[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1890},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":353,"library-sidebar-dao":1356,"library-sidebar-models":1658},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":339,"date":340,"description":341,"extension":342,"meta":343,"navigation":344,"order":345,"path":346,"seo":347,"seoDescription":341,"seoTitle":348,"slug":349,"stem":350,"__hash__":351,"_collection":352},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang.md","巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":335},"minimark",[9,13,17,23,28,34,37,42,45,50,53,56,60,65,68,72,77,80,83,86,91,94,98,103,106,111,114,120,123,128,131,135,140,143,148,151,156,159,164,167,172,175,178,182,187,193,196,200,205,208,211,215,220,223,226,230,235,238,241,244,247,251,256,259,262,268,272,277,280,285,288,291,295,300,303,306,309,313,318,321,326,329],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受cnbc采访",[14,15,16],"p",{},"2019年5月6日",[18,19,20],"blockquote",{},[14,21,22],{},"导读：2019年5月6日，在CNBC的栏目“Squawk Box”中，就是特朗普刚刚在推特上宣布会在5月10号提高关税的那一天，巴菲特接受了电视采访。同时接受采访的还有查理芒格和比尔盖兹",[24,25,27],"h4",{"id":26},"第1个问题对中国的关税和贸易谈判的看法","第1个问题：对中国的关税和贸易谈判的看法",[14,29,30],{},[31,32,33],"strong",{},"BECKY QUICK: 一些重大的新闻在我们谈话间正在发生，我们想知道您对重启关税加码及贸易会谈的想法？",[14,35,36],{},"**巴菲特：**我并不能预估双方将如何进行谈判，不同的人有不同的谈判的方式。现实中，如果贸易战真的发生，是对全世界都很差的，甚至非常差的事情。有时候人在谈判中会在言语上很强势以虚张声势，但是你不能先给个巴掌再给颗糖，这样的战术并不好用。所以当你真的强势推进的时候，你必须维持强势的态度一段时间，不然就毫无意义。这样的情况下，你不可能确定后果和对方的反应，对方有自己的计算和内政考虑等等。这会是一个危险的游戏。",[14,38,39],{},[31,40,41],{},"BECKY QUICK: 但我们不能把特朗普总统的声明当做空穴来风，我们不能指望这件事在周五不会发生，是吗？您也参与很多交易的谈判，这会是您的战术吗？",[14,43,44],{},"**巴菲特：**是的，我们必须相信这件事会实际发生。但这样的操作完全不是我的风格。我在谈判中有统一的风格，是优点，也可能是缺点。我完全不会做多余的事情。所以人们都清楚地知道我的意思，并可以自己决定是不是接受，他们知道我不玩游戏。虽然我知道很多参与并购谈判的人都喜欢用猜来猜去的游戏，但我并不想在这种事情上花时间。",[14,46,47],{},[31,48,49],{},"BECKY QUICK: 实际一点，那我们现在就来谈谈如果这周五对中国200亿货物的关税从10%上涨至25%，影响会有多大？对伯克希尔哈撒韦的影响会如何？我们看到Brooks Running(伯克希尔哈撒韦旗下一间跑鞋公司)从贸易战开始就把很多运营搬到了越南。",[14,51,52],{},"**巴菲特：**上涨关税这件事会对全世界都影响深远，并不只牵涉了一个国家,全世界所有事情都是有关联的。开始战争容易但是结束并不是，如果是在长期且大规模的战争，影响会很巨大。并不会只限于两个国家之间，而会从一个国家传播到另一个。而正是这样核战规模后果把双方带到了谈判桌前。这是很多人会玩的把戏。但是最好别有太多核战规模的威胁，不然有一天很可能有人会觉得必须发起一场。市场反应是合理的。如果上周你觉得贸易战的可能性是1%，这周就是10%了。市场会很快对此做出反应。",[14,54,55],{},"其实我们看到联运货物的增长从几个月前就开始了。人们开始提前囤积库存。这会扭曲很多事情，并且影响的范围和速度无法预测。很多数据会看起来非常好，而我们认为很好的经济和经济数据很可能只是囤积库存提前销售的假象。",[24,57,59],{"id":58},"第2个问题有关卡夫食品的利润","第2个问题：有关卡夫食品的利润",[14,61,62],{},[31,63,64],{},"BECKY QUICK: 在我们谈话间，卡夫食品发布公告，由于几个采购部门员工的操作失误，公司需要重算2016及2017年的利润，但不认为修正的幅度对其会计年度的报表构成重大影响，应该小于2%每年。您对此怎么看？",[14,66,67],{},"**巴菲特：**我们持有超过卡夫食品20%的股份，所以我们会录入他们的利润而不是分红。卡夫食品第一季度归属给我们的分红约为1.3亿美金，但在发布我们自己年报之时还没有收到他们经普华永道签名的报表。为保守起见，我们并没有录入任何来自他们公司的利润。而当他们拿到审计后的数字时，调整的规模也不会对我们的报表产生重大影响。我并不了解对卡夫员工的调查和普华永华和卡夫之间地细节，我的员工在跟进这件事情。但是作为一家百年企业，我仍然对卡夫食品有信心。",[24,69,71],{"id":70},"第3个问题有关石油","第3个问题：有关石油",[14,73,74],{},[31,75,76],{},"BECKY QUICK: 您支持了石油公司Occidental对石油勘探公司Anadarko的收购。