[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":4262},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2726,"library-sidebar-dao":3728,"library-sidebar-models":4030},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2712,"date":2713,"description":2714,"extension":2715,"meta":2716,"navigation":2717,"order":2718,"path":2719,"seo":2720,"seoDescription":2714,"seoTitle":2721,"slug":2722,"stem":2723,"__hash__":2724,"_collection":2725},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2007 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2696},"minimark",[9,13,20,25,662,665,668,679,682,687,690,693,696,699,702,705,708,711,714,717,720,723,726,729,798,801,804,868,871,878,881,883,886,889,892,895,898,901,904,907,910,913,916,919,922,924,927,930,932,936,939,942,945,948,955,962,969,972,975,978,985,988,991,994,997,1000,1007,1010,1013,1015,1018,1021,1024,1027,1035,1038,1044,1046,1049,1052,1055,1058,1124,1127,1191,1194,1201,1204,1207,1210,1215,1218,1221,1224,1229,1232,1237,1240,1243,1350,1355,1358,1361,1364,1367,1370,1540,1545,1548,1551,1554,1558,1561,1566,1704,1709,1809,1814,1821,1824,1829,1832,1837,1840,1843,1846,1861,1864,1867,1875,1878,1885,1888,1891,1894,1897,1900,1903,1910,2014,2017,2020,2023,2026,2031,2385,2390,2393,2396,2399,2402,2409,2411,2414,2417,2420,2427,2430,2433,2436,2438,2441,2444,2455,2458,2469,2471,2478,2489,2492,2495,2498,2500,2503,2506,2509,2513,2516,2519,2526,2533,2536,2539,2542,2549,2552,2563,2566,2569,2576,2583,2586,2589,2592,2594,2597,2599,2605,2608,2611,2614,2621,2624,2631,2638,2641,2644,2647,2650,2653,2656,2659,2662,2665,2668,2679,2682,2684,2687,2690,2693],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2007-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"注：下表载于印刷版年度报告中，与董事长致函相对的一页，信中有所提及。",[14,21,22],{},[17,23,24],{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[26,27,28,47],"table",{},[29,30,31],"thead",{},[32,33,34,38,41,44],"tr",{},[35,36,37],"th",{},"年份",[35,39,40],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[35,42,43],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[35,45,46],{},"相对结果 (1)-(2)",[48,49,50,65,79,93,106,120,134,148,162,176,190,204,218,231,245,258,272,286,300,313,327,341,353,366,379,393,407,421,433,447,461,474,488,502,516,530,544,558,571,584,597,610,624,635,649],"tbody",{},[32,51,52,56,59,62],{},[53,54,55],"td",{},"1965",[53,57,58],{},"23.8",[53,60,61],{},"10.0",[53,63,64],{},"13.8",[32,66,67,70,73,76],{},[53,68,69],{},"1966",[53,71,72],{},"20.3",[53,74,75],{},"(11.7)",[53,77,78],{},"32.0",[32,80,81,84,87,90],{},[53,82,83],{},"1967",[53,85,86],{},"11.0",[53,88,89],{},"30.9",[53,91,92],{},"(19.9)",[32,94,95,98,101,103],{},[53,96,97],{},"1968",[53,99,100],{},"19.0",[53,102,86],{},[53,104,105],{},"8.0",[32,107,108,111,114,117],{},[53,109,110],{},"1969",[53,112,113],{},"16.2",[53,115,116],{},"(8.4)",[53,118,119],{},"24.6",[32,121,122,125,128,131],{},[53,123,124],{},"1970",[53,126,127],{},"12.0",[53,129,130],{},"3.9",[53,132,133],{},"8.1",[32,135,136,139,142,145],{},[53,137,138],{},"1971",[53,140,141],{},"16.4",[53,143,144],{},"14.6",[53,146,147],{},"1.8",[32,149,150,153,156,159],{},[53,151,152],{},"1972",[53,154,155],{},"21.7",[53,157,158],{},"18.9",[53,160,161],{},"2.8",[32,163,164,167,170,173],{},[53,165,166],{},"1973",[53,168,169],{},"4.7",[53,171,172],{},"(14.8)",[53,174,175],{},"19.5",[32,177,178,181,184,187],{},[53,179,180],{},"1974",[53,182,183],{},"5.5",[53,185,186],{},"(26.4)",[53,188,189],{},"31.9",[32,191,192,195,198,201],{},[53,193,194],{},"1975",[53,196,197],{},"21.9",[53,199,200],{},"37.2",[53,202,203],{},"(15.3)",[32,205,206,209,212,215],{},[53,207,208],{},"1976",[53,210,211],{},"59.3",[53,213,214],{},"23.6",[53,216,217],{},"35.7",[32,219,220,223,225,228],{},[53,221,222],{},"1977",[53,224,189],{},[53,226,227],{},"(7.4)",[53,229,230],{},"39.3",[32,232,233,236,239,242],{},[53,234,235],{},"1978",[53,237,238],{},"24.0",[53,240,241],{},"6.4",[53,243,244],{},"17.6",[32,246,247,250,252,255],{},[53,248,249],{},"1979",[53,251,217],{},[53,253,254],{},"18.2",[53,256,257],{},"17.5",[32,259,260,263,266,269],{},[53,261,262],{},"1980",[53,264,265],{},"19.3",[53,267,268],{},"32.3",[53,270,271],{},"(13.0)",[32,273,274,277,280,283],{},[53,275,276],{},"1981",[53,278,279],{},"31.4",[53,281,282],{},"(5.0)",[53,284,285],{},"36.4",[32,287,288,291,294,297],{},[53,289,290],{},"1982",[53,292,293],{},"40.0",[53,295,296],{},"21.4",[53,298,299],{},"18.6",[32,301,302,305,307,310],{},[53,303,304],{},"1983",[53,306,268],{},[53,308,309],{},"22.4",[53,311,312],{},"9.9",[32,314,315,318,321,324],{},[53,316,317],{},"1984",[53,319,320],{},"13.6",[53,322,323],{},"6.1",[53,325,326],{},"7.5",[32,328,329,332,335,338],{},[53,330,331],{},"1985",[53,333,334],{},"48.2",[53,336,337],{},"31.6",[53,339,340],{},"16.6",[32,342,343,346,349,351],{},[53,344,345],{},"1986",[53,347,348],{},"26.1",[53,350,299],{},[53,352,326],{},[32,354,355,358,360,363],{},[53,356,357],{},"1987",[53,359,175],{},[53,361,362],{},"5.1",[53,364,365],{},"14.4",[32,367,368,371,374,376],{},[53,369,370],{},"1988",[53,372,373],{},"20.1",[53,375,340],{},[53,377,378],{},"3.5",[32,380,381,384,387,390],{},[53,382,383],{},"1989",[53,385,386],{},"44.4",[53,388,389],{},"31.7",[53,391,392],{},"12.7",[32,394,395,398,401,404],{},[53,396,397],{},"1990",[53,399,400],{},"7.4",[53,402,403],{},"(3.1)",[53,405,406],{},"10.5",[32,408,409,412,415,418],{},[53,410,411],{},"1991",[53,413,414],{},"39.6",[53,416,417],{},"30.5",[53,419,420],{},"9.1",[32,422,423,426,428,431],{},[53,424,425],{},"1992",[53,427,72],{},[53,429,430],{},"7.6",[53,432,392],{},[32,434,435,438,441,444],{},[53,436,437],{},"1993",[53,439,440],{},"14.3",[53,442,443],{},"10.1",[53,445,446],{},"4.2",[32,448,449,452,455,458],{},[53,450,451],{},"1994",[53,453,454],{},"13.9",[53,456,457],{},"1.3",[53,459,460],{},"12.6",[32,462,463,466,469,472],{},[53,464,465],{},"1995",[53,467,468],{},"43.1",[53,470,471],{},"37.6",[53,473,183],{},[32,475,476,479,482,485],{},[53,477,478],{},"1996",[53,480,481],{},"31.8",[53,483,484],{},"23.0",[53,486,487],{},"8.8",[32,489,490,493,496,499],{},[53,491,492],{},"1997",[53,494,495],{},"34.1",[53,497,498],{},"33.4",[53,500,501],{},".7",[32,503,504,507,510,513],{},[53,505,506],{},"1998",[53,508,509],{},"48.3",[53,511,512],{},"28.6",[53,514,515],{},"19.7",[32,517,518,521,524,527],{},[53,519,520],{},"1999",[53,522,523],{},".5",[53,525,526],{},"21.0",[53,528,529],{},"(20.5)",[32,531,532,535,538,541],{},[53,533,534],{},"2000",[53,536,537],{},"6.5",[53,539,540],{},"(9.1)",[53,542,543],{},"15.6",[32,545,546,549,552,555],{},[53,547,548],{},"2001",[53,550,551],{},"(6.2)",[53,553,554],{},"(11.9)",[53,556,557],{},"5.7",[32,559,560,563,565,568],{},[53,561,562],{},"2002",[53,564,61],{},[53,566,567],{},"(22.1)",[53,569,570],{},"32.1",[32,572,573,576,578,581],{},[53,574,575],{},"2003",[53,577,526],{},[53,579,580],{},"28.7",[53,582,583],{},"(7.7)",[32,585,586,589,591,594],{},[53,587,588],{},"2004",[53,590,406],{},[53,592,593],{},"10.9",[53,595,596],{},"(.4)",[32,598,599,602,604,607],{},[53,600,601],{},"2005",[53,603,241],{},[53,605,606],{},"4.9",[53,608,609],{},"1.5",[32,611,612,615,618,621],{},[53,613,614],{},"2006",[53,616,617],{},"18.4",[53,619,620],{},"15.8",[53,622,623],{},"2.6",[32,625,626,629,631,633],{},[53,627,628],{},"2007",[53,630,86],{},[53,632,183],{},[53,634,183],{},[32,636,637,640,643,646],{},[53,638,639],{},"年复合增长率 – 1965-2007",[53,641,642],{},"21.1%",[53,644,645],{},"10.3%",[53,647,648],{},"10.8",[32,650,651,654,657,660],{},[53,652,653],{},"累计总收益 – 1964-2007",[53,655,656],{},"400,863%",[53,658,659],{},"6,840%",[53,661],{},[14,663,664],{},"注：数据为日历年度数据，以下情况除外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。",[14,666,667],{},"从1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司以市价（而非此前要求的成本与市价孰低法）对其持有的权益证券进行估值。