[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":5135},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":3600,"library-sidebar-dao":4602,"library-sidebar-models":4903},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":3586,"date":3587,"description":3588,"extension":3589,"meta":3590,"navigation":3591,"order":3592,"path":3593,"seo":3594,"seoDescription":3588,"seoTitle":3595,"slug":3596,"stem":3597,"__hash__":3598,"_collection":3599},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2016 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":3571},"minimark",[9,13,20,784,798,803,806,809,812,815,827,834,841,844,847,858,865,868,871,874,881,888,891,894,899,1095,1113,1116,1119,1122,1125,1132,1135,1138,1145,1148,1155,1157,1160,1163,1166,1177,1184,1187,1190,1193,1200,1203,1206,1209,1212,1215,1217,1220,1223,1226,1233,1236,1239,1242,1245,1300,1303,1317,1324,1331,1338,1341,1348,1363,1369,1379,1393,1395,1398,1401,1408,1415,1417,1420,1426,1429,1431,1434,1445,1452,1455,1462,1473,1476,1479,1481,1484,1487,1490,1597,1600,1603,1606,1617,1623,1626,1629,1636,1642,1645,1648,1651,1654,1758,1969,1972,1975,1982,1989,1993,1996,2001,2151,2156,2253,2256,2263,2266,2269,2272,2275,2277,2280,2283,2286,2296,2303,2306,2308,2315,2326,2333,2336,2339,2342,2349,2355,2358,2365,2368,2371,2374,2385,2388,2391,2398,2405,2408,2411,2414,2417,2420,2423,2548,2554,2557,2560,2863,2868,2871,2878,2880,2887,2890,2893,2895,2898,2901,2908,2910,2924,2931,2933,2936,2947,2950,2953,2956,2960,2963,2966,2969,2972,2975,2978,2985,2988,2991,2994,2997,3000,3244,3247,3250,3253,3256,3268,3271,3278,3281,3287,3292,3297,3302,3307,3314,3321,3324,3327,3333,3340,3343,3345,3352,3355,3357,3360,3367,3370,3373,3380,3383,3386,3389,3400,3402,3409,3412,3415,3418,3421,3424,3427,3437,3440,3443,3446,3449,3452,3455,3462,3469,3472,3475,3480,3483,3486,3489,3492,3499,3517,3520,3527,3530,3533,3536,3539,3541,3544,3547,3550,3553,3556,3559,3562,3565,3568],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2016-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比",[30,37,38],{},"伯克希尔每股市值年度变动百分比",[30,40,41],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,227,241,255,269,283,297,310,324,338,352,366,379,393,407,421,434,448,462,476,489,503,517,531,545,558,571,584,598,611,624,635,649,663,676,689,703,716,730,743,756,770],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"49.5",[48,58,59],{},"10.0",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(3.4)",[48,72,73],{},"(11.7)",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"13.3",[48,86,87],{},"30.9",[27,89,90,93,96,99],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,98],{},"77.8",[48,100,81],{},[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"19.4",[48,113,114],{},"(8.4)",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"(4.6)",[48,127,128],{},"3.9",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"80.5",[48,141,142],{},"14.6",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"8.1",[48,155,156],{},"18.9",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(2.5)",[48,169,170],{},"(14.8)",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(48.7)",[48,183,184],{},"(26.4)",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"2.5",[48,197,198],{},"37.2",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"129.3",[48,211,212],{},"23.6",[27,214,215,218,221,224],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,220],{},"31.9",[48,222,223],{},"46.8",[48,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[27,228,229,232,235,238],{},[48,230,231],{},"1978",[48,233,234],{},"24.0",[48,236,237],{},"14.5",[48,239,240],{},"6.4",[27,242,243,246,249,252],{},[48,244,245],{},"1979",[48,247,248],{},"35.7",[48,250,251],{},"102.5",[48,253,254],{},"18.2",[27,256,257,260,263,266],{},[48,258,259],{},"1980",[48,261,262],{},"19.3",[48,264,265],{},"32.8",[48,267,268],{},"32.3",[27,270,271,274,277,280],{},[48,272,273],{},"1981",[48,275,276],{},"31.4",[48,278,279],{},"31.8",[48,281,282],{},"(5.0)",[27,284,285,288,291,294],{},[48,286,287],{},"1982",[48,289,290],{},"40.0",[48,292,293],{},"38.4",[48,295,296],{},"21.4",[27,298,299,302,304,307],{},[48,300,301],{},"1983",[48,303,268],{},[48,305,306],{},"69.0",[48,308,309],{},"22.4",[27,311,312,315,318,321],{},[48,313,314],{},"1984",[48,316,317],{},"13.6",[48,319,320],{},"(2.7)",[48,322,323],{},"6.1",[27,325,326,329,332,335],{},[48,327,328],{},"1985",[48,330,331],{},"48.2",[48,333,334],{},"93.7",[48,336,337],{},"31.6",[27,339,340,343,346,349],{},[48,341,342],{},"1986",[48,344,345],{},"26.1",[48,347,348],{},"14.2",[48,350,351],{},"18.6",[27,353,354,357,360,363],{},[48,355,356],{},"1987",[48,358,359],{},"19.5",[48,361,362],{},"4.6",[48,364,365],{},"5.1",[27,367,368,371,374,376],{},[48,369,370],{},"1988",[48,372,373],{},"20.1",[48,375,206],{},[48,377,378],{},"16.6",[27,380,381,384,387,390],{},[48,382,383],{},"1989",[48,385,386],{},"44.4",[48,388,389],{},"84.6",[48,391,392],{},"31.7",[27,394,395,398,401,404],{},[48,396,397],{},"1990",[48,399,400],{},"7.4",[48,402,403],{},"(23.1)",[48,405,406],{},"(3.1)",[27,408,409,412,415,418],{},[48,410,411],{},"1991",[48,413,414],{},"39.6",[48,416,417],{},"35.6",[48,419,420],{},"30.5",[27,422,423,426,428,431],{},[48,424,425],{},"1992",[48,427,67],{},[48,429,430],{},"29.8",[48,432,433],{},"7.6",[27,435,436,439,442,445],{},[48,437,438],{},"1993",[48,440,441],{},"14.3",[48,443,444],{},"38.9",[48,446,447],{},"10.1",[27,449,450,453,456,459],{},[48,451,452],{},"1994",[48,454,455],{},"13.9",[48,457,458],{},"25.0",[48,460,461],{},"1.3",[27,463,464,467,470,473],{},[48,465,466],{},"1995",[48,468,469],{},"43.1",[48,471,472],{},"57.4",[48,474,475],{},"37.6",[27,477,478,481,483,486],{},[48,479,480],{},"1996",[48,482,279],{},[48,484,485],{},"6.2",[48,487,488],{},"23.0",[27,490,491,494,497,500],{},[48,492,493],{},"1997",[48,495,496],{},"34.1",[48,498,499],{},"34.9",[48,501,502],{},"33.4",[27,504,505,508,511,514],{},[48,506,507],{},"1998",[48,509,510],{},"48.3",[48,512,513],{},"52.2",[48,515,516],{},"28.6",[27,518,519,522,525,528],{},[48,520,521],{},"1999",[48,523,524],{},"0.5",[48,526,527],{},"(19.9)",[48,529,530],{},"21.0",[27,532,533,536,539,542],{},[48,534,535],{},"2000",[48,537,538],{},"6.5",[48,540,541],{},"26.6",[48,543,544],{},"(9.1)",[27,546,547,550,553,555],{},[48,548,549],{},"2001",[48,551,552],{},"(6.2)",[48,554,538],{},[48,556,557],{},"(11.9)",[27,559,560,563,565,568],{},[48,561,562],{},"2002",[48,564,59],{},[48,566,567],{},"(3.8)",[48,569,570],{},"(22.1)",[27,572,573,576,578,581],{},[48,574,575],{},"2003",[48,577,530],{},[48,579,580],{},"15.8",[48,582,583],{},"28.7",[27,585,586,589,592,595],{},[48,587,588],{},"2004",[48,590,591],{},"10.5",[48,593,594],{},"4.3",[48,596,597],{},"10.9",[27,599,600,603,605,608],{},[48,601,602],{},"2005",[48,604,240],{},[48,606,607],{},"0.8",[48,609,610],{},"4.9",[27,612,613,616,619,622],{},[48,614,615],{},"2006",[48,617,618],{},"18.4",[48,620,621],{},"24.1",[48,623,580],{},[27,625,626,629,631,633],{},[48,627,628],{},"2007",[48,630,81],{},[48,632,583],{},[48,634,178],{},[27,636,637,640,643,646],{},[48,638,639],{},"2008",[48,641,642],{},"(9.6)",[48,644,645],{},"(31.8)",[48,647,648],{},"(37.0)",[27,650,651,654,657,660],{},[48,652,653],{},"2009",[48,655,656],{},"19.8",[48,658,659],{},"2.7",[48,661,662],{},"26.5",[27,664,665,668,671,673],{},[48,666,667],{},"2010",[48,669,670],{},"13.0",[48,672,296],{},[48,674,675],{},"15.1",[27,677,678,681,683,686],{},[48,679,680],{},"2011",[48,682,362],{},[48,684,685],{},"(4.7)",[48,687,688],{},"2.1",[27,690,691,694,697,700],{},[48,692,693],{},"2012",[48,695,696],{},"14.4",[48,698,699],{},"16.8",[48,701,702],{},"16.0",[27,704,705,708,710,713],{},[48,706,707],{},"2013",[48,709,254],{},[48,711,712],{},"32.7",[48,714,715],{},"32.4",[27,717,718,721,724,727],{},[48,719,720],{},"2014",[48,722,723],{},"8.3",[48,725,726],{},"27.0",[48,728,729],{},"13.7",[27,731,732,735,737,740],{},[48,733,734],{},"2015",[48,736,240],{},[48,738,739],{},"(12.5)",[48,741,742],{},"1.4",[27,744,745,748,751,754],{},[48,746,747],{},"2016",[48,749,750],{},"10.7",[48,752,753],{},"23.4",[48,755,122],{},[27,757,758,761,764,767],{},[48,759,760],{},"年复合增长率——1965-2016",[48,762,763],{},"19.0%",[48,765,766],{},"20.8%",[48,768,769],{},"9.7%",[27,771,772,775,778,781],{},[48,773,774],{},"累计总收益——1964-2016",[48,776,777],{},"884,319%",[48,779,780],{},"1,972,595%",[48,782,783],{},"12,717%",[14,785,786,789,790,793,794,797],{},[17,787,788],{},"注释："," 数据按日历年度统计，以下情况除外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市值而非成本与市价孰低法计量所持权益证券。本表中，1978年及之前的伯克希尔业绩已按新准则进行了追溯调整。其他方面均使用最初公布的数字。标普500指数的数字是",[17,791,792],{},"税前","的，而伯克希尔的数字是",[17,795,796],{},"税后","的。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，那么在该指数取得正收益的年份，其业绩将落后于标普500指数；但在该指数为负收益的年份，其业绩将优于标普500指数。长期累计下来，税收成本将导致显著的业绩滞后。",[799,800,802],"h3",{"id":801},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,804,805],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) 所有股东：",[14,807,808],{},"2016年伯克希尔的净资产增加了275亿美元，A股和B股的每股账面价值增长了10.7%。(*)自现任管理层接手的52年以来，每股账面价值已从19美元增长至172,108美元，年复合增长率约为19%。",[14,810,811],{},"(*): 本报告中使用的所有每股数据均针对伯克希尔A股。B股的数据为A股的1\u002F1500。",[14,813,814],{},"在这52年的前半段，伯克希尔的账面价值大致等于真正重要的那个数字——企业的内在价值。这两个数字之所以相近，是因为当时我们的大部分资源都配置在有价证券上，这些证券会定期按市场报价重估（扣除出售时应缴的税款）。用华尔街的行话说，当时我们的资产负债表在很大程度上是”按市值计价”的。",[14,816,817,818,822,823,826],{},"然而到了1990年代初，我们的重心转向了对企业的全资拥有，这一转变大大降低了资产负债表数字的参考意义。之所以出现这种脱节，是因为适用于我们控股企业的通用会计准则（GAAP）与评估有价证券所用的准则在许多重要方面大不相同。