[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1822},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":285,"library-sidebar-dao":1288,"library-sidebar-models":1590},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":271,"date":272,"description":273,"extension":274,"meta":275,"navigation":276,"order":277,"path":278,"seo":279,"seoDescription":273,"seoTitle":280,"slug":281,"stem":282,"__hash__":283,"_collection":284},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang.md","巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":267},"minimark",[9,13,17,24,30,37,40,45,50,55,58,69,76,79,84,87,102,109,116,123,126,133,136,139,142,145,148,151,157,160,163,166,169,186,189,192,195,198,201,204,207,210,213,216,219,222,232,238,241,244,247,250,253,264],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲",[14,15,16],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特太阳谷演讲1999",[18,19,20],"p",{},[21,22,23],"strong",{},"1999 年7 月",[25,26,27],"blockquote",{},[18,28,29],{},"太阳谷峰会简介：自1980 年代以来，美国知名投资银行家赫伯特·艾伦在爱达荷州的太阳谷(Sunvalley)举行的媒体高峰会，就已成为媒体、科技以及投资大亨界的一大盛事。太阳谷峰会是在每年7 月份为期一周的会议，在此期间，一些有影响力的人物将受邀参加。那些分别在政治、经济、科技等领域有很大的影响力的大佬将云集美国爱达荷州太阳谷参加一年一度的太阳谷峰会，这既是一次媒体大腕的交流会，同时也是各界人士交际的场合，还将促成商业交易。1999 年巴菲特为太阳谷峰会做闭幕演讲，以下为演讲节选。\u003C滚雪球>",[18,31,32,33,36],{},"朋友们，我今天想谈论一下股票市场。我会讨论一下股票的定价，但是我不会对它们下个月或下一年的波动进行预测。估值不是预测。",[21,34,35],{},"短期内，市场是投票器；而在长期，市场是称重机","。重量最终才是有价值的，但是短期内，数量很重要。这是一种非民主的投票，也不会进行文化测试决定投票资格，这些你们都了解。",[18,38,39],{},"巴菲特按下一个键，在大屏幕上播放幻灯片。巴菲特不精通电脑，此时，听众席上的比尔.盖茨屏住了呼吸，直到第一张幻灯片展示后，他才松了一口气。",[18,41,42],{},[21,43,44],{},"道琼斯工业平均指数",[18,46,47],{},[21,48,49],{},"1964 年12 月31 日，874.12 点",[18,51,52],{},[21,53,54],{},"1981 年12 月31 日，875.00 点",[18,56,57],{},"巴菲特走到屏幕前，开始进行解说。",[18,59,60,61,64,65,68],{},"在这17 年的时间里，经济规模增长了5 倍，《财富》500 强企业销售额的增长超过5 倍。然而，在这17 年里，股票市场完完全全落在了后面。当你们投资的时候，你们所做的事情是延迟消费，现在把钱投出去，在一段时间之后会获得更多的钱。关于投资，只存在两个真正的问题：",[21,62,63],{},"一是你想得到多少回报，二是你想什么时间得到回报","。伊索称不上是一位金融家，但是他说过\"",[21,66,67],{},"一鸟在手胜过双鸟在林","\"。不过，他并没有提到时间。",[18,70,71,72,75],{},"利率——借贷成本——是对\"时间\"的定价。",[21,73,74],{},"金融领域的利率就如同物理学当中的重力","。利率变化，所有金融资产，包括房子、股票、债券的价值都会发生变化，就如同鸟的价值会波动一样。这就是为什么有时手里的鸟比林子里的鸟值钱，有时林子里的鸟比手里的鸟值钱。",[18,77,78],{},"巴菲特说话音调平稳，带着鼻音，吐字快得如连珠炮，他将伊索和1990 年代的大牛市联系到了一起，而他认为这个牛市纯属瞎闹。利润的增长远远低于前期，但林子里的鸟却变得昂贵，因为利率处于低水平。利率水平如此低，想持有现金的人数在减少。因此，投资者正在向林中鸟支付闻所未闻的价格。有时，巴菲特会将其称为\"贪婪作祟\"。",[25,80,81],{},[18,82,83],{},"听众席里坐满了IT 业的领头人物，在从大牛市中获得大笔财富的同时，他们也改变着世界。此刻，他们坐在那里，一言不发。投资组合里充斥着各种估值过高的股票，而他们的公司股票处于资产组合的第一线。他们认为这是很了不起的事。这是新模式，互联网时代的黎明时刻。他们的态度是，巴菲特没有资格说他们贪婪。巴菲特这个聚敛钱财数年、几乎不往外拿的人，这个从车牌就能看出其\"节约\"的吝裔鬼，这个将大部分时间用于思考如何赚钱的人，这个打破IT 泡沫、没搭乘IT 列车的人——正在往他们的香槟里吐口水。",[18,85,86],{},"巴菲特继续他的发言。",[18,88,89,90,93,94,97,98,101],{},"只有三种方式，股票可以保持一年10%或10%以上的增长。",[21,91,92],{},"一是利率下降","，保持在历史低位。",[21,95,96],{},"二是投资者在经济中所占有的份额高于历史水平","，而非雇员、政府以及其它主体(股东效益和社会效益之间的分配比例)。还有就是",[21,99,100],{},"经济的增速开始快于正常情况","。诸如此类的乐观假设被巴菲特斥为\"痴心妄想\"。",[18,103,104,105,108],{},"有些人并不认为整个市场会繁荣，他们只是认为自己能够从中挑选出胜利者。巴菲特解释说，",[21,106,107],{},"虽然创新可能让世界摆脱贫困，但是历史上创新的投资者后期都没有以高兴收场","。他一边说，一边像乐队指挥那样挥舞着手臂，成功地换上了另一张幻灯片。",[18,110,111,112,115],{},"这张幻灯片上的内容来自于一份长达70 页的清单，里面包括了美国所有的汽车公司。这清单上面有2000 家汽车公司：汽车是20 世纪上半叶最重大的发明。它对人们的生活产生了巨大的影响。如果你在第一批汽车诞生的时代目睹了国家是如何因为汽车而发展起来的，那么你可能会说，\"这是我必须要投资的领域。\"但是，",[21,113,114],{},"在几十年前的2000 多家汽车企业中，只有3 家企业活了下来","。而且，曾几何时，这3 家公司的出售价格都低于其账面价值，即低于当初投入公司并留存下来的资金数额。因此，虽然汽车对美国产生了巨大的正面影响，但却对投资者产生了相反的冲击。",[18,117,118,119,122],{},"巴菲特放下清单，把手放进口袋说道：",[21,120,121],{},"有的时候，找出失败者要容易得多","。我想，在此之后，大家能得出显而易见的结论。