本表中，伯克希尔1978年及之前的业绩已按变更后的准则进行了重述。其余各方面均按最初报告的数字计算。",[14,669,670,671,674,675,678],{},"标普500指数的数字为",[17,672,673],{},"税前","数据，而伯克希尔的数字为",[17,676,677],{},"税后","数据。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司仅仅持有标普500指数并缴纳相应税款，那么在该指数录得正收益的年份，其业绩将落后于标普500；而在指数录得负收益的年份，其业绩将超越标普500。长年累月下来，税收成本会导致总的落后幅度相当可观。",[680,681],"hr",{},[683,684,686],"h3",{"id":685},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,688,689],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,691,692],{},"2007年，公司净资产增加123亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值增长了11%。自现任管理层接手的43年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元成长到目前的78,008美元，年复合增长率约为21.1%。(*)",[14,694,695],{},"(*): 本报告中所有的每股数据均适用于伯克希尔A股。B股的数据为A股的三十分之一。",[14,697,698],{},"总体而言，去年我们旗下76家运营业务表现良好。少数出了问题的业务，主要与房地产相关——包括我们的砖块、地毯和房地产经纪业务。它们受到的冲击是轻微而暂时的。我们在这些业务领域的竞争地位依然强大，而且我们拥有一流的CEO在掌舵，无论年景好坏，他们都能把公司经营好。",[14,700,701],{},"然而，一些大型金融机构却遭遇了触目惊心的问题，因为它们深陷我去年信中所描述的”放松的放贷标准”之中。富国银行（Wells Fargo）CEO约翰·斯坦普夫（John Stumpf）对许多放贷机构近来的行为做了一针见血的解剖：“有趣的是，旧的赔钱方法还好端端的，这个行业偏要发明新的赔钱方法。”",[14,703,704],{},"你们可能还记得2003年硅谷有一条很火的车尾贴纸，上面写着：“上帝啊，求你再来一个泡沫吧。”不幸的是，这个愿望很快就灵验了——几乎所有美国人都开始坚信房价会永远上涨。这种信念让借款人的收入和自有资金在放贷者眼中变得无足轻重，他们大把大把地往外撒钱，深信”HPA”——房价增值——能治好一切毛病。今天，我们的国家正因为这种错误的信念而饱受煎熬。随着房价下跌，大量愚蠢的金融行为被曝光。只有退潮的时候，你才知道谁在裸泳——而我们在一些最大金融机构所目睹的景象，实在是惨不忍睹。",[14,706,707],{},"说点让人高兴的事。伯克希尔最新收购的两家大公司——TTI和伊斯卡（Iscar），在各自CEO保罗·安德鲁斯（Paul Andrews）和雅各布·哈帕兹（Jacob Harpaz）的领导下，2007年表现出色。伊斯卡是我见过的最令人叹为观止的制造企业，去年我就说过这话，秋天去造访了它在韩国的那家非凡工厂之后，我的印象更加深刻了。",[14,709,710],{},"最后，我们的保险业务——伯克希尔的基石——这一年交出了漂亮的成绩单。部分原因在于，我们拥有全行业最好的一批保险经理人——稍后再详述。但我们在2007年也确实很走运，这是连续第二个没有重大保险灾害发生的年头。",[14,712,713],{},"不过，盛宴已经结束了。有一点是确定无疑的：整个保险业的利润率，包括我们在内，2008年将显著下滑。保费在下降，风险敞口却在无情地扩大。即使美国连续第三年没有重大灾害，行业利润率也可能收窄大约4个百分点。如果飓风来袭或大地震颤，结果会更加糟糕。所以，要对未来几年较低的保险收益做好心理准备。",[683,715,716],{"id":716},"评判标准",[14,718,719],{},"伯克希尔的价值主要源于两大板块。第一块是我们的投资：股票、债券和现金等价物。年底时，这些投资总计1,410亿美元（不包括金融和公用事业子公司持有的投资，那些我们归入第二块价值中）。",[14,721,722],{},"保险浮存金——在保险业务中我们暂时持有、但并不属于我们的资金——为我们的投资提供了590亿美元的资金来源。只要保险承保能做到盈亏平衡，浮存金就是”免费”的，也就是说，我们收取的保费与我们承担的损失和费用相当。当然，保险承保的波动性很大，在盈利和亏损之间来回摆动。然而纵观我们的全部历史，总体是盈利的，我预计未来我们平均能做到至少不亏损，甚至更好。如果能做到这一点，我们的投资就可以被视为伯克希尔股东们无任何负担的价值来源。",[14,724,725],{},"伯克希尔价值的第二块，是来自投资和保险以外的收益。这些收益由我们66家非保险公司创造。在早年，我们把重点放在投资上。然而过去二十年来，我们越来越重视发展非保险业务的收益。",[14,727,728],{},"下面的表格展示了这种变迁。首先，我们以14年为周期，列出每股投资金额。少数股东权益已予以剔除。",[26,730,731,746],{},[29,732,733],{},[32,734,735,737,740,743],{},[35,736,37],{},[35,738,739],{},"每股投资金额",[35,741,742],{},"期间",[35,744,745],{},"每股投资金额年复合增长率",[48,747,748,759,772,785],{},[32,749,750,752,755,757],{},[53,751,55],{},[53,753,754],{},"$ 4",[53,756],{},[53,758],{},[32,760,761,763,766,769],{},[53,762,249],{},[53,764,765],{},"577",[53,767,768],{},"1965-1979",[53,770,771],{},"42.8%",[32,773,774,776,779,782],{},[53,775,437],{},[53,777,778],{},"13,961",[53,780,781],{},"1979-1993",[53,783,784],{},"25.6%",[32,786,787,789,792,795],{},[53,788,628],{},[53,790,791],{},"90,343",[53,793,794],{},"1993-2007",[53,796,797],{},"14.3%",[14,799,800],{},"在整个42年里，我们每股投资金额的年复合增长率为27.1%。但随着我们越来越多地将可用资金用于收购整家运营企业，这一增速一直在下降。",[14,802,803],{},"以下是我们非保险业务收益的增长记录，同样按每股计算并扣除少数股东权益。",[26,805,806,820],{},[29,807,808],{},[32,809,810,812,815,817],{},[35,811,37],{},[35,813,814],{},"每股税前收益",[35,816,742],{},[35,818,819],{},"每股税前收益年复合增长率",[48,821,822,832,844,856],{},[32,823,824,826,828,830],{},[53,825,55],{},[53,827,754],{},[53,829],{},[53,831],{},[32,833,834,836,839,841],{},[53,835,249],{},[53,837,838],{},"18",[53,840,768],{},[53,842,843],{},"11.1%",[32,845,846,848,851,853],{},[53,847,437],{},[53,849,850],{},"212",[53,852,781],{},[53,854,855],{},"19.1%",[32,857,858,860,863,865],{},[53,859,628],{},[53,861,862],{},"4,093",[53,864,794],{},[53,866,867],{},"23.5%",[14,869,870],{},"整个期间的年复合增长率为17.8%，而且随着我们重心的转移，增长速度在加快。",[14,872,873,874],{},"尽管这些表格能帮助你们了解历史全貌，也有助于估值，但它们对于预测未来的可能性完全具有误导性。",[875,876,877],"em",{},"伯克希尔过去的纪录是不可能被复制的，甚至连接近都做不到。我们的资产和收益基数现在太大了，不可能再取得超常的增长。",[14,879,880],{},"我在伯克希尔的合伙人查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）和我，将继续用刚才描述的两把标尺来衡量我们的进展，并定期向你们汇报结果。尽管我们不可能接近复制过去的纪录，但我们会尽最大努力，确保未来不会让人失望。",[680,882],{},[14,884,885],{},"在这份努力中，加入伯克希尔的经理人们给了我们巨大的助力。在好几个方面，这都是一个非同寻常的群体。首先，他们中大多数人在经济上根本不需要工作。许多人把企业卖给我们时获得了大笔资金，之所以继续经营，纯粹因为乐在其中，而非需要钱。他们当然希望获得合理的薪酬，但金钱本身绝不是他们如此辛勤而富有成效地工作的原因。",[14,887,888],{},"其次，也与此相关的一点是，这些经理人做的恰恰是他们余生想做的工作。在几乎任何其他公司，最高层以下的关键经理人都渴望继续往上爬。对他们来说，当前管理的子公司或事业部只是一个中转站——至少他们希望如此。事实上，如果五年后他们还在目前的位置上，他们很可能会觉得自己是个失败者。",[14,890,891],{},"相比之下，我们的CEO衡量成功的标准，不是能否坐上我的位子，而是他们企业的长期业绩表现。他们的决策出自一种”今天在这里，永远在这里”的心态。我认为，我们这种罕见而难以复制的管理架构，赋予了伯克希尔真正的竞争优势。",[683,893,894],{"id":894},"收购",[14,896,897],{},"尽管我们的经理人可能是最棒的，要实现我们期望的运营收益增长，仍然需要大型而明智的收购。在这方面，我们直到2007年底才有所斩获。圣诞节那天，查理和我签下了伯克希尔历史上最大的一笔现金收购，总算为自己挣到了当年的薪水。",[14,899,900],{},"这笔交易的种子早在1954年就播下了。那年秋天，我到新工作岗位才三个月，就被老板本杰明·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）和杰瑞·纽曼（Jerry Newman）派去参加布鲁克林洛克伍德巧克力（Rockwood Chocolate）公司的股东大会。一个年轻人不久前刚刚取得了这家可可制品公司的控制权。他随即发起了一次史无前例的收购要约——用80磅可可豆换一股洛克伍德的股票。我在1988年的年度报告中描述过这笔交易，解释了其中的套利逻辑。我还告诉你们，杰伊·普利兹克（Jay Pritzker）——就是上面提到的那个年轻人——正是这个避税妙招背后的商业天才，而这个点子逃过了所有其他想过收购洛克伍德的专家的眼睛，包括我的两位老板——本和杰瑞。",[14,902,903],{},"在那次股东大会上，杰伊为人友善，给我上了一堂关于1954年税法的课。我离开时对他印象深刻。此后，我热切地追踪杰伊的各项商业活动，数量繁多而且个个出色。他最得力的合伙人是他的兄弟鲍勃（Bob），鲍勃经营马蒙集团（Marmon Group）将近50年——那里是普利兹克家族大部分企业的大本营。",[14,905,906],{},"杰伊于1999年去世，鲍勃在2002年初退休。大约在那个时候，普利兹克家族决定逐步出售或重组旗下的部分资产，其中包括马蒙集团——一家通过9个业务板块运营着125项业务的公司。马蒙最大的业务是联合槽罐车公司（Union Tank Car），连同其加拿大分公司，共拥有9.4万辆铁路槽罐车，出租给各类托运人。这支车队的原始成本为51亿美元。总体而言，马蒙拥有70亿美元的销售额和大约2万名员工。",[14,908,909],{},"我们不久将收购马蒙60%的股份，并将在六年内收购其余几乎全部股份。初始支出为45亿美元，后续收购的价格将根据一个与收益挂钩的公式确定。在我们介入之前，普利兹克家族已经从马蒙集团的现金分配、投资和部分业务出售中获得了可观的回报。",[14,911,912],{},"这笔交易的方式正合杰伊的心意。我们仅凭马蒙的财务报表就确定了价格，没有聘请顾问，也没有斤斤计较。我知道这家公司会和普利兹克家族描述的完全一致，他们也知道无论金融市场多么混乱，我们都会准时交割。过去一年里，许多大型交易被重新谈判或彻底取消了。但对普利兹克家族来说，就像对伯克希尔一样，一言为定。",[14,914,915],{},"马蒙的CEO弗兰克·普塔克（Frank Ptak），与其长期搭档约翰·尼科尔斯（John Nichols）密切合作。约翰曾是伊利诺伊工具（Illinois Tool Works, ITW）非常出色的CEO，在那里他与弗兰克搭档管理一系列多元化的工业业务。去看看他们在ITW的业绩记录，你一定会印象深刻。",[14,917,918],{},"高盛的拜伦·特罗特（Byron Trott）——我在2003年的报告中曾大力赞扬过他——促成了这笔马蒙交易。拜伦是那种极其罕见的投资银行家：他能真正站在客户的立场上思考问题。查理和我百分之百地信任他。",[14,920,921],{},"你们会喜欢高盛为这笔交易取的代号。马蒙在1902年进入汽车行业，1933年退出。期间它制造了Wasp汽车，赢得了1911年首次举办的印第安纳波利斯500大赛。所以这笔交易被命名为”印地500”。",[680,923],{},[14,925,926],{},"2006年5月，我在我们位于西雅图的本布里奇珠宝连锁店（Ben Bridge）的一次午餐会上发言。听众中有不少供应商，其中包括丹尼斯·乌尔里希（Dennis Ulrich），他拥有一家金饰制造公司。",[14,928,929],{},"2007年1月，丹尼斯给我打电话，提出如果有伯克希尔的支持，他可以打造出一家大型珠宝供应商。我们很快就达成了交易，同时收购了另一家规模相当的公司。新公司命名为瑞奇莱集团（Richline Group），此后又进行了两笔较小的收购。即便如此，瑞奇莱的收益仍远低于我们通常要求的收购门槛。不过我敢打赌，丹尼斯在搭档戴夫·梅莱斯基（Dave Meleski）的协助下，一定能建立起一家大型企业，从投入的资本中赚取可观的回报。",[680,931],{},[683,933,935],{"id":934},"企业出色的良好的糟糕的","企业：出色的、良好的、糟糕的",[14,937,938],{},"让我们来看看什么样的企业能让我们兴奋不已。同时，我们也来谈谈我们极力想避开的是哪类企业。",[14,940,941],{},"查理和我寻找的公司需要满足以下条件：a) 我们能理解的业务；b) 良好的长期经济前景；c) 有能力且值得信赖的管理层；d) 合理的价格。我们倾向于买下整家公司，或者在管理层成为我们合伙人的情况下，至少收购80%的股份。如果无法以控股方式收购优质企业，我们也很乐意通过股票市场买入卓越公司的一小部分股权。拥有”希望之钻”（世界上最著名的蓝色巨钻）的一小部分权益，也远胜过拥有一整颗假钻石。",[14,943,944],{},"一家真正伟大的企业必须拥有一条持久的”护城河“，保护其投入资本获得丰厚回报。资本主义的竞争活力决定了，任何赚取高回报的商业”城堡”都会遭到竞争对手一波又一波的进攻。因此，一道难以逾越的屏障是企业持续成功的根本保障——比如成为低成本生产商（盖可保险、好市多），或者拥有强大的全球品牌（可口可乐、吉列、美国运通）。商业史上充斥着”罗马烟火筒”式的公司——它们的”护城河”最终被证明是海市蜃楼，转眼就被对手跨越了。",[14,946,947],{},"我们对”持久性”的评判标准，把那些处在快速而持续变化行业中的公司排除在外。尽管资本主义的”创造性破坏”对社会大有裨益，但它排除了投资的确定性。一条需要不断重建的护城河，最终等于没有护城河。",[14,949,950,951,954],{},"此外，这个标准也排除了成功",[875,952,953],{},"依赖","某位伟大管理者的企业。当然，一个出色的CEO对任何企业都是一笔巨大的财富，在伯克希尔，我们拥有相当多这样的经理人。他们的才能创造了数十亿美元的价值，换作平庸的CEO来经营，这些价值永远不会实现。",[14,956,957,958,961],{},"但如果一个企业",[875,959,960],{},"需要","一个超级明星才能取得卓越成果，那这个企业本身就算不上伟大。由你所在地区首席脑外科医生领导的医疗合伙公司，可能享有可观且增长的收入，但这说明不了它的未来。外科医生一走，合伙公司的”护城河“也就跟着消失了。即使你叫不出梅奥诊所（Mayo Clinic，美国最好的医院之一）CEO的名字，你也能确信它的”护城河”会持续很久。",[14,963,964,965,968],{},"我们在企业中寻找的，是稳定行业中的长期竞争优势。如果这种优势还伴随着快速的有机增长，那当然太好了。但即使没有有机增长，这样的企业也很值得拥有。我们只需把这些企业源源不断的丰厚利润拿出来，去别处收购类似的企业就行了。