具体来说，我们",[819,820,821],"em",{},"拥有的企业","在会计处理上要求：当”输家”的失败变得明显时，其账面价值必须减记；而”赢家”的账面价值却",[819,824,825],{},"永远不会","被上调。",[14,828,829,830,833],{},"我们经历过这两种情况：就像婚姻一样，企业并购往往在说了”我愿意”",[819,831,832],{},"之后","才冒出各种意外。我做过一些愚蠢的收购，为所收购企业的经济商誉支付了过高的价格，这后来导致了商誉减记，进而拉低了伯克希尔的账面价值。在我们收购的企业中，也有一些赢家——其中少数几个是大赢家——但这些赢家的增值一分钱都没有反映出来。",[14,835,836,837,840],{},"我们对这种不对称的会计处理没有异议。但随着时间推移，它必然会拉大伯克希尔内在价值与账面价值之间的差距。如今，我们赢家企业中那些巨大且不断增长的未记录收益，为伯克希尔的股票创造了",[819,838,839],{},"远远","超过账面价值的内在价值。这种超出部分在我们的财产意外险业务中尤为巨大，在其他许多业务中也相当可观。",[14,842,843],{},"随着时间推移，股价会向内在价值靠拢。伯克希尔就是如此，这也解释了为什么公司52年来的市值涨幅——请看前页——远远超过了账面价值的涨幅。",[799,845,846],{"id":846},"我们希望达成的目标",[14,848,849,850,853,854,857],{},"伯克希尔副董事长兼我的搭档查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 跟我，预计伯克希尔",[819,851,852],{},"经常性的","每股盈利能力每年都会增长。当然，",[819,855,856],{},"实际","收益有时会因为美国经济的周期性疲软而下降。此外，即使大多数美国企业表现良好，保险业的特大灾难或其他行业的特定事件，也可能拖累伯克希尔的收益。",[14,859,860,861,864],{},"但我们的工作就是随着时间推移实现显著增长，不管过程如何颠簸。毕竟，作为",[819,862,863],{},"你们","资本的管理人，伯克希尔的董事们选择了保留全部收益不做分配。事实上，2015年和2016年，伯克希尔的留存收益金额在美国企业中均位列第一，每年的再投资金额比第二名多出数十亿美元。这些再投资的资金必须赚回自己的存在价值。",[14,866,867],{},"有些年份，我们潜在盈利能力的提升会微乎其微；而偶尔，收银机会大声响起。查理和我并没有什么增加收益的神奇方案，只是敢做大梦，并且在精神上和财务上做好准备，一旦机会出现就迅速出击。大约每隔十年左右，乌云就会笼罩经济天空，然后短暂地下起金子雨。当这种倾盆金雨降临时，我们必须扛着大澡盆冲出门去，而不是拿着小汤匙。这就是我们要做的事。",[14,869,870],{},"前面我描述过我们从一家主要靠投资获利的公司，逐步转型为一家靠拥有企业来实现增值的公司。在启动这一转型时，我们迈的是小步子——做一些小规模收购，其对伯克希尔利润的影响与我们从有价证券中获得的收益相比微不足道。尽管如此谨慎，我还是犯了一个特别严重的错误：1993年以4.34亿美元收购了德克斯特鞋业 (Dexter Shoe)，该公司的价值随后迅速归零。更糟糕的是：我用伯克希尔的股票支付了收购款，给了卖方25,203股伯克希尔股票，截至2016年底这些股票的价值已超过60亿美元。",[14,872,873],{},"在那次灾难之后，又发生了三件关键事情——两件好事、一件坏事——让我们坚定地走上了现在的道路。1996年初，我们收购了盖可保险 (GEICO) 剩余一半的股权，这是一笔全现金交易，将我们的持股从组合投资变成了全资控股的运营业务。凭借几乎无限的增长潜力，GEICO很快成为我们的核心，我相信围绕它打造出的，是当今世界首屈一指的财产意外险业务。",[14,875,876,877,880],{},"不幸的是，在收购GEICO之后，1998年末我又愚蠢地用伯克希尔的股票——",[819,878,879],{},"一大船","股票——收购了通用再保险 (General Reinsurance)。在经历了早期一些问题之后，通用再保险已经成为一家我们珍视的优秀保险公司。尽管如此，我在收购时发行了272,200股伯克希尔股票，使得我们的流通股大幅增加了21.8%，这是一个严重的错误。我的错误导致伯克希尔的股东付出的远远多于他们得到的（尽管《圣经》赞许这种”施比受更有福”的行为，但当你在做企业收购时，上帝可不会因此赐福给你）。(1)",[14,882,883,884,887],{},"2000年初，为了弥补那次愚蠢的行为，我收购了中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy) 76%的股份（后增持至90%），这是一家管理出色的公用事业公司，为我们带来了许多盈利丰厚且对社会有益的投资机会。通过对中美能源的",[819,885,886],{},"现金","收购——我在学教训了——我们坚定地走上了如今的道路：(1) 继续壮大我们的保险业务；(2) 积极收购大型且多元化的非保险企业；(3) 主要用内部产生的现金来完成收购。（如今，我宁愿准备做结肠镜检查，也不愿意发行伯克希尔的股票。）",[14,889,890],{},"在1998年之后的时期里，尽管我们有意淡化了债券和股票的投资组合，但它的规模依然持续增长，并为我们带来了丰厚的资本利得、利息和股息。这些投资收益为我们收购企业提供了重要的资金来源。虽然方式不太常规，但伯克希尔这种双管齐下的资本配置方式确实给了我们实实在在的优势。",[14,892,893],{},"以下是我们自1999年——业务转型真正开始的那一年——以来的财务记录。在这18年中，伯克希尔的流通股仅增长了8.3%，其中大部分增长来自我们收购BNSF铁路 (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) 时。我很高兴地说，那是一次非常有意义的股票发行。",[14,895,896],{},[17,897,898],{},"税后收益（单位：十亿美元）",[21,900,901,913],{},[24,902,903],{},[27,904,905,907,910],{},[30,906,32],{},[30,908,909],{},"经营收益 (1)",[30,911,912],{},"资本利得 (2)",[43,914,915,925,935,945,955,965,975,985,995,1005,1015,1025,1035,1045,1055,1065,1075,1085],{},[27,916,917,919,922],{},[48,918,521],{},[48,920,921],{},"0.67",[48,923,924],{},"0.89",[27,926,927,929,932],{},[48,928,535],{},[48,930,931],{},"0.94",[48,933,934],{},"2.39",[27,936,937,939,942],{},[48,938,549],{},[48,940,941],{},"(0.13)",[48,943,944],{},"0.92",[27,946,947,949,952],{},[48,948,562],{},[48,950,951],{},"3.72",[48,953,954],{},"0.57",[27,956,957,959,962],{},[48,958,575],{},[48,960,961],{},"5.42",[48,963,964],{},"2.73",[27,966,967,969,972],{},[48,968,588],{},[48,970,971],{},"5.05",[48,973,974],{},"2.26",[27,976,977,979,982],{},[48,978,602],{},[48,980,981],{},"5.00",[48,983,984],{},"3.53",[27,986,987,989,992],{},[48,988,615],{},[48,990,991],{},"9.31",[48,993,994],{},"1.71",[27,996,997,999,1002],{},[48,998,628],{},[48,1000,1001],{},"9.63",[48,1003,1004],{},"3.58",[27,1006,1007,1009,1012],{},[48,1008,639],{},[48,1010,1011],{},"9.64",[48,1013,1014],{},"(4.65)",[27,1016,1017,1019,1022],{},[48,1018,653],{},[48,1020,1021],{},"7.57",[48,1023,1024],{},"0.49",[27,1026,1027,1029,1032],{},[48,1028,667],{},[48,1030,1031],{},"11.09",[48,1033,1034],{},"1.87",[27,1036,1037,1039,1042],{},[48,1038,680],{},[48,1040,1041],{},"10.78",[48,1043,1044],{},"(0.52)",[27,1046,1047,1049,1052],{},[48,1048,693],{},[48,1050,1051],{},"12.60",[48,1053,1054],{},"2.23",[27,1056,1057,1059,1062],{},[48,1058,707],{},[48,1060,1061],{},"15.14",[48,1063,1064],{},"4.34",[27,1066,1067,1069,1072],{},[48,1068,720],{},[48,1070,1071],{},"16.55",[48,1073,1074],{},"3.32",[27,1076,1077,1079,1082],{},[48,1078,734],{},[48,1080,1081],{},"17.36",[48,1083,1084],{},"6.73",[27,1086,1087,1089,1092],{},[48,1088,747],{},[48,1090,1091],{},"17.57",[48,1093,1094],{},"6.50",[1096,1097,1098,1106],"ol",{},[1099,1100,1101,1102,1105],"li",{},"经营收益包含投资产生的利息和股息，但",[819,1103,1104],{},"不包括","资本损益。",[1099,1107,1108,1109,1112],{},"资本利得在很大程度上只包含",[819,1110,1111],{},"已实现的","资本损益。但当GAAP准则要求时，部分未实现的资本损益也包括在内。",[14,1114,1115],{},"我们预计投资收益将继续保持可观——虽然时间上完全不可预测——并且将为企业收购提供大量资金。与此同时，伯克希尔旗下优秀的运营CEO团队将致力于增加各自管理业务的收益，有时还会通过补强收购来助力增长。由于我们避免发行伯克希尔的股票，收益的任何增长都将转化为等比例的每股收益增长。",[1117,1118],"hr",{},[14,1120,1121],{},"我们大幅提高伯克希尔经常性收益的努力将继续得到美国经济活力的助推——在我们整个管理期间一直如此。用一个词来概括我们国家取得的成就，那就是：奇迹。从240年前白手起家——这段时间还不到我这辈子的三倍——美国人将人类智慧、市场体系、一波又一波才华横溢且雄心勃勃的移民，以及法治精神融合在一起，创造出了我们先辈做梦都想不到的丰饶。",[14,1123,1124],{},"你们不需要成为经济学家就能明白我们的体系运转得有多好。看看你们周围吧。看看那7,500万套自有住房、肥沃的农田、2.6亿辆汽车、高产的工厂、一流的医疗中心、人才济济的大学，你说什么都有——它们都代表着美国人从1776年贫瘠的土地、简陋的房屋和微薄的产出中获得的净收益。美国白手起家，已经累积了90万亿美元的财富。",[14,1126,1127,1128,1131],{},"当然，拥有住房、汽车和其他资产的美国人往往会大量举债来购买这些东西。然而，如果一个资产所有者违约了，他的资产并不会消失或丧失用途。通常情况下，所有权会转移给一家美国借贷机构，然后由该机构将其转卖给另一位美国买家。我们",[819,1129,1130],{},"国家","的财富仍然完好无损。正如格特鲁德·斯坦因 (Gertrude Stein) 所说：“钱总在那里，只是装钱的口袋不断变换。”",[14,1133,1134],{},"最重要的是，正是我们的市场体系——一个巧妙地引导资本、智慧和劳动力流动的经济交通警察——创造了美国的富足。这个体系也是分配奖励的主要机制。此外，政府通过联邦、州和地方税收的再分配，也决定了一大部分财富的流向。",[14,1136,1137],{},"例如，美国已经决定，那些处于盛年的公民应该帮助老年人和年幼者。这类帮助——有时被庄严地称为”权利”——通常被认为是面向老年人的。但别忘了，美国每年出生的400万婴儿也有权享受公共教育。这项社会承诺主要由地方政府出资，每个婴儿大约花费15万美元。每年的总开支超过6,000亿美元，约占GDP的3.5%。",[14,1139,1140,1141,1144],{},"无论我们的财富如何分配，你们所看到的这些令人难以置信的财富几乎全部属于美国人。当然，外国人也拥有或对我们的一小部分财富享有权益。不过，这些持有量对我们的国家资产负债表无关紧要：",[819,1142,1143],{},"我们的","公民所拥有的海外资产价值大致相当。",[14,1146,1147],{},"我们应该强调，早期的美国人并不比在他们之前辛苦劳作了一个又一个世纪的人们更聪明或更勤奋。但那些富有冒险精神的先驱者创造了一个能够释放人类潜能的体系，而他们的后人则在此基础上不断完善。",[14,1149,1150,1151,1154],{},"这台经济创造引擎将在遥远的未来为我们的子孙后代带来越来越多的财富。是的，财富的积累时不时会被短暂打断。但它",[819,1152,1153],{},"不会","被阻止。我要重复过去说过的话，将来也会继续说：今天在美国出生的孩子是有史以来最幸运的一代人。",[1117,1156],{},[14,1158,1159],{},"美国的经济成就为股东们带来了惊人的利润。在整个20世纪，道琼斯工业平均指数从66点涨到了11,497点，实现了17,320%的资本收益，加上持续增长的股息，回报更是可观。这一趋势仍在继续：截至2016年底，该指数又上涨了72%，达到19,763点。",[14,1161,1162],{},"美国企业——因而一篮子美国股票——在未来几年几乎肯定会比现在值钱得多。创新、生产力提升、企业家精神和充裕的资本将确保这一点。那些无处不在的悲观论者可能靠贩卖他们的黯淡预测发财。但如果他们真按自己兜售的废话行动，那只有上帝能帮他们了。",[14,1164,1165],{},"当然，许多公司会落伍，一些公司会倒闭。这种优胜劣汰正是市场活力的产物。而且，未来若干年偶尔会出现严重的市场下跌——甚至恐慌——几乎所有股票都会受到冲击。没人能告诉你们这些灾难何时发生——我做不到，查理做不到，经济学家做不到，媒体更做不到。纽约联邦储备银行的梅格·麦康内尔 (Meg McConnell) 曾精辟地描述了恐慌的现实：“我们花了大量时间寻找系统性风险；但事实上，往往是它先找到我们。”",[14,1167,1168,1169,1172,1173,1176],{},"在那些可怕的时期，你们永远不应该忘记两件事：第一，广泛的恐惧是投资者的",[819,1170,1171],{},"朋友","，因为它会送来便宜货；第二，",[819,1174,1175],{},"个人","的恐惧是你的敌人。而且它完全没有必要。那些避免高昂且不必要费用、只是长期安静地持有一批大型且财务保守的美国企业的投资者，几乎肯定会做得不错。",[14,1178,1179,1180,1183],{},"至于伯克希尔，我们的体量决定了无法取得",[819,1181,1182],{},"出色","的回报：随着资产规模增大，预期回报率会下降。尽管如此，伯克希尔良好的企业组合，加上公司坚不可摧的财务实力和以股东利益为导向的企业文化，应该能交出不错的成绩单。低于这个标准，我们不会满足。",[799,1185,1186],{"id":1186},"股票回购",[14,1188,1189],{},"在投资界，关于股票回购的讨论往往火药味十足。但我建议这场辩论的参与者们先深吸一口气：评估回购是否可取，并没有那么复杂。",[14,1191,1192],{},"从退出股东的角度来看，回购总是有利的。虽然每天回购对股价的影响通常微乎其微，但对卖方来说，市场上多一个买家总是好事。",[14,1194,1195,1196,1199],{},"然而，对于继续持有的股东来说，回购只在股价低于内在价值时才有意义。遵循这一规则的话，剩余的每一股都会立刻获得内在价值的提升。打个简单的比方：如果一家价值3,000美元的企业有三个平等的合伙人，其中一个以900美元被公司买下股份，那么另外两个合伙人各自立刻获得50美元的增值。但如果退出的合伙人拿到了1,100美元，继续持有的两个合伙人就各亏50美元了。同样的数学道理也适用于企业及其股东。因此，回购行为对继续持有的股东来说究竟是增值还是毁值，",[819,1197,1198],{},"完全","取决于回购价格。",[14,1201,1202],{},"令人费解的是，企业宣布回购时几乎从不提及一个”超过这个价格就不回购了”的上限。如果管理层在收购外部企业，情况肯定不会如此。在那种情况下，价格永远是买或不买的关键考量因素。",[14,1204,1205],{},"然而，当CEO或董事会在回购自家公司一小部分股权时，他们往往对价格视若无睹。试想一下：如果他们管理的是一家只有几个股东的私人企业，要评估是否明智地买下其中一个股东的股份——他们还会这样忽视价格吗？当然不会。",[14,1207,1208],{},"有一点很重要：即使公司股价被低估，也有两种情况下不应该进行回购。第一种情况是，企业需要所有可用资金来保护或扩展自身运营，同时又不愿意进一步增加负债。这时，内部资金需求应当优先。这一例外当然有个前提：在完成必要支出后，企业仍然拥有光明的前景。",[14,1210,1211],{},"第二种例外情况不太常见：当一项企业收购（或其他投资机会）提供的价值远高于回购自家低估股票时。很久以前，伯克希尔经常不得不在这些选项中做取舍。以我们目前的规模，这个问题已经不太可能出现了。",[14,1213,1214],{},"我的建议是：在讨论回购之前，CEO和董事会应该手拉手站起来异口同声地宣布：“在一个价格上明智的事，在另一个价格上就是愚蠢的。”",[1117,1216],{},[14,1218,1219],{},"回顾一下伯克希尔自己的回购政策：我被授权在账面价值的120%或更低时大量购买伯克希尔的股票，因为董事会已经得出结论——按这个价位回购，显然能给继续持有的股东带来立竿见影的实质性收益。据我们估计，120%的账面价值相对于伯克希尔的内在价值有着很大的折让，这个价差是合适的，因为内在价值的计算本身无法做到精确。",[14,1221,1222],{},"获得这一授权并不意味着我们会在120%的比率上去”托”股价。如果达到这一水平，我们会尝试在”以增值的价格进行有意义回购“和”不过度影响市场”这两个目标之间取得平衡。",[14,1224,1225],{},"迄今为止，回购我们的股票被证明是一件很难做到的事。这很可能是因为我们已经明确描述了回购政策，从而向市场传递了我们的看法——伯克希尔的内在价值远高于120%的账面价值。如果是这样，那也挺好。查理和我更愿意看到伯克希尔的股价在内在价值附近的一个较窄区间内波动，既不希望它卖出不合理的高价——拥有对自己的买入感到失望的股东可不是什么好事——也不希望价格太低。而且，折价买下”合伙人”的股份也不是一种让人特别愉快的赚钱方式。尽管如此，市场环境可能会创造出一种对继续持有的股东和退出的股东都有利的回购机会。如果出现这种情况，我们随时准备行动。",[14,1227,1228,1229,1232],{},"本节的最后一个观察：随着回购话题越来越火热，一些人几乎把它说成了反美行为——把它定性为把生产性事业所需资金挪作他用的企业不端行为。事实根本不是这样：如今美国企业和私人投资者都拥有大量寻求合理配置的资金。最近几年我没有看到",[819,1230,1231],{},"任何","诱人的项目因为缺乏资本而夭折。（如果你有这样的项目，请给我们打电话。）",[799,1234,1235],{"id":1235},"保险业务",[14,1237,1238],{},"现在让我们看看伯克希尔的各项业务，从我们最重要的板块——保险业务开始。",[14,1240,1241],{},"自1967年我们以860万美元收购国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 及其姊妹公司国家火灾与海事保险公司 (National Fire & Marine) 以来，财产意外险 (“P\u002FC”) 业务一直是推动我们扩张的引擎。如今，按净资产衡量，国民保险公司是全世界最大的财产意外险公司。",[14,1243,1244],{},"我们当初被财产意外险业务吸引的一个原因是它的财务特征：保险公司先收保费，后付理赔。在极端情况下，比如因接触石棉引发的索赔，赔付可能跨越数十年。这种先收后付的模式使得保险公司手中持有大量资金——我们称之为”浮存金“——这些钱最终要付给别人。但在此期间，保险公司可以用这些浮存金为自己的利益进行投资。虽然单个保单和理赔来来去去，但保险公司持有的浮存金规模相对于保费收入通常保持相当稳定。因此，随着我们业务的扩大，浮存金也随之增长。