你应该做的事就是卖空经营不好的公司。",[18,124,125],{},"巴菲特点击了一下，一张相关的幻灯片跳了出来：",[18,127,128],{},[129,130],"img",{"alt":131,"src":132},"","\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_8178262855386071184.png",[18,134,135],{},"",[18,137,138],{},"坦白说，我很失望，因为巴菲特一家在这期间都没有进行卖空。其实，一直都有经营失败的公司。",[18,140,141],{},"听众中有一些人轻笑起来，虽然声音不大。他们的公司可能正在亏钱，但是他们心里都确信自己是胜利者。超新星在遥远的天空闪耀着星光。毫无疑问，某一天，他们将在史册上留下美名。",[18,143,144],{},"巴菲特再点击一下，又出现一张幻灯片。",[18,146,147],{},"现在我们再来看看20 世纪另一项伟大的发明：飞机。从1919 年到1939 年，美国约有200 多家航空公司。",[18,149,150],{},"想象一下，当你处在小鹰号时代(莱特兄弟的飞机名字)，你是否能预见航空业的未来发展。你可能会看到一个你做梦都想不到的世界。不过，假设你有此远见，你预见到所有这些人要么希望坐着飞机走亲访友，要么希望离家远走高飞，或者你预见到了任何可以在飞机里做的事。然后，你决定这就是你要投资的领域。",[18,152,153,154],{},"历史上，对航空企业的所有股票投资都赚不到钱，和几年前的情形如出一辙。事实上，截至1992 年，",[21,155,156],{},"所有航空公司的合并净利是零，没错，连一毛钱也没赚过。",[18,158,159],{},"因此，我想告诉你们：我真的宁愿这么想——当我回到小鹰号时代，我会有足够的远见和\"见义勇为\"的精神，把奥维尔·莱特给打下来。但我没做到，我有愧于未来的资本投资人。",[18,161,162],{},"下面又是一阵轻笑。有些人开始对这种毫无新意、过时的例子感到厌烦，但是出于尊敬，他们继续听巴菲特讲下去。这时，巴菲特开始谈论网络新贵们所处的行业。",[18,164,165],{},"\"推广、宣传新行业是好事，因为新行业很容易推销出去。而要推销现存的产品则非常艰难。相比之下，推销没什么人懂的产品要容易得多，即使是亏损的产品，因为不存在量化的要求。\"",[18,167,168],{},"这番话直接针对席上听众，很有杀伤力。",[25,170,171,174,177,180,183],{},[18,172,173],{},"但是，你知道，人们还是会不停地投资。这让我想起一个关于石油勘探商的故事。这人死后到了天堂。 上帝说，\"我核对过你的情况，你符合所有条件，不过有一个问题。我们这里有严格的居住区法律规定，我们让所有石油勘探商待在一个区域。你也看到了，这里已经完全满了，没地方给你了。\"",[18,175,176],{},"这位石油勘探商说：\"你不介意我说句话吧？\" 上帝说：\"不介意。\"",[18,178,179],{},"于是石油勘探商把手拢在嘴边，大声叫道：\"地狱里发现石油了。\"结果可想而知，地狱之门开了，所有的石油勘探商们开始直往下冲。",[18,181,182],{},"上帝说：\"这真是一个妙计，那么，你进去吧，就跟在家一样，随意些。这片地方都归你了。\" 这位石油勘探商停了一会儿，然后说：\"不，我想我还是跟他们一起吧，毕竟，空穴不来风啊。\"",[18,184,185],{},"这就是人们认识、感受股票的方式。人们很容易相信\"空穴不来风\"这个道理。",[18,187,188],{},"这番话引起一阵不大不小的笑声，然后笑声戛然而止，因为听众一下明白了巴菲特的话中之意——他们就跟石油勘探商一样没脑子，听信传言，跑到地狱去找石油。",[18,190,191],{},"巴菲特的话锋一转，回到林中鸟。\"根本就不存在新模式，股票市场的最终价格只反映经济的产出。\"",[18,193,194],{},"巴菲特换上一张新幻灯片，图表显示出过去几年的市场价值已经大大超过了经济增长。",[18,196,197],{},"巴菲特说，这意味着之后17 年时间的市场状况不会比1964~1981 年的情况好多少，在这段时间，道琼斯指数完全没有增长。\"如果我必须给出这段时间最有可能的收益率，那可能是6%。\"不过，最近Gallup 公司的调查显示，投资者们预期的股票收益率为13~22%。",[18,199,200],{},"巴菲特走到投影幕前，浓密的眉头动来动去，他指着一张有一对赤身男女的漫画——摘自一个关于股票市场的传奇故事**《客户的游艇在哪里》**。漫画上男人对女人说：\"有些事儿没法对一名处女说清楚，无论是说给她听还是拿图片给她看。\"听众听明白了，意思就是买互联网股票的人被忽悠了。但大家都僵硬地坐在那儿，一声不吭。没人笑得出来，连轻笑、窃笑都没有。",[18,202,203],{},"巴菲特回到讲台，展示了从伯克希尔带来的\"糖果包\"。",[18,205,206],{},"\"我刚买了一家叫利捷航空的公司，它出售部分所有权的喷气机。我本想送你们每人一架湾流IV 型飞机的1\u002F4股。但当我到飞机场时，我意识到对你们大部分人来说，这实在是太委屈你们了。\"",[18,208,209],{},"这个时候，大家笑了起来。巴菲特继续说：\"作为替代，他准备送你们每人一个珠宝商用的小型放大镜，用来看看彼此太太手上戴的戒指——尤其要注意看第三任太太的。\"",[18,211,212],{},"此话颇有点睛之效，听众席上的人大笑起来，鼓掌欢呼。但随后人们又不做声了。一股怨气在整个房间暗暗涌动。在1999 年太阳谷年会上，关于股票市场过度膨胀的演讲就像是对一屋子名声不好的人宣扬贞洁。巴菲特的发言也许对听众产生了吸引力，让他们坐在椅子上不离去，但是，并不意味着他们会示弱。",[18,214,215],{},"不过，有些人认为他们听到了重要的事情。\"很了不起，这是关于股票市场的基础教程，一节课就蕴含了一",[18,217,218],{},"切。\"这是盖茨的想法。手握资金的投资经理也发现这次演讲令人感到安慰、心情舒畅。",[18,220,221],{},"巴菲特举着一本书向大家示意：",[18,223,224,225,228,229],{},"这本书对1929 年狂躁的股市进行了细致深入的分析，充满了智慧。埃德加·劳伦斯·史密斯的《普通股的长期投资》(Common Stocks as Long Term Investments)一书证明了股票收益总是高于债券。史密斯发现了5 个原因，但是其中最新颖的一个原因是，",[21,226,227],{},"公司可以保留一部分盈利，然后以同样的回报率进行再投资","。这就是收益再投资。于1924 年的创新理念。但是，正如我的导师本杰明·格雷厄姆以前一直说的：",[21,230,231],{},"好主意带给你的麻烦多于坏主意。因为你会忘记好主意是有限制条件的。",[18,233,234,235],{},"凯恩斯在他的书的序言中写道：",[21,236,237],{},"用历史的眼光对未来进行预测，是非常危险的事。",[18,239,240],{},"巴菲特赞同这一观点：人们不能因为前几年股票价格的加速上涨就以此类推。",[18,242,243],{},"\"现在，还有没有什么人没被我挖苦到？\"他反问了一句，没人举手。\"谢谢各位！\"巴菲特以此结束了发言",[18,245,246],{},"巴菲特的信条是\"表扬一个人，批评一类人\"。他并不是故意要把演讲弄得这么挑衅和倒胃口，因为他也非常在意别人怎么看他。他并没有对始作俑者指名道姓，他认为这些人不会把他的笑话当回事。巴菲特的观点论述强而有力，几乎可以说是无懈可击，以至于他认为，即使是有人不喜欢他的观点所传递的信息，他们也必须要承认其威力。