没有哪条规矩说你必须把钱投回赚到钱的地方。事实上，这样做通常是个错误：真正伟大的企业，从有形资产中赚取巨大回报，但在任何较长时期内，都",[875,966,967],{},"无法","将大部分利润以高回报率在内部再投资。",[14,970,971],{},"让我们来看看这种梦幻般生意的原型——我们自己的喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）。它所经营的盒装巧克力行业并不令人兴奋：美国的人均消费量非常低，而且毫无增长。许多一度声名显赫的品牌早已消失，过去40年里只有三家公司赚到了超过象征性的利润。事实上我认为，尽管喜诗的收入大部分来自寥寥几个州，它却占到了整个行业将近一半的利润。",[14,973,974],{},"1972年蓝筹印花（Blue Chip Stamps）公司买下喜诗糖果时，它的年销售量为1,600万磅。（那时查理和我控制着蓝筹印花，后来将其并入伯克希尔。）去年喜诗卖了3,100万磅糖果，年增长率仅为2%。然而，由See’s家族在50多年里建立起来的持久竞争优势，后来又被查克·哈金斯（Chuck Huggins）和布拉德·金斯特勒（Brad Kinstler）进一步巩固，为伯克希尔创造了非凡的回报。",[14,976,977],{},"我们以2,500万美元买下喜诗时，它的销售额为3,000万美元，税前利润不到500万美元。当时经营这家企业需要的资本是800万美元。（每年有几个月还需要少量的季节性借款。）因此，公司的投入资本税前回报率高达60%。有两个因素帮助将运营资金需求降到最低。第一，产品以现金销售，消除了应收账款。第二，生产和分销周期很短，使得存货极少。",[14,979,980,981,984],{},"去年喜诗的销售额为3.83亿美元，税前利润为8,200万美元。目前经营这家企业需要的资本为4,000万美元。这意味着自1972年以来，我们仅需再投入区区3,200万美元，就足以支撑业务的适度实际增长——以及颇为可观的财务增长。与此同时，税前利润总计达到了13.5亿美元。除去这3,200万美元，",[875,982,983],{},"所有利润","都回流到了伯克希尔（或早些年回流到蓝筹印花）。在缴纳了公司所得税之后，我们用余下的钱去收购了其他有吸引力的企业。就像亚当和夏娃开创了那项最终孕育出60亿人的活动一样，喜诗糖果为我们催生了一条条新的现金流。（圣经中”多子多孙”的训诫，在伯克希尔我们是认真执行的。）",[14,986,987],{},"在美国企业界，像喜诗这样的生意并不多见。通常来说，一家公司要把利润从500万美元提升到8,200万美元，大约需要4亿美元左右的资本投入来支撑增长。这是因为成长中的企业，既有与销售额增长成比例增加的营运资金需求，也有大量的固定资产投资需求。",[14,989,990],{},"一家需要大幅增加资本投入来推动增长的公司，也完全可能是一笔令人满意的投资。接着我们的例子来看，以4亿美元的有形资产净值赚到8,200万美元的税前利润，这也相当不错。但对于股东而言，这和喜诗的情况完全不可同日而语。远远更好的是——在几乎不需要什么资本投入的情况下，就能获得源源不断、持续增长的收益。不信的话，去问问微软或谷歌！",[14,992,993],{},"一个良好但远非出色的生意案例，是我们自己的飞安公司（FlightSafety）。这家公司为客户创造的价值，在我所知的企业中首屈一指。它还拥有持久的竞争优势：接受飞行训练时舍弃最好的公司而选择其他公司，就像做外科手术时选择出价最低的医生一样。",[14,995,996],{},"然而，这家企业如果要增长，就必须将收益的很大一部分再投回去。1996年我们买下飞安时，它的税前经营收益为1.11亿美元，固定资产净投资为5.7亿美元。自收购以来，折旧费用总计9.23亿美元，但资本支出总计高达16.35亿美元，其中大部分用于购买飞行训练模拟器，以适配不断推出的新型飞机。（一台模拟器的成本可能超过1,200万美元，我们有273台。）目前我们的固定资产净值为10.79亿美元。2007年税前经营收益为2.7亿美元，比1996年增加了1.59亿美元。这个增长相对于我们5.09亿美元的增量投资来说，回报不错，但和喜诗糖果的回报率完全没法比。",[14,998,999],{},"因此，如果纯粹以经济回报来衡量，飞安是一家优秀但绝非卓越的企业。这种”投得多才能赚得多”的模式，正是大多数企业面临的现实。比如我们在受监管的公用事业领域的大额投资就属于这一类。十年后我们将从这些业务中赚到相当多的钱，但我们需要投入数十亿美元才能做到。",[14,1001,1002,1003,1006],{},"现在让我们来看看糟糕的生意。最糟糕的企业是那种收入增长迅速、需要巨额资本来推动增长、最后却赚不到什么钱甚至亏钱的企业。想想航空业吧。自从莱特兄弟的年代以来，这个行业所谓的",[875,1004,1005],{},"持久","竞争优势就被证明是子虚乌有。事实上，假如当年在基蒂霍克（Kitty Hawk，莱特兄弟首飞之地）有一位深谋远虑的资本家在场，他最大的善举就是把奥维尔·莱特打下来（Orville Wright，莱特兄弟之一），好给后来的投资者帮个大忙。",[14,1008,1009],{},"自首次飞行以来，航空业对资本的胃口就永无止境。投资者被增长所吸引，纷纷把钱倒进一个无底洞——而他们本该见到增长就掉头跑的。令我惭愧的是，1989年我让伯克希尔买入全美航空（U.S. Air）的优先股时，也犯了这种蠢事。我们付款支票上的墨迹还没干，公司就开始走下坡路，不久便停付了我们的优先股股息。不过后来我们走了大运。在又一轮——而且一如既往被误导的——对航空股的乐观情绪爆发中，我们1998年竟然卖掉了所持股份，大赚了一笔。在我们卖出后的十年里，这家公司破产了。两次。",[14,1011,1012],{},"总结一下，可以把企业想象成三种”储蓄账户”。伟大的账户支付超高利率，而且随着时间推移利率还会不断上升。良好的账户支付不错的利率，追加存款也能获得同样的回报。最后，糟糕的账户利率低得可怜，还要求你不断往里面添钱，去换取那些令人失望的回报。",[680,1014],{},[14,1016,1017],{},"现在到了忏悔时间。必须声明的是，没有哪个咨询顾问、董事会或投资银行家把我推进了接下来要描述的那些错误。用网球术语说，它们全都是非受迫性失误。",[14,1019,1020],{},"先从我差点搞砸收购喜诗糖果说起。当时卖方开价3,000万美元，而我死咬着不肯超过2,500万美元。幸运的是，他让步了。否则的话，我一犹豫，这13.5亿美元的利润就落入别人口袋了。",[14,1022,1023],{},"大约在收购喜诗的同一时期，当时管理大都会广播公司（Capital Cities Broadcasting）的汤姆·墨菲（Tom Murphy）打来电话，提议我以3,500万美元买下达拉斯-沃斯堡（Dallas-Fort Worth）的NBC电视台。这家电视台随大都会要收购的沃斯堡报纸附带而来，根据”交叉持股”的规定，墨菲必须将其剥离。我知道电视台和喜诗糖果一样，是那种几乎不需要什么资本投入就有可观增长前景的好生意。它们经营起来简简单单，而且现金哗哗地流向股东。",[14,1025,1026],{},"而且，墨菲当时跟现在一样是我的至交好友，我钦佩他既是卓越的管理者又是杰出的人。他对电视这门生意了如指掌，除非他确信这笔收购一定会成功，否则不会打电话给我。实际上，墨菲就差在我耳边低声说”买！“了。可我偏偏没听。",[14,1028,1029,1030,1034],{},"2006年，这家电视台赚了7,300万美元税前利润，从我拒绝那笔交易至今累计赚了至少10亿美元——几乎全部可以由股东自由支配。而且如今这家公司的资本价值约为8亿美元。我为什么要说”不”呢？唯一的解释就是，我的大脑跑去度假了却忘了通知我。（我的行为就像政治评论家莫莉·艾文斯 ",[1031,1032,1033],"span",{},"Molly Ivins"," 曾经描述的某位政客：“如果他的智商再低一点儿，你就得每天给他浇两次水了。”）",[14,1036,1037],{},"最后，我犯了一个更大的错误——我对德克斯特鞋业（Dexter）说了”行”。这是1993年我用价值4.33亿美元的伯克希尔股票（25,203股A股）收购的一家制鞋公司。我当时评估的持久竞争优势，在短短几年内就烟消云散了。但这只是开头：由于我用的是伯克希尔的股票，我把这个错误成倍放大了。这次交易对伯克希尔股东的成本不是4亿美元，而是35亿美元。实质上，我拿出了一家绝妙企业——如今价值2,200亿美元——的1.6%，去换了一家一文不值的公司。",[14,1039,1040,1043],{},[875,1041,1042],{},"截至目前","，德克斯特是我做过的最糟糕的交易。但将来我还会犯更多错误——你尽管押注。鲍比·贝尔（Bobby Bare）的一首乡村歌曲里有句歌词，恰好解释了收购中为什么总会出这种事：“我这辈子从没跟丑女人上过床，但醒来的时候身边肯定总有几个。”",[680,1045],{},[14,1047,1048],{},"现在让我们来审视伯克希尔的四大运营板块。每个板块的资产负债表和损益表特征都截然不同。因此，把它们合并在一起会妨碍分析。所以我们把它们当作四个独立的企业来呈现，这也是查理和我看待它们的方式。",[683,1050,1051],{"id":1051},"保险业务",[14,1053,1054],{},"这次总统大选中我听到的最妙的段子来自米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney），他问太太安（Ann）：“咱们年轻的时候，你有没有在最疯狂的梦里想过我可能当总统？”安回答说：“亲爱的，在我最疯狂的梦里，根本就没有你。”",[14,1056,1057],{},"1967年我们刚进入财产意外险领域时，就算在我最疯狂的梦里，也不曾想象过我们今天的规模。买下国民保险公司（National Indemnity）后的头五年，客气点说，我们起步很慢：",[26,1059,1060,1072],{},[29,1061,1062],{},[32,1063,1064,1066,1069],{},[35,1065,37],{},[35,1067,1068],{},"承保利润（损失）（百万美元）",[35,1070,1071],{},"浮存金（百万美元）",[48,1073,1074,1084,1094,1104,1114],{},[32,1075,1076,1078,1081],{},[53,1077,83],{},[53,1079,1080],{},"$ 0.4",[53,1082,1083],{},"$ 18.5",[32,1085,1086,1088,1091],{},[53,1087,97],{},[53,1089,1090],{},"0.6",[53,1092,1093],{},"21.3",[32,1095,1096,1098,1101],{},[53,1097,110],{},[53,1099,1100],{},"0.1",[53,1102,1103],{},"25.4",[32,1105,1106,1108,1111],{},[53,1107,124],{},[53,1109,1110],{},"(0.4)",[53,1112,1113],{},"39.4",[32,1115,1116,1118,1121],{},[53,1117,138],{},[53,1119,1120],{},"1.4",[53,1122,1123],{},"65.6",[14,1125,1126],{},"但后来情况变了。看看最近五年的记录：",[26,1128,1129,1139],{},[29,1130,1131],{},[32,1132,1133,1135,1137],{},[35,1134,37],{},[35,1136,1068],{},[35,1138,1071],{},[48,1140,1141,1151,1161,1171,1181],{},[32,1142,1143,1145,1148],{},[53,1144,575],{},[53,1146,1147],{},"$ 1,718",[53,1149,1150],{},"$ 44,220",[32,1152,1153,1155,1158],{},[53,1154,588],{},[53,1156,1157],{},"1,551",[53,1159,1160],{},"46,094",[32,1162,1163,1165,1168],{},[53,1164,601],{},[53,1166,1167],{},"53",[53,1169,1170],{},"49,287",[32,1172,1173,1175,1178],{},[53,1174,614],{},[53,1176,1177],{},"3,838",[53,1179,1180],{},"50,887",[32,1182,1183,1185,1188],{},[53,1184,628],{},[53,1186,1187],{},"3,374",[53,1189,1190],{},"58,698",[14,1192,1193],{},"这场蜕变靠的是一些出色的经理人。让我们看看他们各自取得了什么成就。",[1195,1196,1197],"ul",{},[1198,1199,1200],"li",{},"在我们所有的保险公司中，盖可保险（GEICO）拥有最宽的”护城河“，在CEO托尼·奈斯利（Tony Nicely）的精心维护和拓展下不断加宽。去年，GEICO再次在主要车险公司中录得最佳增长纪录，市场份额升至7.2%。1995年伯克希尔取得控制权时，这个份额只有2.5%。并非巧合的是，同期GEICO的年度广告支出也从3,100万美元升至7.51亿美元。",[14,1202,1203],{},"托尼今年64岁，18岁就加入了GEICO。此后的每一天，他都对公司充满热忱——为GEICO既能帮客户省钱、又能给员工提供发展机会而自豪。即使如今年销售额已达120亿美元，托尼依然觉得GEICO才刚刚起步。我也这么认为。",[14,1205,1206],{},"这里有些证据。过去三年，GEICO在摩托车市场的份额从2.1%升至6%。我们最近还开始承保全地形车和房车的保险。11月份，我们签出了第一份商业车辆保单。GEICO和国民保险公司正联手进军商业车险领域，初期成果非常令人鼓舞。",[14,1208,1209],{},"即便加在一起，这些新业务线也只占我们个人车险业务量的很小一部分。尽管如此，它们应该能带来日益增长的承保利润和浮存金。",[1195,1211,1212],{},[1198,1213,1214],{},"通用再保险（General Re），我们的国际再保险业务，是迄今为止我们”自产”浮存金的最大来源——年底达到230亿美元。这项业务如今是伯克希尔的一笔巨大资产。不过，我们的拥有之路可谓提心吊胆。",[14,1216,1217],{},"数十年来，通用再保险被视为再保险业的”蒂芙尼”（Tiffany），因其承保技艺和纪律受到所有人推崇。不幸的是，这份名声已经名不副实了，而1998年我决定与通用再保险合并时，完全没有看穿这个缺陷。1998年的通用再保险，已经不是1968年或1978年的那个通用再保险了。",[14,1219,1220],{},"现在，多亏了通用再保险的CEO乔·布兰登（Joe Brandon）和他的搭档塔德·蒙特罗斯（Tad Montross），公司已经恢复了往日的光彩。乔和塔德掌管公司六年了，套用J.P.摩根的话：他们一直在用一流的方式做一流的生意。他们恢复了承保纪律、严格了准备金提取，并审慎地筛选客户。",[14,1222,1223],{},"美国国内和海外遗留下来的问题既费钱又费时，让他们的工作更加艰难。尽管如此，乔和塔德在交出出色承保业绩的同时，还巧妙地为公司的未来进行了重新定位。",[1195,1225,1226],{},[1198,1227,1228],{},"阿吉特·贾恩（Ajit Jain）自1986年加入伯克希尔以来，白手起家建立了一个真正伟大的专业再保险业务。如今只要是那种独一无二的巨额交易，全世界都会找他。",[14,1230,1231],{},"去年我曾详细告诉你们，Equitas向伯克希尔转让了一笔金额巨大但设有赔付上限的负债，为此支付了71亿美元的一次性保费。在这个尚属初期的阶段，我们的经验还不错。但这说明不了太多问题，因为它不过是一棵要经历五十年甚至更长风吹雨打的稻草。不过我们可以确定的是，以斯科特·莫泽（Scott Moser）为首加入我们的伦敦团队是一流的，已经成为我们保险业务的一笔宝贵资产。",[1195,1233,1234],{},[1198,1235,1236],{},"最后，我们还有一些较小的保险业务，服务于保险市场的细分领域。总体而言，这些公司表现出奇地好，赚取了高于平均水平的承保利润，并为投资提供了宝贵的浮存金。",[14,1238,1239],{},"去年，比尔·奥克森（Bill Oakerson）领导的美国船东协会（BoatU.S.）加入了这个团队。这家公司管理着一个约有65万船主组成的协会，为他们提供类似于AAA汽车俱乐部为驾驶者提供的服务。协会的服务项目之一就是船只保险。