可以谈谈您对这个交易以及石油行业的看法吗？",[14,78,79],{},"（本交易已于5月9日完成，Occidental打败了其五倍规模的收购竞争对手雪佛龙石油，Occidental以每股59美金现金和0.2934股收购Anadarko的股票, 交易金额380亿。这个交易给Occidental带来了现在油气行业热门地区，西德克萨斯和西墨西哥州盆地的丰富石油储备。）",[14,81,82],{},"**巴菲特：**我们的确和Occidental达成了协议，如果他们收购Anadarko成功，我们会提供100亿美元的资金。但是我们不参与他们对收购Anadarko要约的结构和谈判，签约也不需要征得我们的同意，这是一个非常慷慨的协议,是一个100%的承诺。但出于礼节他们昨天还是电话和我们沟通了。之前一周的周日上午10点我们与他们见了面，11点就决定投资。这就是与伯克希尔哈撒韦合作的一个优势，我们规模足够大，可以做其他人不喜欢，或其他人的律师不喜欢他们做的事情。而这样一个与Occidental的慷慨协议也不是我们律师会主动起草的文件。",[14,84,85],{},"虽然我们不参与谈判，但是在伯克希尔哈撒韦我们痛恨发行股票。通常情况下，如果我们持有的公司想要进行并购的时候，我们更喜欢他们用现金而不是股票，因为我们希望持有他们的股票。我们很高兴看到交易在向我们偏好的方向发展，但我们并没有参与谈判或施加影响。",[14,87,88],{},[31,89,90],{},"BECKY QUICK:您对Occidental的投资差不多是一个股息8%的优先股，所以这个交易的出发点是为了这个股息，还是来自看好西德克萨斯盆地和油价的潜力。",[14,92,93],{},"**巴菲特：**当然如果有油的话，8%的股息是很不错的。这肯定是一个长期看好油价的投资，也是一个对西德克萨斯盆地的赌注。长期油价走势会决定这个行业任何的投资是不是值得。我和查理对此有自己的看法，不是很具体，但我们对趋势和对这个交易充满信心。",[24,95,97],{"id":96},"第4个问题有关苹果和股票回购","第4个问题：有关苹果和股票回购。",[14,99,100],{},[31,101,102],{},"BECKY QUICK:苹果周一开盘在204.91，比上周五收盘222.75下跌不少。中国是苹果的一个重要组成部分。而苹果现在是伯克希尔最大的股票持仓，也是苹果第三大股东。我们周末采访了第一次来奥马哈参加年会的库克，他对伯克希尔买入苹果做了如下回应。",[14,104,105],{},"**库克（录音）：**我其实和你们一样，在他们买入后才知道。我们是以长期的理念来运营公司，所以我们对巴菲特的投资非常惊喜，我们的利益是一致的。我之前就认识巴菲特，但这次我并没有得到任何消息，他们应该有自己投资公司的一套方法。我非常荣幸他能投资我们，这是一种认可和荣誉。巴菲特曾经说过他不投资科技公司因为他不懂，所以他把苹果当成一个消费品公司，我认为这非常特别。",[14,107,108],{},[31,109,110],{},"BECKY QUICK: 与中国的事情会影响几乎您所有的持仓，但苹果尤其处于这个冲突的中心。中国对苹果来说非常重要，所以苹果的股票从去年年底开始就在受压。所以今天的新闻对苹果来说有没有特别的风险，对您意味着什么呢？",[14,112,113],{},"**巴菲特：**重要地是与中国地关系在三五到二十年后会如何。我很难想象世界上两个超级大国会长时间地处于一个对双方都没有利的境地中。但是这可能性并不是零，总有一些误算的不理性的因素比如国家的尊严等等。如果这最差的状况真的发生了，会对我们公司所有的持仓，会对美国经济，全球经济都有负面影响。而苹果并不是一个独立的公司，在一个两个超级大国核战规模的贸易冲突中，没有谁可以独善其身，而你也无法预测后果会有多严重。",[14,115,116,119],{},[31,117,118],{},"BECKY QUICK:"," 我们想多聊聊股票回购，不光是苹果的，这个主题也在股东大会上被提出多次。您手上有1100美金的现金，您为什么不回购公司的股票呢？",[14,121,122],{},"**巴菲特：**股票回购可以是聪明的也可以是愚蠢的操作。很多时候，CEO没法对公司的真实价值及股价做出客观的估算。在苹果他们做的很聪明。我们想买我们的股票。但我们只会在一种情况下回购，那就是股东会在我们回购后得到更大利益。也就是说，我们只会购买每股价格低于公司内在价值的股票。而公司的内在价值并不是一个准确的数字，可能是一个在10%左右的区间，我和查理对这个价值会有一个近似的估算。",[14,124,125],{},[31,126,127],{},"BECKY QUICK: 苹果现在他们除了股票回购，还在做很多的并购，事实上，大概每一到两周就有一个并购交易。过去6个月完成了20-30个交易。",[14,129,130],{},"**巴菲特：**是的，苹果做了很多并购。我希望伯克希尔哈撒韦也做很多并购。我们希望买更多吸引人的公司而不是我们自己公司的股票。当然，如果股票价格低于公司的内在价值，我们可以两个同时进行。",[24,132,134],{"id":133},"第5个问题还是回到对中国的关税","第5个问题：还是回到对中国的关税",[14,136,137],{},[31,138,139],{},"BECKY QUICK: 我们想多了解下您的想法，对中国的关税会对美国的公司及对伯克希尔有什么影响。",[14,141,142],{},"**巴菲特：**如果你有一个在未来十年都会很成功的生意，你为什么要因为一个新闻就把他卖掉呢？这个道理适用于农场，房地产，证券投资等各种生意。你不应该为了股票一天的变动而情绪波动。除非你手上还有闲钱，这样你可以花更低地价钱买下你隔壁的生意。",[14,144,145],{},[31,146,147],{},"JOE KERNEN: 您和您的公司在过去的时间和中美关系的背景下做得非常成功。我们都过得很好。但是现在情况变了。您有没有希望特朗普总统没有这样地与中国争锋相对，不要在比如知识产权等长期问题上纠结？还是您觉得这一行动有他的合理性？",[14,149,150],{},"**巴菲特：**我可以告诉你的是，中国和美国在接下来的数百年内会是世界上的两个超级力量，我们总会看到他们之间的紧张局面。可以是有关知识产权，可以是有关贸易，可以是有关国家政策等等。两个实力如此相近的超级大国不可能共存而没有冲突。