至于增长了多少，请看下表：",[21,1246,1247,1256],{},[24,1248,1249],{},[27,1250,1251,1253],{},[30,1252,32],{},[30,1254,1255],{},"浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1257,1258,1265,1272,1279,1286,1293],{},[27,1259,1260,1262],{},[48,1261,119],{},[48,1263,1264],{},"$ 39",[27,1266,1267,1269],{},[48,1268,259],{},[48,1270,1271],{},"237",[27,1273,1274,1276],{},[48,1275,397],{},[48,1277,1278],{},"1,632",[27,1280,1281,1283],{},[48,1282,535],{},[48,1284,1285],{},"27,871",[27,1287,1288,1290],{},[48,1289,667],{},[48,1291,1292],{},"65,832",[27,1294,1295,1297],{},[48,1296,747],{},[48,1298,1299],{},"91,577",[14,1301,1302],{},"我们最近签了一份巨额保单，将浮存金推高至1,000亿美元以上。除了这种一次性的提振之外，盖可保险和我们几家专业保险公司的浮存金几乎肯定会以不错的速度继续增长。不过，国民保险的再保险部门是若干大型尾部合同的当事方，这些合同的浮存金注定会逐步下降。",[14,1304,1305,1306,1309,1310,1313,1314,1316],{},"随着时间推移，我们可能会经历浮存金总量的下降。如果真是这样，下降也将",[819,1307,1308],{},"非常","缓慢——任何一年最多不超过3%。我们保险合同的性质决定了，我们",[819,1311,1312],{},"永远","不会面临对现金资源有重大影响的即时或短期赔付需求。这种结构是精心设计的，是我们保险公司无可匹敌的财务实力的关键组成部分。这一点",[819,1315,1312],{},"不会妥协。",[14,1318,1319,1320,1323],{},"如果我们的保费收入超过了运营费用和最终损失赔付的总和，我们的保险业务就录得承保利润，这会增加浮存金产生的投资收益。当赚到这种利润时，我们就在享受免费资金的使用——更妙的是，别人还",[819,1321,1322],{},"倒贴","我们钱来持有这些资金。",[14,1325,1326,1327,1330],{},"遗憾的是，所有保险公司都想实现这种美好结果，这导致了激烈的竞争，激烈到有时会让整个财产意外险行业遭受巨额承保",[819,1328,1329],{},"亏损","。实际上，这种亏损就是保险行业为了持有浮存金所付出的代价。竞争动态几乎决定了，尽管所有保险公司都享有浮存金带来的收益，但与美国其他行业相比，保险业仍将持续其净有形资产回报率低于正常水平的惨淡记录。",[14,1332,1333,1334,1337],{},"当前全球极低的利率水平使这一结果更加确定。几乎所有财产意外险公司的投资组合——",[819,1335,1336],{},"伯克希尔除外","——都大量集中于债券。随着那些高收益的存量债券到期，被收益率低得可怜的新债券所替代，浮存金的投资收益将持续下滑。出于这个以及其他原因，未来十年保险行业的业绩几乎肯定不如过去十年，尤其是那些专营再保险的公司。",[14,1339,1340],{},"尽管如此，我对我们自己的前景非常看好。伯克希尔无与伦比的财务实力使我们在投资方面拥有远超一般保险公司的灵活性。我们所拥有的众多选择始终是一大优势；偶尔还能为我们带来重大机会。当别人受到限制时，我们的选择反而扩大了。",[14,1342,1343,1344,1347],{},"此外，我们的财产意外险公司拥有出色的承保记录。伯克希尔现已连续14年实现承保盈利，期间税前承保收益累计达280亿美元。这种记录并非偶然：严格的风险评估是我们",[819,1345,1346],{},"所有","保险经理人每天的核心关注点。他们深知，虽然浮存金很有价值，但其优势完全可能被糟糕的承保结果所吞噬。所有保险公司都把承保纪律挂在嘴边。而在伯克希尔，这是一种信仰，旧约风格的。",[14,1349,1350,1351,1354,1355,1358,1359,1362],{},"那么，浮存金如何影响内在价值？当计算伯克希尔的",[819,1352,1353],{},"账面","价值时，浮存金的",[819,1356,1357],{},"全部","金额被作为",[819,1360,1361],{},"负债","扣除，就好像我们明天就要全部付出去而且无法补充一样。但把浮存金视为典型负债是一个严重的错误。它应该被看作一个循环基金。我们每天都在支付以前的理赔和相关费用——2016年向600多万索赔人支付了高达270亿美元——这减少了浮存金。但同样确定的是，我们每天都在承接新业务，这些新业务很快就会产生自己的理赔，从而补充浮存金。",[14,1364,1365,1366,1368],{},"如果我们的循环浮存金既没有成本又能长期保持——我相信会是这样——那么这项负债的真实价值",[819,1367,839],{},"低于其会计负债金额。欠着的1美元实际上永远不会离开公司——因为新业务几乎肯定会提供替代资金——这跟欠着的1美元明天就要付出去且无法收回，是截然不同的两回事。然而根据GAAP准则，这两种性质截然不同的负债被一视同仁。",[14,1370,1371,1372,1375,1376,1378],{},"部分抵消这种被夸大的负债的，是我们在收购保险公司时产生的155亿美元”商誉“资产，它计入了我们的账面价值。在很大程度上，这些商誉代表了我们为获得保险业务产生浮存金能力所支付的价格。然而，商誉的取得成本与其真实价值",[819,1373,1374],{},"毫无","关系。比方说，如果一家保险公司遭受了长期的巨额承保亏损，那么账面上的",[819,1377,1231],{},"商誉资产都应被视为一文不值，不管它当初花了多少钱。",[14,1380,1381,1382,1385,1386,1388,1389,1392],{},"幸运的是，伯克希尔不是这种情况。查理和我相信，我们保险商誉的真正经济价值——也就是如果我们要收购一家拥有",[819,1383,1384],{},"同等质量","浮存金的保险公司，我们愿意支付的价格——",[819,1387,839],{},"超过其历史账面价值。事实上，我们保险业务中155亿美元的商誉几乎全部在2000年就已经入账了，当时浮存金规模是280亿美元。而此后我们又增加了640亿美元的浮存金，这部分价值在我们的账面价值中丝毫没有体现。这笔未记录的资产是——一个",[819,1390,1391],{},"巨大的","原因——我们认为伯克希尔内在商业价值远超其账面价值的理由之一。",[1117,1394],{},[14,1396,1397],{},"伯克希尔之所以拥有如此吸引人的保险经济模式，全靠我们有一批杰出的经理人，他们经营着纪律严明的业务，在大多数情况下拥有难以复制的商业模式。让我来介绍几个主要部门。",[14,1399,1400],{},"按浮存金规模排名第一的是由阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 管理的伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团。阿吉特承保的是别人没有兴趣或没有资本去承担的风险。他的业务运作将承保能力、速度、果断以及最重要的——头脑——融为一体，在保险界独一无二。但他从不让伯克希尔暴露在与我们资源不相匹配的风险之中。",[14,1402,1403,1404,1407],{},"事实上，伯克希尔在规避风险方面",[819,1405,1406],{},"远比","大多数大型保险公司保守。举个例子，如果保险业因某场超级巨灾而遭受2,500亿美元的损失——大约是行业历史上最大损失的三倍——伯克希尔作为一个整体当年仍然很可能录得丰厚利润。我们众多的非保险收益来源能够确保这一点。此外，我们仍将坐拥充沛的现金，并且渴望在一个可能陷入混乱的保险市场中大展身手。而其他主要保险公司和再保险公司则要么亏得血流成河，要么面临破产。",[14,1409,1410,1411,1414],{},"1986年的那个周六，阿吉特走进伯克希尔的办公室时，他在保险业连一天的经验都没有。尽管如此，时任我们保险业务负责人的迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg) 把我们那个规模不大且苦苦挣扎的再保险业务的钥匙交给了他。凭此一举，迈克堪称圣人：从那以后，阿吉特为伯克希尔的股东创造了数百亿美元的价值。如果世界上有第二个阿吉特，而你可以拿我去换他，",[819,1412,1413],{},"千万别犹豫","。赶紧交换！",[1117,1416],{},[14,1418,1419],{},"我们在再保险领域的另一个重量级选手是通用再保险 (General Re)，直到不久前一直由塔德·蒙特罗斯 (Tad Montross) 管理。在通用再保险工作了39年后，塔德于2016年退休。塔德在各方面都堪称一流，我们对他感激不尽。与阿吉特共事了16年的卡拉·赖格尔 (Kara Raiguel) 现在是通用再保险的CEO。",[14,1421,1422,1423,1425],{},"从根本上说，一个稳健的保险业务必须遵循四条纪律。它必须：(1) 理解可能导致保单产生损失的",[819,1424,1346],{},"风险敞口；(2) 保守地评估风险实际发生的可能性及其可能造成的损失金额；(3) 设定一个平均而言能在覆盖预期损失和运营费用后仍能盈利的保费水平；(4) 在无法获得合理保费时愿意放弃业务。",[14,1427,1428],{},"许多保险公司能通过前三条考验，却在第四条上栽了跟头。他们就是无法对竞争对手正在大干快上的业务转过身去。那句老话——“别人都在做，我们也必须跟上”——在任何行业都会惹来麻烦，但在保险业中尤其致命。塔德从来不听那种为草率承保找的荒唐借口，卡拉也不会。",[1117,1430],{},[14,1432,1433],{},"最后是盖可保险 (GEICO)，这家公司66年前在我心中点燃了一把火（至今火焰仍在燃烧）。该公司由托尼·奈斯利 (Tony Nicely) 管理，他18岁就加入GEICO，到2016年已经服务了55年。",[14,1435,1436,1437,1440,1441,1444],{},"托尼在1993年成为GEICO的CEO，自那以后公司一飞冲天。",[819,1438,1439],{},"没有","比托尼更好的经理人了，他把才华、敬业精神",[819,1442,1443],{},"和","稳健性融为一体。（最后一项品质对持续成功至关重要。正如查理所说，拥有一个智商160的经理人很不错——除非他觉得自己的智商是180。）和阿吉特一样，托尼也为伯克希尔创造了数百亿美元的价值。",[14,1446,1447,1448,1451],{},"1951年我第一次造访GEICO时，就被这家公司相对于行业巨头所享有的巨大成本优势所震撼。我很清楚GEICO会成功，因为它",[819,1449,1450],{},"理应","成功。当时公司的年销售额是800万美元；到2016年，GEICO每三个小时就做这么多生意。",[14,1453,1454],{},"汽车保险是大多数家庭的一大开支。节省开支对他们很重要——而只有低成本运营才能做到这一点。事实上，至少有40%阅读这封信的人可以通过投保GEICO来省钱。所以停止阅读——就现在！——上 geico.com 或拨打 800-847-7536 问问吧。",[14,1456,1457,1458,1461],{},"GEICO的低成本创造了一条护城河——一条",[819,1459,1460],{},"持久的","护城河——竞争对手无法跨越。因此，公司年复一年地蚕食市场份额，到2016年底已占行业总量的约12%。而在1995年伯克希尔取得控制权时，这一比例仅为2.5%。与此同时，员工人数从8,575人增加到36,085人。",[14,1463,1464,1465,1468,1469,1472],{},"2016年下半年，GEICO的增长显著加速。整个汽车保险行业的赔付成本正以出人意料的速度攀升，一些竞争对手开始对吸收新客户失去了热情。然而，GEICO面对利润空间被压缩的应对之策是——",[819,1466,1467],{},"加快","拓展新业务。我们喜欢在太阳",[819,1470,1471],{},"落山","的时候趁机收割，因为我们知道太阳肯定还会再升起来。",[14,1474,1475],{},"在我写这封信的时候，GEICO依然势头强劲。当保险价格上涨时，人们会更多地货比三家。而当他们货比三家时，GEICO就赢了。",[14,1477,1478],{},"你打过电话了吗？（800-847-7536 或上 geico.com）",[1117,1480],{},[14,1482,1483],{},"除了三大保险业务之外，我们还拥有一系列规模较小的公司，它们主要承保商业保险。作为一个整体，这些公司构成了一个规模庞大、不断增长且价值可观的业务，始终保持承保盈利，通常比竞争对手的水平好得多。在过去14年中，该集团从承保业务赚取了47亿美元——约占保费收入的13%——同时浮存金从9.43亿美元增长到了116亿美元。",[14,1485,1486],{},"不到三年前，我们成立了伯克希尔特种保险公司 (“BHSI”)，并将其纳入这一集团。我们做的第一个决定就是让彼得·伊斯特伍德 (Peter Eastwood) 掌舵，事实证明这是一记漂亮的全垒打：我们原本预计在彼得组建全球运营所需人员和基础设施的头几年里会出现明显亏损。结果，他和他的团队在整个初创期都交出了可观的承保利润。BHSI在2016年的业务量增长了40%，达到13亿美元。在我看来，这家公司注定将成为全球一流的财产意外险公司。",[14,1488,1489],{},"以下是按业务部门划分的税前承保业绩和浮存金摘要：",[21,1491,1492,1511],{},[24,1493,1494],{},[27,1495,1496,1499,1502,1505,1508],{},[30,1497,1498],{},"保险部门",[30,1500,1501],{},"2016年承保利润（百万美元）",[30,1503,1504],{},"2015年承保利润（百万美元）",[30,1506,1507],{},"2016年末浮存金（百万美元）",[30,1509,1510],{},"2015年末浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1512,1513,1530,1547,1564,1581],{},[27,1514,1515,1518,1521,1524,1527],{},[48,1516,1517],{},"伯克希尔再保险",[48,1519,1520],{},"$ 822",[48,1522,1523],{},"$ 421",[48,1525,1526],{},"$ 45,081",[48,1528,1529],{},"$ 44,108",[27,1531,1532,1535,1538,1541,1544],{},[48,1533,1534],{},"通用再保险",[48,1536,1537],{},"190",[48,1539,1540],{},"132",[48,1542,1543],{},"17,699",[48,1545,1546],{},"18,560",[27,1548,1549,1552,1555,1558,1561],{},[48,1550,1551],{},"盖可保险",[48,1553,1554],{},"462",[48,1556,1557],{},"460",[48,1559,1560],{},"17,148",[48,1562,1563],{},"15,148",[27,1565,1566,1569,1572,1575,1578],{},[48,1567,1568],{},"其他直保",[48,1570,1571],{},"657",[48,1573,1574],{},"824",[48,1576,1577],{},"11,649",[48,1579,1580],{},"9,906",[27,1582,1583,1585,1588,1591,1594],{},[48,1584],{},[48,1586,1587],{},"$ 2,131",[48,1589,1590],{},"$ 1,837",[48,1592,1593],{},"$ 91,577",[48,1595,1596],{},"$ 87,722",[14,1598,1599],{},"伯克希尔优秀的经理人、一流的财务实力以及受宽阔护城河保护的多种商业模式，在保险界独树一帜。这些优势的组合是伯克希尔股东的巨大财富，时间只会让它更有价值。",[799,1601,1602],{"id":1602},"受监管的资本密集型业务",[14,1604,1605],{},"我们旗下的BNSF铁路和我们持股90%的伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司 (“BHE”)，与伯克希尔的其他业务有着不同的重要特征。因此，我们在这封信中为它们开辟了单独的板块，并在GAAP资产负债表和损益表中将它们的财务数据分列出来。这两家大型公司去年合计贡献了伯克希尔33%的税后经营收益。",[14,1607,1608,1609,1612,1613,1616],{},"这两家公司的一个关键特征是，它们对极其长寿且受监管的资产进行了巨额投资，部分资金来自大量长期债务，这些债务",[819,1610,1611],{},"不由","伯克希尔提供担保。实际上，它们不需要我们的信用支持，因为每家公司的盈利能力即使在最恶劣的经济条件下也远远超过其利息支付需求。比如，去年在铁路行业令人失望的一年中，BNSF的利息覆盖倍数依然超过6:1。（我们对利息覆盖倍数的定义是息税前利润与利息之比，",[819,1614,1615],{},"而非","息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA) 与利息之比——后者虽被普遍使用，但我们认为存在严重缺陷。）",[14,1618,1619,1620,1622],{},"与此同时，有两个因素确保了BHE在任何情况下偿债付息的能力。第一个是所有公用事业的共同特点：抗衰退的盈利能力，因为这些公司提供的是需求非常稳定的基本服务。第二个是只有少数公用事业才享有的优势：不断拓宽的多元化收益来源，使BHE不会因任何单一监管机构的决定而受到严重伤害。这些多元化的利润来源，加上拥有一个强大母公司的固有优势，使得BHE及其公用事业子公司得以大幅降低借贷成本。这一经济因素对我们",[819,1621,1443],{},"我们的客户都有好处。",[14,1624,1625],{},"总的来说，BHE和BNSF去年在厂房和设备方面投资了89亿美元，这是对美国基础设施相关领域做出的巨额投入。只要这些投资能承诺合理的回报，我们就乐此不疲——而在这方面，我们对未来的监管环境充满信心。",[14,1627,1628],{},"我们的信心既来自过往经验，也来自这样一个认知：社会永远需要在交通和能源方面进行巨额投资。以确保资金持续流向重大项目的方式来对待资本提供者，符合政府的自身利益。同样，以赢得监管机构及其所代表的民众认可的方式来经营业务，也符合我们的自身利益。",[14,1630,1631,1632,1635],{},"低廉的价格是让各方满意的有力方式。在爱荷华州，BHE的平均零售电价是每千瓦时7.1美分。该州另一家主要电力公司好事达 (Alliant) 的均价是9.9美分。以下是周边各州的可比行业数据：内布拉斯加州9.0美分、密苏里州9.5美分、伊利诺伊州9.2美分、明尼苏达州10.0美分。全国均价为10.3美分。我们已经向爱荷华州的居民承诺，",[819,1633,1634],{},"最早","要到2029年才会上调基本电价。我们的超低价格实实在在地为精打细算的工薪族客户省了不少钱。",[14,1637,1638,1639,1641],{},"在BNSF方面，主要铁路公司之间的价格比较要困难得多，因为它们在货物组合和平均运输距离方面存在很大差异。不过，作为一个",[819,1640,1308],{},"粗略的衡量标准，去年我们每吨英里的收入约为3美分，而其他四家美国大型铁路公司客户的运输成本从4美分到5美分不等。",[14,1643,1644],{},"BHE和BNSF都是推动环保技术的先行者。在风力发电方面，没有哪个州能与爱荷华州匹敌——去年我们在那里产生的风电发电量相当于销售给爱荷华州零售客户总电量的55%。正在推进的新风电项目将在2020年把这一比例提升到89%。",[14,1646,1647],{},"低廉的电价还带来了连锁效应。爱荷华州已经吸引了大量高科技企业入驻，一方面是因为电价低廉（数据中心用电量惊人），另一方面是因为大多数科技公司的CEO都热衷于使用可再生能源。说到风能，爱荷华州就是美国的沙特阿拉伯。",[14,1649,1650],{},"BNSF和其他一级铁路公司一样，仅用一加仑柴油就能将一吨货物运输近500英里。这种经济性使得铁路的燃油效率是卡车的四倍！此外，铁路运输大大缓解了公路拥堵，以及由此产生的需要纳税人买单的巨额维护开支。",[14,1652,1653],{},"总之，无论对我们的国家还是对伯克希尔的股东来说，BHE和BNSF所拥有的资产都具有重大意义。