听众们所感受到的所有不适均未被明确地表达出来。之后，巴菲特一直回答提问，直到会议结束。人们开始起立，对他的演讲报以掌声。无论他们对巴菲特的演说持何种态度，无论以什么标准衡量，这次演讲都堪为体现功力之作。",[18,248,249],{},"在投资行业，5 年的杰出成绩足够表现出不凡的成就，巴菲特在这个行业浸淫了44 年，一直处在第一流的位置。但是，随着纪录的拉长，问题也在一直逼近：巴菲特什么时候会停止脚步？他会宣告结束其主导支配地位吗？或是会发生某项重大变动颠覆其位吗？有些人认为，现在是时候了。也许可以用个人电脑这样的发明，再加上像互联网这样具有说服性的某项技术，来说服或反驳巴菲特。但是，巴菲特显然对可以免费获取的信息置之不理，而且无视新世纪正到来的现实。当人们礼貌客套地说\"沃伦，演讲非常精彩\"的时候，这些年轻的名流们其实心不在焉，对巴菲特的观点不以为然。",[18,251,252],{},"重点不在于巴菲特错了，而在于他最后被证明是对的，但他对未来投资的严肃预期和他传奇的过去形成了如此鲜明的对比。在巴菲特早期辉煌的日子里，股票价格很便宜，巴菲特把股票一把一把地积攒到一起，几乎就他一个人注意到了地上无人问津的金苹果。而随着时间的推移，障碍越来越多，进行投资、保持优势发现人所未见的价值，这些事情的难度都在增大。因此，既然现在是新生力最登场的时间，何必在意那个对他们进行说教的巴菲特是何许人？何必理会那个声称他们会断送牛市、挣不到钱的人呢？",[25,254,255,258,261],{},[18,256,257],{},"太阳谷后记： 这是巴菲特一生中最难熬的一段时间。1999 年夏天，《时代》周刊公然在封面羞辱巴菲特：\"沃伦，究竟哪儿出了问题？\"沃伦巴菲特是网络股最大的看空者之一，但是事实似乎证明他这次真的看错了。从1999 年下半年开始，网络股好像成了唯一的热门股。可口可乐？听起来似乎是上上个世纪的名词了。",[18,259,260],{},"巴菲特在1999 年度股东信中自我批评道：\"我唯一的功课是资本配置,而1999 年我这门功课的成绩是'D'.\"伯克希尔1999 年的净利润从去年的28 亿美元骤降到15.6 亿美元，这主要是因为巴菲特的重仓股表现差劲：冰雪皇后,GEICO 保险，可口可乐，迪士尼和美国运通。这些股票在1999 年的表现只能用\"恶心\"来形容，在科技股疯涨100%的年代，它们却在下跌。1999 年初，伯克希尔的股价曾到达80300 美元，到了2000 年初却只有50900 美元，下跌近40%。巴菲特反复默念：\"我知道市场会变化，我只是不知道变化的时间。\" 自2000 年1 月起，原本被追捧的互联网股票突然被大量抛售，并最终引发了整个纳斯达克市场的崩溃。纳指在2000 年3 月10 日触顶后回调，2001 年9 月21 日跌至1423 点，跌幅72%。2002 年10 月9 日，纳指报收1114点，较历史高点下跌了近78%。这期间，亏损、退市、甚至破产的上市公司和基金公司不计其数。",[18,262,263],{},"这一次，股神又笑到了最后。巴菲特是一位真正不随大流的智者。但是，他并不是刻意为之，他只是不在乎他人的评价。不在意他人的评价，是作为投资人的重要特质。具备这种特质，就算你不从事金融投资行业，依然可以帮助你摆脱日常的虚荣和焦虑，成就自信、从容而淡定的人生。",[265,266],"hr",{},{"title":131,"searchDepth":268,"depth":268,"links":269},2,[270],{"id":16,"depth":268,"text":16},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特在太阳谷峰会发表演讲，警告股市预期回报率过高，指出互联网泡沫风险，强调理性投资。","md",{},true,33,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":5,"description":273},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang","7-29YdgOZq5NaJjKdO9RtK8I3_TnSK8gaUF3EhyJxW8","buffett",[286,291,294,298,301,304,307,311,314,317,321,324,327,331,334,337,341,344,347,351,354,357,361,364,367,371,374,377,381,384,387,391,394,397,401,404,407,411,414,417,421,424,427,431,434,437,441,444,447,451,454,457,461,464,467,472,475,478,482,485,488,492,495,498,502,505,508,512,515,518,522,525,528,532,535,538,542,545,548,552,555,558,562,565,568,572,575,578,582,585,588,592,595,598,602,605,608,611,612,615,619,622,626,629,633,636,640,643,647,650,654,657,661,664,668,671,675,678,682,685,689,692,696,699,703,706,710,713,717,720,724,727,731,734,738,741,745,748,752,755,759,762,766,769,773,776,780,783,787,790,794,797,801,804,808,811,815,818,822,825,829,832,836,839,843,846,850,853,857,860,864,867,871,874,878,881,885,888,892,895,899,902,906,909,913,916,920,923,927,930,934,937,941,944,948,951,955,958,962,965,969,972,976,979,983,986,990,993,997,1000,1004,1007,1011,1014,1018,1021,1025,1028,1032,1035,1039,1042,1046,1049,1053,1056,1060,1063,1067,1070,1074,1077,1081,1084,1088,1092,1096,1100,1104,1108,1112,1116,1120,1124,1128,1132,1136,1140,1144,1148,1152,1156,1160,1164,1168,1172,1176,1180,1184,1188,1192,1196,1200,1204,1208,1212,1216,1220,1224,1228,1232,1236,1240,1244,1248,1252,1256,1260,1264,1268,1272,1276,1280,1284],{"title":287,"slug":288,"category":289,"order":290},"1956 