我们应该习惯于看到各种形式冲突和谈判的存在，有时候我们会感觉双方都输了，我们之间不会总是像花园派对那样轻松愉快。当谈判到了一个如此大的规模，得到一个双赢的结果并不是那么容易。",[14,152,153],{},[31,154,155],{},"BECKY QUICK: 我尝试想在现在的情况下想象这样一个双赢的结果，但确实很难。因为很长一段时间我们都没有把中国当成一个超级大国，所以可以做出让步。所以当我们突然说，我们要拿回一些了，这对双方都是很困难的。",[14,157,158],{},"**巴菲特：**是的，对我们来说这很难接受。我们很难接受在二战之后苏联成为了一个军事上的超级力量，当时局势也充满冲突和谈判。我们有世界上两大核储备，这样规模的博弈，犯错的后果不可估量。和中国是一个巨大的经济博弈，一个我们几十年前没有想到会是对手方的博弈。中国以超常的速度发展他们的经济，为之做了一些我们不喜欢的事情。很容易这就成为一个政治层面的事情，我们会看到两国人们站在政治和经济上对立面。但这无法避免也很难操控，这就要看领导人的能力了。",[14,160,161,163],{},[31,162,118],{}," 说了这些，但可以看到我们的经济在冲突中仍然表现良好，上周的就业数据和GDP数据尤其强劲。",[14,165,166],{},"**巴菲特：**是的，你无法阻止美国的前进。同样你也不能阻止中国的。不论如何，我们两个国家都会继续前进。我们应该让两国的发展都最大化，越多的贸易越有帮助，虽然某些行业的贸易会损害另一国某些行业的利益。所以两国领导人应该挑起教育者的担子，告诉民众贸易对人民和国家发展总体是好的，即使某些行业里存在利益冲突，国家也会为这些牺牲的行业提供保障。",[14,168,169],{},[31,170,171],{},"BECKU QUICK:高盛说今天这一新闻会极大降低与中国达成一个贸易协议的可能性，并增加退出NAFTA和对欧洲汽车加高关税的可能性。您认为如何，这意味着什么？",[14,173,174],{},"**巴菲特：**冲突升级永远都不是好事。我们过去经历过核武器的冲突升级，人民感到越来越受到威胁，在政治上越来越受到煽动。这需要来自领导人的智慧，同样需要人民的智慧。过去发生过战争，但我们不应该再让战争发生，甚至不应该接近那样的境地。",[14,176,177],{},"我是支持原先的NAFTA的，我们很幸运能有加拿大和墨西哥当我们的邻居，地理上我们占有独一无二的有利位置。我们也有非常多的共同利益，我们应该让邻居和我们共同发展，而不是把他们当成敌人。",[24,179,181],{"id":180},"第6个问题和查理芒格的搭档","第6个问题：和查理芒格的搭档",[14,183,184],{},[31,185,186],{},"BECKY QUICK: 我们欢迎查理芒格加入我们。巴菲特和查理，你们做搭档多久了，感觉如何？",[14,188,189,192],{},[31,190,191],{},"巴菲特:"," 我们在60年前，1959年认识，立刻一拍即合成为了搭档。我们非常合拍，思维方法很像。我们有过意见不同，但从来没有过争吵，他从没有质疑过我，我也尝试不去质疑他，这是一段很棒的关系，也很有意思。。我们知道彼此的想法和思维，我们从不会做让对方反对的事情。比如Occidental的交易我一个人敲定了，但我知道查理肯定会和我想法一致。",[14,194,195],{},"**查理芒格：**是啊，60年了。我知道我们步调一致，但真的没想到我们的小公司会成长到如此规模，这是一段很棒的经历，我们运气非常好。是的，我对Occidental的前景同样看好，巴菲特知道我肯定会支持这个交易，事实上我一直在跟踪油田发展的动态。但我们的确希望有懂行业的人像Occidental来运营，而不是直接投资石油。我们曾经尝试过投资一个塞尔维亚的油田，资金有去无回。",[24,197,199],{"id":198},"第7个问题有关新股上市","第7个问题：有关新股上市",[14,201,202],{},[31,203,204],{},"BECKY QUICK: 让我谈谈最近的新股，很多表现出色。UBER这周上市，您对此有什么看法？",[14,206,207],{},"**巴菲特：**我在18个月前看过UBER但是没有投，事实上，在我的投资几十年的历史里，我从来没有买过新股。我认为伯克希尔哈撒韦以后也永远不会。IPO是一个所有人都有卖出动力，经纪佣金最高的一个日子，投资人情绪高涨而不理性，世界上有太多其他更好的投资机会了。当你买任何一家公司的时候，你应该可以用一页纸说明买它的理由和价值，而不要受市场情绪的影响。",[14,209,210],{},"**查理芒格：**而很多这些新上市的公司在融资和分配上有很多猫腻和谎言。我不喜欢谎言。",[24,212,214],{"id":213},"第8个问题有关-富国银行-的丑闻","第8个问题：有关 富国银行 的丑闻",[14,216,217],{},[31,218,219],{},"BECKY QUICK:为什么您一直支持美国富国银行？（富国银行深陷账户诈骗的丑闻。分行的理财经理的业绩指标和客户使用他们账户的频率做挂钩，所以分行工作人员假造了很多虚假账户和账户活动。）",[14,221,222],{},"**查理芒格：**我认为这是一家很好的公司。虽然他们对于激励计划做出了一些错误的决定，我认为这只是无心之失，而不是大的道德问题。是下面的人由于疯狂的激励计划做出了犯罪行为，高层并没有参与其中，但他们也因为疏忽而丢掉了工作。",[14,224,225],{},"**巴菲特：**我认为很大一部分问题在这次丑闻之后应该可以得到解决，而新的CEO最好不要从华尔街选。",[24,227,229],{"id":228},"第9个问题三位对和中国贸易战和能否达成协议的看法","第9个问题：三位对和中国贸易战和能否达成协议的看法",[14,231,232],{},[31,233,234],{},"BECKY QUICK: 您们三位都去过中国和他们有过接触，计划或已经在那进行投资。比尔，你对今天的这个新闻有什么看法，对于一个贸易战的潜在后果？而刘鹤代表团刚刚确认还会来美国谈判，这一行为本身是不是就是好的迹象？达成协议的可能性有多大呢？",[14,236,237],{},"**比尔盖茨：**我认为一个好的贸易关系是双赢的，人们把这想做是一个零和的博弈是很可怕的。虽然有最近的这个推特新闻，我还是非常希望能够达成一个贸易协议，两国可以找到一个共同合作的方式，这是现在世界上最重要的关系了。我能理解为什么市场在担心关税会越加越高。