以下是两家公司的关键财务数据：",[21,1655,1656,1672],{},[24,1657,1658],{},[27,1659,1660,1663,1666,1669],{},[30,1661,1662],{},"BNSF铁路",[30,1664,1665],{},"2016年收益（百万美元）",[30,1667,1668],{},"2015年收益（百万美元）",[30,1670,1671],{},"2014年收益（百万美元）",[43,1673,1674,1688,1702,1716,1730,1744],{},[27,1675,1676,1679,1682,1685],{},[48,1677,1678],{},"营业收入",[48,1680,1681],{},"$ 19,829",[48,1683,1684],{},"$ 21,967",[48,1686,1687],{},"$ 23,239",[27,1689,1690,1693,1696,1699],{},[48,1691,1692],{},"营业费用",[48,1694,1695],{},"13,144",[48,1697,1698],{},"14,264",[48,1700,1701],{},"16,237",[27,1703,1704,1707,1710,1713],{},[48,1705,1706],{},"息税前营业利润",[48,1708,1709],{},"6,685",[48,1711,1712],{},"7,703",[48,1714,1715],{},"7,002",[27,1717,1718,1721,1724,1727],{},[48,1719,1720],{},"利息支出（净额）",[48,1722,1723],{},"992",[48,1725,1726],{},"928",[48,1728,1729],{},"833",[27,1731,1732,1735,1738,1741],{},[48,1733,1734],{},"所得税",[48,1736,1737],{},"2,124",[48,1739,1740],{},"2,527",[48,1742,1743],{},"2,300",[27,1745,1746,1749,1752,1755],{},[48,1747,1748],{},"净利润",[48,1750,1751],{},"$ 3,569",[48,1753,1754],{},"$ 4,248",[48,1756,1757],{},"$ 3,869",[21,1759,1760,1773],{},[24,1761,1762],{},[27,1763,1764,1767,1769,1771],{},[30,1765,1766],{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源（持股90%）",[30,1768,1665],{},[30,1770,1668],{},[30,1772,1671],{},[43,1774,1775,1789,1803,1817,1831,1845,1859,1873,1887,1901,1915,1929,1942,1955],{},[27,1776,1777,1780,1783,1786],{},[48,1778,1779],{},"英国公用事业",[48,1781,1782],{},"$ 367",[48,1784,1785],{},"$ 460",[48,1787,1788],{},"$ 527",[27,1790,1791,1794,1797,1800],{},[48,1792,1793],{},"爱荷华公用事业",[48,1795,1796],{},"392",[48,1798,1799],{},"292",[48,1801,1802],{},"270",[27,1804,1805,1808,1811,1814],{},[48,1806,1807],{},"内华达公用事业",[48,1809,1810],{},"559",[48,1812,1813],{},"586",[48,1815,1816],{},"549",[27,1818,1819,1822,1825,1828],{},[48,1820,1821],{},"太平洋公司（主要在俄勒冈和犹他）",[48,1823,1824],{},"1,105",[48,1826,1827],{},"1,026",[48,1829,1830],{},"1,010",[27,1832,1833,1836,1839,1842],{},[48,1834,1835],{},"天然气管道（北方天然气和科恩河）",[48,1837,1838],{},"413",[48,1840,1841],{},"401",[48,1843,1844],{},"379",[27,1846,1847,1850,1853,1856],{},[48,1848,1849],{},"加拿大输电公用事业",[48,1851,1852],{},"147",[48,1854,1855],{},"170",[48,1857,1858],{},"16",[27,1860,1861,1864,1867,1870],{},[48,1862,1863],{},"可再生能源项目",[48,1865,1866],{},"157",[48,1868,1869],{},"175",[48,1871,1872],{},"194",[27,1874,1875,1878,1881,1884],{},[48,1876,1877],{},"家庭服务公司",[48,1879,1880],{},"225",[48,1882,1883],{},"191",[48,1885,1886],{},"139",[27,1888,1889,1892,1895,1898],{},[48,1890,1891],{},"其他（净额）",[48,1893,1894],{},"73",[48,1896,1897],{},"49",[48,1899,1900],{},"54",[27,1902,1903,1906,1909,1912],{},[48,1904,1905],{},"公司间利息前的营业利润",[48,1907,1908],{},"3,438",[48,1910,1911],{},"3,350",[48,1913,1914],{},"3,138",[27,1916,1917,1920,1923,1926],{},[48,1918,1919],{},"利息支出",[48,1921,1922],{},"465",[48,1924,1925],{},"499",[48,1927,1928],{},"427",[27,1930,1931,1933,1936,1939],{},[48,1932,1734],{},[48,1934,1935],{},"431",[48,1937,1938],{},"481",[48,1940,1941],{},"616",[27,1943,1944,1946,1949,1952],{},[48,1945,1748],{},[48,1947,1948],{},"$ 2,542",[48,1950,1951],{},"$ 2,370",[48,1953,1954],{},"$ 2,095",[27,1956,1957,1960,1963,1966],{},[48,1958,1959],{},"归属伯克希尔的收益",[48,1961,1962],{},"$ 2,287",[48,1964,1965],{},"$ 2,132",[48,1967,1968],{},"$ 1,882",[14,1970,1971],{},"上表中出现家庭服务公司 (HomeServices) 可能看起来有些违和。但它是随1999年我们收购中美能源（现在的BHE）一并而来的——我们很庆幸买到了它。",[14,1973,1974],{},"HomeServices目前在28个州拥有38家房地产经纪公司，超过29,000名经纪人。去年它收购了四家房地产经纪公司，包括纽约州威彻斯特郡 (Westchester County) 的龙头公司霍利恩·劳伦斯 (Houlihan Lawrence)——该交易在年底后不久完成。",[14,1976,1977,1978,1981],{},"在房地产术语中，代理买方或卖方中的一方称为”一方”，买卖双方都代理则计为”两方”。去年，我们",[819,1979,1980],{},"自营的","房地产经纪人参与了24.4万笔”方”的交易，总成交额达860亿美元。",[14,1983,1984,1985,1988],{},"HomeServices还在全国各地",[819,1986,1987],{},"特许经营","了许多使用我们品牌的门店。我们看好房地产经纪的各个方面，预计在未来十年将收购更多的经纪公司和特许加盟商。",[799,1990,1992],{"id":1991},"制造服务和零售业务","制造、服务和零售业务",[14,1994,1995],{},"我们的制造、服务和零售业务销售的产品从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机，无所不包。不过，让我们先看一下整个集团的汇总资产负债表和利润表。",[14,1997,1998],{},[17,1999,2000],{},"资产负债表 2016\u002F12\u002F31（百万美元）",[21,2002,2003,2018],{},[24,2004,2005],{},[27,2006,2007,2010,2013,2016],{},[30,2008,2009],{},"资产",[30,2011,2012],{},"金额",[30,2014,2015],{},"负债与权益",[30,2017,2012],{},[43,2019,2020,2034,2048,2062,2074,2086,2098,2112,2126,2140],{},[27,2021,2022,2025,2028,2031],{},[48,2023,2024],{},"现金及等价物",[48,2026,2027],{},"$ 8,073",[48,2029,2030],{},"应付票据",[48,2032,2033],{},"$ 2,054",[27,2035,2036,2039,2042,2045],{},[48,2037,2038],{},"应收账款及应收票据",[48,2040,2041],{},"11,183",[48,2043,2044],{},"其他流动负债",[48,2046,2047],{},"12,464",[27,2049,2050,2053,2056,2059],{},[48,2051,2052],{},"存货",[48,2054,2055],{},"15,727",[48,2057,2058],{},"流动负债合计",[48,2060,2061],{},"14,518",[27,2063,2064,2067,2070,2072],{},[48,2065,2066],{},"其他流动资产",[48,2068,2069],{},"1,039",[48,2071],{},[48,2073],{},[27,2075,2076,2079,2082,2084],{},[48,2077,2078],{},"流动资产合计",[48,2080,2081],{},"36,022",[48,2083],{},[48,2085],{},[27,2087,2088,2090,2092,2095],{},[48,2089],{},[48,2091],{},[48,2093,2094],{},"递延所得税",[48,2096,2097],{},"12,044",[27,2099,2100,2103,2106,2109],{},[48,2101,2102],{},"商誉及其他无形资产",[48,2104,2105],{},"71,473",[48,2107,2108],{},"长期债务及其他负债",[48,2110,2111],{},"10,943",[27,2113,2114,2117,2120,2123],{},[48,2115,2116],{},"固定资产",[48,2118,2119],{},"18,915",[48,2121,2122],{},"少数股东权益",[48,2124,2125],{},"579",[27,2127,2128,2131,2134,2137],{},[48,2129,2130],{},"其他资产",[48,2132,2133],{},"3,183",[48,2135,2136],{},"伯克希尔权益",[48,2138,2139],{},"91,509",[27,2141,2142,2144,2147,2149],{},[48,2143],{},[48,2145,2146],{},"$ 129,593",[48,2148],{},[48,2150,2146],{},[14,2152,2153],{},[17,2154,2155],{},"利润表",[21,2157,2158,2171],{},[24,2159,2160],{},[27,2161,2162,2165,2167,2169],{},[30,2163,2164],{},"（百万美元）",[30,2166,747],{},[30,2168,734],{},[30,2170,720],{},[43,2172,2173,2186,2199,2212,2226,2240],{},[27,2174,2175,2177,2180,2183],{},[48,2176,1678],{},[48,2178,2179],{},"$ 120,059",[48,2181,2182],{},"$ 107,825",[48,2184,2185],{},"$ 97,689",[27,2187,2188,2190,2193,2196],{},[48,2189,1692],{},[48,2191,2192],{},"111,383",[48,2194,2195],{},"100,607",[48,2197,2198],{},"90,788",[27,2200,2201,2203,2206,2209],{},[48,2202,1919],{},[48,2204,2205],{},"214",[48,2207,2208],{},"103",[48,2210,2211],{},"109",[27,2213,2214,2217,2220,2223],{},[48,2215,2216],{},"税前利润",[48,2218,2219],{},"8,462",[48,2221,2222],{},"7,115",[48,2224,2225],{},"6,792",[27,2227,2228,2231,2234,2237],{},[48,2229,2230],{},"所得税及少数股东权益",[48,2232,2233],{},"2,831",[48,2235,2236],{},"2,432",[48,2238,2239],{},"2,324",[27,2241,2242,2244,2247,2250],{},[48,2243,1748],{},[48,2245,2246],{},"$ 5,631",[48,2248,2249],{},"$ 4,683",[48,2251,2252],{},"$ 4,468",[14,2254,2255],{},"这份财务汇总包括44家直接向总部汇报的企业。但其中一些公司旗下又包含许多独立运营的业务。比如，马蒙集团 (Marmon) 拥有175个独立的业务单元，服务于差异巨大的市场；伯克希尔·哈撒韦汽车 (Berkshire Hathaway Automotive) 则在9个州拥有83家经销商。",[14,2257,2258,2259,2262],{},"这个企业集群真是五花八门。以无杠杆净",[819,2260,2261],{},"有形","资产的回报率衡量，部分业务享有极高的回报率，个别情况下甚至超过100%。大多数是稳健的企业，回报率在12%到20%之间。",[14,2264,2265],{},"不过，也有少数几家——这是我在资本配置工作中犯下的严重失误——回报率非常低。多数情况下，我最初对这些公司或其所在行业的经济特征的判断就是错的，我们现在正在为我的误判付出代价。有几次，我在评估现任或后来委派的经理人的忠诚度或能力时看走了眼。我将来还会犯更多的错，这一点你们大可放心。幸运的是，查理——从来不怕直言——就在身边，对我最糟糕的点子说”不”。",[14,2267,2268],{},"作为一个整体来看，这些制造、服务和零售业务是一家非常优秀的企业。2016年它们平均动用了240亿美元的净有形资产，尽管持有大量超额现金且几乎没有债务，税后资本回报率仍达到24%。",[14,2270,2271],{},"当然，如果买入价格过高，即使经济效益出色的企业也可能是一笔糟糕的投资。我们为大部分业务的净有形资产支付了可观的溢价，这反映在我们资产负债表上那个庞大的商誉和其他无形资产数字中。不过总体而言，我们在该板块投入的资本获得了不错的回报。如果不出现经济衰退，该集团2017年的收益很可能增长，部分原因是金霸王 (Duracell) 和精密铸件公司 (Precision Castparts)——两者都在2016年完成收购——将首次贡献全年收益。此外，金霸王在2016年发生了大量转型过渡成本，这些成本将不会重现。",[14,2273,2274],{},"这个集团的企业太多了，无法逐一评论。而且，它们现有和潜在的竞争对手也会阅读这份报告。对于我们的少数几项业务，如果外界知道了具体数字，我们可能会处于不利地位。因此，对于那些对评估伯克希尔整体价值不具有重大影响的业务，我们只披露法规要求的内容。不过你们仍然可以在完整年报中找到关于许多业务运营的大量细节。但要记住，真正重要的是整片伯克希尔森林的成长。过度关注任何一棵树都是愚蠢的。",[1117,2276],{},[14,2278,2279],{},"多年来我一直告诉你们，本节列示的收入和支出数据并不符合GAAP准则。我已经解释过，这种偏差主要是因为GAAP关于购买法会计调整的规定——要求在平均约19年的期限内全额摊销某些无形资产。在我们看来，大多数此类摊销”费用”并不是真正的经济成本。我们在本节偏离GAAP的目的，是以查理和我看待和分析这些数据的方式来向你们呈现。",[14,2281,2282],{},"在年报中我们逐项列出了尚待摊销的154亿美元无形资产。（随着我们进行新的收购，还会产生更多待摊销的无形资产。）2016年GAAP收益中的摊销费用为15亿美元，比2015年增加了3.84亿美元。我的判断是，2016年摊销费用中大约20%是”真实的”成本。",[14,2284,2285],{},"摊销费用最终会完全冲销相关资产。当这种情况发生时——通常在15年左右——我们报告的GAAP收益会增加，但伯克希尔业务的基本经济状况并不会出现任何实质性改善。（这是我留给继任者的礼物。）",[14,2287,2288,2289,2292,2293,2295],{},"既然我已经说了一项我认为被夸大的GAAP费用，那让我接着谈一个会计准则造成的不太愉快的失真。这次的主题是GAAP规定的折旧费用——它必须基于历史成本。然而在某些情况下，基于历史成本的折旧费用严重",[819,2290,2291],{},"低估","了真实的经济成本。1970年代和1980年代初通胀肆虐时，关于这一现象的讨论文章数不胜数。随着通胀消退——这要归功于保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 的铁腕行动——折旧费用不足的问题变得不那么引人注目了。但这个问题在铁路行业至今依然",[819,2294,1308],{},"严重，因为许多应折旧项目的当前重置成本远远超过历史成本。不可避免的结果是，整个铁路行业报告的收益远高于其真实的经济收益。",[14,2297,2298,2299,2302],{},"具体到BNSF来说，去年我们GAAP下的折旧费用为21亿美元。但如果我们每年只花这么多钱，铁路设施很快就会恶化，竞争力也会下降。现实是——",[819,2300,2301],{},"仅仅为了维持现状","——我们需要花费的资本支出就远远超过折旧费用。而且，这种巨大的差距将在未来数十年内持续存在。",[14,2304,2305],{},"话虽如此，查理和我都热爱我们的铁路业务，它是我们最好的收购之一。",[1117,2307],{},[14,2309,2310,2311,2314],{},"太多公司的管理层——而且这个数字似乎年年增长——在想方设法报告甚至",[819,2312,2313],{},"大力宣传","高于GAAP收益的”调整后收益”。从业者有许多手段来施展这种障眼法。他们最爱用的两招是在费用中剔除”重组费用”和”股权激励”。",[14,2316,2317,2318,2321,2322,2325],{},"查理和我",[819,2319,2320],{},"希望","管理层在",[819,2323,2324],{},"评论中","描述影响GAAP数字的异常项目——不管是好是坏。毕竟，我们回顾历史数字的目的是为了更好地估计未来。但如果一个管理层经常试图通过强调”调整后每股收益”来掩盖非常真实的成本，我们就会紧张起来。因为不良行为极具传染性：那些公开寻找粉饰报表方法的CEO往往会培养出一种企业文化，让下属也热衷于”帮忙”。这类目标可能导致——比如——保险公司低估损失准备金，而这种做法已经摧毁了不少行业参与者。",[14,2327,2328,2329,2332],{},"每当我们听到分析师赞赏那些总能”达成业绩目标”的管理层时，查理和我都忍不住要皱眉头。(2)事实上，商业前景充满了不确定性，业绩数字不可能总是精准达标。意外不可避免地会发生。当意外出现时，一个眼睛只盯着华尔街的CEO就会忍不住去",[819,2330,2331],{},"编造","数字。",[14,2334,2335],{},"让我们回到那些”不要计入”派管理层最喜欢的两个科目，先说”重组费用”。