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":312,"slug":313,"category":271,"order":310},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":315,"slug":316,"category":297,"order":310},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":318,"slug":319,"category":289,"order":320},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":322,"slug":323,"category":271,"order":320},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":325,"slug":326,"category":297,"order":320},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":328,"slug":329,"category":289,"order":330},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":332,"slug":333,"category":271,"order":330},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":335,"slug":336,"category":297,"order":330},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":338,"slug":339,"category":289,"order":340},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":342,"slug":343,"category":271,"order":340},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":345,"slug":346,"category":297,"order":340},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":348,"slug":349,"category":289,"order":350},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":352,"slug":353,"category":271,"order":350},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":355,"slug":356,"category":297,"order":350},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":358,"slug":359,"category":289,"order":360},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":362,"slug":363,"category":271,"order":360},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":365,"slug":366,"category":297,"order":360},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":368,"slug":369,"category":289,"order":370},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":372,"slug":373,"category":271,"order":370},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":375,"slug":376,"category":297,"order":370},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":378,"slug":379,"category":289,"order":380},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":382,"slug":383,"category":271,"order":380},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":385,"slug":386,"category":297,"order":380},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":388,"slug":389,"category":289,"order":390},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":392,"slug":393,"category":271,"order":390},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":395,"slug":396,"category":297,"order":390},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":398,"slug":399,"category":289,"order":400},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":402,"slug":403,"category":271,"order":400},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":405,"slug":406,"category":297,"order":400},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":408,"slug":409,"category":289,"order":410},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":412,"slug":413,"category":271,"order":410},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":415,"slug":416,"category":297,"order":410},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":418,"slug":419,"category":289,"order":420},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":422,"slug":423,"category":271,"order":420},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":425,"slug":426,"category":297,"order":420},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":428,"slug":429,"category":289,"order":430},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":432,"slug":433,"category":271,"order":430},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":435,"slug":436,"category":297,"order":