以拖延审判日的到来，但最终一条基本的经济规律占了上风：在一个不受管制的同质化商品行业中，一家公司要么将成本降至有竞争力的水平，要么面临灭亡。这个道理，身为公司董事长的我应该一清二楚，但我偏偏视而不见。",[14,2003,2004],{},"全美航空的CEO塞思·肖菲尔德 (Seth Schofield) 一直在努力纠正公司的历史成本问题，但迄今尚未成功。部分原因在于他面对的是一个不断移动的靶心——某些大型航空公司获得了劳方的让步，另一些则受益于破产程序中获得的”全新起步”成本。（正如西南航空 (Southwest Airlines) CEO赫布·凯莱赫 (Herb Kelleher) 所说：“破产法庭对航空公司来说简直成了健康水疗中心。”）此外，毫不意外的是，那些根据合同领取高于市场水准薪酬的航空公司员工，只要他们的薪水支票还能按时兑现，就会全力抵制任何减薪的提议。",[14,2006,2007],{},"尽管处境艰难，全美航空仍有可能实现所需的成本削减以维持长期生存能力。但能否做到远未可知。",[14,2009,2010],{},"因此，在1994年底我们将全美航空的投资减记至8,950万美元，仅为票面价值的25%。这一估值既反映了我们的优先股有可能全部或大部分恢复价值的可能性，也反映了它最终可能变得一文不值的可能性。不论结果如何，我们都将谨记一条投资的基本法则：你不必按照亏钱的方式把钱赚回来。",[14,2012,2013],{},"全美航空减记的会计影响有些复杂。根据通用会计准则，保险公司必须在资产负债表上以估计市场价值列示所有股票。因此，在去年第三季末，我们已经将全美航空优先股的帐列价值降至8,950万美元，即成本的25%。换句话说，我们的净资产在当时就已经反映了一个远低于3.58亿美元成本的全美航空价值。",[14,2015,2016],{},"但在第四季度，我们判定这一价值下跌从会计角度来说属于”非暂时性的”，因此必须将2.69亿美元的减记金额计入损益表。除此之外，第四季度不会再有其他影响——也就是说不会再进一步减少我们的净资产，因为价值的缩水在第三季度就已经反映了。",[14,2018,2019],{},"在即将召开的年度股东大会上，查理跟我决定不再续任全美航空的董事。当然，如果塞思希望咨询我们的意见，我们很乐意尽我们所能提供帮助。",[72,2021,2022],{"id":2022},"其他事项",[14,2024,2025],{},"去年有两位对伯克希尔股东贡献卓著的CEO退休了：大都会\u002FABC的丹·伯克 (Dan Burke) 和富国银行的卡尔·赖卡特 (Carl Reichardt)。丹和卡尔近年来都面临着各自行业的严峻挑战，但凭借出色的管理才能，他们经营的企业在困境中依然创造了创纪录的利润，赢得了更高的声望，前景也一片光明。此外，丹和卡尔都为自己的离任做了充分准备，将公司交到了出色的接班人手中。我们对他们致以深深的谢意。",[2027,2028],"hr",{},[14,2030,2031],{},"大约有95.7%的有效股权参与了伯克希尔1994年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐出的款项总计1,040万美元，惠及3,300家慈善机构。",[14,2033,2034],{},"每年都有少数股东因为没有将股份登记在本人名下，或未能在规定的60天期限内将指定捐赠表格寄回给我们，而无法参加这一计划。由于我们对不符合要求者绝不通融，因此敦促新老股东都仔细阅读年报第50-51页上关于股东指定捐赠计划的详细说明。",[14,2036,2037],{},[1952,2038,2039],{},"想要参加未来计划的股东，请务必确保您的股份登记在实际所有人名下，而非经纪人、银行或托管机构的代名下。1995年8月31日之前未完成登记的股份将无法参加1995年的计划。",[2027,2041],{},[14,2043,2044],{},"1994年我们只做了一桩小收购——一家小型鞋业零售连锁店——但我们寻找好的收购对象的热情一如既往。我们的收购和合并标准详见附录第21页。",[14,2046,2047],{},"去年春天，我们曾向一家由家族控制的大型企业提出合并提议，交易条款中包含发行伯克希尔可转换优先股。虽然最终双方未能达成协议，但这次经历让我意识到，我们需要请股东授权发行优先股，以便将来类似的收购机会出现时能够迅速行动。因此，今年的委托书中包含了一项提案，请各位授权发行大量优先股，具体条款由董事会确定。大家可以完全放心，除非我们确信所获得的内在价值与所付出的相当，否则查理和我绝不会动用这些股份。",[2027,2049],{},[14,2051,2052],{},"查理和我希望各位能来参加今年的股东大会——地点换了。去年我们稍稍超出了奥芬剧院 (Orpheum Theater) 2,750个座位的容量，因此今年我们将于1995年5月1日星期一上午9点30分在假日会议中心 (Holiday Convention Centre) 集合。会议中心的大厅可容纳3,300人，如有需要，隔壁还有一间配备视听设备的会议室，可以再容纳1,000人。",[14,2054,2055],{},"去年我们在会场上展示了一些伯克希尔的产品，结果卖出了约800磅糖果、507双鞋子以及价值超过12,000美元的世界图书百科全书及相关出版物。今年这些商品将再次登场。虽然我们愿意把这次聚会看作是一场精神洗礼，但别忘了，就连最虔诚的宗教仪式也少不了奉献环节。",[14,2057,2058],{},"当然，你们真正该买的是1995年橘子碗 (Orange Bowl) 的录像带。你们的董事长每晚都要看一遍这场经典赛事，到了第四节更要切换成慢动作回放。今年我们年报封面的颜色，是向内布拉斯加大学美式足球队教练汤姆·奥斯本 (Tom Osborne) 和他的玉米收割机队 (Cornhuskers)——全国大学冠军队——致敬。我强烈建议各位穿着收割机队的红色出席年度股东大会，我也向大家保证，你们的经营双人组至少有50%会穿对颜色。",[14,2060,2061],{},"我们建议各位尽早预订酒店，因为预计今年参会人数众多。想住在市中心（距离会场约6英里）的人可以选择拉迪森雷迪克大厦酒店 (Radisson Redick Tower)，这是一家小而精致的酒店（88间客房），几条街之外还有规模更大的红狮酒店 (Red Lion Hotel)。会场附近则有假日酒店 (Holiday Inn)（403间客房）、Homewood Suites（118间客房）和Hampton Inn（136间客房）。另一个推荐地点是万豪酒店 (Marriott)，位于奥马哈西区，离波仙珠宝店 (Borsheim’s) 只有约100码，开车到会场约10分钟。届时万豪酒店将安排巴士于8:45和9:00发车前往会场，会议结束后再送回。",[14,2063,2064],{},"随代理委托书附上的材料将说明如何获取入场所需的证件。会议中心有一大片停车场，住在Holiday Inn、Homewood Suites和Hampton Inn的人可以直接步行前往。",[14,2066,2067],{},"一如往常，会后我们会安排巴士送大家前往内布拉斯加家具店和波仙珠宝店，之后再从那里送到酒店或机场。我希望大家特别抽空参观内布拉斯加家具店，因为他们新开了超大卖场 (Mega Mart)——一个令人叹为观止的零售奇迹，出售各种电子产品、家电、电脑、CD、照相机和音响设备。自开业以来销售异常火爆，到了现场你一定会被那琳琅满目的商品和卖场的陈列方式所折服。",[14,2069,2070],{},"超大卖场就在内布拉斯加家具店主馆旁边，占地64英亩，距会场约两英里。营业时间：周五上午10点至晚上9点，周六上午10点至下午6点，周日中午至下午6点。到了那里，别忘了向101岁高龄的B夫人打声招呼，她每天都在”B夫人仓库”里辛勤工作——准确地说，是每个小时都在。",[14,2072,2073],{},"波仙珠宝店平时周日不营业，但在股东大会当天会特别为股东及来宾开放，时间为中午至下午6点。这一天总是格外特别，我们会尽量给大家带来一些惊喜。通常这也是全年营业额最高的一天——这也是查理和我希望在那里看到各位的主要原因之一。",[14,2075,2076],{},"4月29日星期六晚上，罗森布拉特体育馆 (Rosenblatt Stadium) 将有一场奥马哈皇家队 (Omaha Royals) 对阵布法罗水牛队 (Buffalo Bisons) 的棒球赛。水牛队的老板是我的好朋友明迪和小鲍勃·里奇 (Mindy and Bob Rich, Jr.)，我很希望他们能到场。如果他们来了，我会想方设法引诱鲍勃跟我在投手丘上来一场对决。鲍勃堪称资本家中的兰迪·约翰逊 (Randy Johnson)——年轻、强壮又充满运动天赋——绝对不是你在赛季初愿意碰到的对手。所以到时候我需要在座各位大力助威。",[14,2078,2079],{},"委托书中将包含如何获取比赛门票的信息。去年大约有1,400位股东出席了这场盛事。那天晚上我上场开球，使出浑身解数投出一记时速高达8英里的好球。许多球迷没注意到的是，我摇头拒绝了捕手要求投快速球的暗号，改投了我的慢速球。