想更多了解这项业务，欢迎在年度股东大会上参观他们的展位。",[14,1241,1242],{},"下面是我们四类财产意外险业务的业绩记录。",[26,1244,1245,1263],{},[29,1246,1247],{},[32,1248,1249,1251,1254,1257,1260],{},[35,1250,1051],{},[35,1252,1253],{},"2007承保利润（损失）（百万美元）",[35,1255,1256],{},"2006承保利润（损失）（百万美元）",[35,1258,1259],{},"2007年末浮存金（百万美元）",[35,1261,1262],{},"2006年末浮存金（百万美元）",[48,1264,1265,1282,1299,1316,1333],{},[32,1266,1267,1270,1273,1276,1279],{},[53,1268,1269],{},"通用再保险",[53,1271,1272],{},"$ 555",[53,1274,1275],{},"$ 526",[53,1277,1278],{},"$ 23,009",[53,1280,1281],{},"$ 22,827",[32,1283,1284,1287,1290,1293,1296],{},[53,1285,1286],{},"伯克希尔再保险",[53,1288,1289],{},"1,427",[53,1291,1292],{},"1,658",[53,1294,1295],{},"23,692",[53,1297,1298],{},"16,860",[32,1300,1301,1304,1307,1310,1313],{},[53,1302,1303],{},"GEICO",[53,1305,1306],{},"1,113",[53,1308,1309],{},"1,314",[53,1311,1312],{},"7,768",[53,1314,1315],{},"7,171",[32,1317,1318,1321,1324,1327,1330],{},[53,1319,1320],{},"其他直保业务",[53,1322,1323],{},"279",[53,1325,1326],{},"340*",[53,1328,1329],{},"4,229",[53,1331,1332],{},"4,029*",[32,1334,1335,1338,1341,1344,1347],{},[53,1336,1337],{},"合计",[53,1339,1340],{},"$ 3,374",[53,1342,1343],{},"$ 3,838",[53,1345,1346],{},"$ 58,698",[53,1348,1349],{},"$ 50,887",[1195,1351,1352],{},[1198,1353,1354],{},"包括2006年5月19日起并入的Applied Underwriters。",[683,1356,1357],{"id":1357},"受监管的公用事业业务",[14,1359,1360],{},"伯克希尔持有中美能源控股（MidAmerican Energy Holdings）87.4%的股权（稀释后），旗下拥有种类繁多的公用事业业务。其中最大的包括：(1) 约克郡电力和北方电力（Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric），拥有380万电力用户，是英国第三大电力分销商；(2) 中美能源（MidAmerican Energy），主要在爱荷华州服务72万电力用户；(3) 太平洋电力和洛基山电力（Pacific Power and Rocky Mountain Power），在美国西部6个州服务约170万电力用户；(4) 科恩河和北方天然管道（Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines），输送全美约8%的天然气消耗量。",[14,1362,1363],{},"我们在中美能源的合伙人是沃尔特·斯科特（Walter Scott），以及两位杰出的经理人戴夫·索科尔（Dave Sokol）和格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）。各方拥有多少投票权并不重要；只有当我们一致认为某个重大决策是明智的，才会付诸行动。与戴夫、格雷格和沃尔特共事八年，更加坚定了我最初的信念：伯克希尔不可能找到比他们更好的合伙人了。",[14,1365,1366],{},"有些不太搭调的是，中美能源还拥有美国第二大房地产经纪公司——美国家庭服务公司（HomeServices of America）。该公司通过20个地区品牌运营，拥有18,800名经纪人。去年房屋销售放缓，2008年很可能更慢。不过，我们会继续在价格合理时收购优质经纪公司。",[14,1368,1369],{},"以下是中美能源运营的一些关键数字：",[26,1371,1372,1384],{},[29,1373,1374],{},[32,1375,1376,1378,1381],{},[35,1377],{},[35,1379,1380],{},"2007年收益（百万美元）",[35,1382,1383],{},"2006年收益（百万美元）",[48,1385,1386,1397,1408,1419,1430,1441,1452,1463,1474,1485,1496,1507,1518,1529],{},[32,1387,1388,1391,1394],{},[53,1389,1390],{},"英国公用事业",[53,1392,1393],{},"$ 337",[53,1395,1396],{},"$ 338",[32,1398,1399,1402,1405],{},[53,1400,1401],{},"爱荷华州公用事业",[53,1403,1404],{},"412",[53,1406,1407],{},"348",[32,1409,1410,1413,1416],{},[53,1411,1412],{},"西部公用事业（2006年3月21日收购）",[53,1414,1415],{},"692",[53,1417,1418],{},"356",[32,1420,1421,1424,1427],{},[53,1422,1423],{},"管道业务",[53,1425,1426],{},"473",[53,1428,1429],{},"376",[32,1431,1432,1435,1438],{},[53,1433,1434],{},"美国家庭服务",[53,1436,1437],{},"42",[53,1439,1440],{},"74",[32,1442,1443,1446,1449],{},[53,1444,1445],{},"其他（净额）",[53,1447,1448],{},"130",[53,1450,1451],{},"245",[32,1453,1454,1457,1460],{},[53,1455,1456],{},"企业利息和税前收益",[53,1458,1459],{},"2,086",[53,1461,1462],{},"1,737",[32,1464,1465,1468,1471],{},[53,1466,1467],{},"对外利息支出",[53,1469,1470],{},"（312）",[53,1472,1473],{},"（261）",[32,1475,1476,1479,1482],{},[53,1477,1478],{},"伯克希尔次级债利息",[53,1480,1481],{},"（108）",[53,1483,1484],{},"（134）",[32,1486,1487,1490,1493],{},[53,1488,1489],{},"所得税",[53,1491,1492],{},"（477）",[53,1494,1495],{},"（426）",[32,1497,1498,1501,1504],{},[53,1499,1500],{},"净收益",[53,1502,1503],{},"$ 1,189",[53,1505,1506],{},"$ 916",[32,1508,1509,1512,1515],{},[53,1510,1511],{},"归属伯克希尔的收益 *",[53,1513,1514],{},"$ 1,114",[53,1516,1517],{},"$ 885",[32,1519,1520,1523,1526],{},[53,1521,1522],{},"对外负债",[53,1524,1525],{},"19,002",[53,1527,1528],{},"16,946",[32,1530,1531,1534,1537],{},[53,1532,1533],{},"对伯克希尔负债",[53,1535,1536],{},"821",[53,1538,1539],{},"1,055",[1195,1541,1542],{},[1198,1543,1544],{},"包括伯克希尔赚取的利息（扣除相关所得税后）：2007年为7,000万美元，2006年为8,700万美元。",[14,1546,1547],{},"1999年，我们同意以每股35.05美元收购中美能源35,464,337股股票，那年它的每股收益为2.59美元。为什么是35.05美元这么个零头？我最初认定这家企业对伯克希尔来说值每股35美元。在这个问题上我可是个”一口价”的人（还记得喜诗糖果的故事吗？），好几天里，代表中美能源的投资银行家怎么也没能让我加价。但最终，他们抓住了我一个软弱的瞬间，我让步了，告诉他们我出35.05美元。我解释说，这样他们可以回去跟客户说已经把我最后一枚镍币都榨出来了。在当时，这还真让我心疼了一下。",[14,1549,1550],{},"后来2002年，伯克希尔以每股60美元再购入670万股，为我们收购一条管道提供资金。最后在2006年，中美能源收购太平洋公司（PacifiCorp）时，我们又以每股145美元购入23,268,793股。",[14,1552,1553],{},"2007年，中美能源每股收益为15.78美元。不过其中0.77美元属于非经常性项目——由于英国公司税率下调，我们的英国公用事业公司递延税款有所减少。所以正常化收益约为每股15.01美元。是的，我很庆幸当初软了一下、多掏了那枚镍币。",[683,1555,1557],{"id":1556},"制造服务和零售业务","制造、服务和零售业务",[14,1559,1560],{},"伯克希尔在这个板块的业务可谓包罗万象。不过，先让我们看看整个集团的资产负债表和利润表概要。",[14,1562,1563],{},[17,1564,1565],{},"2007年12月31日资产负债表（百万美元）",[26,1567,1568,1583],{},[29,1569,1570],{},[32,1571,1572,1575,1578,1581],{},[35,1573,1574],{},"资产",[35,1576,1577],{},"金额",[35,1579,1580],{},"负债及所有者权益",[35,1582,1577],{},[48,1584,1585,1599,1611,1623,1637,1651,1665,1679,1693],{},[32,1586,1587,1590,1593,1596],{},[53,1588,1589],{},"现金及等价物",[53,1591,1592],{},"$ 2,080",[53,1594,1595],{},"应付票据",[53,1597,1598],{},"$ 1,278",[32,1600,1601,1604,1607,1609],{},[53,1602,1603],{},"应收账款及票据",[53,1605,1606],{},"4,488",[53,1608],{},[53,1610],{},[32,1612,1613,1616,1619,1621],{},[53,1614,1615],{},"存货",[53,1617,1618],{},"5,793",[53,1620],{},[53,1622],{},[32,1624,1625,1628,1631,1634],{},[53,1626,1627],{},"其他流动资产",[53,1629,1630],{},"470",[53,1632,1633],{},"其他流动负债",[53,1635,1636],{},"7,652",[32,1638,1639,1642,1645,1648],{},[53,1640,1641],{},"流动资产合计",[53,1643,1644],{},"12,831",[53,1646,1647],{},"流动负债合计",[53,1649,1650],{},"8,930",[32,1652,1653,1656,1659,1662],{},[53,1654,1655],{},"商誉及其他无形资产",[53,1657,1658],{},"14,201",[53,1660,1661],{},"递延税款",[53,1663,1664],{},"828",[32,1666,1667,1670,1673,1676],{},[53,1668,1669],{},"固定资产",[53,1671,1672],{},"9,605",[53,1674,1675],{},"长期债务及其他负债",[53,1677,1678],{},"3,079",[32,1680,1681,1684,1687,1690],{},[53,1682,1683],{},"其他资产",[53,1685,1686],{},"1,685",[53,1688,1689],{},"所有者权益",[53,1691,1692],{},"25,485",[32,1694,1695,1697,1700,1702],{},[53,1696],{},[53,1698,1699],{},"$ 38,322",[53,1701],{},[53,1703,1699],{},[14,1705,1706],{},[17,1707,1708],{},"利润表（百万美元）",[26,1710,1711,1724],{},[29,1712,1713],{},[32,1714,1715,1718,1720,1722],{},[35,1716,1717],{},"项目",[35,1719,628],{},[35,1721,614],{},[35,1723,601],{},[48,1725,1726,1740,1754,1768,1782,1795],{},[32,1727,1728,1731,1734,1737],{},[53,1729,1730],{},"营业收入",[53,1732,1733],{},"$ 59,100",[53,1735,1736],{},"$ 52,660",[53,1738,1739],{},"$ 46,896",[32,1741,1742,1745,1748,1751],{},[53,1743,1744],{},"营业费用（含折旧：2007年9.55亿，2006年8.23亿，2005年6.99亿）",[53,1746,1747],{},"55,026",[53,1749,1750],{},"49,002",[53,1752,1753],{},"44,190",[32,1755,1756,1759,1762,1765],{},[53,1757,1758],{},"利息支出（净额）",[53,1760,1761],{},"127",[53,1763,1764],{},"132",[53,1766,1767],{},"83",[32,1769,1770,1773,1776,1779],{},[53,1771,1772],{},"税前利润",[53,1774,1775],{},"3,947*",[53,1777,1778],{},"3,526*",[53,1780,1781],{},"2,623*",[32,1783,1784,1786,1789,1792],{},[53,1785,1489],{},[53,1787,1788],{},"1,594",[53,1790,1791],{},"1,395",[53,1793,1794],{},"977",[32,1796,1797,1800,1803,1806],{},[53,1798,1799],{},"净利润",[53,1801,1802],{},"$ 2,353",[53,1804,1805],{},"$ 2,131",[53,1807,1808],{},"$ 1,646",[1195,1810,1811],{},[1198,1812,1813],{},"不含购买法会计调整。",[14,1815,1816,1817,1820],{},"这个五花八门的集团，产品从棒棒糖到房车无所不包，去年在平均有形资产净值上赚取了令人满意的23%回报。值得注意的是，取得这一回报仅使用了极少的财务杠杆。显然，我们拥有的是一些非常出色的企业。不过我们在收购其中很多家时，支付了远超净资产的溢价——这反映在资产负债表上的商誉科目中——这一事实将我们平均",[875,1818,1819],{},"账面","价值的收益率拉低至9.8%。",[14,1822,1823],{},"以下是这个板块一些值得关注的情况：",[1195,1825,1826],{},[1198,1827,1828],{},"Shaw地毯、Acme砖块、Johns Manville隔热材料和MiTek连接件全都受到了2007年房地产市场急剧下滑的打击，税前利润分别下降27%、41%、38%和9%。这些公司合计赚取了9.41亿美元的税前利润，而2006年为12.96亿美元。",[14,1830,1831],{},"去年，Shaw、MiTek和Acme签下了多笔补强收购，将有助于未来的收益增长。可以肯定，它们还会继续寻找更多这样的机会。",[1195,1833,1834],{},[1198,1835,1836],{},"在零售业的困难年份里，我们表现突出的是喜诗糖果、波仙珠宝（Borsheim’s）和内布拉斯加家具店（Nebraska Furniture Mart）。",[14,1838,1839],{},"两年前布拉德·金斯特勒（Brad Kinstler）被任命为喜诗糖果的CEO。在伯克希尔，我们极少把经理人从一个行业调到另一个行业。