430},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":438,"slug":439,"category":289,"order":440},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":442,"slug":443,"category":271,"order":440},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":445,"slug":446,"category":297,"order":440},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":448,"slug":449,"category":289,"order":450},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":452,"slug":453,"category":271,"order":450},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":455,"slug":456,"category":297,"order":450},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":458,"slug":459,"category":289,"order":460},"1965 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巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":802,"slug":803,"category":271,"order":800},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":805,"slug":806,"category":470,"order":807},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":809,"slug":810,"category":271,"order":807},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":812,"slug":813,"category":470,"order":814},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":816,"slug":817,"category":271,"order":814},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":819,"slug":820,"category":470,"order":821},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":823,"slug":824,"category":271,"order":821},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":826,"slug":827,"category":470,"order":828},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":830,"slug":831,"category":271,"order":828},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":833,"slug":834,"category":470,"order":835},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":837,"slug":838,"category":271,"order":835},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":840,"slug":841,"category":470,"order":842},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":844,"slug":845,"category":271,"order":842},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":847,"slug":848,"category":470,"order":849},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":851,"slug":852,"category":271,"order":849},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":854,"slug":855,"category":470,"order":856},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":858,"slug":859,"category":271,"order":856},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":861,"slug":862,"category":470,"order":863},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":865,"slug":866,"category":271,"order":863},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":868,"slug":869,"category":470,"order":870},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":872,"slug":873,"category":271,"order":870},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":875,"slug":876,"category":470,"order":877},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":879,"slug":880,"category":271,"order":877},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":882,"slug":883,"category":470,"order":884},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":886,"slug":887,"category":271,"order":884},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":889,"slug":890,"category":470,"order":891},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":893,"slug":894,"category":271,"order":891},