今年嘛，我要投的可全是火球。",[14,2081,2082],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,2084,2085],{},"董事会主席",[14,2087,2088],{},"1995年3月7日",{"title":2090,"searchDepth":2091,"depth":2091,"links":2092},"",2,[2093,2095,2096,2097,2098,2099,2100,2101,2102],{"id":74,"depth":2094,"text":74},3,{"id":443,"depth":2094,"text":443},{"id":470,"depth":2094,"text":470},{"id":500,"depth":2094,"text":500},{"id":946,"depth":2094,"text":946},{"id":1266,"depth":2094,"text":1266},{"id":1779,"depth":2094,"text":1779},{"id":1980,"depth":2094,"text":1980},{"id":2022,"depth":2094,"text":2022},"致股东信",null,"1994年巴菲特致股东信，分析投资收益、大都会ABC投资及媒体行业变革","md",{},true,65,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2105},"1994 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","1z2-hDPmW-n4I6y0szRj4GxPr3-asbjUJrJRJeH-X-0","buffett",[2118,2123,2127,2131,2134,2137,2140,2143,2146,2149,2153,2156,2159,2163,2166,2169,2173,2176,2179,2183,2186,2189,2193,2196,2199,2203,2206,2209,2213,2216,2219,2223,2226,2229,2233,2236,2239,2243,2246,2249,2253,2256,2259,2263,2266,2269,2273,2276,2279,2283,2286,2289,2293,2296,2299,2303,2306,2309,2313,2316,2319,2323,2326,2329,2333,2336,2339,2343,2346,2349,2353,2356,2359,2363,2366,2369,2373,2376,2379,2383,2386,2389,2393,2396,2399,2403,2406,2409,2413,2416,2419,2423,2426,2429,2433,2436,2439,2443,2446,2449,2453,2456,2460,2463,2467,2470,2474,2477,2481,2484,2488,2491,2495,2498,2502,2505,2509,2512,2516,2519,2523,2526,2530,2533,2537,2540,2544,2547,2551,2554,2558,2561,2565,2568,2572,2575,2579,2582,2586,2589,2593,2596,2600,2603,2607,2610,2614,2617,2621,2624,2628,2631,2635,2638,2642,2645,2649,2652,2656,2659,2663,2666,2667,2670,2674,2677,2681,2684,2688,2691,2695,2698,2702,2705,2709,2712,2716,2719,2723,2726,2730,2733,2737,2740,2744,2747,2751,2754,2758,2761,2765,2768,2772,2775,2779,2782,2786,2789,2793,2796,2800,2803,2807,2810,2814,2817,2821,2824,2828,2831,2835,2838,2842,2845,2849,2852,2856,2859,2863,2866,2870,2873,2877,2880,2884,2887,2891,2894,2898,2901,2905,2908,2912,2915,2919,2923,2927,2931,2935,2939,2943,2947,2951,2955,2959,2963,2967,2971,2975,2979,2983,2987,2991,2995,2999,3003,3007,3011,3015,3019,3023,3027,3031,3035,3039,3043,3047,3051,3055,3059,3063,3067,3071,3075,3079,3083,3087,3091,3095,3099,3103,3107,3111,3115],{"title":2119,"slug":2120,"category":2121,"order":2122},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致合伙人信",1,{"title":2124,"slug":2125,"category":2126,"order":2122},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":2128,"slug":2129,"category":2130,"order":2122},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":2132,"slug":2133,"category":2121,"order":2091},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2135,"slug":2136,"category":2126,"order":2091},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":2138,"slug":2139,"category":2130,"order":2091},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2141,"slug":2142,"category":2121,"order":2094},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2144,"slug":2145,"category":2126,"order":2094},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":2147,"slug":2148,"category":2130,"order":2094},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2150,"slug":2151,"category":2121,"order":2152},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":2154,"slug":2155,"category":2126,"order":2152},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":2157,"slug":2158,"category":2130,"order":2152},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2160,"slug":2161,"category":2121,"order":2162},"1960 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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2496,"slug":2497,"category":2126,"order":2494},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2499,"slug":2500,"category":2121,"order":2501},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2503,"slug":2504,"category":2126,"order":2501},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":2103,"order":2508},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2510,"slug":2511,"category":2126,"order":2508},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2513,"slug":2514,"category":2103,"order":2515},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2517,"slug":2518,"category":2126,"order":2515},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2520,"slug":2521,"category":2103,"order":2522},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2524,"slug":2525,"category":2126,"order":2522},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2527,"slug":2528,"category":2103,"order":2529},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