但如果双方都升级其中的冲突，可能会变成一个双输的状态。中国因为他们的政治体系，并不需要在一个固定时间期间来解决这个事情，他们的领导人在决策上会受到更少的约束。但是我们有，当你有一个最后期限的时候，这会是个进退两难的局面。但我还是觉得有可能可以达成协议，这是一个理性的结果。",[14,239,240],{},"**查理芒格：**我同意比尔说的，我认为一个好的协议肯定好于一个世界大战。中国是个很好的地方，至少对中国人来说，我们希望他们发展良好。而我预测他们会最终达成一个协议。但是我们在过去也对日本的卡车加过长时间的关税，那也过去了。所以如果我们两国这次真的在某些行业加了一些关税，我也认为这是正常的，这只是正常的一个市场事件。双方都有理由感到担忧，但我不认为我们想要一个双方都无法承受的全面的贸易战争。这会是非常愚蠢的。但是在谈判过程中如果双方受挫和失望，也是正常的。我不完全认同他，但我也不认为特朗普总统说的为了拯救某些行业而加高关税是完全没道理的。",[14,242,243],{},"**巴菲特：**的确，最后期限是个敏感的东西，会煽动人们的情绪，但有时候也是达到目的的最好手段。我们永远会有不同意见，但是你不能把这升级为一些更严重的情况，这会让事态失去控制。最好的谈判是让另一方渴望一些需要的东西，但又让他们觉得自己是英雄，同时我们得到我们想到的。",[14,245,246],{},"关税是由消费者来承担的，这会改变人们的购买习惯。虽然说在某些货物比如军事设备等有例外，总体来说我还是相信自由贸易。我认为在一个接近自由贸易的世界里，更多的人可以过得更好。这是永远会是一个谈判主题。",[24,248,250],{"id":249},"第10个问题三位对投资中国会有什么变化","第10个问题：三位对投资中国会有什么变化？",[14,252,253],{},[31,254,255],{},"BECKY QUICK:如果从您们的公司来看，贸易谈判对您和您的投资，甚至个人的投资会有什么影响？是否会减少您对中国投资的热情？",[14,257,258],{},"**查理芒格：**不会有影响。",[14,260,261],{},"**巴菲特：**并不会，如果我们今天接到一个从中国打来的电话，推荐一个我们认为很好的公司的话，我们还是会投资。以我们如此大的规模，我们会在美国以外的大的市场有所行动。而中国正是美国以外最大的市场，会有很多机会，在那投资是非常合理的选择。",[14,263,264,267],{},[31,265,266],{},"比尔盖茨:"," 与贸易会谈同时发生的还有科技专业体系的博弈，比如人工智能。所以我对此有一些担忧，他们在这方面是不是会尝试分离中国和美国学生。而有一些商业及交易的流程是针对中国的，而他们正在讨论是不是要将这些更加收紧，甚至是技术上的合作也减慢了。这让人担忧。",[24,269,271],{"id":270},"第11个问题有关资本主义","第11个问题：有关资本主义",[14,273,274],{},[31,275,276],{},"BECKY QUICK:我们最近有很多有关社会主义和资本主义的讨论，尤其在我们接近另一个大选之年的时候。过去的周末有一些捍卫关资本主义的声音，您们对此有什么看法？巴菲特和比尔，你们作为支持者都因此受到的攻击，有什么看法？",[14,278,279],{},"**巴菲特：**我不认为人们理解资本主义的真正含义。但是你可以看看自1776年建国以来的发展，与任何中央集权的经济体相比，这个国家利用资源和人类的创造力完成了多么出色的任务。资本主义下的市场制度是一个证明了可以异常有效率地利用资源来生产的制度。人类的创造力在市场制度下被最大地激发出来，如果同样的事情由政府来做可能不会发生。但这不意味着所有的决策都必须由开放的市场来决定，它应该受到管理。",[14,281,282,284],{},[31,283,266],{}," 一些人认为你如果捍卫资本主义你就是支持现在的税收，而不赞成累进税制。我和巴菲特都不认为税收结构可以更加累进了，但是我们明确表示过遗产税等等可以是个好事。社会主义曾经意味着政府控制生产方式，但很多支持社会主义的人们并不是用这个传统的定义。很多人只是在说税收需要改变，所以我们将会有看到不同等级的税收的资本主义。",[14,286,287],{},"的确，我认为教育是美国成就平等机会这一梦想不可或缺的。但是在市区低收入人群的学生，到大学，到老师都还有很多需要改善的地方，进展有些缓慢。相比盖茨基金会在全球医疗健康领域的成就，在教育上看到明显的发展更加困难。",[14,289,290],{},"**查理芒格：**资本主义最好的证据就是中国。中国复制了新加坡，让农民拥有土地自己耕种，让制造业拥有自己的工厂等等。财产私有化推动中国的生产效率翻了数倍，而这里面有很大资本主义的成分。如果一个民主国家的政客看不懂这个他就是个傻子。",[24,292,294],{"id":293},"第12个问题对于美联储和美国股票的看法在5月23日的fomc议息会议纪要中美联储维持基准利率不变大部分官员认为近期核心通胀低于2标准线下的走弱是暂时性地就业数据良好但是家庭支出和固定投资在第一季度有所放缓美联储表示会在现在这个局势下采取一个耐心的观望态度","第12个问题：对于美联储和美国股票的看法（在5月23日的FOMC议息会议纪要中，美联储维持基准利率不变。大部分官员认为近期核心通胀低于2%标准线下的走弱是“暂时性地”。就业数据良好，但是家庭支出和固定投资在第一季度有所放缓。美联储表示会在现在这个局势下采取一个“耐心”的观望态度。）",[14,296,297],{},[31,298,299],{},"BECKY QUICK: 美联储表示短期内不会加息了，这对你们对股票或国债的看法会有什么影响？你们是否认为我们应该继续使用特朗普总统提到的刺激工具，他说要降息1%，并且重启量化宽松，加杠杆。",[14,301,302],{},"**比尔盖茨：**利率就像万有引力，所有的估值都受到它巨大的影响。第一季度美国股票上涨强势，但是往后看，估值已经非常高了。所以想看到市场在今后几年继续大涨有些困难，人们应该对他们的投资组合收益有理性的期望。我自己的组合还是以股票为重，超配美国，虽然也有一些海外头寸。即使有一些年份可能会表现不佳，但这是一个长期看多美国经济的组合。",[14,304,305],{},"**查理芒格：**你的确可以把利率降到零并且全球都疯狂印钱，他们把对应经济衰退的唯一工具用到了极致。借债成本为零自然而然地导致富人更富。我对人们认为印钱可以解决所有问题这一普遍想法感到担忧。没人知道印钱最后是不是会失去控制，是不是会变成委内瑞拉那样。