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":896,"slug":897,"category":470,"order":898},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":900,"slug":901,"category":271,"order":898},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":903,"slug":904,"category":470,"order":905},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":907,"slug":908,"category":271,"order":905},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":910,"slug":911,"category":470,"order":912},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":914,"slug":915,"category":271,"order":912},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":917,"slug":918,"category":470,"order":919},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":921,"slug":922,"category":271,"order":919},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":924,"slug":925,"category":470,"order":926},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":928,"slug":929,"category":271,"order":926},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":931,"slug":932,"category":470,"order":933},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":935,"slug":936,"category":271,"order":933},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":938,"slug":939,"category":470,"order":940},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":942,"slug":943,"category":271,"order":940},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":945,"slug":946,"category":470,"order":947},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":949,"slug":950,"category":271,"order":947},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":952,"slug":953,"category":470,"order":954},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":956,"slug":957,"category":271,"order":954},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":959,"slug":960,"category":470,"order":961},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":963,"slug":964,"category":271,"order":961},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":966,"slug":967,"category":470,"order":968},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":970,"slug":971,"category":271,"order":968},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":973,"slug":974,"category":470,"order":975},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":977,"slug":978,"category":271,"order":975},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":980,"slug":981,"category":470,"order":982},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":984,"slug":985,"category":271,"order":982},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":987,"slug":988,"category":470,"order":989},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":991,"slug":992,"category":271,"order":989},"巴菲特：2009年阿克伦大学商学院问答实录","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":994,"slug":995,"category":470,"order":996},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":998,"slug":999,"category":271,"order":996},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1001,"slug":1002,"category":470,"order":1003},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1005,"slug":1006,"category":271,"order":1003},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1008,"slug":1009,"category":470,"order":1010},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1012,"slug":1013,"category":271,"order":1010},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1015,"slug":