2531,"slug":2532,"category":2126,"order":2529},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2534,"slug":2535,"category":2103,"order":2536},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2538,"slug":2539,"category":2126,"order":2536},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2541,"slug":2542,"category":2103,"order":2543},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2545,"slug":2546,"category":2126,"order":2543},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2548,"slug":2549,"category":2103,"order":2550},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2552,"slug":2553,"category":2126,"order":2550},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2555,"slug":2556,"category":2103,"order":2557},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2559,"slug":2560,"category":2126,"order":2557},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2562,"slug":2563,"category":2103,"order":2564},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2566,"slug":2567,"category":2126,"order":2564},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2569,"slug":2570,"category":2103,"order":2571},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2573,"slug":2574,"category":2126,"order":2571},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":2103,"order":2578},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2580,"slug":2581,"category":2126,"order":2578},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2583,"slug":2584,"category":2103,"order":2585},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2587,"slug":2588,"category":2126,"order":2585},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2590,"slug":2591,"category":2103,"order":2592},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2594,"slug":2595,"category":2126,"order":2592},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2597,"slug":2598,"category":2103,"order":2599},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2601,"slug":2602,"category":2126,"order":2599},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2604,"slug":2605,"category":2103,"order":2606},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2608,"slug":2609,"category":2126,"order":2606},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2611,"slug":2612,"category":2103,"order":2613},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2615,"slug":2616,"category":2126,"order":2613},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2618,"slug":2619,"category":2103,"order":2620},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2622,"slug":2623,"category":2126,"order":2620},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2625,"slug":2626,"category":2103,"order":2627},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2629,"slug":2630,"category":2126,"order":2627},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2632,"slug":2633,"category":2103,"order":2634},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2636,"slug":2637,"category":2126,"order":2634},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2639,"slug":2640,"category":2103,"order":2641},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2643,"slug":2644,"category":2126,"order":2641},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2646,"slug":2647,"category":2103,"order":2648},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2650,"slug":2651,"category":2126,"order":2648},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2653,"slug":2654,"category":2103,"order":2655},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2657,"slug":2658,"category":2126,"order":2655},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2660,"slug":2661,"category":2103,"order":2662},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2664,"slug":2665,"category":2126,"order":2662},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":5,"slug":2113,"category":2103,"order":2109},{"title":2668,"slug":2669,"category":2126,"order":2109},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2671,"slug":2672,"category":2103,"order":2673},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2675,"slug":2676,"category":2126,"order":2673},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2678,"slug":2679,"category":2103,"order