但布拉德是个例外——他之前管理的是我们的制服公司菲希海默（Fechheimer）和Cypress保险公司。事实证明这次调动再成功不过了。在他负责的两年里，喜诗糖果的利润增长超过50%。",[14,1841,1842],{},"波仙珠宝的销售额增长了15.1%，其中27%的增长来自股东周末活动。两年前苏珊·雅克斯（Susan Jacques）建议我们重新装修并扩大店面。我当时持怀疑态度，但苏珊是对的。",[14,1844,1845],{},"苏珊25年前加入波仙珠宝时是一名时薪4美元的女售货员。尽管她缺乏管理背景，1994年我毫不犹豫地让她担任了CEO。她聪明，热爱这项事业，也热爱她的同事。这些品质在任何时候都胜过一个MBA学位。",[14,1847,1848,1849,1852,1853,1856,1857,1860],{},"（说句题外话：查理和我都不迷信简历。相反，我们看重的是头脑、热情和正直。我们另一位超级经理人是凯西·巴伦·塔姆拉兹 ",[1031,1850,1851],{},"Cathy Baron Tamraz","，自2006年初我们收购美国商业资讯 ",[1031,1854,1855],{},"Business Wire"," 以来，她大幅提升了公司的利润。她简直是企业主梦寐以求的经理人。站在凯西和她的业务目标之间，绝对是",[875,1858,1859],{},"危险","的。值得一提的是，凯西的职业生涯始于出租车司机。）",[14,1862,1863],{},"最后说说内布拉斯加家具店，去年利润创下新高——我们的奥马哈和堪萨斯城两家店各自实现了约4亿美元的销售额。这两家店以相当大的优势，成为全美排名前两位的家具店。在对许多家具零售商来说堪称灾难的年份里，堪萨斯城店销售额增长8%，奥马哈店增长6%。",[14,1865,1866],{},"这些成绩要归功于出色的布鲁姆金兄弟（Blumkin brothers）——罗恩（Ron）和艾文（Irv）。他们都是我亲密的私人朋友和杰出的生意人。",[1195,1868,1869,1872],{},[1198,1870,1871],{},"伊斯卡（Iscar）继续着它的辉煌之路。它的产品是小型硬质合金切削刀具，能让那些庞大而昂贵的机床发挥更高的生产效率。碳化物的原材料钨产自中国。几十年来，伊斯卡把钨运到以色列，靠聪明的大脑将其变成价值高得多的东西。2007年末，伊斯卡在中国大连开设了一座大型工厂。实际上，我们现在是把大脑搬到了钨的身边。伊斯卡的成长机会巨大。由艾坦·维特海默（Eitan Wertheimer）、雅各布·哈帕兹（Jacob Harpaz）和丹尼·高德曼（Danny Goldman）领导的管理团队，一定会牢牢抓住这些机会。",[1198,1873,1874],{},"飞行服务业务在2007年创下纪录，税前利润增长49%至5.47亿美元。公务航空业在全球范围内经历了非凡的一年，我们的两家公司——作为各自领域遥遥领先的龙头——充分分享了这一增长。",[14,1876,1877],{},"飞安公司——我们的飞行员培训业务——收入增长14%，税前利润增长20%。我们估计培训了大约58%的美国企业飞行员。布鲁斯·惠特曼（Bruce Whitman）于2003年从”高级飞行训练之父”阿尔·尤尔奇（Al Ueltschi）手中接过CEO一职，事实证明他是一位称职的继任者。",[14,1879,1880,1881,1884],{},"在利捷航空（NetJets）——共享飞机所有权的发明者——我们仍然是无可挑战的行业领袖。目前我们在美国运营487架飞机，在欧洲运营135架，机队规模超过三大主要竞争对手",[875,1882,1883],{},"加在一起","的两倍。由于我们在大型客舱市场的份额接近90%，按价值计算的领先优势更是大得多。",[14,1886,1887],{},"利捷航空的品牌——以安全、服务和安保为承诺——一年比一年强大。在这背后是一个人的热情：理查德·桑图利（Richard Santulli）。如果你要挑一个人跟你一起蹲散兵坑，没有比里奇更好的人选了。不管面前有什么障碍，他就是不会停下来。",[14,1889,1890],{},"欧洲业务最能说明里奇的坚韧如何带来成功。最初十年我们在那里几乎没取得什么财务进展，实际上累计亏损了2.12亿美元。自从里奇让马克·布斯（Mark Booth）来负责欧洲业务后，我们才开始有了真正的起色。现在势头已经完全起来了，去年利润翻了三倍。",[14,1892,1893],{},"11月份，我们的董事们在利捷航空位于哥伦布市的总部开会，顺便参观了那里精密的运营中心。它每天在各种天气条件下负责约1,000架次的飞行任务，客户期待的是顶级服务。董事们离开时对设施和运营能力印象深刻——但对里奇和他的团队印象更加深刻。",[683,1895,1896],{"id":1896},"金融和金融产品业务",[14,1898,1899],{},"这个板块的主要业务是克莱顿公司（Clayton Homes），全美最大的预制房屋制造商和销售商。去年克莱顿的市场份额创下31%的历史新高。但行业总量继续萎缩：去年预制房屋销售量为9.6万套，低于2003年我们收购克莱顿时的13.1万套。（当初还有评论人士批评克莱顿的董事在行业周期底部就把公司卖了，这可得记住。）",[14,1901,1902],{},"虽然克莱顿从制造和销售预制房屋中获利，但大部分收益来自其110亿美元的贷款组合，覆盖30万名借款人。这就是我们把克莱顿归入金融业务板块的原因。尽管2007年房地产金融领域问题频发，克莱顿的贷款组合表现良好。这一年的逾期率、止赎率和损失率与我们持有期间前几年的水平相当。",[14,1904,1905,1906,1909],{},"克莱顿的贷款组合由伯克希尔提供资金。我们在伯克希尔自身借款成本的基础上加收一个百分点——去年这笔费用为8,500万美元。克莱顿2007年5.26亿美元的税前利润是",[875,1907,1908],{},"扣除","这笔费用之后的数字。这笔交易的另一面是，伯克希尔记入了8,500万美元的收入，包含在下表的”其他”项中。",[26,1911,1912,1925],{},[29,1913,1914],{},[32,1915,1916,1919,1922],{},[35,1917,1918],{},"（百万美元）",[35,1920,1921],{},"2007年税前利润",[35,1923,1924],{},"2006年税前利润",[48,1926,1927,1938,1949,1960,1971,1982,1993,2004],{},[32,1928,1929,1932,1935],{},[53,1930,1931],{},"交易——经常性收入",[53,1933,1934],{},"$ 272",[53,1936,1937],{},"$ 274",[32,1939,1940,1943,1946],{},[53,1941,1942],{},"寿险和年金业务",[53,1944,1945],{},"(60)",[53,1947,1948],{},"29",[32,1950,1951,1954,1957],{},[53,1952,1953],{},"租赁业务",[53,1955,1956],{},"111",[53,1958,1959],{},"182",[32,1961,1962,1965,1968],{},[53,1963,1964],{},"预制房屋金融（克莱顿）",[53,1966,1967],{},"526",[53,1969,1970],{},"513",[32,1972,1973,1976,1979],{},[53,1974,1975],{},"其他",[53,1977,1978],{},"157",[53,1980,1981],{},"159",[32,1983,1984,1987,1990],{},[53,1985,1986],{},"资本利得前收入",[53,1988,1989],{},"1,006",[53,1991,1992],{},"1,157",[32,1994,1995,1998,2001],{},[53,1996,1997],{},"交易——资本利得",[53,1999,2000],{},"105",[53,2002,2003],{},"938",[32,2005,2006,2008,2011],{},[53,2007,1337],{},[53,2009,2010],{},"$ 1,111",[53,2012,2013],{},"$ 2,095",[14,2015,2016],{},"表中的租赁业务包括XTRA（拖车租赁）和科特商业服务公司（CORT，家具租赁）。2007年拖车利用率明显下降，导致XTRA收益减少。该公司去年还借入4亿美元并将款项分配给伯克希尔，由此增加的利息支出进一步压低了XTRA的收益。",[14,2018,2019],{},"克莱顿、XTRA和CORT都是好企业，分别由凯文·克莱顿（Kevin Clayton）、比尔·弗兰兹（Bill Franz）和保罗·阿诺德（Paul Arnold）出色地经营着。每家公司在归入伯克希尔后都进行了补强收购。未来还会有更多。",[683,2021,2022],{"id":2022},"投资业务",[14,2024,2025],{},"下面列出的是年底时我们持有的普通股投资，市值至少达到6亿美元。",[14,2027,2028],{},[17,2029,2030],{},"2007年12月31日",[26,2032,2033,2052],{},[29,2034,2035],{},[32,2036,2037,2040,2043,2046,2049],{},[35,2038,2039],{},"持股数量",[35,2041,2042],{},"公司",[35,2044,2045],{},"持股比例",[35,2047,2048],{},"成本*（百万美元）",[35,2050,2051],{},"市值（百万美元）",[48,2053,2054,2071,2088,2104,2121,2138,2155,2171,2188,2205,2222,2238,2255,2272,2289,2306,2322,2339,2356,2370],{},[32,2055,2056,2059,2062,2065,2068],{},[53,2057,2058],{},"151,610,700",[53,2060,2061],{},"美国运通",[53,2063,2064],{},"13.1",[53,2066,2067],{},"$ 1,287",[53,2069,2070],{},"$ 7,887",[32,2072,2073,2076,2079,2082,2085],{},[53,2074,2075],{},"35,563,200",[53,2077,2078],{},"安海斯-布希",[53,2080,2081],{},"4.8",[53,2083,2084],{},"1,718",[53,2086,2087],{},"1,861",[32,2089,2090,2093,2096,2098,2101],{},[53,2091,2092],{},"60,828,818",[53,2094,2095],{},"伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路",[53,2097,257],{},[53,2099,2100],{},"4,731",[53,2102,2103],{},"5,063",[32,2105,2106,2109,2112,2115,2118],{},[53,2107,2108],{},"200,000,000",[53,2110,2111],{},"可口可乐",[53,2113,2114],{},"8.6",[53,2116,2117],{},"1,299",[53,2119,2120],{},"12,274",[32,2122,2123,2126,2129,2132,2135],{},[53,2124,2125],{},"17,508,700",[53,2127,2128],{},"康菲石油",[53,2130,2131],{},"1.1",[53,2133,2134],{},"1,039",[53,2136,2137],{},"1,546",[32,2139,2140,2143,2146,2149,2152],{},[53,2141,2142],{},"64,271,948",[53,2144,2145],{},"强生",[53,2147,2148],{},"2.2",[53,2150,2151],{},"3,943",[53,2153,2154],{},"4,287",[32,2156,2157,2160,2163,2165,2168],{},[53,2158,2159],{},"124,393,800",[53,2161,2162],{},"卡夫食品",[53,2164,133],{},[53,2166,2167],{},"4,152",[53,2169,2170],{},"4,059",[32,2172,2173,2176,2179,2182,2185],{},[53,2174,2175],{},"48,000,000",[53,2177,2178],{},"穆迪",[53,2180,2181],{},"19.1",[53,2183,2184],{},"499",[53,2186,2187],{},"1,714",[32,2189,2190,2193,2196,2199,2202],{},[53,2191,2192],{},"3,486,006",[53,2194,2195],{},"浦项制铁 POSCO",[53,2197,2198],{},"4.5",[53,2200,2201],{},"572",[53,2203,2204],{},"2,136",[32,2206,2207,2210,2213,2216,2219],{},[53,2208,2209],{},"101,472,000",[53,2211,2212],{},"宝洁",[53,2214,2215],{},"3.3",[53,2217,2218],{},"1,030",[53,2220,2221],{},"7,450",[32,2223,2224,2227,2230,2232,2235],{},[53,2225,2226],{},"17,170,953",[53,2228,2229],{},"赛诺菲-安万特",[53,2231,457],{},[53,2233,2234],{},"1,466",[53,2236,2237],{},"1,575",[32,2239,2240,2243,2246,2249,2252],{},[53,2241,2242],{},"227,307,000",[53,2244,2245],{},"乐购 Tesco",[53,2247,2248],{},"2.9",[53,2250,2251],{},"1,326",[53,2253,2254],{},"2,156",[32,2256,2257,2260,2263,2266,2269],{},[53,2258,2259],{},"75,176,026",[53,2261,2262],{},"美国合众银行",[53,2264,2265],{},"4.4",[53,2267,2268],{},"2,417",[53,2270,2271],{},"2,386",[32,2273,2274,2277,2280,2283,2286],{},[53,2275,2276],{},"17,072,192",[53,2278,2279],{},"USG",[53,2281,2282],{},"17.2",[53,2284,2285],{},"536",[53,2287,2288],{},"611",[32,2290,2291,2294,2297,2300,2303],{},[53,2292,2293],{},"19,944,300",[53,2295,2296],{},"沃尔玛",[53,2298,2299],{},"0.5",[53,2301,2302],{},"942",[53,2304,2305],{},"948",[32,2307,2308,2311,2314,2316,2319],{},[53,2309,2310],{},"1,727,765",[53,2312,2313],{},"华盛顿邮报",[53,2315,254],{},[53,2317,2318],{},"11",[53,2320,2321],{},"1,367",[32,2323,2324,2327,2330,2333,2336],{},[53,2325,2326],{},"303,407,068",[53,2328,2329],{},"富国银行",[53,2331,2332],{},"9.2",[53,2334,2335],{},"6,677",[53,2337,2338],{},"9,160",[32,2340,2341,2344,2347,2350,2353],{},[53,2342,2343],{},"1,724,200",[53,2345,2346],{},"白山保险集团",[53,2348,2349],{},"16.3",[53,2351,2352],{},"369",[53,2354,2355],{},"886",[32,2357,2358,2360,2362,2365,2368],{},[53,2359],{},[53,2361,1975],{},[53,2363,2364],{},"5,238",[53,2366,2367],{},"7,633",[53,2369],{},[32,2371,2372,2375,2378,2381,2383],{},[53,2373,2374],{},"普通股合计",[53,2376,2377],{},"$ 39,252",[53,2379,2380],{},"$ 74,999",[53,2382],{},[53,2384],{},[1195,2386,2387],{},[1198,2388,2389],{},"这是我们的实际购买价格，也是计税依据；通用会计准则（GAAP）认定的”成本”在少数情况下因增值或减值调整而有所不同。",[14,2391,2392],{},"总体而言，我们对被投资公司的经营表现感到欣慰。