(3)我认为，从1965年我们接手的第一天起，伯克希尔就一直在重组。当时只有一个北方纺织业务，我们别无选择。如今，伯克希尔每年都有大量的重组在进行。这是因为在我们的数百家企业中，总有需要改变的东西。正如我前面提到的，去年我们在金霸王的转型上投入了大量资金，为它未来几十年的发展做好准备。",[14,2337,2338],{},"然而，我们从未把重组费用单列出来然后告诉你们：“在估算我们的正常盈利能力时，请忽略这些费用。”如果某一年真的有一些极其重大的费用支出，我当然会在信中特别说明。确实，当一项业务发生全面重组时——比如卡夫 (Kraft) 和亨氏 (Heinz) 合并——在那之后的几年里，清楚地向股东解释合并运营所产生的巨额一次性成本是必须的。卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 的CEO正是这样做的，而且得到了包括我在内的公司董事的认可。但是，当管理层只是在进行日常的、必要的业务调整时，却年复一年地告诉股东”不要算这个”，这就是误导了。而太多的分析师和记者竟然吃这一套。",[14,2340,2341],{},"说”股权激励”不是费用，就更加傲慢了。走这条路的CEO实际上是在对股东说：“如果公司给我发一大笔股票期权或限制性股票作为薪酬，别担心它对收益的影响。我会把它’调整’掉的。”",[14,2343,2344,2345,2348],{},"为了更好地剖析这种手法，请跟我一起参观一个虚构的会计实验室，这个实验室的唯一使命就是粉饰伯克希尔的",[819,2346,2347],{},"报告","收益。富有想象力的会计师们已经迫不及待地要展示他们的本领了。",[14,2350,2351,2352,2354],{},"请注意听我告诉这些帮手：在大多数大型公司中，前三四名高管的薪酬总额中，股权激励通常至少占20%。也请注意，伯克希尔旗下有数百位这样的高管，我们也付给他们差不多的薪酬，但全部用现金支付。我还要坦白，由于缺乏想象力，我把支付给伯克希尔高管的",[819,2353,1346],{},"这些款项都计入了费用。",[14,2356,2357],{},"我的会计助手们偷笑着立刻指出，支付给伯克希尔经理人的薪酬中有20%相当于”以现金替代股权激励”，因此不是”真正的”费用。于是——变！——伯克希尔也可以有”调整后”收益了。",[14,2359,2360,2361,2364],{},"回到现实：如果CEO们想在报告收益中剔除股权激励，他们应该被要求向",[819,2362,2363],{},"股东们","阐明以下两个问题之一：为什么用来支付员工薪酬的有价值物品不是成本；或者为什么在计算收益时应该剔除一项工资成本。",[14,2366,2367],{},"1960年代会计乱象横行的时候，有个段子广为流传：一位CEO在公司即将上市时问候选审计师：“2加2等于几？”赢得这份差事的答案，当然是：“您心目中的数字是多少？”",[799,2369,2370],{"id":2370},"金融和金融产品",[14,2372,2373],{},"我们的三项租赁业务分别由科特商业服务 (CORT，家具租赁)、XTRA（半挂拖车租赁）和马蒙集团 (Marmon，主要是油罐车，也包括冷藏货车、联运罐式集装箱和起重机) 运营。三家公司在各自领域都是行业领导者。",[14,2375,2376,2377,2380,2381,2384],{},"这个板块还包括克莱顿之家 (Clayton Homes)。这家公司的大部分营收来自预制房屋销售，但大部分",[819,2378,2379],{},"利润","来自其庞大的抵押贷款组合。去年，克莱顿成为美国最大的房屋建造商，共交付42,075栋住宅，占美国全部新建住宅的5%。（公平地说，其他大型建筑商的",[819,2382,2383],{},"销售额","远高于克莱顿，因为他们销售的是价格高得多的现场建造房屋。）",[14,2386,2387],{},"2015年，克莱顿开始拓展业务，收购了第一家现场建造房屋公司。2016年又进行了两笔类似的收购，未来还会有更多。预计2017年现场建造房屋将占克莱顿销售套数的3%左右，但将贡献约14%的销售额。",[14,2389,2390],{},"即便如此，克莱顿的重心始终是预制房屋。在美国总价低于15万美元的新建住宅中，预制房约占70%。克莱顿制造了其中近一半。这与2003年伯克希尔收购克莱顿时的情况已不可同日而语。当时克莱顿按销售套数排名行业第三，员工仅有6,731人。如今，算上新收购的公司，员工总数已达14,677人。未来这个数字还会继续增长。",[14,2392,2393,2394,2397],{},"克莱顿近年来的盈利从超低利率环境中受益颇多。公司发放给购房者的抵押贷款是长期固定利率的（初始平均期限25年）。但克莱顿自身的借款是定期重新定价的短期债务。当市场利率大幅下降时，克莱顿贷款组合的收益就会大幅增加。通常我们会回避这种短借长贷的做法，因为它可能给金融机构带来严重问题。不过，伯克希尔整体上属于资产敏感型，这意味着短期利率上升将有利于我们的",[819,2395,2396],{},"合并","收益，尽管这会损害克莱顿的利润。",[14,2399,2400,2401,2404],{},"去年，克莱顿不得不对8,304笔预制房抵押贷款实施了止赎，约占贷款组合总量的2.5%。客户群体的特征有助于解释这个违约比例。克莱顿的客户通常是信用评分不高的低收入家庭；许多人的工作在经济衰退时首当其冲；同样，许多人的财务状况会因离婚或亲人去世而遭受重创——这对高收入家庭来说通常影响要小得多。这些客户面临的风险有所缓解，因为他们中几乎所有人都强烈渴望拥有自己的住房，而且每月还款额很合理——平均仅587美元，",[819,2402,2403],{},"包含","保险和房产税。",[14,2406,2407],{},"克莱顿长期以来也有帮助借款人度过困难的项目。最受欢迎的两个是贷款延期和还款豁免。去年约有11,000位借款人获得了贷款延期，3,800位借款人的340万美元应还款项被克莱顿永久免除。批准这些减损措施时，公司不会赚取任何利息或手续费。我们的经验表明，过去两年中通过这些项目获得帮助的借款人中，93%至今仍住在自己的房子里。由于止赎给我们带来巨大损失——去年高达1.5亿美元——我们的援助项目最终对克莱顿和借款人都有好处。",[14,2409,2410],{},"克莱顿和伯克希尔一直是绝佳的合作伙伴。凯文·克莱顿 (Kevin Clayton) 带来了一支一流的管理团队和企业文化。反过来，当预制房行业在大衰退期间崩溃时，伯克希尔提供了无与伦比的后盾。（当其他行业贷款机构纷纷消失时，克莱顿不仅为自家经销商提供信贷，还为销售竞争对手产品的经销商提供贷款。）在伯克希尔，我们收购企业时从不指望协同效应。然而，在收购克莱顿之后，真正重要的协同效应确实浮现了。",[14,2412,2413],{},"马蒙集团的铁路货车租赁业务去年经历了需求大幅下滑，这将导致2017年收益下降。去年12月，车队利用率为91%，低于一年前的97%，其中我们2015年从通用电气 (General Electric) 收购的大型车队下降尤为严重。马蒙的起重机和集装箱租赁业务也有所走弱。",[14,2415,2416],{},"铁路货车需求的大幅波动过去发生过，将来也会继续发生。尽管如此，我们非常看好这项业务，预计未来数年将获得不错的股权回报率。油罐车是马蒙的强项。人们通常把油罐车与原油运输联系在一起；事实上，各种各样的货主都离不开它。",[14,2418,2419],{},"未来我们预计将继续扩展铁路货车业务。与此同时，马蒙正在进行一系列补强收购，其业绩计入制造、服务和零售板块。",[14,2421,2422],{},"以下是金融相关业务的税前收益摘要：",[21,2424,2425,2437],{},[24,2426,2427],{},[27,2428,2429,2431,2433,2435],{},[30,2430,2164],{},[30,2432,747],{},[30,2434,734],{},[30,2436,720],{},[43,2438,2439,2453,2467,2480,2494,2508,2521,2535],{},[27,2440,2441,2444,2447,2450],{},[48,2442,2443],{},"伯卡迪亚（我们持有50%）",[48,2445,2446],{},"$ 91",[48,2448,2449],{},"$ 74",[48,2451,2452],{},"$ 122",[27,2454,2455,2458,2461,2464],{},[48,2456,2457],{},"克莱顿之家",[48,2459,2460],{},"744",[48,2462,2463],{},"706",[48,2465,2466],{},"558",[27,2468,2469,2472,2475,2478],{},[48,2470,2471],{},"科特商业服务",[48,2473,2474],{},"60",[48,2476,2477],{},"55",[48,2479,1897],{},[27,2481,2482,2485,2488,2491],{},[48,2483,2484],{},"马蒙——集装箱和起重机",[48,2486,2487],{},"126",[48,2489,2490],{},"192",[48,2492,2493],{},"238",[27,2495,2496,2499,2502,2505],{},[48,2497,2498],{},"马蒙——铁路货车",[48,2500,2501],{},"654",[48,2503,2504],{},"546",[48,2506,2507],{},"442",[27,2509,2510,2513,2516,2519],{},[48,2511,2512],{},"XTRA",[48,2514,2515],{},"179",[48,2517,2518],{},"172",[48,2520,1852],{},[27,2522,2523,2526,2529,2532],{},[48,2524,2525],{},"净金融收益*",[48,2527,2528],{},"276",[48,2530,2531],{},"341",[48,2533,2534],{},"283",[27,2536,2537,2539,2542,2545],{},[48,2538],{},[48,2540,2541],{},"$ 2,130",[48,2543,2544],{},"$ 2,086",[48,2546,2547],{},"$ 1,839",[2549,2550,2551],"ul",{},[1099,2552,2553],{},"不含资本损益",[799,2555,2556],{"id":2556},"投资业务",[14,2558,2559],{},"下表列出了我们在年末市值最大的15只普通股投资。由于伯克希尔是卡夫亨氏 (Kraft Heinz) 的控股集团成员之一，因此必须按”权益法”核算该投资，未列入下表。伯克希尔持有的325,442,152股卡夫亨氏股票，在我们资产负债表上按GAAP以153亿美元入账，年末市值为284亿美元。我们的成本基础为98亿美元。",[21,2561,2562,2581],{},[24,2563,2564],{},[27,2565,2566,2569,2572,2575,2578],{},[30,2567,2568],{},"持股数*",[30,2570,2571],{},"公司名称",[30,2573,2574],{},"占公司股份比例",[30,2576,2577],{},"截至2016\u002F12\u002F31成本（百万美元）**",[30,2579,2580],{},"截至2016\u002F12\u002F31市值（百万美元）",[43,2582,2583,2599,2616,2632,2649,2666,2682,2699,2716,2732,2749,2766,2783,2800,2817,2833,2848],{},[27,2584,2585,2588,2591,2593,2596],{},[48,2586,2587],{},"151,610,700",[48,2589,2590],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[48,2592,699],{},[48,2594,2595],{},"$ 1,287",[48,2597,2598],{},"$ 11,231",[27,2600,2601,2604,2607,2610,2613],{},[48,2602,2603],{},"61,242,652",[48,2605,2606],{},"苹果 (Apple)",[48,2608,2609],{},"1.1",[48,2611,2612],{},"6,747",[48,2614,2615],{},"7,093",[27,2617,2618,2621,2624,2626,2629],{},[48,2619,2620],{},"6,789,054",[48,2622,2623],{},"特许通讯 (Charter Communications)",[48,2625,195],{},[48,2627,2628],{},"1,210",[48,2630,2631],{},"1,955",[27,2633,2634,2637,2640,2643,2646],{},[48,2635,2636],{},"400,000,000",[48,2638,2639],{},"可口可乐 (Coca-Cola)",[48,2641,2642],{},"9.3",[48,2644,2645],{},"1,299",[48,2647,2648],{},"16,584",[27,2650,2651,2654,2657,2660,2663],{},[48,2652,2653],{},"54,934,718",[48,2655,2656],{},"达美航空 (Delta Airlines)",[48,2658,2659],{},"7.5",[48,2661,2662],{},"2,299",[48,2664,2665],{},"2,702",[27,2667,2668,2671,2674,2677,2679],{},[48,2669,2670],{},"11,390,582",[48,2672,2673],{},"高盛 (Goldman Sachs)",[48,2675,2676],{},"2.9",[48,2678,2501],{},[48,2680,2681],{},"2,727",[27,2683,2684,2687,2690,2693,2696],{},[48,2685,2686],{},"81,232,303",[48,2688,2689],{},"IBM",[48,2691,2692],{},"8.5",[48,2694,2695],{},"13,815",[48,2697,2698],{},"13,484",[27,2700,2701,2704,2707,2710,2713],{},[48,2702,2703],{},"24,669,778",[48,2705,2706],{},"穆迪 (Moody’s)",[48,2708,2709],{},"12.9",[48,2711,2712],{},"248",[48,2714,2715],{},"2,326",[27,2717,2718,2721,2724,2726,2729],{},[48,2719,2720],{},"74,587,892",[48,2722,2723],{},"菲利普斯66 (Phillips 66)",[48,2725,696],{},[48,2727,2728],{},"5,841",[48,2730,2731],{},"6,445",[27,2733,2734,2737,2740,2743,2746],{},[48,2735,2736],{},"22,169,930",[48,2738,2739],{},"赛诺菲 (Sanofi)",[48,2741,2742],{},"1.7",[48,2744,2745],{},"1,692",[48,2747,2748],{},"1,791",[27,2750,2751,2754,2757,2760,2763],{},[48,2752,2753],{},"43,203,775",[48,2755,2756],{},"西南航空 (Southwest Airlines)",[48,2758,2759],{},"7.0",[48,2761,2762],{},"1,757",[48,2764,2765],{},"2,153",[27,2767,2768,2771,2774,2777,2780],{},[48,2769,2770],{},"101,859,335",[48,2772,2773],{},"美国合众银行 (U.S. Bancorp)",[48,2775,2776],{},"6.0",[48,2778,2779],{},"3,239",[48,2781,2782],{},"5,233",[27,2784,2785,2788,2791,2794,2797],{},[48,2786,2787],{},"26,620,184",[48,2789,2790],{},"美联航控股 (United Continental)",[48,2792,2793],{},"8.4",[48,2795,2796],{},"1,477",[48,2798,2799],{},"1,940",[27,2801,2802,2805,2808,2811,2814],{},[48,2803,2804],{},"43,387,980",[48,2806,2807],{},"美国石膏 (USG Corp)",[48,2809,2810],{},"29.7",[48,2812,2813],{},"836",[48,2815,2816],{},"1,253",[27,2818,2819,2822,2825,2827,2830],{},[48,2820,2821],{},"500,000,000",[48,2823,2824],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo)",[48,2826,59],{},[48,2828,2829],{},"12,730",[48,2831,2832],{},"27,555",[27,2834,2835,2837,2840,2842,2845],{},[48,2836],{},[48,2838,2839],{},"其他",[48,2841],{},[48,2843,2844],{},"10,697",[48,2846,2847],{},"17,560",[27,2849,2850,2852,2855,2857,2860],{},[48,2851],{},[48,2853,2854],{},"按市价计入的普通股合计",[48,2856],{},[48,2858,2859],{},"$ 65,828",[48,2861,2862],{},"$ 122,032",[2549,2864,2865],{},[1099,2866,2867],{},"不包括伯克希尔子公司养老基金所持股份。",[14,2869,2870],{},"** 此处为实际购买成本，也是计税基础；GAAP”成本”在少数情况下因准则要求的减记而有所不同。",[14,2872,2873,2874,2877],{},"表中部分股票由托德·库姆斯 (Todd Combs) 或泰德·韦施勒 (Ted Weschler) 负责，他们与我一起管理伯克希尔的投资。两人各自",[819,2875,2876],{},"独立","管理超过100亿美元的资产；我通常通过查阅每月交易报表来了解他们的投资决策。两人管理的210亿美元中包括伯克希尔部分子公司约76亿美元的养老金资产。如前所述，养老金投资不包括在上述伯克希尔持股列表中。",[1117,2879],{},[14,2881,2882,2883,2886],{},"未列入上表——",[819,2884,2885],{},"但很重要","——的是我们持有的50亿美元美国银行 (Bank of America) 优先股。这些优先股每年为我们带来3亿美元的股息，同时附带一份价值可观的认股权证，允许伯克希尔在2021年9月2日之前的任何时间以50亿美元购买7亿股美国银行普通股。到年末，这项特权如果行使将为我们带来105亿美元的利润。如果愿意的话，伯克希尔可以用优先股来支付行权所需的50亿美元。",[14,2888,2889],{},"如果美国银行普通股的年度股息——目前为每股30美分——在2021年前升至44美分以上，我们预计将以优先股无现金转换为普通股。如果普通股股息保持在44美分以下，我们很可能在认股权证到期前立即行权。",[14,2891,2892],{},"我们的许多被投资公司，包括美国银行在内，一直在回购股票，其中一些回购力度相当大。我们非常喜欢这种做法，因为我们认为被回购的股票在大多数情况下都被低估了。（毕竟，低估正是我们持有这些股票的原因。）当一个公司的业务不断壮大，而流通股持续减少时，股东自然受益。",[1117,2894],{},[14,2896,2897],{},"有一点你们需要了解：我们资产负债表上列示的860亿美元”现金及等价物”（在我看来也包括美国国库券）中，95%由伯克希尔在美国的实体持有，因此不涉及任何资金汇回税。而且，即使把剩余的资金汇回美国，也只会触发很少的税款，因为其中大部分是在本身就征收可观企业税的国家赚取的。这些已缴税款在资金汇回时可以抵扣美国税款。",[14,2899,2900],{},"这些解释很重要，因为许多现金充裕的美国企业把很大一部分资金滞留在税率极低的司法管辖区。