1016,"category":470,"order":1017},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1019,"slug":1020,"category":271,"order":1017},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1022,"slug":1023,"category":470,"order":1024},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1026,"slug":1027,"category":271,"order":1024},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1029,"slug":1030,"category":470,"order":1031},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1033,"slug":1034,"category":271,"order":1031},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1036,"slug":1037,"category":470,"order":1038},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1040,"slug":1041,"category":271,"order":1038},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1043,"slug":1044,"category":470,"order":1045},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1047,"slug":1048,"category":271,"order":1045},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1050,"slug":1051,"category":470,"order":1052},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1054,"slug":1055,"category":271,"order":1052},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1057,"slug":1058,"category":470,"order":1059},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1061,"slug":1062,"category":271,"order":1059},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1064,"slug":1065,"category":470,"order":1066},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1068,"slug":1069,"category":271,"order":1066},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1071,"slug":1072,"category":470,"order":1073},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":1075,"slug":1076,"category":271,"order":1073},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1078,"slug":1079,"category":470,"order":1080},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":1082,"slug":1083,"category":271,"order":1080},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":1085,"slug":1086,"category":271,"order":1087},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":1089,"slug":1090,"category":271,"order":1091},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":1093,"slug":1094,"category":271,"order":1095},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":1097,"slug":1098,"category":271,"order":1099},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":1101,"slug":1102,"category":271,"order":1103},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":1105,"slug":1106,"category":271,"order":1107},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":1109,"slug":1110,"category":271,"order":1111},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":271,"order":1115},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":1117,"slug":1118,"category":271,"order":1119},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":1121,"slug":1122,"category":271,"order":1123},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":1125,"slug":1126,"category":271,"order":1127},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":1129,"slug":1130,"category":271,"order":1131},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":1133,"slug":1134,"category":271,"order":1135},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":1137,"slug":1138,"category":271,"order":1139},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 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