2007年，我们四大重仓股中的三家——美国运通、可口可乐和宝洁——每股收益分别增长了12%、14%和14%。第四家富国银行由于房地产泡沫破裂，利润略有下降。不过我相信，它的内在价值仍然有所增长，即使幅度不大。",[14,2394,2395],{},"说到有趣的事：美国运通和富国银行都是由亨利·威尔斯（Henry Wells）和威廉·法戈（William Fargo）创立的——运通创于1850年，富国创于1852年。宝洁和可口可乐分别始创于1837年和1886年。创业公司可不是我们的菜。",[14,2397,2398],{},"我要强调的是，我们不以任何一年的市场价格变动来衡量投资的进展。相反，我们用与衡量自有企业相同的两个标准来评估它们的表现。第一个标准是——在考虑行业整体状况后——收益是否有改善。第二个标准更为主观：它们的”护城河“在这一年里是否变得更宽。所谓”护城河”是一种比喻，指的是公司拥有的那些让竞争对手日子难过的优势。这四大公司在这项测试中全部得分。",[14,2400,2401],{},"去年我们有一笔大的卖出。2002年和2003年，伯克希尔以4.88亿美元买入中国石油（PetroChina）1.3%的股权，按此价格整个公司的估值约为370亿美元。当时查理和我认为这家公司大约值1,000亿美元。到2007年，有两个因素大幅提升了它的价值：油价显著攀升，而且中国石油的管理层在积累油气储量方面做得很出色。去年下半年，公司市值升至2,750亿美元，与其他大型石油公司相比估值大致相当。于是我们以40亿美元卖出了全部持股。",[14,2403,2404,2405,2408],{},"附带说一句：我们为中国石油的投资收益向美国国税局缴纳了12亿美元的税款。这笔钱够支付美国政府大约四个小时的",[875,2406,2407],{},"全部","开支——国防、社会保障，你能想到的全都包括在内。",[680,2410],{},[14,2412,2413],{},"去年我告诉你们，我管理着伯克希尔的62份衍生品合约。（我们在通用再保险的清算账簿上还残留了一些。）如今，我们有94份这类合约，分为两类。",[14,2415,2416],{},"第一类，我们签署了54份合约，要求当各种高收益指数中包含的某些债券违约时，我们必须进行赔付。这些合约的到期时间不等，从2009年到2013年。截至年底，我们从这些合约中收取了32亿美元的保费，已支付了4.72亿美元的损失；在最坏情况下（尽管极不可能发生），还需要额外支付47亿美元。",[14,2418,2419],{},"我们肯定还会支付更多。但我相信，仅就保费收入而言——不算我们持有的大笔资金所能产生的投资收益——这些合约就是盈利的。年底我们在资产负债表的”衍生合约负债”项下为这类敞口记录了18亿美元的负债。",[14,2421,2422,2423,2426],{},"第二类合约涉及我们出售的各种看跌期权，标的为四个股票指数（标普500指数加上三个国外指数）。这些看跌期权的原始期限为15年或20年，行权价设定在当时的市场水平。我们已收到45亿美元的保费，年底记录的负债为46亿美元。这些合约中的看跌期权",[875,2424,2425],{},"只能","在到期日行权，到期时间在2019年到2027年之间，届时只有当相关指数低于期权签订当天的水平时，伯克希尔才需要支付赔款。同样，我相信这些合约总体上将是盈利的，而且在持有保费的15至20年期间，我们还将从投资中获得可观的收入。",[14,2428,2429],{},"我们的衍生品合约有两个方面特别重要。第一，在所有交易中都是我们持有资金，这意味着我们没有交易对手风险。",[14,2431,2432],{},"第二，我们衍生品合约适用的会计准则与投资组合不同。在投资组合中，价值变动计入伯克希尔资产负债表的净资产，但除非我们卖出（或减值）一项持股，否则不影响收益。然而，衍生品合约的价值变动必须每个季度计入损益。",[14,2434,2435],{},"因此，我们的衍生品持仓有时会导致报告收益出现大幅波动，尽管查理和我可能认为这些持仓的内在价值几乎没有变化。即使这些波动在一个季度内很容易达到10亿美元甚至更多，他和我也不会为此烦恼——我们希望你们也不会。你们应该还记得，在巨灾保险业务中，我们总是愿意用短期报告收益的大幅波动来换取长期净资产的巨大增长。这也是我们在衍生品方面的投资哲学。",[680,2437],{},[14,2439,2440],{},"2007年，美元对主要货币进一步贬值，原因显而易见：美国人购买外国产品的热情，超过了世界其他地区对美国产品的热情。这不可避免地导致美国每天向世界其他地区输送约20亿美元的借据和资产。日积月累，这对美元造成了下行压力。",[14,2442,2443],{},"美元贬值既让外国人更便宜地购买我们的产品，又让他们的产品对美国消费者来说变得更贵。这就是为什么货币贬值被认为能够纠正贸易逆差。确实，美元的大幅贬值无疑在一定程度上缓解了美国的贸易逆差。但想想这个：2002年欧元均价为0.946美元时，我们对德国（第五大贸易伙伴）的贸易逆差为360亿美元；而到2007年欧元均价1.37美元时，我们对德国的逆差却上升到了450亿美元。类似地，加元2002年均价为0.64美元，2007年为0.93美元。然而我们对加拿大的贸易逆差同样在上升，从2002年的500亿美元增至2007年的640亿美元。至少到目前为止，美元的暴跌对平衡我们的贸易收支并没有起到多大作用。",[14,2445,2446,2447,2450,2451,2454],{},"最近有很多关于主权财富基金以及它们如何大举收购美国企业的讨论。这是",[875,2448,2449],{},"我们自己","造成的，不是什么外国政府的邪恶阴谋。我们的贸易格局决定了大规模的外国资本必然流入美国。当我们每天强行向世界其他地区输出20亿美元时，他们总得在这里投资",[875,2452,2453],{},"点什么","吧。当他们选择买股票而不是买债券时，我们有什么好抱怨的呢？",[14,2456,2457],{},"美元走弱不是OPEC或中国的错。其他发达国家和我们一样依赖进口石油，也和我们一样面对中国进口商品的竞争。在制定合理的贸易政策时，美国不应挑选某些国家来惩罚或某些行业来保护。我们也不应该采取可能引发报复的行动，那样只会减少美国的出口——真正的贸易对我们国家和世界其他地区都有利。",[14,2459,2460,2461,2464,2465,2468],{},"然而，我们的立法者应该认识到，当前的贸易失衡是不可持续的，因此应该尽早——而非推迟——采取措施从根本上缩小这种失衡。否则，我们每天强塞给世界各地的20亿美元，可能会引发一场不太好受的全球性消化不良。（关于贸易逆差不可持续性的其他评论，请参见艾伦·格林斯潘 ",[1031,2462,2463],{},"Alan Greenspan"," 2004年11月19日的讲话、联邦公开市场委员会2004年6月29日的会议纪要，以及本·伯南克 ",[1031,2466,2467],{},"Ben Bernanke"," 2007年9月11日的声明。）",[680,2470],{},[14,2472,2473,2474,2477],{},"2007年伯克希尔只持有一种直接外汇头寸。它是——请屏住呼吸——巴西雷亚尔。就在不久前，把美元换成雷亚尔还被认为不可想象。毕竟，在过去一个世纪里，",[875,2475,2476],{},"五个","版本的巴西货币实际上都变成了碎纸片。正如许多货币周期性贬值和消亡的国家一样，富有的巴西人有时会把大笔资金转移到美国以保全财富。",[14,2479,2480,2481,2484,2485,2488],{},"但任何采取这种看似审慎策略的巴西人，在过去五年里都损失了",[875,2482,2483],{},"一半","的净资产。以下是2002年底到2007年底雷亚尔对美元的年度指数记录：100；122；133；152；166；199。每年雷亚尔都在升值，美元都在下跌。而且在这段时期的大部分时间里，巴西政府实际上还在市场上买入美元，压低雷亚尔的币值来支撑",[875,2486,2487],{},"我们的","货币。",[14,2490,2491],{},"过去五年，我们的直接外汇头寸带来了23亿美元的税前利润。此外，我们还通过持有以外币计价的美国公司债券获利。例如，2001年和2002年，我们以57%的面值买入了面值3.1亿欧元的亚马逊公司（Amazon.com）2010年到期、票面利率6.875%的债券。当时亚马逊的债券被定价为”垃圾”级信用，尽管它们根本不是。（是的，弗吉尼亚，你偶尔确实能发现市场效率低得离谱——至少在任何地方都能发现，除了某些顶尖商学院的金融系。）",[14,2493,2494],{},"亚马逊债券以欧元计价，这对我们来说是一个更深层也更重要的吸引力。2002年我们买入时，欧元均价为0.95美元。因此我们的美元成本仅为1.69亿美元。如今这些债券以面值的102%交易，欧元价值1.47美元。2005年和2006年我们有部分债券被赎回，收到2.53亿美元。年底我们剩余债券的价值为1.62亿美元。在我们2.46亿美元的已实现和未实现收益中，约1.18亿美元归因于美元贬值。货币确实很重要。",[14,2496,2497],{},"在伯克希尔，我们将努力进一步增加直接和间接的海外收益来源。但即使我们做到了，我们的资产和收益仍将主要集中在美国。尽管我们的国家有着种种不完美之处和层出不穷的各种问题，美国的法治、顺应市场的经济体系以及对择优而进的信仰，几乎必然将为国民带来不断增长的繁荣。",[680,2499],{},[14,2501,2502],{},"正如我之前告诉你们的，我们在CEO继任方面已经准备了相当一段时间，因为我们有三位杰出的内部候选人。董事会清楚地知道，一旦我因为去世或能力衰退而无法继续工作，他们会选谁来接替。而且还有另外两位后备人选。",[14,2504,2505],{},"去年我还告诉你们，我们也将尽快完成伯克希尔投资业务的继任计划，现在我们确实已经锁定了四位候选人来接替我管理投资。他们目前都管理着大量资金，而且都表示如果接到召唤，非常有兴趣来伯克希尔工作。董事会了解这四位各自的长处，如果需要，将会聘用其中一位或多位。这些候选人年龄从青壮年到中年，经济条件从富裕到很富裕不等，所有人希望为伯克希尔效力的原因都超越了薪酬本身。",[14,2507,2508],{},"（我很不情愿地打消了我死后继续管理投资组合的念头——也放弃了给”跳出框框思考”这个词赋予全新含义的美好愿望。）",[683,2510,2512],{"id":2511},"充满想象力的数字上市公司如何给收益注水","充满想象力的数字——上市公司如何给收益”注水”",[14,2514,2515],{},"前参议员艾伦·辛普森（Alan Simpson）有句名言：“在华盛顿走阳光大道的人，不必担心交通拥堵。”不过如果参议员想找一条真正空无一人的街道，他应该去看看美国企业界的会计那条路。",[14,2517,2518],{},"1994年，在企业偏好哪条路这个问题上出现了一次重要的”公投”。美国的CEO们刚刚向参议院施加了强大压力，以88票对9票的投票结果，命令财务会计准则委员会（FASB）闭嘴。在那次斥责之前，FASB曾大胆地——而且是全体一致——告诉那些企业掌门人：授予他们的股票期权属于一种薪酬形式，其价值应当作为费用入账。",[14,2520,2521,2522,2525],{},"参议院投票之后，FASB——现在由参议院的88位秘密注册会计师教授会计原则了——颁布法令说，公司可以在两种期权报告方式中选择。",[875,2523,2524],{},"首选","方式是将期权价值费用化，但同时也允许公司在按市价发行期权的情况下忽略这笔费用。",[14,2527,2528,2529,2532],{},"真相的时刻到了。面对美国CEO们的反应，实在不是什么好看的景象。在接下来的六年里，标普500成分股公司中选择首选方式的只有",[875,2530,2531],{},"两家","。其余公司的CEO全部选了另一条路，无视一笔巨大而明显的费用，只为报告更高的”收益”。我相信他们中一些人也想到了，如果选择费用化，董事们未来可能在批准经理们梦寐以求的大笔期权时会三思而行。",[14,2534,2535],{},"结果证明，对许多CEO来说，连这条捷径都不够好。在这条弱化后的规则下，如果期权的行权价低于市价，仍然会影响报告收益。没关系。为了绕过这条恼人的规定，许多公司偷偷回溯期权授予日期，虚假地表明这些期权是按当时市价发放的，而实际上是以远低于市价的价格发行的。",[14,2537,2538],{},"十多年来关于股票期权的荒唐会计已经尘埃落定了，但其他会计选择依然存在——其中重要的一项是公司在计算养老金费用时采用的投资回报假设。毫不奇怪，许多公司继续选择一个能让它们报告高于实际水平的”收益”的假设。在标普500中有养老金计划的363家公司里，2006年的平均投资回报假设为8%。让我们看看这个假设实现的可能性有多大。",[14,2540,2541],{},"所有养老基金平均持有约28%的债券和现金，这部分资产的回报率不太可能超过5%。当然，更高的收益是有可能获得的，但同时也伴随着相应（或更大）损失的风险。",[14,2543,2544,2545,2548],{},"这意味着，剩余72%的资产——主要是股权投资，通过直接持有或对冲基金、私募股权等工具间接持有——必须赚到9.2%，才能让基金整体达到假设的8%。而且这个回报率必须是扣除全部费用",[875,2546,2547],{},"之后","的数字，如今的费用水平远高于以往。",[14,2550,2551],{},"这种期望有多现实？让我们回顾两年前我提到过的一些数据：整个20世纪，道琼斯指数从66点涨到11,497点。这个涨幅看上去巨大，但年复合增长率仅为5.3%。一个在整个世纪里持有道指的投资者，在大部分时期还能获得慷慨的股息，但到最后几年股息率大约只有2%左右了。那是一个美好的世纪。",[14,2553,2554,2555,2558,2559,2562],{},"现在想想",[875,2556,2557],{},"这个","世纪。投资者仅仅要匹配那5.3%的市值增长率，道指——最近低于13,000点——需要在2099年12月31日收于大约",[875,2560,2561],{},"200万点","。我们已经进入本世纪的第八年了，在道指需要在这一百年里走完的198.8万点中，我们仅仅完成了不到2,000点。",[14,2564,2565],{},"有趣的是，市场评论人士每当道指突破某个整千点大关——比如14,000点或15,000点——就会激动不已。如果他们继续保持这种反应的话，按本世纪年化5.3%的增长率计算，他们在未来92年里至少要经历1,986次这样的激动。虽然一切皆有可能，但真的有人相信这是最可能出现的结果吗？",[14,2567,2568],{},"股息率继续在2%左右徘徊。即使股票年均增值率能达到上世纪5.3%的水平，养老金计划中的股票部分，在扣除0.5%的费用后，收益率也不会超过约7%。而考虑到层层叠叠的顾问和高价基金经理（“帮忙人”）的存在，0.5%的费用很可能是低估了。",[14,2570,2571,2572,2575],{},"当然，每个人都指望自己能超过平均水平。而那些”帮忙人”——愿上帝保佑他们——肯定会鼓励客户坚信这一点。但作为一个整体，有”帮忙人”助阵的群体必然",[875,2573,2574],{},"低于","平均水平。道理很简单：1) 投资者整体而言，必然获得市场平均回报减去他们承担的费用；2) 被动和指数投资者由于不怎么交易，获得的是平均回报减去一个很低的费用；3) 既然这个群体获得了平均回报，那么剩下的群体——主动投资者——也必然获得平均回报。但这个群体会产生高昂的交易、管理和顾问费用。因此，主动投资者的回报被削减的比例远大于他们那些”不折腾”的同仁。这意味着，那个被动的群体——那些”什么也不懂”的人——一定会胜出。",[14,2577,2578,2579,2582],{},"我还得指出，那些期望本世纪从股票中获得年化10%回报的人——他们设想其中2%来自股息、8%来自价格增值——实际上是在隐含预测道琼斯指数到2100年将达到大约",[875,2580,2581],{},"2,400万点","。如果你的理财顾问跟你说股票能带来两位数的回报，把这道算术题解释给他听——虽然这不一定能让他清醒。许多”帮忙人”显然是《爱丽丝梦游仙境》里那位女王的直系后裔，她说过：“哼，有时候我早饭前就已经相信了六件不可能的事呢。”要提防那些油嘴滑舌的”帮忙人”——他们一边往你脑子里灌幻想，一边往自己口袋里装佣金。",[14,2584,2585],{},"有些公司在欧洲和美国都有养老金计划，在会计处理上几乎所有公司都假设美国的计划回报率高于非美国的计划。这种差异令人费解：这些公司为什么不把美国的养老金经理派去管理海外的养老金资产，让他们在那边也施展一下魔法呢？我从没见过有人解释这个谜题。但那些负责审查回报假设的审计师和精算师似乎对此毫无异议。",[14,2587,2588],{},"倒是毫不费解的一点是，CEO们为什么选择高回报假设：因为这样他们就能报告更高的收益。即便他们错了——而我相信他们就是错的——恶果也要等到他们退休后很久才会显现。",[14,2590,2591],{},"数十年来，美国企业界在企图尽可能报告最高当期收益方面不断突破底线——甚至更糟。是时候收敛了。