这些公司寄希望——也许会被证明是对的——将资金带回美国的税率很快会大幅下调。在此期间，它们在使用这些资金方面受到诸多限制。换句话说，离岸现金就是不如国内现金值钱。",[14,2902,2903,2904,2907],{},"伯克希尔在地理位置上的有利因素被部分抵消了，因为我们的大量现金由保险子公司持有。虽然我们有许多途径来投资这些现金，但如果这些现金是由伯克希尔母公司持有的话，我们的选择将更加不受限制。我们",[819,2905,2906],{},"确实","有能力每年从保险子公司向母公司分配大量现金——不过，这里也有一些限制。总体而言，保险子公司持有的现金是一项非常有价值的资产，但对我们来说，这些现金如果由母公司持有会稍微更有价值一些。",[1117,2909],{},[14,2911,2912,2913,2916,2917,2920,2921,2923],{},"有时股东或媒体的言论暗示我们将”永远”持有某些股票。没错，我们确实持有一些在我目力所及的范围内没有打算卖掉的股票（我说的可是20\u002F20标准视力）。但我们从未做出任何",[819,2914,2915],{},"承诺","说伯克希尔将",[819,2918,2919],{},"永久","持有其",[819,2922,1231],{},"有价证券。",[14,2925,2926,2927,2930],{},"对这一点的困惑可能是因为对我们年报第110至111页经济原则第11条的理解不够仔细——该原则自1983年以来一直收录在年报中。那条原则说的是",[819,2928,2929],{},"控股企业","，而不是有价证券。今年，我在第11条末尾加了一句话，以确保我们的股东都明白：我们视任何有价证券为可出售的，无论这种出售目前看来多么不可能。",[1117,2932],{},[14,2934,2935],{},"在结束投资部分之前，我想就股息和税收说几句教育性的话。伯克希尔和大多数企业一样，从一美元股息中获得的净收益要远高于一美元资本利得。这可能会让那些习惯于认为资本利得是通往税收优惠回报之路的股东感到意外。",[14,2937,2938,2939,2942,2943,2946],{},"但看看",[819,2940,2941],{},"企业","的算术吧。公司每实现一美元的资本利得，都要缴纳35美分的联邦所得税（通常还要加上州所得税）。然而，从",[819,2944,2945],{},"国内","公司收到的股息税率始终更低，尽管具体税率因接收者的身份而异。",[14,2948,2949],{},"对于一家非保险公司——伯克希尔母公司就是非保险公司——收到的每一美元股息实际联邦税率约为10.5美分。而且，如果一家非保险公司持有被投资公司超过20%的股份，则每一美元股息的税率仅为7美分。这一税率适用于我们从持股27%的卡夫亨氏收到的大量股息——全部由母公司持有。（对企业股息征收较低税率的理由是，支付股息的被投资公司已经为分配的收益缴纳了自己的企业税。）",[14,2951,2952],{},"伯克希尔的保险子公司缴纳的股息税率略高于非保险公司，但仍远低于35%的资本利得税率。财产意外险公司收到的大多数股息需缴纳约14%的税。不过，如果它们持有一家美国被投资公司超过20%的股份，税率会降至约11%。",[14,2954,2955],{},"以上就是我们今天的税务小课堂。",[799,2957,2959],{"id":2958},"赌注或者说你的钱如何流向华尔街","“赌注”（或者说，你的钱如何流向华尔街）",[14,2961,2962],{},"在本节中，你们会先读到一个我九年前所下赌注的故事，然后是我对投资的一些强烈看法。不过作为铺垫，我想先简单介绍一下长期赌注 (Long Bets) 这家在这场赌局中扮演了重要角色的独特机构。",[14,2964,2965],{},"长期赌注由亚马逊的杰夫·贝佐斯 (Jeff Bezos) 出资创立，是一个管理长期赌约的非营利组织。参与方式是：“赌约发起者”在 Longbets.org 上发布一个命题，该命题将在遥远的未来被证明对或错。然后他们等待一个持反对意见的人站出来接受另一方的赌约。当一个”怀疑者”应战后，双方各自指定一家慈善机构作为己方获胜时的受益人；在长期赌注上存入赌金；并在网站上发表一篇短文为自己的立场辩护。赌约结束时，长期赌注向获胜方的慈善机构支付赌金。",[14,2967,2968],{},"以下是你会在这个很有意思的网站上看到的例子：",[14,2970,2971],{},"2002年，企业家米奇·卡普尔 (Mitch Kapor) 断言，“到2029年，没有任何计算机或’机器智能’能通过图灵测试”——图灵测试是判断计算机能否成功模拟人类的方法。发明家雷·库兹韦尔 (Ray Kurzweil) 持相反观点。双方各押了1万美元。我不知道谁会赢这个赌约，但我敢打赌，没有任何计算机能复制查理。",[14,2973,2974],{},"同年，微软的克雷格·蒙迪 (Craig Mundie) 断言，到2030年无人驾驶飞机将常规载客，而谷歌的埃里克·施密特 (Eric Schmidt) 持反对意见。赌注为每人1,000美元。为了缓解埃里克因为押注金额太大而可能产生的焦虑，我最近主动提出分担他的部分赌注。他迅速把500美元转给了我。（我喜欢他的假设——如果我们输了，到2030年我还活着可以付钱。）",[14,2976,2977],{},"现在来说说我自己的赌约和它的来龙去脉。在伯克希尔2005年的年报中，我提出，从整体来看，由专业人士进行的主动投资管理的长期业绩将不如那些呆坐不动的业余投资者。我解释道，从整体来看，各种”投资顾问”收取的巨额费用将使其客户的表现不如那些简单投资于一只低成本被动指数基金的业余选手。",[14,2979,2980,2981,2984],{},"随后，我公开提出一个50万美元的赌约：没有任何一位投资专家能挑出至少五只对冲基金——这种大受欢迎的高收费投资工具——在一段较长的时期内匹敌一只不做管理、只收取象征性费用的标普500指数基金的表现。我提议赌期十年，并指定一只低成本的先锋 (Vanguard) 标普指数基金作为我的参赛选手。然后我坐下来，满怀期待地等着一长队基金经理——他们可以把自己的基金算作五只之一——站出来捍卫自己的职业。毕竟，这些经理人催促",[819,2982,2983],{},"别人","在他们的能力上押下数十亿美元。他们怎么会害怕拿自己的一点钱出来赌一把呢？",[14,2986,2987],{},"接下来是一片寂静。尽管有成千上万的专业投资经理人靠吹嘘自己的选股本领积累了惊人的财富，却只有一个人——泰德·塞德斯 (Ted Seides)——站出来接受了我的挑战。泰德是门徒合伙人 (Protégé Partners) 的联合管理人，这是一家资产管理公司，从有限合伙人那里募集资金组建了一个基金中的基金——换句话说，是一只投资于多只对冲基金的基金。",[14,2989,2990],{},"在下注之前我并不认识泰德，但我喜欢他，也钦佩他愿意把钱押在自己说过的话上。他对我一直很坦率，而且在提供双方监测赌约所需的所有数据时一丝不苟。",[14,2992,2993],{},"在十年赌约中，泰德为门徒合伙人一方挑选了五只FOF基金，其业绩取平均后与我的先锋标普指数基金进行比较。他挑选的五只FOF基金将资金投向了100多只对冲基金，这意味着整体表现不会因为某一个经理人的好坏而被扭曲。",[14,2995,2996],{},"当然，每只FOF基金都在其投资的对冲基金收取的费用之上再加了一层费用。在这种双重收费安排中，大头费用由底层对冲基金征收；每只FOF基金则为其”选择对冲基金经理”的所谓本事额外收取一笔费用。",[14,2998,2999],{},"以下是赌约前九年的结果——数字清楚地表明，我指定的慈善受益人——奥马哈少女公司 (Girls Inc. of Omaha) 将在明年一月迫不及待地打开来信领取奖金，这毫无悬念。",[21,3001,3002,3026],{},[24,3003,3004],{},[27,3005,3006,3008,3011,3014,3017,3020,3023],{},[30,3007,32],{},[30,3009,3010],{},"FOF基金A",[30,3012,3013],{},"FOF基金B",[30,3015,3016],{},"FOF基金C",[30,3018,3019],{},"FOF基金D",[30,3021,3022],{},"FOF基金E",[30,3024,3025],{},"标普指数基金",[43,3027,3028,3050,3072,3094,3114,3136,3158,3180,3201,3221],{},[27,3029,3030,3032,3035,3038,3041,3044,3047],{},[48,3031,639],{},[48,3033,3034],{},"-16.5%",[48,3036,3037],{},"-22.3%",[48,3039,3040],{},"-21.3%",[48,3042,3043],{},"-29.3%",[48,3045,3046],{},"-30.1%",[48,3048,3049],{},"-37.0%",[27,3051,3052,3054,3057,3060,3063,3066,3069],{},[48,3053,653],{},[48,3055,3056],{},"11.3%",[48,3058,3059],{},"14.5%",[48,3061,3062],{},"21.4%",[48,3064,3065],{},"16.5%",[48,3067,3068],{},"16.8%",[48,3070,3071],{},"26.6%",[27,3073,3074,3076,3079,3082,3085,3088,3091],{},[48,3075,667],{},[48,3077,3078],{},"5.9%",[48,3080,3081],{},"6.8%",[48,3083,3084],{},"13.3%",[48,3086,3087],{},"4.9%",[48,3089,3090],{},"11.9%",[48,3092,3093],{},"15.1%",[27,3095,3096,3098,3101,3104,3106,3108,3111],{},[48,3097,680],{},[48,3099,3100],{},"-6.3%",[48,3102,3103],{},"-1.3%",[48,3105,3078],{},[48,3107,3100],{},[48,3109,3110],{},"-2.8%",[48,3112,3113],{},"2.1%",[27,3115,3116,3118,3121,3124,3127,3130,3133],{},[48,3117,693],{},[48,3119,3120],{},"3.4%",[48,3122,3123],{},"9.6%",[48,3125,3126],{},"5.7%",[48,3128,3129],{},"6.2%",[48,3131,3132],{},"9.1%",[48,3134,3135],{},"16.0%",[27,3137,3138,3140,3143,3146,3149,3152,3155],{},[48,3139,707],{},[48,3141,3142],{},"10.5%",[48,3144,3145],{},"15.2%",[48,3147,3148],{},"8.8%",[48,3150,3151],{},"14.2%",[48,3153,3154],{},"14.4%",[48,3156,3157],{},"32.3%",[27,3159,3160,3162,3165,3168,3171,3174,3177],{},[48,3161,720],{},[48,3163,3164],{},"4.7%",[48,3166,3167],{},"4.0%",[48,3169,3170],{},"18.9%",[48,3172,3173],{},"0.7%",[48,3175,3176],{},"-2.1%",[48,3178,3179],{},"13.6%",[27,3181,3182,3184,3187,3190,3193,3196,3199],{},[48,3183,734],{},[48,3185,3186],{},"1.6%",[48,3188,3189],{},"2.5%",[48,3191,3192],{},"5.4%",[48,3194,3195],{},"1.4%",[48,3197,3198],{},"-5.0%",[48,3200,3195],{},[27,3202,3203,3205,3208,3211,3214,3216,3219],{},[48,3204,747],{},[48,3206,3207],{},"-2.9%",[48,3209,3210],{},"1.7%",[48,3212,3213],{},"-1.4%",[48,3215,3189],{},[48,3217,3218],{},"4.4%",[48,3220,3090],{},[27,3222,3223,3226,3229,3232,3235,3238,3241],{},[48,3224,3225],{},"累计收益",[48,3227,3228],{},"8.7%",[48,3230,3231],{},"28.3%",[48,3233,3234],{},"62.8%",[48,3236,3237],{},"2.9%",[48,3239,3240],{},"7.5%",[48,3242,3243],{},"85.4%",[14,3245,3246],{},"（根据我与门徒合伙人达成的协议，这些FOF基金的名称从未公开披露。不过，我看过它们的年度审计报告。）",[14,3248,3249],{},"截至目前，指数基金的年均复合增长率为7.1%，这个回报率很容易被证明是股市长期的典型水平。这是一个重要的事实：如果在赌约期间股市表现异常疲软，对冲基金的相对表现可能会更好，因为许多对冲基金持有大量”空头”头寸。反过来，如果九年间股市回报异常强劲，指数基金则会享有顺风。",[14,3251,3252],{},"实际情况是，我们处在一个我所说的”中性”环境中。在这种环境下，五只FOF基金截至2016年的平均年化回报率仅为2.2%。这意味着投入这些基金的100万美元只增值了22万美元。而同期指数基金则增值了85.4万美元。",[14,3254,3255],{},"请记住，那100多位底层对冲基金的经理人中，每一位都有巨大的经济动力去竭尽全力。此外，泰德挑选的五位FOF基金经理人同样有动力去尽可能选出最好的对冲基金经理，因为他们有权根据底层基金的业绩收取绩效提成。",[14,3257,3258,3259,3262,3263,3267],{},"我相信，几乎所有情况下两级基金的经理人都是诚实和聪明的人。但他们为投资者交出的成绩单惨不忍睹——",[819,3260,3261],{},"真的","惨不忍睹。而且，遗憾的是，所有基金和FOF基金收取的巨额固定管理费——这些费用与业绩表现完全无关——使得它们的经理人在过去九年里赚得盆满钵满。用戈登·盖柯 (Gordon Gekko) ",[3264,3265,3266],"span",{},"电影《华尔街》主角"," 的话说：“收费永不眠。”",[14,3269,3270],{},"在我们的赌约中，底层对冲基金经理人从有限合伙人那里收取的费用，可能平均略低于对冲基金通行的”二八”标准——即每年2%的固定管理费（即使巨亏也照收不误），外加20%的利润分成且不设追回条款（如果好年份后面跟着坏年份）。在这种一边倒的安排下，对冲基金操盘手只需有能力不断积累管理资产规模就行了，于是许多基金经理人变得极其富有——即使他们的投资表现一塌糊涂。",[14,3272,3273,3274,3277],{},"而且，费用还没完呢。别忘了还要”喂养”那些FOF基金经理人。这些经理人通常额外收取资产规模1%左右的固定管理费。然后，尽管五只FOF基金的整体业绩糟糕透顶，但其中一些在某几年表现尚可，于是照样收了”绩效”提成。因此，我估计在过去九年里，五只FOF基金获得的所有收益中约有60%——天哪！——流入了两级基金经理的腰包。这就是他们的不义之财，因为他们数百位有限合伙人完全可以自己轻松、几乎",[819,3275,3276],{},"零成本","地取得远超这些基金的业绩。",[14,3279,3280],{},"在我看来，这场赌约所暴露的对冲基金投资者令人失望的结果，几乎肯定会在未来重演。赌约开始时，我在长期赌注网站上发布了一份声明阐述了我的理由（至今仍挂在上面）。以下是我当时的论点：",[3282,3283,3284],"blockquote",{},[14,3285,3286],{},"从2008年1月1日开始到2017年12月31日结束的十年期间，标普500指数的表现将超过一组对冲基金的基金组合——以扣除费用、成本和开支后的净值来衡量。",[3282,3288,3289],{},[14,3290,3291],{},"许多非常聪明的人试图在证券市场上取得超越平均水平的业绩。我们称他们为主动投资者。",[3282,3293,3294],{},[14,3295,3296],{},"与他们相对的是被动投资者，按定义他们的业绩大致等于市场平均水平。总体来看，他们的持仓大致等同于一只指数基金。因此，市场中的另一方——主动投资者——整体业绩也必须大致等于平均水平。然而，主动投资者将承担远高于被动投资者的成本。所以，总体而言，扣除这些成本后，他们的整体业绩将不如被动投资者。",[3282,3298,3299],{},[14,3300,3301],{},"当高昂的年度管理费、高额的绩效提成和频繁交易的成本全部加到主动投资者的等式中时，成本就会飙升。FOF基金更是加剧了成本问题，因为它们在底层对冲基金收取的高额费用之上又叠加了自己的费用。",[3282,3303,3304],{},[14,3305,3306],{},"有许多聪明的人在运营对冲基金。但在很大程度上，他们的努力互相抵消了，而且他们的高智商无法克服他们强加给投资者的成本。平均而言，随着时间推移，投资低成本指数基金的表现将优于一组FOF基金。",[14,3308,3309,3310,3313],{},"这就是我的论点——现在让我把它变成一个简单的等式。如果A组（主动投资者）和B组（无为投资者）构成了整个投资市场，而B组在扣除成本前注定只能取得平均回报，那么A组也必须如此。成本更低的那组将获胜。（我心中的学者逼迫我提一句，有一个非常小的技术细节——不值得详述——会",[819,3311,3312],{},"稍微","修正这个公式。）而如果A组的成本过高，其亏空将是巨大的。",[14,3315,3316,3317,3320],{},"当然，有一些有本事的人很可能在较长时期内跑赢标普指数。然而，在我这一生中，我",[819,3318,3319],{},"很早","就识别出来的、我预期能完成这一壮举的专业人士，也就十位左右。",[14,3322,3323],{},"毫无疑问，还有成百上千——也许上千——我从未谋面的人，其能力可以与我识别出的那些人相媲美。毕竟，跑赢指数并非不可能。问题只是，试图跑赢的大多数经理人最终都会失败。而且，向你募资的那个人不是那个能做得很好的例外的概率也非常高。比尔·鲁安 (Bill Ruane)——一个真正了不起的人，60年前我就认为他几乎肯定能够带来长期出色的投资回报——说得好：“在投资管理中，先是创新者，然后是模仿者，最后是蜂拥而至的庸才。”",[14,3325,3326],{},"寻找那种稀有的、物有所值的高收费经理人之所以更加困难，还因为一些专业投资者——就像一些业余投资者一样——会在短期内走运。如果1,000位经理人在年初做市场预测，至少有一位的预测很可能连续九年都是正确的。当然，1,000只猴子中也同样可能出现一只看似无所不知的”先知”。但两者之间有一个区别：那只幸运的猴子不会发现有人排队来找它投资。",[14,3328,3329,3330,3332],{},"最后，有三个相互关联的现实导致投资成功孕育出失败。第一，出色的业绩记录很快就会吸引滚滚而来的资金。第二，巨额资金总是会成为投资业绩的锚：管几百万的时候容易，管几十亿就难了（唉！）。第三，尽管如此，大多数经理人仍然会追逐新资金，因为他们的",[819,3331,1175],{},"利益方程式是——管理的资金越多，收取的费用就越多。",[14,3334,3335,3336,3339],{},"这三点对我来说并不新鲜：1966年1月，当时我管理着4,400",[819,3337,3338],{},"万","美元，我给我的有限合伙人写道：“我认为更大的规模更可能损害未来的业绩，而不是帮助业绩。对于我个人的收益来说这也许不适用，但对于你们的收益来说很可能如此。因此……我打算不再接纳新的合伙人加入BPL。我已经通知苏茜 (Susie)，如果我们再有更多孩子，得由她去给他们找其他合伙基金了。”",[14,3341,3342],{},"底线是：当数万亿美元由收取高额费用的华尔街人士管理时，通常赚到丰厚利润的是管理人，而不是客户。无论大投资者还是小投资者，都应该坚持投资低成本指数基金。",[1117,3344],{},[14,3346,3347,3348,3351],{},"如果要树一座雕像来纪念为美国投资者做出最大贡献的人，那么毫无争议的人选应该是杰克·博格尔 (Jack Bogle)。几十年来，杰克一直在敦促投资者买入超低成本的指数基金。在他的毕生奋斗中，他只积累了一小部分财富，而大量的财富流向了那些向投资者许诺丰厚回报却什么都没带来——或者像我们这个赌约表明的，带来的回报",[819,3349,3350],{},"低于","零——的基金经理们。",[14,3353,3354],{},"杰克早年常常被投资管理行业嘲笑。然而今天，他欣慰地知道自己帮助了数百万投资者实现了远高于他们本来能获得的储蓄回报。