也许不是短期，但我知道这么做肯定会失败。新加坡是一个零负债的国家，如果由我来管理我会希望美国是这样的。",[14,307,308],{},"**巴菲特：**我想我之前不会想象到这样一个完美的世界，零失业率，5%财政赤字，低通胀，同时长期债券只有3%收益率。在零利率环境下我们基本可以无成本地印钱，而同时有完美的就业和零通胀。人们认为应该用本币借债，这的确更安全，但是我认为不该对此依赖。这一系列指标让人觉得不可思议。而我觉得不可思议的事情通常是不可持续的。但是这的确发生了，而在现在这个情况下股票非常的便宜。",[24,310,312],{"id":311},"第13个也是最后一个问题有关-医疗健康","第13个也是最后一个问题：有关 医疗健康",[14,314,315],{},[31,316,317],{},"BECKY QUICK:比尔您在全球健康医疗上是绝对权威，您的基金从2017年以来已花费超过130亿美金。进展如何？",[14,319,320],{},"**比尔盖茨：**这是非常令人振奋人心的事情。我们可以看到仅仅用到疫苗和一些其他简单的工具比如对付疟疾的蚊帐，就能把因此死亡的孩子人数从10万降低到少于5万。但是5万还是很多。我们需要更多的工具，但是这方面的创新流程前景非常好。我们另一个方向是要降低营养不良的人数。一旦营养正常了，孩子们可以正常发展身体和脑力上的各种机能，大大降低患各种疾病的机率。我们做了很长的研究实验，有关肠胃的，发现其实只需要用一些简单的广谱药品和补充剂就可以达到目的。量产后这些可以变得非常便宜，可以有巨大的效果，我们对此也非常期待。",[14,322,323],{},[31,324,325],{},"BECKY QUICK: 巴菲特，在美国国内，伯克希尔哈撒韦与JP摩根和亚马逊一起在关注医疗支出的问题，可以谈谈进展吗？",[14,327,328],{},"**巴菲特：**我们刚刚开始长征的第一步，这会是一个如预期般非常艰难的过程。这是一个与美国政府收入相当规模的一个行业。这个行业不缺资金，但是每一块钱的收入和支出背后都有利益集团。医疗支出占联邦预算从5%上涨到18%，而且势头不减。我们面谈了行业里的各类从业人员，人人都同意这个系统需要改变，但不是自己那部分。所以没人比我们现在的几个合作公司更适合研究从哪里入手削减费用，让这个系统更加有效。我宁愿私营部门发现一个解决办法，然后全丢给政府。",[14,330,331,334],{},[31,332,333],{},"查理芒格","：是的。还是看看新加坡的例子，他们有一个聪明的并且做事得当的政府，只花费我们20%的医疗费用就让人民更加健康。而在美国，医疗改革之路漫漫且会举步艰难，因为很多人从现有的系统中获取利益。这个国家普通企业的医疗保险的免赔额简直高的离谱，这会让很多普通人因看病而破产。",{"title":336,"searchDepth":337,"depth":337,"links":338},"",2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特、芒格在CNBC接受采访，谈论特朗普关税政策、Archegos爆仓事件，分享投资洞察与人生经验。","md",{},true,129,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",{"title":5,"description":341},"巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang","7hJs1b-Jf0pu2XTCUwX3FfBlClLLQJrb-3A5kdspWJo","buffett",[354,359,362,366,369,372,375,379,382,385,389,392,395,399,402,405,409,412,415,419,422,425,429,432,435,439,442,445,449,452,455,459,462,465,469,472,475,479,482,485,489,492,495,499,502,505,509,512,515,519,522,525,529,532,535,540,543,546,550,553,556,560,563,566,570,573,576,580,583,586,590,593,596,600,603,606,610,613,616,620,623,626,630,633,636,640,643,646,650,653,656,660,663,666,670,673,676,680,683,686,690,693,697,700,704,707,711,714,718,721,725,728,732,735,739,742,746,749,753,756,760,763,767,770,774,777,781,784,788,791,795,798,802,805,809,812,816,819,823,826,830,833,837,840,844,847,851,854,858,861,865,868,872,875,879,882,886,889,893,896,900,903,907,910,914,917,921,924,928,931,935,938,942,945,949,952,956,959,963,966,970,973,977,980,984,987,991,994,998,1001,1005,1008,1012,1015,1019,1022,1026,1029,1033,1036,1040,1043,1047,1050,1054,1057,1061,1064,1068,1071,1075,1078,1082,1085,1089,1092,1096,1099,1103,1106,1110,1113,1117,1120,1124,1127,1131,1134,1138,1141,1145,1148,1152,1155,1159,1163,1167,1171,1175,1179,1183,1187,1191,1195,1199,1203,1207,1211,1215,1219,1223,1227,1231,1235,1239,1243,1247,1251,1255,1259,1263,1267,1268,1272,1276,1280,1284,1288,1292,1296,1300,1304,1308,1312,1316,1320,1324,1328,1332,1336,1340,1344,1348,1352],{"title":355,"slug":356,"category":357,"order":358},"1956 