他们应该听听我的搭档查理的话：“如果你三次把球打出了左边界，下次挥杆时就往右边瞄一瞄。”",[680,2593],{},[14,2595,2596],{},"不管养老金成本方面有什么意外在未来等着股东们，纳税人将要经历的冲击比这大得多。公共养老金的承诺金额巨大，但在很多情况下资金严重不足。由于这颗定时炸弹的引线很长，政客们不愿承受加税带来的阵痛——毕竟问题要等这些官员离任很久之后才会浮出水面。允许非常早退休——有时候退休者才40岁出头——以及慷慨的生活成本调整，对这些官员来说是很容易做出的承诺。在一个人们寿命越来越长而通货膨胀确定无疑的世界里，这些承诺想兑现可就难了。",[680,2598],{},[14,2600,2601,2602],{},"在阐述了美国企业会计中”荣誉制度”的种种失败之后，我需要指出，这恰恰是伯克希尔在一项真正巨大的资产负债表科目上所采用的制度。在每一份呈交给你们的报告中，我们都必须估算保险业务的损失准备金。如果我们的估算有误，那么我们的资产负债表和损益表就都是错的。所以我们自然竭尽所能让这些估算尽可能准确。",[875,2603,2604],{},"然而，在每一份报告中，我们的估算肯定会有偏差。",[14,2606,2607],{},"截至2007年底，我们列示了560亿美元的保险负债，这代表我们对年底前发生的所有损失事件最终赔付金额的推测（其中约30亿美元的准备金已按现值贴现）。我们知悉数以千计的理赔事件，并对每一个都估算了美元金额，反映我们预计的赔付额，包括赔付过程中产生的相关费用（如律师费）。某些情况下，比如工伤赔偿中涉及的严重人身伤害索赔，赔付期限可长达50年甚至更久。",[14,2609,2610],{},"我们还为年底前已经发生但尚未接到报告的损失预留了大笔准备金。有时候被保险人自己都不知道损失已经发生了。（想想那些多年未被发现的挪用公款案件吧。）我们有时会收到来自几十年前承保的保单的索赔。",[14,2612,2613],{},"几年前我给你们讲过一个故事，形象说明了我们在精确估算损失责任方面有多困难：一个小伙子正在欧洲出差，这时他妹妹来电话说他们的父亲去世了。哥哥说他赶不回来，但让妹妹不要在葬礼上省钱，所有费用由他来付。他回来后，妹妹告诉他葬礼办得很体面，交给他一张总计8,000美元的账单。他付了。一个月后他又收到殡仪馆寄来的一张10美元的账单。他也付了——又过了一个月，又收到一张同样的10美元账单。第三张10美元账单寄到时，这位困惑的男人打电话给妹妹问怎么回事。“哦，”她回答说，“我忘了告诉你。爸爸下葬时穿的是租来的西装。”",[14,2615,2616,2617,2620],{},"在我们的保险公司里，有一个未知但肯定数量巨大的”租来的西装”被埋在世界各地。我们努力精确估算这些账单的金额。十年或二十年后，我们甚至能大致判断出我们现在的估算偏差有多大。但即便是",[875,2618,2619],{},"那个","判断也可能让人意想不到。我个人认为我们的准备金是充足的，但过去我也犯过好几次错。",[683,2622,2623],{"id":2623},"年度股东大会",[14,2625,2626,2627,2630],{},"今年的股东大会定于5月3日，星期六。与往常一样，奎斯特中心（Qwest Center）上午7点开门，8点半放映一部伯克希尔新影片。9点半我们直接进入问答环节，（中间在奎斯特中心的展位上吃午餐休息一下）一直持续到下午3点。然后，在短暂休息后，查理和我将在3点15分召开正式的年度股东大会。如果你在当天的问答阶段决定离开，请务必在",[875,2628,2629],{},"查理","讲话时那样做。",[14,2632,2633,2634,2637],{},"离开最好的理由，当然是去",[875,2635,2636],{},"购物","。我们在会场旁边的194,300平方英尺的大厅里摆满了伯克希尔旗下公司的产品，助你一臂之力。去年，前来参会的27,000人各尽其力，几乎每个摊位都创下了销售纪录。但你们能做得更好。（必要时，我会锁上大门。）",[14,2639,2640],{},"今年我们将再次展示一栋克莱顿预制房屋（配备Acme砖块、Shaw地毯、Johns Manville隔热材料、MiTek连接件、Carefree遮阳篷和NFM家具）。你会发现这栋1,550平方英尺的房屋标价69,500美元，性价比惊人。在你买下房子之后，不妨再看看旁边展示的森林河公司（Forest River）的房车和浮筏船。",[14,2642,2643],{},"盖可保险（GEICO）也设有展位，来自全国各地的顶尖保险顾问随时准备为你提供车险报价。在大多数情况下，GEICO能给你一个特别的股东折扣（通常为8%）。这一特别优惠适用于我们运营的50个辖区中的45个。（补充一点：如果你已享受另一项折扣，比如特定团体折扣，这些折扣不能叠加。）带上你现有保险的详细资料，看看我们能否帮你省钱。至少你们中的50%，我相信我们做得到。",[14,2645,2646],{},"周六，在奥马哈机场，利捷航空（NetJets）将照例展出各型飞机供你们参观。到奎斯特中心的利捷展位了解飞机观赏详情。坐大巴来奥马哈，乘你的新飞机离开。而且你想带多少发胶和剪刀上飞机都行。",[14,2648,2649],{},"接下来，如果你还有余钱的话，去书虫摊位逛逛，那里有大约25种打折的图书和DVD，以《穷查理宝典》为首。在没有做任何广告或书店陈列推广的情况下，查理的书已经出人意料地卖出了近50,000册。没能来参会的朋友，可以上poorcharliesalmanack.com网站订购。",[14,2651,2652],{},"随本报告一起寄送的委托投票材料中，附有说明如何获取参加股东大会及其他活动所需凭证。至于飞机、酒店和租车预订，我们再次委托美国运通（800-799-6634）为你们提供特别协助。负责此事的卡洛尔·彼得森（Carol Pedersen）每年都为我们做了出色的工作，在此特别感谢她。酒店房间可能很紧张，但找卡洛尔准能搞定。",[14,2654,2655],{},"在内布拉斯加家具店——坐落在道奇街和太平洋街之间第72街的77英亩地块上——我们将再次推出”伯克希尔周末”特惠价格。我们11年前在NFM发起了这一特别活动，“周末”的销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到2007年的3,090万美元。这个数字比很多家具店一整年的销售额都大。",[14,2657,2658],{},"要享受伯克希尔折扣，你须在5月1日（周四）至5月5日（周一）期间购买，并出示你的年会入场券。这段时期的特惠价格甚至适用于几家通常铁律不打折的知名厂商的产品，它们本着股东周末的精神为你们破了例。我们感谢它们的配合。NFM周一至周六的营业时间为上午10点至晚上9点，周日为上午10点至下午6点。今年周六下午5点半至8点，NFM将举办一场巴哈海滩派对，供应牛肉和鸡肉塔可饼。",[14,2660,2661],{},"在波仙珠宝（Borsheim’s），我们将再次举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是5月2日（周五）下午6点至晚上10点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场——盛大售卖会——将在5月4日（周日）上午9点至下午4点举行。周六我们营业至下午6点。",[14,2663,2664],{},"整个周末波仙珠宝都将人山人海。为了方便大家，股东优惠价格从4月28日（周一）一直延续至5月10日（周六）。在此期间，请出示你的年会入场券或证明你持有伯克希尔股份的券商对账单，以表明你的股东身份。",[14,2666,2667],{},"周日，在波仙珠宝店外的帐篷里，两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫（Patrick Wolff）将蒙上眼睛，以一对六的方式接受来宾的挑战——来宾们当然可以睁大双眼。旁边，来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克（Norman Beck）将让观众目瞪口呆。此外，两位世界顶级桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼（Bob Hamman）和莎伦·奥斯伯格（Sharon Osberg）将在周日下午与我们的股东们打桥牌。",[14,2669,2670,2671,2674,2675,2678],{},"格拉茨餐厅（Gorat’s）将在5月4日（周日）再次专门为伯克希尔股东开放，服务时间为下午4点至晚上10点。去年，只有240个座位的格拉茨在股东周日服务了915顿晚餐。三天总计售出2,487份，其中656份丁骨牛排——这可是",[875,2672,2673],{},"行家","们的首选主菜。请记住，当天要来格拉茨必须提前预约。请在4月1日（",[875,2676,2677],{},"不要提前","）拨打402-551-3733预订。",[14,2680,2681],{},"周六下午4点，我们将再次为来自北美以外的股东举办招待会。每年我们的股东大会都吸引了来自全球各地的人，查理和我想确保亲自迎接这些远道而来的朋友。去年我们很高兴见到了来自数十个国家的400多位股东。任何非美国或加拿大的股东都将获得一张特别的入场券和参加这一活动的说明。",[680,2683],{},[14,2685,2686],{},"84岁的查理和77岁的我，拥有的幸运超越了我们的梦想。我们出生在美国；都有了不起的父母，确保我们获得了良好的教育；拥有美满的家庭和健康的身体；还天生带着一种”商业”基因，让我们获得的成功与许多对社会福祉做出同等甚至更大贡献的人相比完全不成比例。而且，我们长期以来一直拥有自己热爱的工作，并在无数方面得到了才华横溢、开朗乐观的同事们的帮助。对我们来说每一天都令人兴奋；难怪我们跳着踢踏舞去上班。但没有什么比在伯克希尔的年度股东大会上与我们的股东合伙人们欢聚一堂更让人快乐的了。所以请你们5月3日来奎斯特中心，参加我们一年一度的”资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节”。我们在那里恭候大家。",[14,2688,2689],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,2691,2692],{},"董事会主席",[14,2694,2695],{},"2008年2月",{"title":2697,"searchDepth":2698,"depth":2698,"links":2699},"",2,[2700,2702,2703,2704,2705,2706,2707,2708,2709,2710,2711],{"id":685,"depth":2701,"text":686},3,{"id":716,"depth":2701,"text":716},{"id":894,"depth":2701,"text":894},{"id":934,"depth":2701,"text":935},{"id":1051,"depth":2701,"text":1051},{"id":1357,"depth":2701,"text":1357},{"id":1556,"depth":2701,"text":1557},{"id":1896,"depth":2701,"text":1896},{"id":2022,"depth":2701,"text":2022},{"id":2511,"depth":2701,"text":2512},{"id":2623,"depth":2701,"text":2623},"致股东信",null,"2007年巴菲特致股东信，分析经营收益创纪录、投资收益表现及美国经济前景","md",{},true,78,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":2714},"2007 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巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":3175,"slug":3176,"category":2735,"order":3173},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3178,"slug":3179,"category":2712,"order":3180},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":3182,"slug":3183,"category":2735,"order":3180},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":3185,"slug":3186,"category":2712,"order":3187},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":3189,"slug":3190,"category":2735,"order":3187},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":3192,"slug":3193,"category":2712,"order":3194},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":3196,"slug":3197,"category":2735,"order":3194},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3199,"slug":3200,"category":2712,"order":3201},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":3203,"slug":3204,"category":2735,"order":3201},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":3206,"slug":3207,"category":2712,"order":3208},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":3210,"slug":3211,"category":2735,"order":3208},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":3213,"slug":3214,"category":2712,"order":3215},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":3217,"slug":3218,"category":2735,"order":3215},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":3220,"slug":3221,"category":2712,"order":3222},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":3224,"slug":3225,"category":2735,"order":3222},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":3227,"slug":3228,"category":2712,"order":3229},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":3231,"slug":3232,"category":2735,"order":3229},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3234,"slug":3235,"category":2712,"order":3236},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":3238,"slug":3239,"category":2735,"order":3236},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3241,"slug":3242,"category":2712,"order":3243},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":3245,"slug":3246,"category":2735,"order":3243},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3248,"slug":3249,"category":2712,"order":3250},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":3252,"slug":3253,"category":2735,"order":3250},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":3255,"slug":3256,"category":2712,"order":3257},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