他是他们的英雄，也是我的英雄。",[1117,3356],{},[14,3358,3359],{},"多年来，人们经常向我请教投资建议，在回答的过程中我对人类行为学到了很多。我通常给出的建议是投资一只低成本的标普500指数基金。值得称赞的是，我那些收入不高的朋友通常都采纳了我的建议。",[14,3361,3362,3363,3366],{},"然而我相信，当我向那些超级富豪、机构投资者或养老基金给出同样建议时，",[819,3364,3365],{},"没有一个","采纳。相反，这些投资者会礼貌地感谢我的想法，然后转身去聆听那些收费高昂的基金经理的动人旋律，又或者——就许多机构而言——去寻找另一个品种的超级助手，叫做”投资顾问”。",[14,3368,3369],{},"然而，这些专业人士面临着一个问题。你能想象一个投资顾问年复一年地告诉客户”继续往指数基金里加钱”吗？那简直是职业自杀。但如果这些超级助手每年建议做一些小幅度的策略调整，大笔费用就滚滚而来了。这些建议往往用晦涩难懂的行话来包装，解释为什么时髦的投资”风格”或当前的经济趋势让这种调整恰逢其时。",[14,3371,3372],{},"有钱人习惯于觉得他们命中注定要享受最好的食物、教育、娱乐、住房、整形手术、体育赛事门票——你说什么都行。他们觉得自己的钱应该买到比普通大众更优质的东西。",[14,3374,3375,3376,3379],{},"确实，在生活的许多方面，财富能换来顶级的产品或服务。正因如此，金融”精英”——富人、养老基金、大学捐赠基金之类——很难甘心去选择一种普通人只需投入几千美元也能买到的金融产品或服务。即使从期望值的角度看，这种产品",[819,3377,3378],{},"明显","是最佳选择，富人的这种不情愿依然根深蒂固。我的估算（诚然非常粗略）是，精英阶层对卓越投资建议的追求，在过去十年里总共让他们白白浪费了超过1,000亿美元。算一算：几万亿美元的资产即使只收1%的管理费，加起来也是天文数字。当然，并非十年前投资对冲基金的每一个投资者都跑输了标普指数。但我相信我对总亏空的估算是保守的。",[14,3381,3382],{},"大部分的财务损失落在了公务员养老基金头上。这些基金中许多都严重资金不足，部分原因是它们遭受了双重打击：投资表现糟糕，加上巨额管理费用。由此造成的资产缺口将由当地纳税人在未来几十年里来填补。",[14,3384,3385],{},"人类的行为不会改变。富人、养老基金、捐赠基金等仍会觉得他们应该在投资建议方面享受一些”额外”待遇。那些巧妙迎合这种期望心理的投资顾问将变得非常富有。今年的灵丹妙药可能是对冲基金，明年又是别的什么。这一连串承诺最可能的结果，在一句谚语中得到了印证：“当一个有钱的人遇到一个有经验的人时，有经验的人最终得到了钱，而有钱的人离开时得到了经验。”",[14,3387,3388],{},"很久以前，我的姐夫霍默·罗杰斯 (Homer Rogers) 是奥马哈牲畜交易所的一名佣金经纪人。我问他是怎么说服农场主或牧场主雇他来代理出售牲畜给四大罐头食品公司（斯威夫特 Swift、卡达希 Cudahy、威尔逊 Wilson 和阿莫尔 Armour）的买手的。毕竟，猪就是猪，买手们都是行家，清楚每头牲畜精确到分的价值。那么我问霍默，一个销售代理怎么可能比另一个做得更好呢？",[14,3390,3391,3392,3395,3396,3399],{},"霍默怜悯地看了我一眼说：“沃伦，关键不是你怎么",[819,3393,3394],{},"卖","，而是你怎么",[819,3397,3398],{},"说","。”在牲畜交易所管用的那一套，在华尔街照样管用。",[1117,3401],{},[14,3403,3404,3405,3408],{},"最后，让我向华尔街的朋友们伸出橄榄枝——他们中有许多是我的好朋友。伯克希尔",[819,3406,3407],{},"乐于","向为我们带来收购机会的投资银行家支付费用——甚至高得离谱的费用。此外，我们已经为两位内部投资经理人的超额业绩支付了大笔奖金——我们希望将来能付给他们更多。",[14,3410,3411],{},"引用《圣经》的话（以弗所书3:18），我深知当”费用”这个简单的四个字母词在华尔街被提及时，它所释放出的能量的高度、深度、长度和广度。而当这种能量为伯克希尔创造价值时，我会欣然开出一张大支票。",[799,3413,3414],{"id":3414},"年度股东大会",[14,3416,3417],{},"去年，我们与雅虎 (Yahoo) 合作，首次通过网络直播了年度股东大会。感谢安迪·瑟沃 (Andy Serwer) 和他的雅虎团队，这次制作在各方面都很成功——实时观看的独立访问量达到110万，回放次数超过1,150万（当然，其中许多回放是由只对直播中某些片段感兴趣的观众点击的）。",[14,3419,3420],{},"伯克希尔收到的对网络直播的感谢信主要来自三类人：觉得出行不便的老年人；觉得前往奥马哈费用太高的节俭人士；以及因宗教原因无法参加周六会议的人。",[14,3422,3423],{},"网络直播使去年出席会议的人数降至约37,000人（我们无法精确统计），下降了约10%。尽管如此，伯克希尔的子公司和奥马哈的酒店、餐馆仍然实现了巨大的销售额。内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart) 的销售额比2015年的记录又高了3%，奥马哈门店一周的销售额达到4,550万美元。",[14,3425,3426],{},"我们在世纪互联中心 (CenturyLink) 的伯克希尔展商区周五中午到下午5点开放，吸引了12,000名前来淘便宜的股东。今年5月5日，周五的购物时间将照旧。记得带钱来。",[14,3428,3429,3430],{},"年度股东大会在5月6日举行，雅虎将再次进行网络直播，地址是 ",[3431,3432,3436],"a",{"href":3433,"rel":3434},"https:\u002F\u002Ffinance.yahoo.com\u002Fbrklivestream%E3%80%82%E7%9B%B4%E6%92%AD%E5%B0%86%E4%BA%8E%E4%B8%AD%E9%83%A8%E5%A4%8F%E4%BB%A4%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%889%E7%82%B9%E5%BC%80%E5%A7%8B%E3%80%82%E9%9B%85%E8%99%8E%E5%B0%86%E5%9C%A8%E4%BC%9A%E8%AE%AE%E5%89%8D%E5%92%8C%E5%8D%88%E4%BC%91%E6%9C%9F%E9%97%B4%E9%87%87%E8%AE%BF%E8%91%A3%E4%BA%8B%E3%80%81%E7%BB%8F%E7%90%86%E4%BA%BA%E3%80%81%E8%82%A1%E4%B8%9C%E5%92%8C%E7%9F%A5%E5%90%8D%E4%BA%BA%E5%A3%AB%E3%80%82%E9%87%87%E8%AE%BF%E5%92%8C%E4%BC%9A%E8%AE%AE%E9%83%BD%E5%B0%86%E5%90%8C%E5%A3%B0%E4%BC%A0%E8%AF%91%E4%B8%BA%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%87%E3%80%82",[3435],"nofollow","https:\u002F\u002Ffinance.yahoo.com\u002Fbrklivestream。直播将于中部夏令时间上午9点开始。雅虎将在会议前和午休期间采访董事、经理人、股东和知名人士。采访和会议都将同声传译为中文。",[14,3438,3439],{},"亲自出席会议的朋友请注意，世纪互联中心将在周六上午7:00开门，方便大家在股东电影播放前购物。电影将在8:30开始。问答环节从9:30开始，持续到下午3:30，中午有一小时午休。最后，在下午3:45我们将开始正式的股东大会，大约持续一个小时左右。今年会比平时稍长，因为有三项代理议案要由其提案人陈述，他们将有合理的时间来阐述理由。",[14,3441,3442],{},"周六上午，我们将举行第六届国际报纸投递挑战赛。目标还是一栋克莱顿之家的门廊，与投掷线精确相距35英尺。我年轻时曾短暂体验过正当劳动——送报纸——大约投递了50万份。所以我觉得自己在这个游戏上挺厉害的。来挑战我吧！让我出丑吧！挫挫我的锐气！报纸大约36到42页，你必须自己折叠（不许用橡皮筋）。比赛大约7:45开始，我将迎战由我的助手黛布·博萨内克 (Deb Bosanek) 在几分钟前挑选出的大约十名对手。",[14,3444,3445],{},"你们的购物场所是毗邻会场的一个194,300平方英尺的展厅，数十家子公司的产品将在那里出售。向那些亲自站台的伯克希尔经理人们问好吧。一定要去看看精彩的BNSF铁路微缩景观，它向我们所有的公司致敬。你们的孩子（还有你们自己！）一定会为之着迷。",[14,3447,3448],{},"我们的跑鞋公司布鲁克斯 (Brooks) 将在会议期间再次推出一款特别纪念跑鞋。买一双穿上，周日上午8点参加我们第四届”伯克希尔5公里”跑步活动吧，起点设在世纪互联中心。参与的全部详细信息将包含在随入场凭证一并寄给你们的《参会者指南》中。参赛者会发现自己与伯克希尔的许多经理人、董事和同事一起跑步。（不过查理和我要睡个懒觉；我们在周六会议期间吃的软糖和花生脆实在太多了，需要恢复一下。）5公里跑的参与人数年年增长。帮我们再创新记录吧。",[14,3450,3451],{},"购物区的GEICO展位将配备来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问。去年会议上我们创下了保单销售新记录，比2015年增长21%。我预计今年还会再创新高。",[14,3453,3454],{},"所以过来看看报价吧。多数情况下，GEICO能给你股东折扣（通常8%）。在我们经营的51个司法管辖区中，有44个允许提供这种特别优惠。（补充一点：如果你已经享受了其他折扣——比如某些群体可享受的折扣——不能叠加。）带上你现有保险的详细信息来比比价。我们能为你们中的许多人省下真金白银。把省下来的钱花在我们其他产品上吧。",[14,3456,3457,3458,3461],{},"记得去书虫书吧 (Bookworm) 看看。这家总部在奥马哈的书商将携带大约35本书和DVD，其中包括几个新书。去年我读过的最好的一本书是耐克的菲尔·奈特 (Phil Knight) 写的《鞋狗》(",[819,3459,3460],{},"Shoe Dog",")。菲尔是一个非常睿智、聪明且极具竞争力的人，同时也是一个天生的讲故事高手。书虫书吧会有成堆的《鞋狗》以及杰克·博格尔的几本经典投资著作。",[14,3463,3464,3465,3468],{},"书虫书吧还将再次出售我们的伯克希尔50年精彩历程（和败笔）回顾。未能出席会议的朋友可以在eBay上找到这本书。只需搜索：",[819,3466,3467],{},"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Celebrating 50 years of a Profitable Partnership","（第2版）。",[14,3470,3471],{},"随本报告附上的委托书材料中有一份附件，说明如何获取出席会议及其他活动所需的入场凭证。请记住，航空公司有时会在伯克希尔周末前涨价——不过我必须承认，自从伯克希尔大量投资了美国四大航空公司之后，我对这种做法已经有了一定的容忍度，甚至隐约有些热情。尽管如此，如果你从很远的地方来，不妨比较一下飞到堪萨斯城和飞到奥马哈的费用。两个城市之间车程约两个半小时，飞堪萨斯城可能为你省下一大笔钱。一对夫妇的节省可能达到1,000美元甚至更多。把省下来的钱花在我们的产品上！",[14,3473,3474],{},"在位于道奇街和太平洋街之间72街、占地77英亩的内布拉斯加家具店，我们将再次举行”伯克希尔周末”特价促销。要享受NFM的伯克希尔折扣，你必须在5月2日（周二）至5月8日（周一）之间购买，并出示入场凭证。这期间的特价甚至涵盖了几家平时对折扣有铁律的著名品牌——但本着股东周末的精神，它们为你们破了例。我们非常感谢它们的配合。“伯克希尔周末”期间，NFM的营业时间为：周一至周五上午10点至晚上9点，周六上午10点至晚上9:30，周日上午10点至晚上8点。周六下午5:30至晚上8点，NFM将举办一场野餐活动，诚邀所有股东参加。",[14,3476,3477],{},[819,3478,3479],{},"今年我们给堪萨斯城和达拉斯的股东们带来了好消息——如果你们无法亲自出席会议或更喜欢看网络直播。从5月2日至5月8日，股东只需向当地的NFM门店出示入场凭证或证明伯克希尔股东身份的其他文件（如券商对账单），即可享受与奥马哈门店相同的折扣。",[14,3481,3482],{},"在波仙珠宝店 (Borsheims)，我们将再次举行两场股东专属活动。第一场是5月5日（周五）下午6点到9点的鸡尾酒会。第二场盛大售卖活动将在5月7日（周日）上午9点到下午4点举行。周六营业至下午6点。记住，买得越多，省得越多（至少我女儿每次逛商店时是这么告诉我的）。",[14,3484,3485],{},"伯克希尔周末期间波仙珠宝将迎来大量客流。因此为了你们的方便，股东优惠价将从5月1日（周一）一直持续到5月13日（周六）。在此期间，请出示入场凭证或显示你们持有伯克希尔股票的券商对账单以确认股东身份。",[14,3487,3488],{},"周日，在波仙珠宝外面的广场上，来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师和励志演讲家诺曼·贝克 (Norman Beck) 将为大家表演令人惊叹的魔术。在楼上，世界顶级桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼 (Bob Hamman) 和莎伦·奥斯伯格 (Sharon Osberg) 将在周日下午与股东们切磋牌艺。如果他们提议在牌局上赌一把，赶紧换个话题。我也会在某个时候加入牌局，希望阿吉特、查理和比尔·盖茨 (Bill Gates) 也能来。",[14,3490,3491],{},"我的朋友邢延华 (Ariel Hsing) 周日也会来到广场，在乒乓球台前接受挑战者。我认识她时她才9岁，可即便那时我也一分都赢不了她。邢延华在2012年代表美国参加了奥运会。如今她是普林斯顿大学的大四学生（去年夏天在摩根大通实习过）。如果你不怕丢面子，下午1点来跟她切磋一下球技吧。去年比尔·盖茨跟她打得不错，所以他今年可能准备再次挑战。（我的建议：押邢延华赢。）",[14,3493,3494,3495,3498],{},"5月7日周日，格拉特牛排馆 (Gorat’s) 将专门为伯克希尔股东开放，从下午1点服务到晚上10点。预订请在4月3日（",[819,3496,3497],{},"切勿提前","）拨打 402-551-3733。请点一份T骨牛排配土豆饼，展示你是一位资深老饕。",[14,3500,3501,3502,3506,3507,3511,3512,3516],{},"我们将继续由三位财经记者主持会议期间的问答环节——他们会向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交的问题。三位记者及其邮箱分别是：杰出的商业记者卡罗尔·卢米斯 (Carol Loomis)，",[3431,3503,3505],{"href":3504},"mailto:loomisbrk@gmail.com","loomisbrk@gmail.com","；CNBC的贝基·奎克 (Becky Quick)，",[3431,3508,3510],{"href":3509},"mailto:BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","BerkshireQuestions@cnbc.com","；以及《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金 (Andrew Ross Sorkin)，",[3431,3513,3515],{"href":3514},"mailto:arsorkin@nytimes.com","arsorkin@nytimes.com","。",[14,3518,3519],{},"每位记者将从收到的问题中挑选出他们认为对股东最有趣、最重要的六个。几位记者告诉我，如果你的问题简洁明了、不要在最后时刻才发送、与伯克希尔相关、并且一封邮件不超过两个问题，那么被选中的机会最大。（如果你希望在问题被提出时公布你的名字，请在邮件中说明。）",[14,3521,3522,3523,3526],{},"另外还有三位跟踪研究伯克希尔的分析师会提出一组问题。今年的保险业专家是巴克莱 (Barclays) 的杰·盖尔布 (Jay Gelb)。关于我们非保险业务的问题将由鲁安·坎尼夫·戈德法布 (Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb) 的乔纳森·布兰特 (Jonathan Brandt) 和晨星 (Morningstar) 的格雷格·沃伦 (Gregg Warren) 提出。由于我们举办的是",[819,3524,3525],{},"股东","大会，我们希望分析师和记者提出的问题能有助于增进各位股东对自己投资的了解和认识。",[14,3528,3529],{},"查理和我事先不会得到任何关于提问内容的暗示。有些问题肯定会很尖锐，我们就喜欢这样。不允许一个问题包含多个子问题——我们想让尽可能多的提问者有机会向我们发难。我们的目标是让你们离开会议时比来的时候更了解伯克希尔，同时在奥马哈度过一段愉快的时光。",[14,3531,3532],{},"总共我们预计至少会有54个问题——每位分析师和记者各6个，听众18个。听众的提问者将通过11次抽签选出，抽签在年度会议当天上午8:15进行。设置在主会场和主要分会场的11个麦克风，每个麦克风各进行一次抽签。",[14,3534,3535],{},"既然说到了股东获取信息这个话题，让我提醒大家，查理和我坚信所有股东应当同时获取伯克希尔发布的新信息，而且如果可能的话，还应该有足够的时间在任何交易之前消化和分析这些信息。正因如此，我们尽量在周五晚间或周六早间发布财务数据，年度会议也总是定在周六（这一天还能缓解交通和停车问题）。",[14,3537,3538],{},"我们不采用与大型机构投资者或分析师一对一私下交流的常见做法——我们像对待所有其他股东一样对待他们。对我们来说，没有人比那些收入有限、把积蓄的很大一部分信托给我们管理的中小股东更重要。在我每天经营这家公司的时候——在我写这封信的时候——脑海中浮现的就是这些股东。",[1117,3540],{},[14,3542,3543],{},"出于充分的理由，我经常赞扬我们运营经理人们的成就。他们是真正的全明星，经营各自的业务就好像那是家族唯一的资产一样。我也相信，在大型上市公司中，再也找不到比我们的经理人更以股东利益为导向的了。我们大多数经理人并不需要为钱而工作。对他们来说，打出商业”全垒打”所带来的愉悦跟收到薪水支票一样重要。",[14,3545,3546],{},"同样重要的还有在公司总部和我一起工作的团队。这个团队高效地处理大量SEC和其他监管要求，提交一份长达30,450页的联邦所得税申报表，监督3,580份州税申报表的提交，回应无数的股东和媒体问询，编制年度报告，筹备全美规模最大的年度股东大会，协调董事会的活动，对这封信进行事实核查——这份清单还可以继续列下去。",[14,3548,3549],{},"他们愉快地、以令人难以置信的效率完成所有这些事务，让我的生活轻松而愉快。他们的工作范围还超出了严格意义上与伯克希尔有关的事务：比如，去年他们接待了40所大学（从200所申请者中挑选出来的），安排学生到奥马哈与我进行一整天的问答活动。他们还处理我收到的各种请求，安排我的行程，甚至帮我买午餐——汉堡和薯条（当然要裹满亨氏番茄酱）。此外，他们还热心地协助我们才华横溢的年会总指挥凯丽·索瓦 (Carrie Sova)，为股东们奉上一个有趣又愉快的周末。他们为能在伯克希尔工作而自豪，我也为他们感到自豪。",[14,3551,3552],{},"我是一个幸运的人，能被如此出色的员工、一支才华横溢的运营经理团队，以及一个由睿智且经验丰富的董事所组成的董事会所环绕，实在是莫大的幸运。5月6日，来资本家的摇篮——奥马哈，与伯克希尔大家族见面吧。