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巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":761,"slug":762,"category":339,"order":759},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":764,"slug":765,"category":538,"order":766},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":768,"slug":769,"category":339,"order":766},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":771,"slug":772,"category":538,"order":773},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":775,"slug":776,"category":339,"order":773},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":778,"slug":779,"category":538,"order":780},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":782,"slug":783,"category":339,"order":780},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":785,"slug":786,"category":538,"order":787},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":789,"slug":790,"category":339,"order":787},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":792,"slug":793,"category":538,"order":794},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":796,"slug":797,"category":339,"order":794},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":799,"slug":800,"category":538,"order":801},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":803,"slug":804,"category":339,"order":801},"巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":806,"slug":807,"category":538,"order":808},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":810,"slug":811,"category":339,"order":808},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":813,"slug":814,"category":538,"order":815},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":817,"slug":818,"category":339,"order":815},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":820,"slug":821,"category":538,"order":822},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":824,"slug":825,"category":339,"order":822},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":827,"slug":828,"category":538,"order":829},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":831,"slug":832,"category":339,"order":829},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":834,"slug":835,"category":538,"order":836},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":838,"slug":839,"category":339,"order":836},"巴菲特：2005年加州大学问答纪要","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":841,"slug":842,"category":538,"order":843},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":845,"slug":846,"category":339,"order":843},"巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":848,"slug":849,"category":538,"order":850},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":852,"slug":853,"category":339,"order":850},