":3259,"slug":3260,"category":2735,"order":3257},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":3262,"slug":3263,"category":2712,"order":3264},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":3266,"slug":3267,"category":2735,"order":3264},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":3269,"slug":3270,"category":2712,"order":3271},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":3273,"slug":3274,"category":2735,"order":3271},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":3276,"slug":3277,"category":2712,"order":3278},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":3280,"slug":3281,"category":2735,"order":3278},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3283,"slug":3284,"category":2712,"order":3285},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":3287,"slug":3288,"category":2735,"order":3285},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":3290,"slug":3291,"category":2712,"order":3292},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":3294,"slug":3295,"category":2735,"order":3292},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":3297,"slug":3298,"category":2712,"order":3299},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":3301,"slug":3302,"category":2735,"order":3299},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":3304,"slug":3305,"category":2712,"order":3306},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":3308,"slug":3309,"category":2735,"order":3306},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":3311,"slug":3312,"category":2712,"order":3313},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":3315,"slug":3316,"category":2735,"order":3313},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":3318,"slug":3319,"category":2712,"order":3320},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":3322,"slug":3323,"category":2735,"order":3320},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3325,"slug":3326,"category":2712,"order":3327},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":3329,"slug":3330,"category":2735,"order":3327},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":3332,"slug":3333,"category":2712,"order":3334},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":3336,"slug":3337,"category":2735,"order":3334},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":3339,"slug":3340,"category":2712,"order":3341},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":3343,"slug":3344,"category":2735,"order":3341},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3346,"slug":3347,"category":2712,"order":3348},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":3350,"slug":3351,"category":2735,"order":3348},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3353,"slug":3354,"category":2712,"order":3355},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":3357,"slug":3358,"category":2735,"order":3355},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":3360,"slug":3361,"category":2712,"order":3362},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":3364,"slug":3365,"category":2735,"order":3362},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":5,"slug":2722,"category":2712,"order":2718},{"title":3368,"slug":3369,"category":2735,"order":2718},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":3371,"slug":3372,"category":2712,"order":3373},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":3375,"slug":3376,"category":2735,"order":3373},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":3378,"slug":3379,"category":2712,"order":3380},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":3382,"slug":3383,"category":2735,"order":3380},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":3385,"slug":3386,"category":2712,"order":3387},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":3389,"slug":3390,"category":2735,"order":3387},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3392,"slug":3393,"category":2712,"order":3394},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":3396,"slug":3397,"category":2735,"order":3394},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3399,"slug":3400,"category":2712,"order":3401},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":3403,"slug":3404,"category":2735,"order":3401},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3406,"slug":3407,"category":2712,"order":3408},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":3410,"slug":3411,"category":2735,"order":3408},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":3413,"slug":3414,"category":2712,"order":3415},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":3417,"slug":3418,"category":2735,"order":3415},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":3420,"slug":3421,"category":2712,"order":3422},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":3424,"slug":3425,"category":2735,"order":3422},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":3427,"slug":3428,"category":2712,"order":3429},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":3431,"slug":3432,"category":2735,"order":3429},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":3434,"slug":3435,"category":2712,"order":3436},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":3438,"slug":3439,"category":2735,"order":3436},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":3441,"slug":3442,"category":2712,"order":3443},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":3445,"slug":3446,"category":2735,"order":3443},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3448,"slug":3449,"category":2712,"order":3450},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":3452,"slug":3453,"category":2735,"order":3450},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":3455,"slug":3456,"category":2712,"order":3457},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":3459,"slug":3460,"category":2735,"order":3457},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":3462,"slug":3463,"category":2712,"order":3464},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":3466,"slug":3467,"category":2735,"order":3464},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3469,"slug":3470,"category":2712,"order":3471},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":3473,"slug":3474,"category":2735,"order":3471},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":3476,"slug":3477,"category":2712,"order":3478},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":3480,"slug":3481,"category":2735,"order":3478},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3483,"slug":3484,"category":2712,"order":3485},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":3487,"slug":3488,"category":2735,"order":3485},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":3490,"slug":3491,"category":2712,"order":3492},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":3494,"slug":3495,"category":2735,"order":3492},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":3497,"slug":3498,"category":2712,"order":3499},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":3501,"slug":3502,"category":2735,"order":3499},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3504,"slug":3505,"category":2712,"order":3506},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":3508,"slug":3509,"category":2735,"order":3506},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3511,"slug":3512,"category":2712,"order":3513},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":3515,"slug":3516,"category":2735,"order":3513},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3518,"slug":3519,"category":2712,"order":3520},"2026 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