我们所有人都期待着与你们相见。",[14,3554,3555],{},"2017年2月25日",[14,3557,3558],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特 (Warren E. Buffett)",[14,3560,3561],{},"董事会主席",[14,3563,3564],{},"(1): 原文中 “a practice that – despite the Biblical endorsement – is far from blessed when you are buying businesses” 引用了《圣经》中”施比受更有福”的教导，巴菲特幽默地指出——在收购企业时给出的比得到的多，可一点都不是什么”福气”。",[14,3566,3567],{},"(2): “make the numbers” 指管理层每季度精准达成华尔街预期的盈利目标——巴菲特认为商业充满不确定性，总能”达标”反而令人生疑。",[14,3569,3570],{},"(3): “don’t-count-this” managers 指那些惯于告诉投资者”这项费用请不要算在内”的管理层——巴菲特对此嗤之以鼻。",{"title":3572,"searchDepth":3573,"depth":3573,"links":3574},"",2,[3575,3577,3578,3579,3580,3581,3582,3583,3584,3585],{"id":801,"depth":3576,"text":802},3,{"id":846,"depth":3576,"text":846},{"id":1186,"depth":3576,"text":1186},{"id":1235,"depth":3576,"text":1235},{"id":1602,"depth":3576,"text":1602},{"id":1991,"depth":3576,"text":1992},{"id":2370,"depth":3576,"text":2370},{"id":2556,"depth":3576,"text":2556},{"id":2958,"depth":3576,"text":2959},{"id":3414,"depth":3576,"text":3414},"致股东信",null,"2016年巴菲特致股东信，讨论收购精密机件公司、业绩表现不佳原因及保险业务","md",{},true,89,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002Fgu-dong-xin\u002F2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":3588},"2016 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":3777,"slug":3778,"category":3609,"order":3775},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":3780,"slug":3781,"category":3613,"order":3775},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3783,"slug":3784,"category":3586,"order":3785},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":3787,"slug":3788,"category":3609,"order":3785},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":3790,"slug":3791,"category":3613,"order":3785},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3793,"slug":3794,"category":3604,"order":3795},"1965年11月 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":3847,"slug":3848,"category":3609,"order":3845},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":3850,"slug":3851,"category":3613,"order":3845},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3853,"slug":3854,"category":3604,"order":3855},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":3857,"slug":3858,"category":3609,"order":3855},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":3860,"slug":3861,"category":3613,"order":3855},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3863,"slug":3864,"category":3586,"order":3865},"1967 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":3887,"slug":3888,"category":3609,"order":3885},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":3890,"slug":3891,"category":3613,"order":3885},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3893,"slug":3894,"category":3604,"order":3895},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":3897,"slug":3898,"category":3609,"order":3895},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":3900,"slug":3901,"category":3613,"order":3895},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":3903,"slug":3904,"category":3604,"order":3905},"1968 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":3951,"slug":3952,"category":3609,"order":3949},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":3954,"slug":3955,"category":3604,"order":3956},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":3958,"slug":3959,"category":3609,"order":3956},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":3961,"slug":3962,"category":3604,"order":3963},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":3965,"slug":3966,"category":3609,"order":3963},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":3968,"slug":3969,"category":3604,"order":3970},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":3972,"slug":3973,"category":3609,"order":3970},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3975,"slug":3976,"category":3586,"order":3977},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":3979,"slug":3980,"category":3609,"order":3977},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":3982,"slug":3983,"category":3604,"order":3984},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":3986,"slug":3987,"category":3609,"order":3984},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":3989,"slug":3990,"category":3586,"order":3991},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":3993,"slug":3994,"category":3609,"order":3991},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":3996,"slug":3997,"category":3586,"order":3998},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":4000,"slug":4001,"category":3609,"order":3998},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":4003,"slug":4004,"category":3586,"order":4005},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":4007,"slug":4008,"category":3609,"order":4005},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":4010,"slug":4011,"category":3586,"order":4012},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":4014,"slug":4015,"category":3609,"order":4012},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4017,"slug":4018,"category":3586,"order":4019},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":4021,"slug":4022,"category":3609,"order":4019},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":4024,"slug":4025,"category":3586,"order":4026},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":4028,"slug":4029,"category":3609,"order":4026},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":4031,"slug":4032,"category":3586,"order":4033},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":4035,"slug":4036,"category":3609,"order":4033},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":4038,"slug":4039,"category":3586,"order":4040},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":4042,"slug":4043,"category":3609,"order":4040},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":4045,"slug":4046,"category":3586,"order":4047},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":4049,"slug":4050,"category":3609,"order":4047},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":4052,"slug":4053,"category":3586,"order":4054},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":4056,"slug":4057,"category":3609,"order":4054},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":4059,"slug":4060,"category":3586,"order":4061},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":4063,"slug":4064,"category":3609,"order":4061},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":4066,"slug":4067,"category":3586,"order":4068},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":4070,"slug":4071,"category":3609,"order":4068},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":4073,"slug":4074,"category":3586,"order":4075},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":4077,"slug":4078,"category":3609,"order":4075},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":4080,"slug":4081,"category":3586,"order":4082},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":4084,"slug":4085,"category":3609,"order":4082},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":4087,"slug":4088,"category":3586,"order":4089},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":4091,"slug":4092,"category":3609,"order":4089},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":4094,"slug":4095,"category":3586,"order":4096},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":4098,"slug":4099,"category":3609,"order":4096},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":4101,"slug":4102,"category":3586,"order":4103},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":4105,"slug":4106,"category":3609,"order":4103},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":4108,"slug":4109,"category":3586,"order":4110},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":4112,"slug":4113,"category":3609,"order":4110},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":4115,"slug":4116,"category":3586,"order":4117},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":4119,"slug":4120,"category":3609,"order":4117},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":4122,"slug":4123,"category":3586,"order":4124},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":4126,"slug":4127,"category":3609,"order":4124},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":4129,"slug":4130,"category":3586,"order":4131},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":4133,"slug":4134,"category":3609,"order":4131},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":4136,"slug":4137,"category":3586,"order":4138},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":4140,"slug":4141,"category":3609,"order":4138},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":4143,"slug":4144,"category":3586,"order":4145},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":4147,"slug":4148,"category":3609,"order":4145},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":4150,"slug":4151,"category":3586,"order":4152},"1994 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巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":4175,"slug":4176,"category":3609,"order":4173},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":4178,"slug":4179,"category":3586,"order":4180},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":4182,"slug":4183,"category":3609,"order":4180},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":4185,"slug":4186,"category":3586,"order":4187},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":4189,"slug":4190,"category":3609,"order":4187},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":4192,"slug":4193,"category":3586,"order":4194},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":4196,"slug":4197,"category":3609,"order":4194},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":4199,"slug":4200,"category":3586,"order":4201},"2001 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