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":855,"slug":856,"category":538,"order":857},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":859,"slug":860,"category":339,"order":857},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":862,"slug":863,"category":538,"order":864},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":866,"slug":867,"category":339,"order":864},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":869,"slug":870,"category":538,"order":871},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":873,"slug":874,"category":339,"order":871},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":876,"slug":877,"category":538,"order":878},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":880,"slug":881,"category":339,"order":878},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":883,"slug":884,"category":538,"order":885},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":887,"slug":888,"category":339,"order":885},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":890,"slug":891,"category":538,"order":892},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":894,"slug":895,"category":339,"order":892},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":897,"slug":898,"category":538,"order":899},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":901,"slug":902,"category":339,"order":899},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":904,"slug":905,"category":538,"order":906},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":908,"slug":909,"category":339,"order":906},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":911,"slug":912,"category":538,"order":913},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":915,"slug":916,"category":339,"order":913},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":918,"slug":919,"category":538,"order":920},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":922,"slug":923,"category":339,"order":920},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":925,"slug":926,"category":538,"order":927},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":929,"slug":930,"category":339,"order":927},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":932,"slug":933,"category":538,"order":934},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":936,"slug":937,"category":339,"order":934},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":939,"slug":940,"category":538,"order":941},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":943,"slug":944,"category":339,"order":941},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":946,"slug":947,"category":538,"order":948},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":950,"slug":951,"category":339,"order":948},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":953,"