":2680},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2682,"slug":2683,"category":2126,"order":2680},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2685,"slug":2686,"category":2103,"order":2687},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2689,"slug":2690,"category":2126,"order":2687},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2692,"slug":2693,"category":2103,"order":2694},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2696,"slug":2697,"category":2126,"order":2694},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2699,"slug":2700,"category":2103,"order":2701},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2703,"slug":2704,"category":2126,"order":2701},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2706,"slug":2707,"category":2103,"order":2708},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2710,"slug":2711,"category":2126,"order":2708},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2713,"slug":2714,"category":2103,"order":2715},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2717,"slug":2718,"category":2126,"order":2715},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2720,"slug":2721,"category":2103,"order":2722},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2724,"slug":2725,"category":2126,"order":2722},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2727,"slug":2728,"category":2103,"order":2729},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2731,"slug":2732,"category":2126,"order":2729},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2734,"slug":2735,"category":2103,"order":2736},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2738,"slug":2739,"category":2126,"order":2736},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2741,"slug":2742,"category":2103,"order":2743},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2745,"slug":2746,"category":2126,"order":2743},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2748,"slug":2749,"category":2103,"order":2750},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2752,"slug":2753,"category":2126,"order":2750},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2755,"slug":2756,"category":2103,"order":2757},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2759,"slug":2760,"category":2126,"order":2757},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2762,"slug":2763,"category":2103,"order":2764},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2766,"slug":2767,"category":2126,"order":2764},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2769,"slug":2770,"category":2103,"order":2771},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2773,"slug":2774,"category":2126,"order":2771},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2776,"slug":2777,"category":2103,"order":2778},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2780,"slug":2781,"category":2126,"order":2778},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2783,"slug":2784,"category":2103,"order":2785},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2787,"slug":2788,"category":2126,"order":2785},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2790,"slug":2791,"category":2103,"order":2792},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2794,"slug":2795,"category":2126,"order":2792},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2797,"slug":2798,"category":2103,"order":2799},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2801,"slug":2802,"category":2126,"order":2799},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2804,"slug":2805,"category":2103,"order":2806},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2808,"slug":2809,"category":2126,"order":2806},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2811,"slug":2812,"category":2103,"order":2813},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2815,"slug":2816,"category":2126,"order":2813},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2818,"slug":2819,"category":2103,"order":2820},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2822,"slug":2823,"category":2126,"order":2820},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2825,"slug":2826,"category":2103,"order":2827},"2015 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