slug":954,"category":538,"order":955},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":957,"slug":958,"category":339,"order":955},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":960,"slug":961,"category":538,"order":962},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":964,"slug":965,"category":339,"order":962},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":967,"slug":968,"category":538,"order":969},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":971,"slug":972,"category":339,"order":969},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":974,"slug":975,"category":538,"order":976},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":978,"slug":979,"category":339,"order":976},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":981,"slug":982,"category":538,"order":983},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":985,"slug":986,"category":339,"order":983},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":988,"slug":989,"category":538,"order":990},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":992,"slug":993,"category":339,"order":990},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":995,"slug":996,"category":538,"order":997},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":999,"slug":1000,"category":339,"order":997},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1002,"slug":1003,"category":538,"order":1004},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1006,"slug":1007,"category":339,"order":1004},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1009,"slug":1010,"category":538,"order":1011},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1013,"slug":1014,"category":339,"order":1011},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1016,"slug":1017,"category":538,"order":1018},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1020,"slug":1021,"category":339,"order":1018},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1023,"slug":1024,"category":538,"order":1025},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1027,"slug":1028,"category":339,"order":1025},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1030,"slug":1031,"category":538,"order":1032},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1034,"slug":1035,"category":339,"order":1032},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1037,"slug":1038,"category":538,"order":1039},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1041,"slug":1042,"category":339,"order":1039},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1044,"slug":1045,"category":538,"order":1046},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1048,"slug":1049,"category":339,"order":1046},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 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